over throw.. no
offer a extra choice.. yes

governments will still keep THEIR product(fiat/CBDC) in power. with laws like minimum wage/tax/court fines and debts
however people will have more choices

anything where a company of any kind is too eager to say "yes we accept your money" but then does not allow redemptions/refunds and say "go find another fool to take the shares off your hands.." is scammy, well not really a good service to trust atleast

heck even the ETH merge became awful by letting people easily stake. but then not having code to unstake where users have to find other market methods to swap between themselves while stuck in stake
(oh await the price bubble correction when unstaking code is activated, ETH price is too inflated bubble for its new 99% lower base bottom value due to becoming PoS instead of PoW costing)
....
if say years ago any CEX allowed fiat deposits to buy BTC. but didnt allow trading-out to get fiat back out from same CEX. ..those CEX would look more scammy
..
when madoff done his ponzi where he didnt allow redemptions. he could have easily avoided alot of prison by just telling his customers to trade share ownerships amongst themselves if they wanted to exit whilst still allowing madoff to refuse to offer redemptions direct

other things you will learn if people actually try to read things and research things from actual sources like BIS hyperledger

most CBDC are acting similar ways to mainnet+layer2.. because its the friggen banks and institutions that first buzzworded "layer 2" when they were doing hyperledger conventions/conferences inviting devs of crypto in to help them and the devs walked away with new words to start then sandbox testing in crypto(back in 2015 era)

also the BIS (bank of international settlements) is due to central bank demands allowing(proposed in draft) a 2% collateral holding of mainnet cryptos like eth/btc and a higher unset % of stables
meaning those central banks that use BIS will be lobbying government to not ban crypto
https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d545.pdf

knowing how much money went through bitcoin is impossible

watching exchange trade volume is meaningless. someone can arbitrage the same 1btc in a multi currency hop loop multiple times to multiply volume

looking for exchange deposit and withdrawals dont correlate to actual market order listings/exchanging. it can just be custodian holds for a different time/price

comparing satoshi's stash of 1m coins at $0.001-$0.01each to say all of michael saylors trade dates of his 135k coin.. to say grayscales trust deposit dates. brings such a random average that it becomes meaningless of any precise figure that its not even worth trying to gather such known entities acquisitions

using UTXO age does not correlate to peoples fiat trades, its just their wallet shuffling dates which could be movements for a variety of reasons and not trading against fiat when utxo dates move

and no before you dare suggest it. no market cap is not a representation of some hoard of fiat.. its just a math number of a single order of any amount calculated /multiplied against all coins of circulation. totally meaningless

CBDC is the same policies as fiat. same delegated roles of financial institutions(commercial banks/payment services policing customers)
same suspect reporting same court order seizure system.. and yes that includes china's e-yuan

yep china has not nor is nor will be a "one wallet one app" system. unlike what certain people probably heard on their trump favouring news media
yep some of you are mind blown.. right? itsing to press the reply button that franky is wrong coz "fox news said"
well sorry to burst your nightmares..  china has never and is not preparing to be a one bank, one app system

it really does pay to do research away from social circles and certain media circles

and no there is not a "CBDC online balance expiry dates".. there is however,idea's /theories to include, as a backup monetary system.. a physical coupon as a backstop for remote locations with bad internet/electric to still allow people to trade offline.. during communication outages..

take canada's explanation
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/swp2021-67.pdf

in short those coupons will be smart cash. where if its not deposited back into an app after X months. its not declared lost. its just cancels the coupon validity and the value returns to the last known recipient, obviously giving people plenty of time to claim/mark the new recipient to refresh the expiry and keep the coupon in circulation

with each challenge comes an opportunity. using a canoe, going door to door selling snacks, essentials to those who cant get out the house to go grocery shopping

emergency charities make a fortune on bottled water (if you flip a donator to the customer and a trapped resident as the bottle receiver)

you would be surprised how much money churns and gets spent when crisis occurs

DCG is from just after 3rd feb planning(suggesting a plan) to spend $1.2b to buy back 20% of GBTC shares ant share price(not btc conversion rate). which then allows grayscale to unlock 20% of btc($2.4b of btc) from the trust which grayscale (dcg) can then use however they like

either to keep half of the freed btc(so $1.2bill of btc) in the trust to then re-jig the remaining share conversion value to be less "discount". and still have enough spare btc to then offset the loans

we shall see what plays out after feb 3rds SEC court of appeals response to the grayscale ETF appeal

---

BTC "surge" from decembers $17k flatline to this weeks $23k flatline.. not really a surge.. but anyways
is not related to any of corporate social dramas.. of their end of year tax shuffling antics to show losses

its whale traders on futures markets gamble betting prices remained below 17k december and 23k this week. so they are using separate small investment of wash arbirtraging trading spot market using a bot.. to cause a resistance wall to keep prices down. once their december bet won. the released that whale spot bot resistance allowing some free trade movement up. and then put in another whale spot bot to trade the market down below $23k

there is no over population nor food shortages. there is just the society decisions of the elites .. and waste

if people just had a well balanced diet of meat and a variety of veg. in 3 meals. they can sustain themselves

issues are that instead of growing a whole tomato to eat as a tomato, where only a  tomato is needed as quarter of a plates content.
we instead use more tomatos wastefully to blend into a liquid with lots of other ingredients. boil out the excess water into a paste add in some other ingredients again.. just to then have ketchup

yea a couple spoons of ketchup are not as nourishing or as filling as just a few slices of tomato
yet a couple spoons of ketchup needed more then a few slices of tomato + other varied ingredients to make

if we picked just 4 types of meat and say 20 main staple vegetables or fruit. there is enough combination to make many many dishes to not feel like boring mundane eating. whilst freeing up alot of land wasted on the stuff we dont usually see

EG almond[insert many forms], palm[insert many forms] avocado[insert many forms] sunseed[insert many forms]
corn[insert many forms]

..
its funny how food charities feed 3rd world countries with just.. rice.. yep rice rice rice rice rice.. one variety day in day out
and if you were to read how many varieties of rice a 1st world country gets to choose from along with the branded stuff thats premixed with seasoning, herbs and flavours. .. then ad in all the sauces it starts to become clear.. its not a food scarcity problem its a food variety problem

while there are corners of the planet cutting away at the rainforests to make avocado spread and trying to tell people to stop buying dairy butter (bait and switch sales pitch) then the whole stop having peanut butter try almond butter gang.. al then using more land to farm almonds

its the over-choice thats the problem

my point is that those people who shout "blockchain huge" and "bitcoin not fit for purpose"
are the ones that then reference some windows vista era hardware,
you know sata 1 or even IDE cable hard drives

where we all know solid state memory is faster, even on "average" priced SSD/ micro media cards

and no. its not a opportunity to show high spec hard drive(sata 3) vs low spec microsd

yet again. revealing more about yourself then you should

yep it was you and doomad in autumn 2019 that cried to mods that your flawed opinions were being critiqued. and then you ever since been tail chasing in circles using the result of your cries as if they are proof that you are right. when all it really is proof of, is that you can cry the loudest and get mommy and daddy mod to react

get away from the social drama of tail chasing your own confirmation biases until you make yourself insane.
learn something new to break your infinity loop

its funny how you quote a mod who was getting frustrated that you lot were crying to him soo much he had to act. where by it was your social clubs cries that he was referring to

thus no facts. just a social drama cycle of your own making

try to stick to real data, not social quotes of your own causality

---

now to get on topic and explain why i just said all that. you keep failing to know causality of things, you fail to do research, plus when you mention 2023 huge surge.. expect someone to critique your opinion of a huge surge in 2023

if you just want people to agree with you. then record your voice. and play it back to yourself
this is a discussion forum. expect other opinions that differ than your own

stop trying to censor away individuality until all you have left is your echo chamber club of ass kissers

---

final lesson of the day
if bitcoin value is say $16k in january. and market PRICE(dont confuse the two) is not $17k but instead say $speculating at $22k-$50k

bitcoin is not showing "deflationary" actions. its speculating at a premium away from store of value. thus is having a bubble(inflation) which when it corrects back down to value loses people a % of their wealth rather then protecting it if it stayed at $~17k for now

yep its better to buy 2x btc at $17k each rather than 1btc at $34k
if you are looking for price rises. your not looking to see btc deflation in action. you are looking to see an exit to get fiat. which again is a sign you dint understand the economics of bitcoin and benefits of bitcoin. and you just want to see yourself with fiat riches

..
looking for one off ATH "surges" has nothing to do with bitcoins deflation. what you are looking for is temporary inflation bubbles that correct

i am definitely unique

if i was to be another crowd hugger just going with the flow of the social narrative, then thats just spam of no discussion, just ass-kissery

i do offer differing opinions when it matters most, especially when some people get stuck in some social echo chamber of details they didnt learn via researched sources, but just what some other social influencer said

EG instead of researching my opinions. for years windy has taken on the cause of calling me a liar because someone else called me a liar. and so he just circle chased his own tail into perpetual insanity of finger pointing

heres one prime example
gmax's first gripe with me was about "anyonecanspend" opcode being abused to function as the tx format trojan where he and co-devs were ademant that segwit can be soft and people can easily just start making segwit transactions with the anyonecanspend opcode without needing some hard activation of upgrading the nodes and all, nor nodes being ready to service said upgrade should it activate

however it turns out with all his cries and him staying by his beleifs until the last minute, that soft and easy to use segwit adoption he thought was true to him.. wasnt..
reality showed that it ended up needing a contentious hard activation, where unupgraded nodes would be given a stripped down version of blocks and not relayed on purpose zero-confirm segwit tx's..
and even after activation, a delay of many months until core deemed it safe to then release the wallet functionality to then make segwit transactions.. (they wanted to ensure the unupgraded nodes had enough upgraded nodes to filter the unupgraded nodes to the edges of the network. as end points. not midpoint peers)
 so they end up taking my point.. even though it must have felt like to them they were getting their head beaten to the wall before they realised it

its not about knowing everything.
its about actually giving a crap to learn things outside some scope certain people want to pigeon hole people
its about knowing bitcoin is not some self creating AI code. its made by devs
its about caring about bitcoin enough to want to learn and also review and critique those that have the power to change or add bugs into the protocol
its about not kissing ass because there are already too many sleep ass kissers, we dont need more of them

---

case-in-point
windy thinks bitcoins price is reflective of the FIAT inflation.. (facepalm)
no bitcoins market price is not about how much large money is thrown at a market

i can easily do some whale trades of large money to keep the price at the same price.. oh wait someone else is doing that most weeks (note the resistance wall of $17k in december the 21.5k wall early jan and the $23k wall those week)

bitcoins market is not dependant on all the 19m coins of circulation either

yes as a simplification bitcoin is deflationary meaning looking at the 4 year view bitcoin moves up in price and value compared to previous. as oppose to fiats inflation where every few years you get to buy LESS bread(down value) for same amount of fiat

but to suggest x=y as a exact mirror of the minutia of daily price. . nope. theres no correlation

2022 seen alot more institutional investors doing futures option on bitcoin which caused the "step down" correction pattern rather than a free market of speculation

2023 will see some stepping up but not for reasons windy heard from some other social influencer

neither!

im talking about numbers unrelated to market price predicting within the window. i was giving the scope of min:max or what the price(whereever it ends up, being within, not where it would sit at any given time
its more so saying the obvious..like: " in 2023 humans will be.. on earth"

this is about the value:premium window frame limits of the last few months.. as a 6 month window.. it has nothing to do with predicting the price by X time within that window, nor what specific location in the window the price will be.
its more so saying the limits of where you wont find the price(no humans in the deep abyss of the ocean or on mars any time soon)

as for your $10k predictions. thats a number below $15k. thus your sugesting man will swim into the abyss

so again to explain
if the many methods to acquire bitcoin. where mining is one of them has lots of sentiments of different prices independantly depends on who and how they can get bitcoin
however if you find the edge cases. the extreme ends you then know where the price wont go

the cheapest method on planet is mining in the best electric location with the most efficient hardware, where this base number cost of bitcoin is $15k
at the other end with relatively new hardware but less efficient with electric prices being highest on planet sits at $90k

if everyone can mine from home for less than $90k no one is really wanting to pay a supreme premium of $90k to get bitcoin if they can all get it cheaper via other methods(thus imagine for instance $200k as a no-go zone of silly expectation)

if no one can mine from most efficient asic farm for less than $15k no one is really wanting to sell for a loss of $15k
so thats its boundary lines(thus imagine for instance $7.5k as a no-go zone of silly expectation)

hashrate has to drop by a lot and stay consistently low for about 6 months to really affect the bottom boundary

2021 seen a window of ~$10k-$75k. and as we can now see the price healthily sat within that boundary window
2022seen a window of ~$15k-$90k. and as we can now see the price healthily sat within that boundary window

in short
the underlying non-zero boundary does increase per 4 year halving cycle and will continue to do so to support the market price then speculating above the boundary, where by within that 4 years cycle the bottom boundary moves up slowly and not as volatile as the speculating market price above the boundary

oh and electric costs have gone up since 2021-2022 so costs of the bottom boundary are in a moving up direction not down

using some basic fundamentals (no im not talking about crappy youtube influencer hand drawn historic trend line anal' lines on spot market charts)

economic facts of value:premium window
sets 2022 as a 15k-90k
window from the price "could have" moved within

no one can predict where or when within that window the price will be

however the potential is there
this means dont expect a $200k anytime soon, forget that
..

as for looking for other stuff of fundamental economics off the(retail) spot market
there are the whale traders on wholesale markets who set bets that the price remains within small margins
EG this weeks $23k

they simultaneously have arbitrage bots on the spot market to pressurise and resist the price from going too high too fast so their futures bets on the wholesale market flourish
you spot them sometime switch of the bots for a few hours to let prices peak a lil above their desired limits, this is to coax newbies into betting against them that the price will go over $23k. but they dont let it go too out of control and reign the prices back down

we seen this in december with the $17k resistance that suddenly new years day seen the resistance bots just stop resisting at $17k to allow a bit of free trade above $17k

whereby the whales set new resistances a slightly higher numbers of 21.5k then 23k

we have plenty of opportunity to move within (currently) a wide window of $15k-$90k
so don t expect crashes to $10k or speculations up to $200k
prices will(for now be limited to 15k-90k.. but from looking at the flat line resistances of 1-8 week periods. the whales want to control the price marginally in smaller movements

now your just knitpicking...

i never said bitcoin uses RSA.. it was a cracking for dummies demo
describing a RSA crack is closer comparative to a ECC crack than a sha1 crack is.

but using a known and researchable RSA crack then give a basic understanding of cracking and then can be used to base how the evolutions need to scale to get down to say 4 minutes end up costing alot more then the known lesser bit crack occured

but hey if you wanna skip the context and just play knitpick of 'he said she said', you go do that on your own in your little corner.
or
think beyond the silly social drama games and understand whats being dumbed down and used as a simple comparison to make things easier for you to then do your own research with a better basic understanding of cracking factorisation and scaling

the ball is left in your court, so you now go play and allow yourself to expand your learning

yep for years they have promoted QC as some special (sci-fi) extra dimensional gateway to other universes and traversing the lengths of the universe in microseconds.. it was not that!

but it helped delay competition while competition scratched their head for years trying to figure out the real game

QC computing is much more simpler then people think

topic title "in 2023"
topic post content "2023"


"in 2023" yet now you want to sneak out of your own timescales

also.. funny thing is all your cries for last couple years about how features activated.. seems this month you finally seen the light. and have been in a topic surprisingly saying along with a couple of your chums the exact process i was describing to you for years.

but hey. seems it took you years of crying to realise it

heck even your defenders/girlfriends blackhat & doomad are both admitting that their favoured LN is not the scaling solution and admits LN cant cope with all bitcoin utility offramps they were promoting..
and now even saying how the 2017 contentious hardfork was not about scaling (another broken promise) and all that crap.. seems they and you are quick to suddenly agree with my versions of events after all
so welcome to 2023 a fresh start

so.. like i just said in previous post
ill let time itself teach you a lesson. seems its the only way you will learn

oh
and i dont even pretend or try to know everything about everything.. thats what research is for .. TO LEARN
try it

you do not understand the reasons for the previous surges nor bothered to calculate their scales nor understand the basics of the market window of value:premium to which the PRICE pivots INBETWEEN

if you cannot even work out the value:premium window. you have no clue to then gauge how much volatility possibility the market PRICE can then have inbetween the window frame

so instead of trying to give you suggestions to then research.. which you seem to waste years ignoring until it hits you in the face.. ill leave you to let things play themselves out and let the markets teach you a lesson the hard way. all by themselves

you mention the surges of 2011-13-15-17    which range from 10x-100x
im going to say a window of 2x-10x at most

see ya next year

alot of people are still scratching at their devices wishing to say how that the blockchain is "huge" and cant scale and how blockchains are not fit for function

you know the types of people. that still want to pretend technology is in the 1990's

heres a prospective for how huge 500gb is
500gb.. double it. and then you have



its not a case of 500gb is "huge"
its that something that can secure hundreds of millions of peoples value, and 14 years history of transactions can all fit in the palm of your hand

thats barrys game though

setting up businesses, trusts and shell companies is a way a human can say "i didnt do it" by saying "it was company X"


notice when times are good he calls out how the companies are part of the group and he has offered them advice and instructions on business strategy and proposals..
when things are bad he highlights how they have their own management teams and make their own decisions and how he even as a board member was not involved in said decisions

even in his latest announcements you can see him do it
says he is not involved in genesis bankruptcy negotiations with creditors.. but then says how DCG is

he cant help himself to pretend he had no involvement but at same time be involved

https://dcgupdate.com/ - jan 20th letter
FLIP
FLOP

FLIP
FLOP

oh and by the way
https://dcgupdate.com/ - jan 10th letter
the underline sounds like "grayscale" to me.. funny how he doesnt want to direct name drop where most of DCG loan funnelled funds went to

underlying value (cheapest on planet to acquire is $15k for 2022)
this is the off-market
(spot market is retail market, off market is the wholesale stuff line mining and OTC)

the price wanted to go up in december but was artificially held down in in december by whale walling the market to chew threw any orders trying to go above $17k
this was because whales had futures bets(other platform) that price would be under $17k and they wanted to keep the retail spot market below $17k to win
as soon as they got their win at new year they switched off the whale wall bot trader
there is another one temporarily at about $23.5k

basically
open free market wouls see a speculation of $15k to 90k in 2022. but was squeezed to a
$15k -$17k manipulated window in decemmber
and a $20k-$21.5k window start of january
and a $22k-$23.5k window of mid january

i expect the whales to continue to whale order control retail spot market into small windows in step-lock of 1-8 week lengths to be able to make futures bets of same period length..   rather then far wide window of high volatility

EG       
       /^{~~~       ~~~}\                            |\  /\
/^~~~          or        ^~~~\   instead of    | \/  |