nope. you are mis-interpretting things again

do you want to learn or just rant?

ill help you learn some stuff. but it seems you might just be in a mood to rant today

you done a chart with lines on it too. just putting (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) at the elbows of the lines does not make it technical

can you explain your elbows without referencing a mart price pattern or market history.

is there any detail about 1-5 thats not market related data
is so please list why YOU chose those 5 points and explain each point and we can see if they have any foundations

or if your ok to admit your lines are just trend anals.
care to show the "other trading view profile" which you do wish to call technical analysis where you can explain the sources

BTC?

i just checked poloniex
BTC / USDT 20684.00 ≈$20705.55


i think what you are looking at is NOT bitcoin
but some altcoins/sidechain token phishing to be bitcoin

edit. seems he is talking about Sh*tToken not BTC

late 2021
el-salv president bought ~2400 of actual bitcoin
this was for "government assets"

which it would allow its citizens to claim $30 allotments of.
the problem was they foolishly used blockstreams LIGHTNING as the backbone payment network of chivo. it could not cope with that amount

which by december 2021 was showing alot of complaints about lightning bottlenecks.. they soon dropped lightning and went for a CEX to manage the backbone of operations of payments

they also wanted to use blockstreams LIQUID for the bonds project.
the issue. and still remains an issue is that the liquid network does not have $1b worth of coin on its network
it only has ~4000 (l-btc)
https://blockstream.info/liquid/asset/6f0279e9ed041c3d710a9f57d0c02928416460c4b722ae3457a11eec381c526d

this caused more delays and change of plans

so i hope el-salv is actually going to buy actual bitcoins and avoid that blockstream subnetwork crap phishing themselves as being "bitcoin" but failing to actually work for el-salv

---

the idea for the bond is.
have bonds that they can sell for $$ to commercial banks around the world to then use that $$ income to partial buy btc
and...
build their geo thermal power plant. and then mine bitcoin and give back earnings/profit to the bond holders

however the smart plan is to issue bonds to buy bitcoin. and let the bitcoin price appreciate and then use the profits from the appreciation for the power plant, and then have coins left over to keep the bond holders happy while the build is occuring. and later refill the btc pot with mining rewards..

but lets see how they play it out

values(sentiment,desires,features, benefits)
is different than
value (economic number/measure)

note the 's' at the end
bitcoins values are the features/benefits mentioned above

but what give bitcoin VALUE
is not the market PRICE

the market PRICE
is a speculative amount that bounces between VALUE and PREMIUM and tests both boundaries

to work out VALUE and PREMIUM (the window that the PRICE bounces within) you have to look at the extremes of economics

yes lots of people have their own sentiment(values) about what prices they want to see. but the overall bit coin VALUE and PREMIUM are at the extreme ends of these

the value is the bottom where after all of the sellers have sold the last and lowest anyone dares sell for. is the bottom VALUE

when all the buyers have bought the last and highest anyone dares buy for is the top PREMIUM

this value/premium window can be calculated

the cheapest way to acquire bitcoin is to have the most efficient mining hardware bought at wholesale/bulk cost. which in 2022 sat at $15k VALUE
the most expensive way to acquire bitcoin is the reason to use but extreme cost of mining. EG highest electric and retail priced hardware

this sat at $90k in 2022.. the market PRICE then moves inbetween $15k-$90k where it may not hit either of these edges and stay somewhere inbetween and is not predictable what the price may be at any time within the window

2021 was a $10k-$75k window

in short there was a reason buyers fizzled out near the top of $70k in 2021 before hitting the window edge

in short there was a reason buyers fizzled out near the bottom of $15k in 2022 before hitting the window edge

this week its still ~under $100k top premium window edge. meaning dont expect speculation to cause a $200k btc price

this week its still ~ $15k bottom value window edge. meaning dont expect speculation to cause a $10k btc price

i personally wasnt staying upto date about all the bills. as they kept getting postponed. but if they wanted a quick signing. then hopes should be, that the 'quickness' you mention.. is a sign they are going to go into a buying frenzy while coins remain cheap and dont wait out another 6 months to buy at highs again.
if they can buy cheap near the $20k area then they will reap the benefits later and that will help them accelerate their projects like geo-thermal energy and renewable mining.
which if they can become a notable amount of hashpower on the network can help strengthen the bitcoin "bottom" value to a new raised amount compared to previous years raises

2011-12   32-3  ~10x
2013-14   1200-150 ~8x
2017-18   20k-3.2 ~6x
2021-22   70k-16k ~4x

next one may correct softer, not harder

fungibility is not what you think.. why oh why is every throwing the word fungible around like its a new word they heard so must add it to as many conversations as they can

.. here is the thing.
i have a stash from 2012 i can sell it at any price from $6+ and profit
i have a stash from 2014..
i have a stash from 2015.
i have a stash from 2018...
i have a stash from 2022 i can sell it at any price from $16k+ and profit
i have a stash from 2022 i can sell it at any price from $30k+ and profit

but if i sold my 2022 stash at 2012 prices im not profiting!
so no they are not all equal and the same

even tax returns treat them differently as gains vs losses

they are not all the same in my view and treating them the same affects the value of each

---

there are people who bought in 2021 hype mania of $65k plus.. and i guarantee you their emotions and thoughts of value, taxes and desire/stress and their decisions of when to sell are not the same as someone that bought in recent months below $20k

---

oh.. and lets get into a lil thing called. tax to test your "fungible, its all the same"

imagine you got $10k from inheritance
imagine you got $10k from share portfolio
imagine you got $10k from employer
imagine you got $10k from personal loan
imagine you got $10k from lotto win

you will NOT pay the same tax rate. becasue the IRS treats each source of funds differently even if its the same denomination/form
have a little think about that

do you treat the conditions of receiving $10k from an employer. the same as a personal loan.. no. they are different

a merchant receiving bitcoin for goods pay s a different tax rate than a investor withdrawing from an exchange
have a little think about that

and like i said someone mining or investing coin from 2012 has a different value/taxable gain than someone that mined/invested in 2022

however my coins from 2012 are able to be sold in 2023 at the new mined coin rate of $15k+ not the old mined coin rate of $6

---

bitcoin 2009-2014 WAS defined as property where 1btc:1btc was a main premiss
however since legally being declared a currency(circa 2014).. everything changed. regulators now step in and delegate businesses to watch customers deposits and withdrawals and transfers . and treat each differently

currency is not "fungible" in a boolean expression of yes or no. currency is "fungible" on a scale/rating with different categories

i see alot of darknet shady people abuse the "fungible" "1btc:1btc" narrative. not out of common sense or logic. but out of pure malicious intent to con and scam innocent people out of their 1btc, so that a malicious user can hand them their DIRTY 1btc, while the malicious users takes the clean coins

the funny thing is these silly dirty malicious people shouting "fungible". know its not. else if it was "fungible" they would have no need to be using/promoting/creating these mixers, tumblers, AEC's

they know their coins are dirty and will be treated differently which is why they play these games on others.

if everyone can see the pattern, everyone ends up acting before the pattern repeats. this act before the pattern repeats then breaks the pattern.

thus making watching for patterns useless.

if everyone can see a historic trend of people being slapped in the face, modern people know when to duck. thus breaking the face slap pattern

if there is a expectation of a high this year(compared to last). more people will be ready to sell. which counter-acts the natural pattern buys. thus less of a high will result

lines on charts are not technical analysis.. its being a "trend anal"

there is far superior ways of calculating bottoms outside of the spot market using real technical fundamentals of bitcoin real data

when it was $30k mid 2022 it had good support due to mining.. then mining got more efficient and hardware cheaper that summer pretty quick meaning they could sell 2x cheaper and still profit

we are now in the era of higher electric compared to last year and mining farm electric contracts of 2021-22 are going up, (their contracts last 6months-2 years) so expect costs to increase (as long as hashrate doesnt crash)

the bottom is set. it still sits at ~$15k and the speculative market could test that again
i dont see it going below that again(unless multiple months of hashrate being below 2022 levels). its set and tested well, but the price can come back down to/near that again.
but chances are lower than q3-q4 2022 now the $17k resistance (top for period) has gone

the speculative market was held artificially below a $17k top resistance by some futures traders wanting their new years $17k limit contracts to expire at new year.
and now they have removed the resistance to free speculation to trade above it.

however too early to call "bull"
last year saw resistance also at $22k $24k $32k $42k $52k
so we have to see where the next resistances(tops for period) come
(at time of posting: last 7 hours see an artificial flatline of <$21k .. this could be the next resistance if it doesnt break through soon)

as for market cap number.. its a meaningless number. dont put any emotion or thought into it.

Scarce:
occurring in small numbers or quantities; rare.  insufficient for the demand.

sorry but 8billion vs 2,099,999,997,690,000 shareable units
do the math 252500 units each

oh and please FOR ONCE go look at the blockchain data.. the immutable data that even i cannot change!!!
(its not a fantasy. so even you can view it. they even make tools to make it easy for you to view it)

the bread starts off sliced.. its the slices that the bitcoin blockchain counts..
calling it a loaf.. is a separate OFF blockchain thing of a graphic user interface to combine slices.. for easy visual display

the pizza is already in wedges
the gold is already in dust form.
its not about breaking up or cutting..

block rewards 2009-2012 released 5000000000 units per block.
check the numbers
hex: 12A05F200
binary:100101010000001011111001000000000
amount: 5000000000

block rewards 2012-2016 released 2500000000 units per block.
check the numbers
hex: 9502F900
binary:10010101000000101111100100000000
amount: 2500000000

block rewards 2016-2020 released 1250000000 units per block.
check the numbers
hex: 4A817C80
binary:1001010100000010111110010000000
amount: 1250000000

block rewards 2020-2024 released 625000000 units per block.
check the numbers
hex: 2540BE40
binary:100101010000001011111001000000
amount: 625000000

the pattern.. but not the prediction:

2011 up(ATH)
2012 down
2013 up(ATH)
2014 down (below '13 , but up from '12)
2015 up from last(below '13, but up from '14)
2016 up from last(below '13, but up from '15)
2017 up(ATH)
2018 down(below '17, but up from '16)
2019 up from last(below '17, but up from '18)
2020 up from last (up from '19)
2021 up(ATH)
2022 down(down from '21 , but up from *20)
2023 up from last (down from '21, but up from '22)

Q3-Q4 of 2022 was testing the bottom
but this rise in the new year is too early to call out "bull"

remember there was also resistance at ~$22k and ~$25k and ~$32k and ~$42k last year. so we may hit resistance again at these/some other number WAY below 2021 ATH

or easier to term:
bitcoin supply CAP(ceiling)
fiat debt canopy(it grows)

bitcoin production rate (halves per 4 year until it cant half anymore, at which point is the supply CAP/ceiling)
fiat money(debt) print(continues and varies but never stops)

EXCUSE ME!!

fiat is starting to out promote crypto
i can "faster payment"(wire) fiat from UK to europe in 15 seconds for ZERO FEE
and in amounts of more then £584($715)

oh and 8 years ago.. bread cost me £1 it now costs me $1.50
car fuel cost me £1.10/ltr it now costs me $1.45/ltr
milk cost me £1 it now costs me $1.60

that is not 4.5x.. so dont blame inflation!!

---

the bitcoin scaling wars were about the era of 2015+
that the $0.26 was TOO much. when considering a WORLD currency outside the mindsets of "first world"

i too am a first worlder with coffee being just $£1.50 thus to me in my little corner of the world its not "much"

however to billions of people thats a days wage if nor more than a days wage.
have some prospective outside of a corner of the world and see the whole world picture

the promises of the scaling debates was to get to "micropenny" status.. which even LN is failing at

your "its cheap" is just saying bitcoin and LN is "cheap" for only the elite countries of the world
..

so all the promises of crypto-development competing against fiat. have for the last 8 years of patiently waiting for these "promises" of sub penny transactions.. have not flourished

..
oh and please dont then say silly ploys like "well if you wait for a weekend evening to make a tx and are happy to wait 48 hours to confirm you can pay X less"
is not an ideal offering to even suggest, when reality is "good money" should be efficient

its like a commuter trying to get to work(weekday-daytime!!).. in 2015 being told train tickets will get cheaper..
then 8 years of waiting are told train tickets are 4.5x more then the "promise" era
and being told "dont worry if you want cheap train tickets take the weekend 'red-eye' train" which is useless for a working day businessman wanting same day train transport
or "here take this plane ticket(other transport(network))" .. (where the airport terminals, rubways and destinations are not always open compared to always open train destinations)

#prospective

---

if you want to suggest "nothing need to be done" about bitcoin fee's and just say bitcoin is unfit for X corner of the world.. you are promoting centralisation

"sorry india and africa, these day time commuter trains are not for you. we only want them to work for the yanks.. you need to take the weekend red-eye train" Pfft.

2015            2023
$0.26           $1.14

thats a 4.5x multiple

oh and $1.14 is only "cheap" for a "first world" guy... but a whole days salary for a billion plus people in other countries
#prospective


lightning can only handle about $715 payments across route at best(check out the average channel capacity($1430) / 2 users) do the math

also average "fee per sat"

0.000023 sat/sat
$715 = 0.03421052 (@$20.9k/1btc)(time of posting)
fee =78sat = $0.016
now multiply that per hop

yep LN is 1.6 cent per $715 spend PER HOP.. but if you are moving upto 5 hops it becomes $0.08
(average channel per node of 9 = average 5-6 hops to reach all user nodes of LN)

bitcoin 2015 allowed people to move any amount for a max of $0.26
bitcoin 2023 allows people to move any amount for a max of $1.14 (expensive for billions of people)

LN.. a separate network costs about $0.08 at a $715 max realistic spend of reaching anyone on the network
which is already more then the "micro fee" promises of "sub penny"

your gripe about the "mention re-org/roll-back"..
before sweating under the collar or stressing yourself out anymore beyond today(its not healthy for you).. check it out. it was social drama of mis-quoting. which led to maybe 8 hours of social drama before being squashed(in reality)..
a re-org didnt happen and if you listened to the whole AMA you would hear more then you are stressing yourself over.
CZ didnt come up with the idea and same day CZ said he understands implications and same day said it wasnt happening..
and so you should, knowing all real quotes..  not be 4 years later having a gripe over a non event.
however by taking some out of date misquoted social media of other people quotes, not involved in that days AMA as your source, where you instead of finding the source AMA and same day tweets.. you dont have the full context of the true events as they played out. and that is causing you 4 years after such social media drama to still be emotional about a non-event.. based not on CZ actual words but some other persons interpretations which you took as gospel

secondly.
finances/currency are not the same laws as property.
if you can learn the differences you will know that under the bank secrecy act. currency has no privacy compared to property.
bitcoins main issue was being legally recognised as "currency" in ~2014 instead of its "property" characteristic in 2009-2014
it was that categorisation pivot that allowed in regulation and thus supervision of funds entering businesses

..
as for the "part of it is probably discretionary as well. they could flag someone for any reason whatsoever."
the regulators have a easily google-able handbook/policy guide on their flags.

yes a business can add its own flags below the thresholds of needing to SAR report to authorities. but a regulated exchange cant just lock users away from withdrawing it unless certain legal processes are done. otherwise the business gets fined/prosecuted
yes businesses can secretly investigate and not inform its users of such at lower thresholds and using more indepth methods than a regulator prescribes.
and this again is related to the bank secrecy act that treats currency different than property

lastly.
you keep mentioning "fungible" like a yes or no. rather than a scale.

if a grocery store deposited its days takings into a bank where 1 bank note of 1000 is "dirty"/counterfeit not much is asked, no eyebrows are raised. if anything the store owner might be advised to double check bills are not counterfeit by upping their UV pen/light usage of checking bills, becasue the bank rejects the 1 note. costing the business 0.1% loss (yes banks do lose value if accepting counterfeits. and yes banks do check and penalise)
if high % of bank notes deposited are dirty/counterfeit. the authorities then get a report where the grocery store is being investigated for being a laundering "front" (plus the grocery store gets penalised for it by having its deposit rejected to that % amount)

there are rules involved in regards to money. there are thresholds
there are checks and validation processes done.

if you think that fiat is so open and free to use and unlimited.. why do you think people hate fiat and prefer bitcoin.. because fiat has too many rules.
if fiat didnt have rules there would be no need for bitcoin

bitcoin 2009-2014 had very very few rules if any legislatively..
bitcoin 2014-now has more legislative rules. which is where people are now hating all the crap about CEX monitoring users

as LN gets more popular. it then requires each node to then have more channels(to avoid centralising to only partner with "hubs""factories" to ensure they have route exposure to may payments
more channels=more open/close sessions unless people "lock up" for lengthier periods and not close each day/month/year

the altnets business plan is to take people away from using bitcoin and not return for a year.

LN is a flawed sub network and not even one that is locked to only function with bitcoin. its lack of protocol/monetary policy security makes it just a silly niche service for silly small amounts.

yes other new subnetworks will flourish and offer a better monetary policy with value security. but LN isnt it

yep more transactions per block = less users pay individually..
if miners desire $2k / block in total fees. at 2000tx a block =$1 a fee
if miners desire $2k / block in total fees. at 8000tx a block =$0.25 a fee
and simply removing the cludge of "scale factor" and "weight".. and go back to practical real bytes and mb's to allow full (new rule) 4mb space can then allow 8000tx. without much hassle

as for fees formulae
instead of everyone bidding on "highest wins"
a fee formulae can be introduced and can be enforced(yep code can do that.. because yep its code)
whereby someone spamming blocks with UTXO spends of under 1day age pay higher fee to "win" compared to a UTXO that is older that can pay a lower fee to "win" thus solving and penalising the spammer only and not the normal people
thus removing the nonsense spam to allow more normal peoples tx to take that spot in a block thus more utility

EG
current height -  tx input utxo block#=age. if age < 144 blocks. then fee * X (where X is multiplying factor)

the beautiful thing about code (in a consensus network with block rejection mechanisms) is that code can create rules and enforce them. whereby if a "spam" tx is being allowed where its fee is not substantially bigger then older tx average fee. the block gets rejected thus makes mining pools pick tx's more correctly based on code aka rules thus not allowing cheap spam tx's

heck even without "enforcement" via rejections. just having the fee formulae code in the node makes mining pools pick certain tx by default based on an unenforced fee formulae code just being in the node. (as proven by the treating of legacy as * 4)

bitcoin was being held below a wall of resistance of $17k due to whale traders of "futures" betting the price would be under $17k by new years.
so they were (separate stash) day trading the spot markets via arbitrage* to keep the spot markets below $17k so that their futures contracts settled with a win. as soon as they got their win they no longer needed to wall the spot market below $17k. and the floodgates opened allowing the price to increase without the restraint/resistance

*the cost of doing this is actually quite cheap
lets use coinbase fee's for instance


imagine you have a $500m futures bet that can turn into $1b if it wins

spot market:
so when most orders are 0.01btc for other shrimp/minnow traders
and a whale keeps 'taking' at just 0.1-2.2btc per order/multiple orders(then arbitrage cycle) per 0.1 second to control and out perform the shrimp
their fee is 0.05% of 0.1btc x3(arbitrage)=0.15% total fee per trip per allotment/order cycle
=$0.85 fee of 0.1btc per 0.1second
=$8.85/s
=$510/min
=30.6k/hour
=$734k/day
=22m per month

spending 22m to enforce a wall for a month to get a $500m bet to 2x by decembers end is cheap