bulls and bears are declared 6months after the fact... meaning its a retro active term..
much like inflation and recession are only officially announced 6 months after the up or down.

however people dont have patience and so they want to shout bull and bear too quick. thus when they get it wrong they say that it was a false bull..

actual fact is they were too impatient and want to call out things before the defined terminology meets its criteria

thus its the callers, shouters, screamers. with impatience that are the trap/false declaration .. not the market

people shouting bull or bear the day they see a rise or fall are just idiots

i dont think you understand the math

lets use the announced (yeas ago) RSA 768 'crack'
(to easy display the magnitudes needed to get from a 2 year crack to under 4 minute crack(if all went well and budgets of labs were unrestricted)

RSA 786 takes one binary pc trillions of years natively without any special treatment
but factoring in some efficiency algo's and other things. they can get it down to under 600 years on 1 binary PC

 and creating an algo to use ~300 pc's(288pc of 64bit = 18432bits) brings that down to a couple years
then


its not simply going from 64bit to 65bit to 2x factor the efficiency(2 gates per bit)

its not simply going from 64bit to 128bit per PC to 256bit per PC to 512bit per PC to 1028 bit per PC
meaning its not 4 evolutions of binary cpu architecture to get down to a 45 day hack in a single PC

its buying/creating 300pc's of 64bit pc's(plural) for 2 year test
then 600 pc's of 64bit pc's (PLURAL) for 1 year test
where they only had the budget to buy ~300 PC's(~$100k) to prove the 2 year crack experiment. and not over $20billion to prove they can do it in 4 minutes

---

now do the same math of quantum to get from 8 hours to 2 minutes in a factor 4gate logic

and then do the math of how many QC's are needed
oh.. and once you do the math. realise that simply making multiple QC's of 2048qubit still has algo problems of syncing all QC together to get such efficiency factor

and then. final task. work out the total cost of all them QC's synced together

oh one last thing. if you still dont get it yet
most of the efficiency is not just native bit/qubit counting
its mulltiplying the amount of whole machines and also having the right algo's to make it all work.
and having other efficiency algos such as shor and schnorr to cut down on that time too

oh and a reminder. the new tx format uses schnorr already. so a QC cant schnorr a schnorr, thus it cant use schnorr to gain trick efficiency if a bitcoin format is already using it to stay ahead

thus p2tr is already an efficiency stage ahead of QC making it less easy for QC to break p2tr compared to p2pkh

so once you can compute all that.. sit back have a nice day

the thing about job removal and job creation where people fear AI.. its not the AI fault

here is a question for you
who decided that people need to be away from home for an average of 40 hours a week to be a flatline "full time"
why cant "full time be 25 hours" (5 hours a day)

thus allowing more personal time to raise the kids and enjoy life in a fair work life balance

in 24 hours people sleep ~0 hours (15left)
in 24 hours people eat  ~1.5 hours (13.5left)
in 24 hours people use bathroom  ~0.5 hours (13left)
then minus off the 8 hours of a 40hour week (5 left)
where 1 hour is usually commuting to or from work (4 left)
if you include a bit of time to wake up and get your bearings in the morning ready for work, or get home from work and switch your work mind off (3left)

leaves just 3 hours personal time out of 24(or more precisely out of 13 hours awake and ready to live life)

working say 5 hours is a more fair work:life balance

if minimum wage based on cost of living is $10 an hour based on a 40hour work week to cover essential bills
then a LIVING WAGE would be $16 on a 5hour workday

dont be so sure on that either. the central banks are actually negotiating with the BIS to be allowed to hold some bitcoin for central bank trading internally(their banking sector wholesale markets between each other) by 2025
https://www.pymnts.com/cryptocurrency/2022/bis-sets-limits-on-bank-exposure-to-crypto-markets/

yep central banks couldnt by BIS policy hoard or trade bitcoin internally before due to BIS terms.. but they are pushing the BIS to allow it.. initially CBDC wanted 5% buffer space of possible collateral in bitcoin, the BIS is settling to accept about 2%(things may change by 202 when the draft becomes final policy)

it really does help to do some research from source locations like from the central bank international settlement governors that set central bank policy

you can also learn alot about types of CBDC from reading other stuff from the BIS including their m-bridge (the IMF of CBDC)

the BIS GHOS (bank of international settlements governors/supervisors) set the main rules of central banks reserves, collateral and settlements
they have a draft to allow central banks to invest upto 2% in decentralised cryptos like bitcoin. (the banks first petitioned the BIS for 5% but the BIS conceded to allow 2%). this wont become their policy until 2025. but is a sign that central banks(nations government banks) want bitcoin
(they have separate %/categories for other cryptos like stable coins)

https://www.pymnts.com/cryptocurrency/2022/bis-sets-limits-on-bank-exposure-to-crypto-markets/

should have bought a generator.

if a hospital cant sue an electric company.. a hospital instead realises lives are at risk and invests in a generator back up

also poultry farmer should think about he area he set up his farm and its reliance on resources of that area
a farmer of wheat wouldnt set up in the desert after all, where water is not reliable

---

unless the power company COULD produce electric. but simply decided "nah not today, lets go on vacation instead" then they are liable. especially if a farmer pre-paid their bill to get power for the month, but didnt receive it. as thats a breach of service agreement

CERTAIN jobs can be taken over by bots and robots

for instance "call-centre staff"
instead of needing a human to talk to a customer and check if an item is dispatched or to process a refund/manufacturers repair delivery pick-up, a bot can take over this role

yes bots try do do the silly webchat FAQ already, but this will increase where chatGPT can answer more sophisticated questions customers have concerns of. where an AI could actually be programmed to interact with customer accounts and dispatch and company warehouses and stuff to automate more of the "customer service" side of a business

the next evolution is obviously the text to speech. where by a call centre can tell the location of a customer and adapt its voice pattern to match the accent and dialect of the customer.

---

it will see robots do more of the conveyor belt manufacturing(the repetitive jobs)
heck we can even see robots doing brick-laying on real estate developments

burger flipping at mcdonalds.
and car manufacturing(already so in the majority)

but when it comes to more skilled work where people need to think outside of the box, react to unforeseen changes, humans reign supreme..and thats because they have SKILLS and training that are there to aid their out of box reactions to unforeseen events

(note: colleges that train people to do mundane repetitive jobs that require no thinking.. is not really college/university worthy training.. basically if you have a diploma/degree in mcdonalds burger flipping. you have wasted 2-4 years of your life)

..
bots and robots only thrive when they are able to work within a finite amount of variables they can control. in the real world there are things where new variable comes into play and changes the dynamic of a task. and thats where humans will thrive

i feel that robots will be great at cleaning toilets. leaving people more time to get a real job changing the world. rather than staying within limits/constraints of small menial repetitive tasks

but lets play scenarios..

in a world where bitcoin is common and allowed
countries with higher electric will not be mining centres of industry.
these countries will try to accumulate coin via investment spot market and also through retail acceptants via merchants/supermarkets/businesses

counties with low electric will become mining centres where majority of accumulating coin will be via mining and less so from market investment and merchant acceptance

this is becasue if they can mine in say norway at $17k/btc and hawaii at $90k/btc

norway wont want to local-domestically use btc at supermarkets at $17k local value rate . because retailers will want to  sell goods at the $17k area as thats its local value... so you wont see many miners want to spend btc locally if they can sell their coin for higher on international exchange speculative spot markets

hawaii cant mine so they will buy cheaper on speculative spot markets and then happily use as currency domestically in supermarkets knowing their mining market sees bitcoin worth upto $90k but able to buy products for less than this and supermarkets happy to accept less than this

correct

to refine your point

being legal tender mainly means its treated as a currency which means a nations government can apply its currency laws to it. this means they can then regulate it

yep bitcoin 2009-2014 was defined as private property. much like for instance pokemon cards that could be swapped without hassle from government intervention.
as soon as countries declared it a legal currency. government stepped in with their regulation of businesses/services that were swapping btc. by defining those businesses as money service businesses thus those businesses needed to get licences and follow policies and such.

yes you dont need to get a government to determine btc is legal tender for btc to "go global"
however the laziness of accelerating global use by being an legally acknowledged currency in a country, comes at a cost of allowing that government to underpin some rules of using said currency

"supply and demand" ?
nope its not even that.. well not the way most were taught it in highschool atleast

lets use an example
in 2012 there were 10.5m coins in circulation price was $6
according to most peoples highschool lessons of S&D if there are 19m coins the price should be lower

..
here is the thing. in bitcoin markets. forget everything you learned about fiat economics. in highschool, right?
well its wrong. becasue today there are 19m coins in circulation but the price is $23k
..
on the spot market there is speculation, and sentiment that produces a varied window of different peoples desire to buy/sell at different possible amounts

EG someone in hawaii(most expensive place to mine on planet) that are willing to buy bitcoin upto $90k a coin. and places in like iceland/norway where they can obtain bitcoin for near $15k so see no point buying it for much higher on spot market if they can mine it at that low rate

as for supply.
imagine for the last 11 years most buyers on average (shrimp buyers) only wanted to spend $400 a month investing in crypto
this does not mean the price stays the same. because the miners. getting 2x less coin per halving and also due to hash competition have even less rewards over time due to competing miners. so they are left with less coin over time to sell but with increasing costs.. . so they will sell les decimals of a btc for the same $400 average to get their costs met

yep in 2012 trades were mainly 1-1000btc on exchanges.
yep in 2022 trades were mainly 0.0001-1btc on exchanges.

its got nothing to do with total coins in circulation becasue not all coins are locked into exchange custody. nor are all coins set on market orders al being processed /swapped at same time

a spot market is a subset of a subset of a subset of coins that go towards market price at any given time

..
if you are wondering about "value" in regards to store of value where im thinking you were looking for "where is the store"

meaning if you are talking about the buzzword "store of value"
its not based on speculated sentiment of S&D of a market PRICE
nor some reserve of fiat stored somewhere to back the price

store of value is a metric that sits away from the market

ill use gold as a comparison
golds "store of value" is not some reserve of billions of fiat held somewhere to back golds spot price

golds SoV is finding the lowest efficient-ist way to acquire gold on the planet (mining) (the wholesale market(otc))
which has numbers below the spot(retail) market

golds SoV is about ~$1200 whilst the spot market is $1900
the $1200 rate is mainly the cost of mining gold at its most efficiency of the planet

bitcoin has mining costs too. which was in last half of 2022 ~$15k for most efficient mining on planet

no one on planet wants to sell at a loss of the asset they acquire. so there becomes a point where sellers refuse to sell any further down. which becomes a non-zero bottom VALUE

it would have to be a system of locking value up on both sides where if guilty you lose that collateral.
if innocent the claimant has to release his amount which is an amount that covers the legal costs

which in a blockchain system would be a low amount compared to real world court systems of legal costs

issues still arise of how to vet evidence and peers to be the jury to ensure its a fair judgement and not just a sybil attack of one side fake voting to sway an agenda

take some time to actually look into it. seems you have set your opinion and not want an answer that differs to your opinion

money inflow does not always mean increase in price.. try to realise that
here is another thing.. for every buyer.. is a seller. if you can realise that point it will clarify that its not a "inflow thing"

and again for emphasis. there is no stash of funds sat somewhere backing a cap!!!
that cap is just math. not reserves

the link about capitalisation is about total shares
the link:
its math.. not reserves

also if you have a market of 1000 shares. and market price was $1. meaning cap is $1000

a trader can just buy 1 share 100 times at $1 each and the market cap is still $1000 not $1100
because he has not moved the market price

prepare
dont hoard fiat, or you will lose value that way.
instead think about products you want to buy next year (when their price will be higher) and buy them sooner before the price goes too high

dont waste money on novelty/luxury/consumer goods that have no lengthy shelf life
EG fast food

if your kitchen white goods are on the old side and were tempted to buy/upgrade new next year, buy now before they are more expensive next year

if you do have spare funds after this. invest it in deflationary assets
but check on the positions of those assets

EG golds 20 year market window is $900-$2.1k  and is sitting at $1.9k now meaning its near the top (bad time to buy)
EG bitcoin 5 year market window is $2k-$70k and is sitting at $22k now meaning its in the bottom third (good time to buy)

to move to altcoin especially when handling more then grocery bag amounts(daily spend) is hard to do in DEX/defi without some large player on the other side of the swap to receive said swap. (and or more time consuming to churn through many small allotments)
trying to do it on a CEX without KYC is few and far between opportunities too

if you treat bitcoin mixer vs XMR swapping as a rated number of 'suspect/weirdo' number. xmr has a higher 'weirdo/suspect' level. so more reason why XMR swaps can lead to more notability

sometimes trying to hide behind walls and bushes when walking around in public, makes more people see your attempts of trying to hide.. and call you a weirdo or suspect.

trying to move lumps of $22k(1btc) is not easy in of itself and is another noticeable factor when using defi/dex
most people only wanna grab small petty amounts of fiat or swaps when using DEX/de-fi platforms
so seeing multiple attempts to move multiple $22k or $2.2k also becomes noticeable spam compared to just moving larger lumps legitimately/unnoticeably via other means

yes, there are new businesses/institutions becoming interested in crypto, correct.

but that new money does not cause the market cap to rise by "storing it"
market cap is not a reserve number..
market cap is just math..
take one order. multiply it by coins in circulation = cap

EG order 0.0001btc for $2.20 = 19m coins at 418,000,000,000

the market cap has not moved up due to institutions storing billions in some spot market custodian fiat reserve..
market cap of $418bill is not backed by $418b of fiat
the cap does not represent some store.

.. the market moved because those rinsing the spot market via arbitrage to eat up any order trying to breach a resistance wall.. simply turned off their resistance wall arbitrage bot once their futures contract on other markets finalised

yep it moved up by: not spot trading the other peoples shrimp orders trying to breach their futures bet amount
and by then switching off that spot trading bot. it allows other shrimp to speculate normally above the previous resistance wall

---

they buy coins in bulk via OTC platforms and betting on futures to accumulate and also via investing in mining. they store majority of their stash away from custodians/exchanges.

yes they may lose $100k -$500m when they also invest in crypto businesses(company shares/tokens). but thats small amounts compared to the billions they hold offline

as for taxes. they know all the loopholes for tax avoidance(legal) but yes there are some that make loophole mistakes and get hit with tax evasion(illegal)

to clear things up
1. market caps are a meaningless number. its not a sign of how active a community is nor how much funds change hands
i can create 2 altcoins. A. of 10 coins B of 1 trillion coins
A can have 20 decimals and only then needing to purchase 0.000,000,000,000,1 for just $1 i can create a market cap of $10trillion for a cost to me of $1
B buying only 0.1 of that coin for $1 can create a $10trill market cap for $1

2. it does not require whales to move the price by 5%
again markets do not need buyers to buy whole coins, a user can eat up lots of small decimal amounts to ping a market price change  EG 0.0001 for $2.20 then 0.0001 for $2.30 changes the price from $22,000 to $23,000 all for the price of $4.50

3. ofcourse for every buyer is a seller and everytime you buy you then lose that fiat value to buy again.. but.. not so true.
at a exchange with ZERO fee. its easy to then arbitrage..
fiat-btc-eth-fiat-btc
where by you can churn the same allotment of small amount thousands of times
yep with just $100 you can arbitrage it in a cycle repeated 1000 times to produce volume of $100,000
meaning you dont need to spend $100m to create $100m of market trading volume you can create $100m of trading volume with only $100k

---

now to get to the details of where whales actually trade
they trade in OTC to buy in bulk amount of coin. and they also 'trade' in futures more than spot
(OTX is like the wholesale market and spot is the retail market)

you will notice the december boring flatline of trade of a $17k resistance line that did not breach until new years day, because they had big futures contracts that were betting the price would not breach $17k during december. and to protect their bet, they were spot trading a second smaller allotment via arbitrage to rinse the market to keep the market below $17k to ensure their futures contracts hit
we also in early january seen a week long resistance of $21.500 for the same reason

when ever you see a market where instead of free flowing wiggles of the chart you see the price constantly bumping up against a resistance wall. that wall is the whales eating up orders to stop natural small shrimp buyers from pushing the price above a certain level

grandma's body 6foot deep with a tombstone marker of where to dig.... is not really a deterrent if the treasure is worth enough(grave robbers)

however doing a borehole of 50ft deep. is more of a deterrent. and also cheaper to bore and bury without leaving a tombstone marker to give away where the treasure is

just saying

note about 3:
a. getting local permit to exhume a relative from their grave
b. to get the grave exhumed
c. to then put metal under their coffin
d. re-bury the coffin

and you call that less of a pain in the ass compared to printing some PDF or saving PDF to some USB sticks ?

seems the topic creator has not read the other quantum risk topics..

so here goes

P2PK is at risk. so its advised dont use P2PK(especially with large tempting amounts you dont want to lose)
also when spending funds on any format. it reveals the PK.. so dont re-use the addresses of any formats after spending them. generate a fresh address to receive change and future funds. and make the one you spend obsolete

---

satoshi (whether he realised/intended to do it or not) left a huge stash of coins over thousands of p2pk address. and a few of them (atleast one) is a used and re-used address..
.. setting up a good testing ground/challenge of "try and attack it if you can" as a security test. which so far for 14 year no one has stolen his stash

if a company with a multi billion dollar system was to waste days (yep still days) reverse-engineering Public-Key to private. then the reward would need to be worth it.

so 1 address of 50 coins.. maybe not even be good enough($1m in comparison to the machines cost. is small fry*)

however there is currently at time of writing this a more worthy address to target should a QC try:
1LQoWist8KkaUXSPKZHNvEyfrEkPHzSsCd   124,347 BTC (worth over $2bill) is a re-used address, ripe for the picking

and so if QC was to try. i would see them try it on this address, to be worth their time and effort and to really scare the community

however expect them to then be getting knocks at the door by the FBI

so all in all dont worry about your small amount coins. especially if you atleast practise "dont re-use addresses"

*but if a QC business was to do it.(they wouldnt) but if they did. they would quite quickly have the FBI knocking on their lab door seizing their hardware