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4301  Economy / Economics / Re: Everything you wanted to know about ES Volcano Bond and were afraid to ask! on: January 08, 2023, 03:51:20 AM
there is no point setting aside $166m, hoping for a 6x in the following year.. to get to $1 billion..
but instead see it shrink to $40m where some people think 'well he should get started on building by selling the coin to start construction, if not then he failed to meet promises'


instead the obvious/smart thing is buy some more coin while cheap.. and to wait for the set aside budget to get to $1b .. and then do the project


separate from the bond stuff

the chivo project of sept 2021-jan 2022 WAS NOT BITCOIN
it was the crappy flawed subnetwork phishing bitcoins branding.. called lightning
lightning failed el salvador citizens

the guy from strike pretending he was offering chivo a bitcoin solution without the blockchain
bitcoin is on the blockchain, bitcoin never leaves the blockchain
the strike guy was actually highlighting 'lightning this'.. 'lightning that'.. 'lightning is bitcoin'... 'lightning is chivos btc'  meaning he was calling LN bitcoin in september and praising it . but by january they were saying "bitcoin failed"

malicious lot of idiots in the lightning crowd
fast enough to rip off reputation. but even faster in absolving themselves of responsibility, shiftng blame to say bitcoin is broke..
4302  Economy / Economics / Re: Soaring fertilizer prices could see millions more undernourished on: January 08, 2023, 03:27:44 AM
solution to war

thunderdome
let the 2 presidents of waring countries PERSONALLY enter a cage
2 may enter 1 may leave

if 2 presidents want a fight.. let THEM fight not their citizens

wars happen because presidents decide they want to fight. but hide behind their silk ties and wooden desks telling others to fight for them.

if they want to propose a war.. they should 'reside' (occupy) in the war
4303  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin developer @lukedashjr's wallet was hacked on: January 08, 2023, 03:20:13 AM
its funny to say "but HD seed do XYZ"
his funds were not on HD seeds. so mute point

if funds are on hd seeds then yea skip the advice about change addresses.
but if funds are on legacy, then you have to manually spend all value to 2 addresses(1x destination for amount to want to spend and 1x yourself in a new wallet for the change) ensuring change doesnt go to same wallet thats on the online computer

meaning when its time for a legacy hoard to upgrade wallet to HD he will need to do as i just said

you cant just re invent the past and pretend he had a HD seed.. he didnt.

i dont even like luke JR for numerous reasons. but still i wont re invent the past to give more reasons to say he done things wrong because he had access to XYZ before events

at most all i can say is when he done the spend in september. he should have used that opportunity to move it(like i suggested) to a new wallet that was airgapped.

4304  Economy / Economics / Re: "Prepare for defation in 2023" on: January 08, 2023, 02:46:09 AM
as for the windfuryism that he thinks there will be an event of a 60x (2015:$333-2017:$20k) in 2023..
he is mistaken by about a 10x (meaning expect a modest 6x max instead, if the right speculative triggers are pulled)

there were 3 events in 2016 and 2017 thats caused the price of 2017 to be 60x higher then 2015
and those 3 events over a 3 year period.. which are not going to happen in 2023

(2015-16)firstly mining transitioned from a 1.2thash(s5) to  14thash(s9)
(2016)then there was the halvening.
(2017)then there was the speculation of the protocol change and late re-valuation from halving costs

none of which similar events are really things to have happened or about to occur in 2023

when you look at the value premium window of underlying bitcoin trade window of $10k-$75k 2021
2022 sees a $15k -$90k potential of trade speculation market window

so unless hashrate becomes extremely alot more then it is now to stimulate people wanting to buy bitcoin above $XYZk
most people wont want to buy above $100k based on current value window

yes we might see a potential speculated amount somewhere in the $15k-$90k zone if the right speculation triggers occur. meaning maybe upto 6x

but no way will we see a 60x of $900k in 2023
4305  Economy / Economics / Re: "Prepare for defation in 2023" on: January 08, 2023, 01:13:29 AM
here is the way i see the economics of the last year 5 years (2019-2023)

fiat inflates always.. and it did in 2019 even before certain events did during and did after. just differing rates

due to many things(2020-2021), such as people returning to work after covid, no longer subsidised by stimulus cheques and also entering(2022) a new economy of eastern europe war affecting supply chains. the fiat market swung into a new direction.. not deflation but inflation and yes it was already in inflation but a new higher direction of inflation.

businesses knew it would see energy prices and supply of produce prices rise which meant companies would need to stock pile stuff at early 2022 prices to be ready and not pay out more in 2023

to they sold all their shares stocks and investments to be cashflow heavy to stockpile their materials needed for late 2022-23

they are now in a position to just produce and start filling their pockets with sales, to then re-invest in the investments they dropped in early 2022

this will then as a sidenote, slow down the inflation back into the direction it would have gone
    //       2023
   //        2022
 / /         2021
| /          2020
//           2019
4306  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin a National Security, Not a Threat on: January 08, 2023, 12:14:06 AM
Having a lot of bitcoin on the treasury means that you would be protecting your currency and that is not a bad thing, but that is only possible if we are talking about smaller nations. USA is too big, which means they have like 30 trillion dollars in debt or something, and constantly increase the debt ceiling.

I have zero idea how other nations are fine with their debt, like they can't force America to pay the debt back, so USA just makes more and more debt, and don't care if they can't pay it back. But that doesn't mean that they could protect their money via crypto, there is just not enough money there, USA is bigger than crypto a few times over. It must be smaller nations like Argentina who are in financial trouble that should do it.

america has no REAL debt

they own the patent of the dollar, they own the mint that prints the money, they own the BOA that hoards the money, they own the treasury that creates a loan agreement with the boa,

its basically where you doodle a silly image on a piece of paper  
[$1 ° ͜ʖ ͡° $1]

and you(right pocket) say to yourself i want that its valuable,
so you put it in your left pocket, then you ask for a loan from your left pocket to give it to your right pocket and then say the right pocket then owes your left pocket

even though everything is YOU.. you owe yourself
....

the debt ceiling is not even a ceiling.. because a ceiling is a fixed structure roof..
their ability to grow the 'shelter' is more of a tree canopy not ceiling

4307  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Libertarians -- where are they now? on: January 07, 2023, 07:51:37 PM
A similar issue will come up if we look at PoW vs. PoS. We can take Polkadot, for example, where dPoS (delegated PoS) is used. Polkadot’s inflation is 10% per year and these inflation coins will go to stakers, which are already rich and will make them even richer. In dPoS such rich stakers will be able to consolidate their power, which will lead to a massive centralization over time. Rich stakers will be able to abuse it. I'm sure we'll get a big discussion around it some time later, maybe in 2 - 5 years.  Wink

side note:
i would not say rich. i would say coin heavy
elitism begets more coin holding but in pos inflation systems those coins lose value (buys less breadloaves per year)

back to the topic:
some say that chaos is ordered. no its not
chaos is random.
let's first remember what chaos is. And the simplest definition of chaos is that it represents "the perfect disorder". It's a disorder so well organized that you can see an order inside it. Does that make any sense? So, if chaos is a perfectly ordered disorder, what is the order? It is the cause of disorder. For example, we can say that the Universe, in its continuous expansion, it's just a combination of progressive disorder. But this disorder, as it expands itself, creates new orders and each of these orders can be identified with the initial order. So even inside chaos, which is disorder in its pure form, order is created. Therefore why would it be so bad for chaos to arise? All disorders will lead to new orders, in the future...


chaos is where so many random things are happening that evolution only grows out of the randomness of events colliding to create more energy than predecessor thus survives longer.
its "survival of the majority/fittest". not "you are the chosen one"

out of all the random things of PoW, timestamp servers, contracts. no one could see bitcoin coming until boom, satoshi let it all unite into a interwoven system thats unique and never seen before it

chaos is not planned or foreseen or mutually agreed
it has to take a step away from chaos to bring in a bit of unity to bring features and people together

again i dont think liberty is wild west, outlaw, no repercussions, chaos.
liberty does have some bare moral rules that all would seem acceptable etiquette. where its self governed and judged by peers. rather then hierarchical governed and judged by representatives
4308  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoiners kill Bitcoin, and governments are happy, boycott the CEXs on: January 07, 2023, 05:40:40 PM
Have a read about data brokers. It is a multi-trillion dollar industry which most people don't even realize exists.. A single data broker company known as Acxiom has 11,000 data points on 2.5 billion individuals. 11,000 data points! Can you even think up a thousand data points about yourself?

what you find is a single datapoint of say "email address". is only worth $0.0001
but some businesses want email addressess of people "aged 30-50", "male". and "enjoy chocolate"

this creates a basket datapoint value that is worth $0.02 due to it being a subgroup of a subgroup of a sub group  specific to a datapoint

its much like if you had a burger, a sausage, some onions, some cheese. and 4 condiments.
first appears to be just 8 ingredients(points) yet can be combined into hundreds of different varients of points

there are other double data points
eg one data point of: "meat eater".. is not just "enjoys meat", but also "non vegan"
eg "lives in the UK" is not just "british resident" but also "pound(£) user", "HMRC tax payer", "uses british brands"

its very very easy to create 1000 or even 11,000 data points by just knowing 110 things about someone where you can create new datapoints by combining a couple separate points into one larger subgroup datapoint
Eg "non vegan, under 30, female"

governments dont buy the random crap about if your a vegan or do you buy coffee
the FATF pay for KYC info that is supplied to them from suspicious activity. as a payment for delegating exchanges to police its customers
the tax office also as a separate agency pays for information on people of working age trading over $1k-$10k.. and $10k-$100k sub groups

governments dont care that you bought coffee using a starbucks giftcard you bought with crypto

but rival coffee companies would be interested in starbucks gift card customers.
4309  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: January 07, 2023, 05:08:55 PM
Michael Saylor, during the Pacific Bitcoin Conference on November 11, 2022 (not entirely new, but relevant, as it seems to me, Saylor's speech), spoke on possible developments in the crypto market, ways of development and formation of bitcoin, also briefly spoke about his experience and possible actions of regulators regarding crypto assets and the goals and philosophy of bitcoin.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1NSTkyiNO0



in first 10 mins he tries to say a commodity is an asset without issuer

completely wrong
a commodity is a raw item used to create other produce

wheat=bread
beef=burgers
oil=car fuel

bitcoin became a commodity in 2017 when it allowed locking value to create sub network pegged iou token/value
ethereum with its erc-20 is a commodity example too
...
from 10min-15min he talks about how ICO coins are different than bitcoin and due to things like ftx's ftt.. people are realising it
..
from 15min-20min
he talks about many different things
..
from 20min-28min
he starts salivating about bitcoins potentials of the sub networks of bitcoins potential.. but is foolishly focusing on a flawed "first example" of one
i personally dont think the subnetwork he mentions will be "the one".. its too flawed
yes bitcoin will evolve a future sub network that will allow fast 'digital dollar' ('digital cash') payment system.. but it wont be the one he thinks
..
from 28min-32min
he talks about how 2 years ago institutional brokers didnt want anything to do with it.. now we are seeing alot of the scammy bitcoin "banks" dying(ftx, celcius) and now institutional banks like meryl lynch/jpmorgan/blackrock are jumping onboard
..
from 32min-35min
more thinking from him that the subnetwork he salivates over wil be the 'onboarder' of bitcoin, though he doesnt mention how the idealogy of his subnetwork is not to onboard to btc, but its business model is to offboard bitcoiners away from btc
..
from 35min-37min
he mentions how fiats QE/inflation/printing/minting is going to help people want to get into crypto

from 37min-46min
he talks about how fiat doesnt help the normal person and the more people stick with it it gets worse as more inflation debased the value. however the more people that get involved in bitcoin the stronger bitcoin gets and rises bitcoins security, strength and value
4310  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin developer @lukedashjr's wallet was hacked on: January 07, 2023, 01:40:40 PM
it actually does not matter if its seed or legacy or multisig or segwit

if you expose any seed, wallet file, private key to a system that is hackable(online) where you probably downloaded a compromised file that contains a trojan. those coins no matter the format of the private key, becomes their
Very stupid of him to store his private keys on a computer.

The purpose of cold storage is that your keys are stored OFFLINE where it is impossible for anyone else to access but you.
When your keys are online then it is not cold storage -- it is the same thing as storing in a hot wallet. Can't believe a bitcoin dev is that dumb.

first of all cold store is a term that pre exists hardware wallets and exporting keys
for airgapped stores like hardware wallets, paper wallets and offline devises. they were just called those 3 things

cold meant home node, hot meant node on a webserver with public access
..

anyways moving on
he used a wallet to spend funds like a couple months before some hacks on his server. so obviously when they trojaned into home computer the wallets were still on PC

i know some will say "need to wipe windows/linux per spend and delete everything and start again"... but who actually does that

its like telling someone to get a new debit card each time they use their debit card for the risk of someone cloning the card.. who actually does that

.
one thing i dislike about core is how you cant choose your "change" address easily.. it just uses the current seed or the random generator to create a change address to add to current wallet in core.. .
to avoid this.. you have to instead treat it as if you are spending funds fully to 2 destinations as a complete spend of all value of current wallet/seed.. where you choose the second destination as an address of separate wallet you have not put into core/your device.
(meaning a new wallet created airgapped)

that way the 2nd destination is a wallet on a completely separate airgapped device. and no funds are being returned to a wallet that is in core when spending.

but again. who bothers to do that

some say you should take an umbrella with you all the time in case it rains.. but who bothers to do that
some say you should take an an extra shirt with you in case you get lunch sauce on one while on work break. but who does that
4311  Economy / Economics / Re: "Prepare for defation in 2023" on: January 07, 2023, 01:14:09 PM
ok quick lesson

M1=coins and notes.. this is going down
M2=coins notes and demand deposits(debit/credit cards) this is small decrease due to M1
       (counting just debit credit cards(electronic payments see a rise)
M3=coins notes demand deposits and savings accounts, money market deposits this is increasing
       (counting just a savings accounts would see a larger rise compared to debit cards)
       (counting just money markets accounts would see an even larger rise compared to savings)

money supply is always increasing. just the form and where it is can become the mystery to some

so ill reveal the secret..
less coins and banknotes but more being put in the savings accounts and money markets

money printing still occurs, people still use credit cards, people still take mortgages there is still more money being created and the supply still increases.. all you proved is less people want to mess around with paper bank note forms of money
4312  Economy / Economics / Re: WEF On Cryptocurrencies: Crypto is here to stay on: January 07, 2023, 06:05:02 AM

What you said is not wrong, cryptodon't have any application other than bump-dump for profit, in a way, it's all just a money game.
It's not a big deal to mention, if not using cryptocurrencies, there are other ways, even PayPal can do it.

cryptocurrency doesnt pretend to be a transformer, a car, a tin of vegetables or your next girlfriend.
its a currency.. yes currency wont wash the dishes for you or fill your belly
yes its a currency(money) game, not a dating or eating or playing game

but you have to ask what can bitcoin do that other currencies cant/wont
paypal is controlled by a business. they set the user agreement and policy over who, how, when, where and how much can be spent and the fees..

crypto has more freedoms
its programmable money without a bank manager or ceo

crypto currencies consensus rules are completely different model than paypal user agreements

if you think "ill just use paypal" then why does venmo exist and has more utility
if you think "ill just use dollar" then why does yuan, pound, euro exist

each currency has its own utility, some better then others, some worse

if you cant notices the differences, research it more
4313  Economy / Economics / Re: "Prepare for defation in 2023" on: January 07, 2023, 04:38:54 AM
Many economists and hedge fund managers are basically thinking we are going to repeat the 1970s. Where in 6 months we will see deflation due to a recession and what will happen is the bonds will rally along with stocks and Bitcoin because the fed will print more money.

Then it’ll be a repeat and lead to more inflation and it might be double digit this time and again fed will need to raise rates. Pretty much what happened back then. No idea if history will repeat itself exactly but most of the time it rhymes.

there is no fiat deflation

US minimum wage is not going DOWN
its just not going up as fast

products are not getting cheaper. they are just getting expensive more slowly

deflation is your income buys you more produce
we are not going through a phase where our fiat income buys more produce

@philipma1957 below
im not shocked by another "windfuryism". i expect, now that he is proven wrong yet again, he will spout some empty insult that im just making him have mental disorders and confusion

i laugh that he thinks i can cause dementia(via gas lighting) over the internet
if his mental state is so easily altered, it shows his initial mental state is problematic even without the involvement of this forum

i have no issues with people that have mental issues. but to claim victim that someone is causing it is the laughable part.

for years now i have simply asked him to do research on a topic to know the real history, facts and data. and not cry when being proved wrong..

oh and not forgetting the title.. "defation" is not even a word.
did he mean prepare for a new years diet resolution
4314  Economy / Economics / Re: A career - as an employee or a business owner which do you prefer and why? on: January 07, 2023, 04:29:28 AM
i feel that employee or employer are too simplistic of a base question of this topic..

there are 2 main business types.. commercial and manufacturing and they imply different business methods entirely
as for employees, there is customer facing vs non customer facing again different types of work

you will find in the employee category. although most of their employers revenue comes from customers. they seem to pay the non customer facing employees more than the customer facing employees.

so just blanket statement of wanting to be an employee is split decision low income facing customers and the stress, or comfy office employment with more flexitime and compensation

if i had choices. id want the back-office employee type, not customer facing(been there done that, not interested ever again)

when it comes to running a business.
creating a product is managed differently than managing retail

commerce has more variety you can control what you sell and change what you sell.
where as manufacturing has to find the niche product and at the whims of raw material costs and also finding retailers willing to display your products and your profits are controlled/limited by the retail.. aswell as products have a life cycle of limited length

 so id choose the retail/commerce business where i can control and change and keep with the trends rather than manufacturing

but overall.. obviously being a CEO pays more so ultimately business owner wins compared to employee
4315  Economy / Economics / Re: FTC intends to ban noncompete clauses that bind 30 million US workers on: January 07, 2023, 04:13:33 AM
businesses cannot compel, demand, force employers into this as part of employment/resignation exit contracts

however even with the FTC ruling businesses can bribe employees to non compete, with "golden farewell" exit deals to offer generous severance/resignation packages for those that do sign to non-compete

ofcourse they wont call it a non compete they will give it a clever name, but wil now come with an upside for employees
EG like an NDA (non disclosure agreement)
a hmm lets for demo sake call it a non emulate agreement NEA
 to not reveal company insider information, nor to copy or emulate previous employers product service.. the company wil pay 6 months salary if signed

now becomes a bargaining tool for (ex)employees which come with penalties for revealing and generosities for not revealing. rather than just a contract that has no value, forcibly signed, limiting an (ex)employee, with no upside for signing previously
4316  Economy / Economics / Re: "Prepare for defation in 2023" on: January 07, 2023, 03:59:55 AM
fiat will never deflate

recession does not mean deflation. recession is just calming down of excessive inflation
it just means reduced inflation

instead of 10% they want to still money print but at a 5% rate instead of 10% rate

going from 2% to 10 to 5 is not deflation, especially if they can then go 5 to 7 later.. where there will always be more creation

deflation is going from 50, 25, 12.5, always getting less and less than previous until there is no creation
4317  Economy / Economics / Re: Soaring fertilizer prices could see millions more undernourished on: January 07, 2023, 03:47:57 AM
We have already been suffering from this even before the invasion in Europe happened. The war as well as the pandemic only exacerbated the situation. But even without them, fertilizer here has always been expensive.

Urea, for example, if I'm not mistaken, is at least twice more expensive than in other countries. This is one of the reasons why our vegetables here are expensive. The production cost is already high. The middlemen and the hoarders and the cartels are making everything even worse. Not to mention that there are also natural calamities and a worthless government.

You'd be surprised to know that my poor country has more expensive carrots, potatoes, cabbage, onions, and other vegetables than rich countries. We're a developing country with food prices higher than in highly developed countries.

processed/manufactured "urea" aka phosphates is expensive.. but natural(organic) urea aka livestock urine. is a by product livestock farms want to get rid of for free/at cost

some farmers have efficiency methods to deliver phosphates and minerals to plant roots directly and in proportion to plants needs(hydroponics), without wastefully just spraying tonnes of it on baron fields and hope enough leaches into the soil to feed the plants(eg sometimes monsoons/floods wash away the top layers thus become a wasted task that does not feed the plants the nutrients.)

its not really a "blame fertiliser" thing. its a less than modern/efficient farming that is to blame for why some crops dont yield their full potential

getting processed phosphates used to be soo cheap due to cheap imports that farmers just bought the imports and sprayed to their hearts content. without caring about asking their nearby livestock farmer for urine/manure.

now its got more expensive farmers are not realising there are other ways, the y are stuck in their old practices of importing cheap. that they are shocked when prices go up

but.. there are other ways. i dont see a long term problem i just see a temporary transition to a new way of farming
4318  Economy / Economics / Re: Soaring fertilizer prices could see millions more undernourished on: January 07, 2023, 03:16:12 AM
there are now horticultural businesses that are completely skipping the "fertiliser"(animal/plant byproduct) stage

hydroponics is replacing the need of animal/plant by-product matter. and going straight to mineral feed

some are even getting the prices down of compost fertiliser. by diluting compost/manure in water to shake out the minerals from the compost into a potent mineral pool. to then need less compost/manure per plant

afterall why need to fill a field with fertiliser/compost to a 1foot(12 inches) depth layer, which includes the empty space between plants. when you can just feed the plants roots with 1inch of mineral saturated water
4319  Economy / Economics / Re: WEF On Cryptocurrencies: Crypto is here to stay on: January 07, 2023, 02:46:11 AM
The internet has utility, but what's the utility of crypto? Buy low-Sell high? What's the utility of blockchain technology, other than being the infrastructure for a bunch of speculative assets(Bitcoin and the altcoins)? I'm not saying that Bitcoin being a speculative asset is something bad, but I simply can't seem to find any other utility tied to Bitcoin. Privacy? Well, BTC isn't anonymous. Being a currency for the unbanked?
In most cases, you can't buy BTC without a bank account. Yes, crypto is here to stay and the scams won't crypto from growing, but the real question is: How useful crypto actually is?

blockchain utility is currency with rules. currency you can check was created the proper way, within the rules and not just randomly created from nothing outside of any logic/rule
PoW blockchains means the currency creation comes at a non zero cost meaning it creates value discovery
(no im not talking about speculative premium market that sits above non zero bottom value)

i buy bitcoin face to face, no bank needed. i dont need a bank manager to then set up joint bank accounts. nor need bank managers to set up family trust funds..  i just make multisig

if i want to transfer i dont have to give out my name, location(billing address) plus account details just to spend funds. i simply type in the destination
with fiat, banks can do deals with merchants to gather shopping list receipts(you know when they ask you to go into these cashback accounts if you buy from certain retailers) bitcoin however does not list what you bought on the blockchain.. no items no names


if i want to transfer to people i know internationally i just set the destination recipient, and its done. i dont need to worry about figuring out the different fee's per location and check if that location has a bank or western union kiosk, or having to pay a 3-way conversion fee.  i just send to a bitcoin address

bitcoin doesnt have limits of 0.06 before a bank stops payment to question why you need to transfer more then 0.06 per day

if i want to do inheritance. i can just put funds onto keys.. done

holding fiat for 5 years means the same $1m will buy me less food, drink, goods after the 5 years
holding btc for 5 years means the same xbtc will buy me more food, drink, goods after the 5 years

im not talking about the speculated market premium of random ATH. im talking about the deflationary raises of a non-zero bottom value
4320  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is Digital dollar a threat to Bitcoin ? on: January 07, 2023, 02:32:38 AM
Bitcoin's mission and purpose won't change in the slightest because of the introduction of a CBDC. The situation remains the same: the CBDC is pretty much the same as a simple dollar bill from the perspective of how it is created (out of thin air) and how it is backed (by nothing). Now some will argue that the dollar bill is backed by the strength of a national economy, but that would imply that the money printing is based on a rational relationship between the quantity of money being produced and put into circulation and the strength of the economy., but all too often have we seen a decoupling of money quantity and the economy's strength. It just doesn't make sense anymore (and probably might have never made sense, but wasn't as consequential as it is now getting more and more).

fiat/CBDC wont be backed by an underlying asset nor of "strength of national currency"
its purely backed by income/tax/court laws of maintaining that population gets paid in fiat, pays taxes in fiat and fines/debts in fiat(legal tender laws). which keeps fiat in circulation and popular by citizens
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