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81  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What Would You Have Bid For The USMS Seized BTCs? on: March 12, 2015, 08:34:20 PM
I believe that anybody that would have bid below-market or at-market rates would not have won the auction.The alternative of buying 50,000 coins on the exchanges would drive the price way up, so bidders were already willing to pay at least market rate. In fact, it is possible that the recent rise is the result of auction losers buying on exchanges.

That assumes that there are people who want to buy 50000 coins and would have to otherwise buy on exchanges.

I am pretty sure that this is a rare case.


you are being very, very kind.

I'm guessing the USMS chose the avenue they traveled expecting to get about 50% to 70% LESS than the face value of the merchandise. If they wanted face value they would have sold it on the open market little by little like anyone else seeking face value.  The also could have advertised a minimum bid of $200 so that everyone knows they want face value plus.  But none of that happened because they knew they would not get it.  Not just because all of 2014 was a buyer's market, and not because if they sold everything at the same time in the public market they would OBVIOUSLY get less in the aggregate, but because no one in with that kind of money is buying wholesale quantity at retail prices -- it's a fire sale auction NO ONE in their right mind expects to pay anywhere close to "market" value for anything at a "must sell" auction.



Actually they always got close to face value in previous auctions of BTC. So maybe they did again this time.

My point was that above market is unlikely, close below market is very likely and even 10% away from market is pretty much impossible due to arbitrageurs.



What they reasonably expected to get and what they got could be two totally different things, every blind auction is a hail mary pass; you throw it because you want it to work not because you expect it to work and when it does connect you are as shocked as everyone else in the whole stadium.

Anyone in BTC market knows values could easily swing 15% in a week and 20% over the span of a month.  So would be unwise to make a blind wholesale bid of anything close to public market value.  If all of 2014 the market trend was down, down, down; only recently did it do an about-face and go up, up, u [stuck at $299].



So, you would NOT buy a big amount of BTC in one month at -20% if you had to pay for them today, with delivery in 1 month?

Highly unlikely that I would do that arrangement.    I'd do the 20% discount for cash and carry, however, I would not do a mere 20% discount for seized goods, It would need to be a minimum of 50% discount if I get past the ethics of the matter.



That is a pretty personal reason then. Because I think most investors leave their ethics at home when trying to optimize their portfolio.
82  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Best Paying Bitcoin Faucets list for newbies :) on: March 12, 2015, 08:31:55 PM
The problem with such lists is that they are outdated EXTREMELY fast. So how often do you plan to upgrade those?

tried the first one, gave me already "insufficient funds"...

That was fast Wink
83  Economy / Speculation / Re: I have USD 2000 to invest. Should I buy Bitcoins or gold? on: March 12, 2015, 08:31:24 PM
In my opinion investing $2000.00 into gold isn't efficient because of the high price. You are better off looking at something like regular or penny stocks. With $2000 invested into gold you are likely only going to lose or gain around $100 ,take a loos at gold prices here - http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold-volatility-index-vix-futures.html - If you are simply looking for a place holder then gold is your best option for that amount of money. If you are actually looking for a decent return but with some risk involved I would suggest Bitcoin or something from this article -

http://www.wikihow.com/Invest-Small-Amounts-of-Money-Wisely

That point is true. Its is very hard to split 2000$ into gold without paying insane premiums. First you buy 1 oz and then what? halve and oz on top? Those things go for 3-5% premium.
I'm pretty sure you can buy "gold", you don't actually own gold but you get gold as a number just like a stock exchange. Correct me if I'm wrong.

If you are referring to ETFs, then you only participate in the value change of gold, you actually never are entitled to the gold the ETF holds. So unlike stocks, there is no real alternative to physically holding gold.
84  Economy / Speculation / Re: I have USD 2000 to invest. Should I buy Bitcoins or gold? on: March 12, 2015, 08:12:11 PM
In my opinion investing $2000.00 into gold isn't efficient because of the high price. You are better off looking at something like regular or penny stocks. With $2000 invested into gold you are likely only going to lose or gain around $100 ,take a loos at gold prices here - http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold-volatility-index-vix-futures.html - If you are simply looking for a place holder then gold is your best option for that amount of money. If you are actually looking for a decent return but with some risk involved I would suggest Bitcoin or something from this article -

http://www.wikihow.com/Invest-Small-Amounts-of-Money-Wisely

That point is true. Its is very hard to split 2000$ into gold without paying insane premiums. First you buy 1 oz and then what? halve and oz on top? Those things go for 3-5% premium.
85  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does martingale really works? on: March 12, 2015, 07:52:56 PM
I have tried some times and I can say I'm in loss with martingale, so it's not for me
its better to do all in on 50 % chance as doing martingale makes the house edge bigger when you roll bunch of times. i never use this strategy

Apparently this is not true. You can actually "lower" the house edge if you bet with a certain strategy other than 50% bet. There was a long discussing on previous pages.

It's not really lowering the house edge, per se, but rather exploiting the rounding of numbers. Some sites have already fixed that issue, though, and it relies on very specific sets of numbers to work even on those that haven't fixed it. With that said, it's less of a "beating the house" and more of an exploit than anything.


Oh I see. I thought it had something to do with the fact that you on average reach the goal earlier before wagering all of the 1 BTC and thus incurring less house edge.

That post I made with all the math I think has to be off. I spent a lot of time thinking about it and I don't see how raising bet amounts (without changing the % chance) could possibly affect the house edge. I just don't know where I went wrong with it...

I guess it's possible that it's correct. It just doesn't make logical sense.

Yes, it boggles my mind too. My explanation made the most sense in my head, but could be dead wrong.

I'll probably need to get in touch with Dooglus and see his opinion on this. He's pretty solid when it comes to figuring these things out and if he has time, should be able to see what's wrong.

If you get him to post an anwser, please PM me. Thank you!
86  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: How Keybase.io work?? on: March 12, 2015, 07:52:19 PM
I was assuming that he was asking about the Bitcoin addres part of it. And that part is pretty straight forward. People can safe their public key and you can look it up.

Okay! Smiley

BTC address problem isn't fixed in Keybase. People can enter fake addresses as they ain't asking signed message. Hope they will consider my request.

That is indeed a reasonable request. Considering that someone who can handle PGP signing software is also able to handle BTC address signing.
87  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Guard your Bitcoin with Stainless Steel Cold Storage on: March 12, 2015, 07:47:10 PM
Seems pretty cool. But it shouldn't be so small or expensive and they should use gold instead of steel.
Gold melts at 1,064°C. Stainless melts at about 1,450°C.

I think calme was referring to the store of wealth aspect. Physical bitcoin storage made out of gold is pretty highly demanded in the community.
88  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does martingale really works? on: March 12, 2015, 07:45:38 PM
I have tried some times and I can say I'm in loss with martingale, so it's not for me
its better to do all in on 50 % chance as doing martingale makes the house edge bigger when you roll bunch of times. i never use this strategy

Apparently this is not true. You can actually "lower" the house edge if you bet with a certain strategy other than 50% bet. There was a long discussing on previous pages.

It's not really lowering the house edge, per se, but rather exploiting the rounding of numbers. Some sites have already fixed that issue, though, and it relies on very specific sets of numbers to work even on those that haven't fixed it. With that said, it's less of a "beating the house" and more of an exploit than anything.


Oh I see. I thought it had something to do with the fact that you on average reach the goal earlier before wagering all of the 1 BTC and thus incurring less house edge.

That post I made with all the math I think has to be off. I spent a lot of time thinking about it and I don't see how raising bet amounts (without changing the % chance) could possibly affect the house edge. I just don't know where I went wrong with it...

I guess it's possible that it's correct. It just doesn't make logical sense.

Yes, it boggles my mind too. My explanation made the most sense in my head, but could be dead wrong.
89  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: How Keybase.io work?? on: March 12, 2015, 07:44:12 PM
What exactly don't you understand?

I might ask you same thing unless what you wrote was a mistake. Smiley

Its a register where you can lookup bitcoin addresses of certain people. You can search by name or social media handles.

Nope, it's a site where you can host your PGP key. You can check others' PGP keys, their social media profiles etc... It offers a simple signing/verifying and encryoting/decrypting method. Even though they are using strong method for password hashing, I deprecate hosting PGP private key there.

Pretty straight forward tbh.


Smiley
I was assuming that he was asking about the Bitcoin addres part of it. And that part is pretty straight forward. People can safe their public key and you can look it up.
90  Economy / Gambling / Re: Primedice.com | Most Popular & Trusted Bitcoin Game | Huge Community | Free BTC on: March 12, 2015, 07:41:08 PM
Works on Nexus 5 pretty good. Its not optimized but HTML 5 does a very good job anyway.
91  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Best Paying Bitcoin Faucets list for newbies :) on: March 12, 2015, 07:40:02 PM
Useful information,

Thank you!


Thanks, just updated the faucetbox faucet list with 5 brand new faucets that pay +20% more than the general average.

Also all faucets either pay to faucetbox or microwallet, so you only need to keep track of your 2 accounts at faucetbox & microwallet, and can easily use 100+ faucets in the meantime because all of the income will go to those 2 wallets.

The problem with such lists is that they are outdated EXTREMELY fast. So how often do you plan to upgrade those?

They are updated weekly or even faster if 1 faucet goes bankrupt. They wont get outdated faster than 1 week, nowadays faucets are more stable, besides only established well paying faucets are on my list.

So don't need to worry about that  Wink

Faucets are definitely not stable! Most do get outdated very fast because faucet owners don't think of the long term gains from their faucet or they dry out.

Exactly. I am not a big fan of faucets in the first place and calling them "stable" is pretty ballsy.
92  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does martingale really works? on: March 12, 2015, 07:38:32 PM
I have tried some times and I can say I'm in loss with martingale, so it's not for me
its better to do all in on 50 % chance as doing martingale makes the house edge bigger when you roll bunch of times. i never use this strategy

Apparently this is not true. You can actually "lower" the house edge if you bet with a certain strategy other than 50% bet. There was a long discussing on previous pages.

It's not really lowering the house edge, per se, but rather exploiting the rounding of numbers. Some sites have already fixed that issue, though, and it relies on very specific sets of numbers to work even on those that haven't fixed it. With that said, it's less of a "beating the house" and more of an exploit than anything.


Oh I see. I thought it had something to do with the fact that you on average reach the goal earlier before wagering all of the 1 BTC and thus incurring less house edge.
93  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Guard your Bitcoin with Stainless Steel Cold Storage on: March 12, 2015, 07:31:28 PM
I recommend to diversify types of Bitcoin storage. There is no single solution working all-in-one.

- You can printout a bulk of paperwallets and for a safety reasons keep your Bip38_password within Cryptosteel.
- You can have several copies of paperwallets in different locations, but one StainlessSteel
- It is not clear if Cryptosteel can store a Master Seed - we are exploring this right now.
- You can use a Cryptosteel as a master book of passwords
- You can store any type of sentence you desire even a poem (additional letter-cards will be also available separately)

You can burry cryptosteel, keep it in strong box or safe, but also you can build it into a wall.
If it will save even one person life time savings, I would say, I reach my initial goal.
Keep in mind numbers of lost crypto-coins.

Here is the official thread -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=977486 <-



Why does cryptosteel have "true random numbers" while paper wallets don't? You can use the same process on both, right?

It is "no-sense" the process to generate an address is *almost* the same, he cannot say "true random numbers" because also the other options have a real generation of numbers. The unique merit of a stainless steel cold storage is "fire, acid and water resistant".

So its just false advertisement?

They look cool and I am thinking of getting one after the price is released but if its close to another trezor, I would rather take an additional of those.
94  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Video: Bitcoin 101 - What is Bitcoin? on: March 12, 2015, 07:29:03 PM
How long is this video? Is it any good? Is it something we'd show our grandparents or more entertaining then that?

Are you serious? Just open the link Cheesy

About 23 minutes and I wouldn't say its grandparent material.
95  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: A simple explanation about BIP38 on: March 12, 2015, 07:19:21 PM
@ physical bitcoin coins:

The creator had to know the password at some point right? Or do you send him the privatekey yourself? Otherwise he would know the privatekey and the password, which would give him complete control if he wanted. BIP38 would be useless then.
96  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Twitter API on: March 12, 2015, 07:17:12 PM
Is there a Twitter API that auto tweet the ŽliveŽ Bitcoin transactions?

There is no direct one. But, theoretically it can be done using twitter's existing API and blockchain API. Though practically it wont work, because the no. of Tx is huge for blockchain, which is not allowed on Twitter. So, as soon as the app starts posting Tx tweets, it would be automatically banned for spamming the Twitter timeline.

This exactly.

Twitter handles that posted price updates in 1 Minute intervals got banned too! Now imagine what happens with 4-7 transactions per second Wink
97  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Best Paying Bitcoin Faucets list for newbies :) on: March 12, 2015, 07:15:55 PM
The problem with such lists is that they are outdated EXTREMELY fast. So how often do you plan to upgrade those?
98  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Dark Wallet help/query? on: March 12, 2015, 07:13:30 PM
Hi guys, can I please ask you to check this end transaction for me https://blockchain.info/address/1MyZot2SyP7zb1DVSBoSpkpUxojBgGQyg4

This is a test I did with Dark Wallet today.

I put the funds through the three Dark Wallet pockets (spending, business, saving) using the stealth address and the 5-mixer coinjoin option.

At the end I transferred out of the Dark Wallet into my Electrum wallet above.

However, I can still trace the transactions all the way back to the start via blockchain.

How is this making my transactions anonymous, anyone can still follow the trail? Could anyone clarify what I am doing wrong?

Are you sure that you mixed the coins with another user properly? Because if you are the only person using the dark wallet mixer while you mix, it won't do anything.
99  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: How Keybase.io work?? on: March 12, 2015, 07:11:42 PM
What exactly don't you understand?

Its a register where you can lookup bitcoin addresses of certain people. You can search by name or social media handles.

Pretty straight forward tbh.
100  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Bitlaundry site tech problems on: March 12, 2015, 07:09:36 PM
Problems with Bitlaundry sites--what's up?

Bitlaundry.net - constantly gives you a "session has expired" error. When you finally get past the start screen, you get a message to "send payment to this address:" ...and then it's blank! No address! So THAT'S a dud.

My preferred service, app.bitlaundry.com, is also failing. Every effort to confirm a scheme (*I really wish they didn't use that word, but...) results in a red error box that the site was unable to generate a Bitcoin address, and that if the error persists we should contact the site administrator.
Easier said than done! The site's contact email at the bottom of the page appears to be admin@bitlaundry.com, but when you click on it the *actual* email address that activates is bitlaundry@gmail.com. NEITHER address works--the gmail address they give you on their site bounces (does not exist), and the admin@ address doesn't go to anyone who responds. I'm posting here because the guy who runs that site (mikegogulski) apparently participates here too. HELP, Mike! and fix your damn contact email on your website already!

I have no experience with the site, but I just tried it and it seems to load just fine. Did you solve your problems?
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