nrd525 Market Tracker

[nrd525]

Ah ha!  Coinbase separates its transactions into "regular" and "Coinbase Pro".  If you want the Coinbase Pro you need to go to this page. It will look empty. But you need to generate a report!

https://pro.coinbase.com/profile/statements

[nrd525]

Michael at Box Mining argues that the recent huge Hong Kong conference, opened by the leader of Hong Kong, shows that China is opening back up to crypto.  He thinks the largest market cap coins (including Ethereum which has strong Chinese connections - Vitalik speaks Chinese apparently!) will be the first to benefit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGv8PWj6zCk

[nrd525]

Bullish: Glassnode youtube analysis.
Bearish: US monetary supply is shrinking for the first time in 90 years (the Depression)

I bought 1 btc at 27850.

[nrd525]

bought 1 btc at 25110

[uknowy9999]

bought 1 btc at 25110

What is your longterm strategy and price ideas for BTC and ETH (or any other holding you have)

Thanks

[nrd525]

https://cointelegraph.com/news/airbit-club-co-founder-sentenced-prison-crypto-mining-ponzi
Also article claims: 7 billion in losses from crypto ponzis in 2022!   (and that is probably only the ponzis that we know about)

[nrd525]

Bitcoin is up a lot on this year.  Interesting to see the US avoiding a recession (so far).

I'm loading up on Biden to win the Dem nomination (US president, 2024) for approximately 70 cents.  I think the odds are closer to 90% - with the 10% risk of losing mostly being that he drops out.  Various sites that offer this include: PredictIt (US residents), Polymarket (non-US residents), Betfair and Smarkets (UK residents and a large number of other countries), and some sports books that I'm less familiar with.

[nrd525]

Price action is very bullish. BTC up to 64k and only a small pull back and now steady at 62k.

Gut feeling is that it could go 90k-100k this year.  Maybe more.

ETF inflows are huge (see Glassnode youtube). Social risk is low (see Into the Cryptoverse youtube).  Google trends are lower than 2021 and 2018.

That said, I like to buy it when it is 75%-85% off the top in bear markets.  I expect future bear and bull markets to be muted. So buying a 75% move (say at 25k, after peaking at 99.9k) might be the play - whereas if you wait for 15k bitcoins in that scenario - you won't get them.

I haven't decided if I should try to sell some at the top of the bull market, or just hold for another cycle or two (or hold for a very very long time).  Timing the top is extremely hard. Last time we had a flat double top which was very atypical of prior cycles.

[nrd525]

A couple days ago sold 3 BTC at 65500 and 14 ETH at 3500 before the price dumped.  You can get a 15%-19% return on Biden to win the Dem nomination on Polymarket (and even more on Betfair).

[nrd525]

Sold 0.4 BTC at 98200 a couple weeks ago.

MSTR is a pyramid scam/scheme.  A well disguised scheme to find new suckers to buy $1 of Bitcoin for $2-$3.  The people buying stock at market price (either on the market or newly issued) are getting a very bad deal.  It will collapse when they run out of new suckers.

You cannot create value with financial shenanigans.  1 BTC is still worth 1 BTC.

The bondholders get priority over stockholders. So when bitcoin plummets - the stockholders could get zero.

The amount of leverage offered is very small. If you want leverage, buy options. If you want to borrow money, borrow your own money (or better yet - reduce your expenses).

Historically the GBTC premium when negative. It could happen with MSTR.

It's amazing how much hype and inaccurate coverage this is getting.  People like Michael Saylor because he is a rich charismatic leader who is pumping Bitcoin.  They think he's smart, but he's playing them to pump his stock.  The convertible bonds are very useful to confuse people. Saylor has created all sorts of terms like "Bitcoin return" which should be illegal. 

It's fascinating to see how scams have evolved from stealing money outright, to ponzis, to complex ponzis (like Celsius and Axie Infinity) to a NASDAQ 100 pyramid scam.

While it's tempting to try to short MSTR, this is extremely hard to do. It makes more sense to wait for it to collapse, drag down the crypto markets, and buy cheaper crypto assets.

It's impact - on collapse - is likely to be similar to that of FTX + Celsius.  Currently MSTR is $35 billion market cap over BTC value - and it's core software value is low.

[nrd525]

Sold almost all my bitcoin at approx 115k.

Might buy back in at 40k-50k (if we get that low).  Not expecting a 85% fall from the top to peak.  And even 70% might be unlikely.  So a fall to 45k would be 64%.   If we continue with medium strength global economic growth and loosening monetary supply - it will be less likely to hit a 70% decline.  On the other hand, we could see a collapse of the various bitcoin/ETH/etc treasury/pyramids.

MSTR premium down to zero. I'm hoping it goes negative.