nrd525 Market Tracker

[nrd525]

Ah ha!  Coinbase separates its transactions into "regular" and "Coinbase Pro".  If you want the Coinbase Pro you need to go to this page. It will look empty. But you need to generate a report!

https://pro.coinbase.com/profile/statements

[nrd525]

Michael at Box Mining argues that the recent huge Hong Kong conference, opened by the leader of Hong Kong, shows that China is opening back up to crypto.  He thinks the largest market cap coins (including Ethereum which has strong Chinese connections - Vitalik speaks Chinese apparently!) will be the first to benefit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGv8PWj6zCk

[nrd525]

Bullish: Glassnode youtube analysis.
Bearish: US monetary supply is shrinking for the first time in 90 years (the Depression)

I bought 1 btc at 27850.

[nrd525]

bought 1 btc at 25110

[uknowy9999]

bought 1 btc at 25110

What is your longterm strategy and price ideas for BTC and ETH (or any other holding you have)

Thanks

[nrd525]

https://cointelegraph.com/news/airbit-club-co-founder-sentenced-prison-crypto-mining-ponzi
Also article claims: 7 billion in losses from crypto ponzis in 2022!   (and that is probably only the ponzis that we know about)

[nrd525]

Bitcoin is up a lot on this year.  Interesting to see the US avoiding a recession (so far).

I'm loading up on Biden to win the Dem nomination (US president, 2024) for approximately 70 cents.  I think the odds are closer to 90% - with the 10% risk of losing mostly being that he drops out.  Various sites that offer this include: PredictIt (US residents), Polymarket (non-US residents), Betfair and Smarkets (UK residents and a large number of other countries), and some sports books that I'm less familiar with.

[nrd525]

Price action is very bullish. BTC up to 64k and only a small pull back and now steady at 62k.

Gut feeling is that it could go 90k-100k this year.  Maybe more.

ETF inflows are huge (see Glassnode youtube). Social risk is low (see Into the Cryptoverse youtube).  Google trends are lower than 2021 and 2018.

That said, I like to buy it when it is 75%-85% off the top in bear markets.  I expect future bear and bull markets to be muted. So buying a 75% move (say at 25k, after peaking at 99.9k) might be the play - whereas if you wait for 15k bitcoins in that scenario - you won't get them.

I haven't decided if I should try to sell some at the top of the bull market, or just hold for another cycle or two (or hold for a very very long time).  Timing the top is extremely hard. Last time we had a flat double top which was very atypical of prior cycles.

[nrd525]

A couple days ago sold 3 BTC at 65500 and 14 ETH at 3500 before the price dumped.  You can get a 15%-19% return on Biden to win the Dem nomination on Polymarket (and even more on Betfair).