[CLOSED] S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx

[dooglus]

http://paste.ubuntu.com/1503353

Hmm I just tried to verify it myself and get bad signature too... Not sure what I'm doing wrong?

That link has a bunch of HTML around the file.  You need to 'download as text' using the link on that page (http://paste.ubuntu.com/1503353/plain/) and that requires you to sign in to ubuntu's launchpad.  If you do all that, the signature verifies just fine:

Code:

gpg: Signature made Sun 06 Jan 2013 06:32:45 AM PST using DSA key ID F1B69921
gpg: Good signature from "MP Stock Exchange (Visit http://polimedia.us/bitcoin/) <office@polimedia.us>"

[smickles]

should've just used bitbin.it

[lightbox]

Havelock Investments has now done 6 separate public offerings for units of S.DICE in our passthru fund. The demand is still there, so we're doing another public offering starting tomorrow January 15th at 10AM EST. This will be for another 500 units (50,000 shares) at 0.48btc/unit (0.0048btc/share). You can buy into it here once it starts.

https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=SDICE

Havelock Investments currently holds 300,000 shares of S.DICE in our passthru fund, this public offering will bring us to 350,000.

Cheers!
 James

[JordanL]

Why am I rich all of a sudden?

Thanks S.DICE. 

[JordanL]

Anyone have any insight into why the shares have skyrocketed over the past 48 hours???

[FTWbitcoinFTW]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=134684.msg1434713#msg1434713

Consequently, a melt-up in the price is to be expected. What is fairly exceptional is that the issuer did not cancel the IPO's at .0037 or at least move the bid up; or maybe the anonymous investor bought them using some dividends. But that is neither here nor there, using a similar risk premium before Dec's earnings would put a price around at least .0075. So it will be interesting to see how long it takes to get there; assuming an average Jan luck.

Good read so far !

[totaleclipseofthebank]

Why is the Havelock Investments Passthrough priced at around 1000x the MPEx price even though each unit is only worth 100 shares? Am I missing something?

[Bowjob]

Why is the Havelock Investments Passthrough priced at around 1000x the MPEx price even though each unit is only worth 100 shares? Am I missing something?

Yes. Your math is horribly wrong. MPEx price @ 0.00587453 x 100 = 0.58 BTC. Havelock's price is reasonable.

[totaleclipseofthebank]

Why is the Havelock Investments Passthrough priced at around 1000x the MPEx price even though each unit is only worth 100 shares? Am I missing something?

Yes. Your math is horribly wrong. MPEx price @ 0.00587453 x 100 = 0.58 BTC. Havelock's price is reasonable.

sorry about that, thanks

[Bowjob]

It looks like S.Dice is overpriced right now. The overall profit of the dice is 35166 BTC. Since there are 100,000,000 shares, we divide the profit with 10^8. resulting in 3.5 x 10^-4 BTC /share. Now, dividing the current price at MPEX @ 5.9 x 10^-3 with 3.5 x 10^-4 , we get a P/E ratio of 16.8

That is about double from the initial 8.79x P/E ratio of the expected profit back from the prospectus page.

Theories.

1.) a few people are preparing a Satoshi Dice pump and dump
2.) it's insider trading and a few people know something big is gonna happen, like selling S.Dice to a big player

If you check mpex.co, the buy wall at 0.005xx is incredibly thin. The highest bid is 0.0056, and the next bid is 0.005 followed by a few thin bids and down we go to 0.0045

http://mpex.co/?mpsic=S.DICE

Having said my 0.02 BTC, are there any counters to my logic? Alternate theories? I myself hold S.Dice shares so I am not randomly trying to spread FUD.

[MPOE-PR]

It looks like S.Dice is overpriced right now. The overall profit of the dice is 35166 BTC. Since there are 100,000,000 shares, we divide the profit with 10^8. resulting in 3.5 x 10^-4 BTC /share. Now, dividing the current price at MPEX @ 5.9 x 10^-3 with 3.5 x 10^-4 , we get a P/E ratio of 16.8

That overall profit refers to about two quarters of business (site was started late April last year iirc). P/E is particularly meaningless for businesses in their first year, especially if they experience explosive growth, but even so I've never heard of P/E numbers calculated on parts of the year before. Projected P/E based on last quarter figures would come out about 6x better, or a P/E of roughly 2.5.

2.) it's insider trading and a few people know something big is gonna happen, like selling S.Dice to a big player

I can speak for MPEx when I attest we know of no such thing at the present time. A sale to a major player has always been on the table, obviously, as an open possibility, but that's about as definite it gets.

If you check mpex.co, the buy wall at 0.005xx is incredibly thin. The highest bid is 0.0056, and the next bid is 0.005 followed by a few thin bids and down we go to 0.0045

This is true of many securities there at most times; the walls on the bid side are thin. On the other hand if you look at volumes, the daily trade in general exceeds the bid book on any given day (often by a considerable factor). This may be a function of BTC-person behavior or just general weirdness, who knows.

randomly trying to spread FUD.

I certainly don't think that's FUD or anything, for one. Inquiries have to be made, that's the largest half of finance.

[EskimoBob]

Explosive growth in SDICE case must mean that even larger number of bitcoin holders lose their mind and start dumping it to SDICE site.
The following is a pure speculation - are SDICE guys actually inflating the "popularity" of this absurdly boring game by pumping coin they got from IPO through SDICE to make it look like a growing business. Hard to prove, really easy to do.

First, the IPO sold some shares and then it slowed down dramatically. No matter how actively mpex merry band of muppets regurgitated their silly sales crap all over the forum, new SDICE shares did not sell. It stopped at bout 6? mill unsold shares for months.   
Suddenly, we see a huge jump in gambling lunacy and guess what - someone swallowed the bait - and those rotting unsold shares started to sell again. 
 This was so big event, that muppet MPOE-PR even gave herself a her narcissistic maser a self made medal of "Distinguished Service Order of Utter Bullshit and Arrogance". This went straight to her bloated head and she demanded "the community" to kiss her ugly and unwashed (LOL @ "This is where "the community" kisses my feet. Again" https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=135574.0)
Not sure how this "again" got inserted to this retarded farce. I guess in the land of "Major Puppets Exchange" (mpex), everything is possible.

PS! I am glad (not really) that she did not cut herself or poked here eyes out, while making that cardboard&tinfoil medal of hers.

[Peter Lambert]

Explosive growth in SDICE case must mean that even larger number of bitcoin holders lose their mind and start dumping it to SDICE site.
The following is a pure speculation - are SDICE guys actually inflating the "popularity" of this absurdly boring game by pumping coin they got from IPO through SDICE to make it look like a growing business. Hard to prove, really easy to do.

First, the IPO sold some shares and then it slowed down dramatically. No matter how actively mpex merry band of muppets regurgitated their silly sales crap all over the forum, new SDICE shares did not sell. It stopped at bout 6? mill unsold shares for months.    
Suddenly, we see a huge jump in gambling lunacy and guess what - someone swallowed the bait - and those rotting unsold shares started to sell again.  
 This was so big event, that muppet MPOE-PR even gave herself a her narcissistic maser a self made medal of "Distinguished Service Order of Utter Bullshit and Arrogance". This went straight to her bloated head and she demanded "the community" to kiss her ugly and unwashed (LOL @ "This is where "the community" kisses my feet. Again" https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=135574.0)
Not sure how this "again" got inserted to this retarded farce. I guess in the land of "Major Puppets Exchange" (mpex), everything is possible.

PS! I am glad (not really) that she did not cut herself or poked here eyes out, while making that cardboard&tinfoil medal of hers.

It is not really that hard to explain. There are a number of factors which all work to increase the price of the S.Dice shares.

1: As time goes on the perceived risk of investing in S.Dice goes down. The longer the track record, the better the reputation of the asset issuers.
2: S.Dice profit has increased. Seeing the increasing profits, people are willing to pay more to get in.
3: After the shares started selling, one of the first months was a bad luck month, so very little profit (I think it was November?) That was a huge damper on share sales. Which explains why it took so long for IPO shares to sell out.
4: Once the original IPO wall was nearly gone, people waiting to get in realized they should buy shares soon since the price was going to jump, and people correctly figured they could make a quick bitcoin by grabbing the shares and listing them higher.
5: There are a number of threads, including this one, spread throughout the forum, which all deiscuss S.Dice and the suddenly increasing price and Wow, I just got rich off S.Dice and such. So more sheep join into the herd of S.Dice owners and the price goes up.
6: People opening accounts at MPEx or places with pass-throughs is cumulative. When S.Dice was first listed on MPEx fewer people had accounts there and there was no pass-throughs. As Pass-throughs get added and as more people sign up at MPEx the number of people able to buy shares goes up, and so demand rises, which causes a rise in price.

And Evoorhees is a longtime bitcoin user, I am sure he did not need the IPO sale to have bitcoins to artificially pump up the usage numbers for Satoshidice. That is crazy conspiracy theory nonsense.

[Deprived]

Explosive growth in SDICE case must mean that even larger number of bitcoin holders lose their mind and start dumping it to SDICE site.
The following is a pure speculation - are SDICE guys actually inflating the "popularity" of this absurdly boring game by pumping coin they got from IPO through SDICE to make it look like a growing business. Hard to prove, really easy to do.

First, the IPO sold some shares and then it slowed down dramatically. No matter how actively mpex merry band of muppets regurgitated their silly sales crap all over the forum, new SDICE shares did not sell. It stopped at bout 6? mill unsold shares for months.    
Suddenly, we see a huge jump in gambling lunacy and guess what - someone swallowed the bait - and those rotting unsold shares started to sell again.  
 This was so big event, that muppet MPOE-PR even gave herself a her narcissistic maser a self made medal of "Distinguished Service Order of Utter Bullshit and Arrogance". This went straight to her bloated head and she demanded "the community" to kiss her ugly and unwashed (LOL @ "This is where "the community" kisses my feet. Again" https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=135574.0)
Not sure how this "again" got inserted to this retarded farce. I guess in the land of "Major Puppets Exchange" (mpex), everything is possible.

PS! I am glad (not really) that she did not cut herself or poked here eyes out, while making that cardboard&tinfoil medal of hers.

It is not really that hard to explain. There are a number of factors which all work to increase the price of the S.Dice shares.

1: As time goes on the perceived risk of investing in S.Dice goes down. The longer the track record, the better the reputation of the asset issuers.
2: S.Dice profit has increased. Seeing the increasing profits, people are willing to pay more to get in.
3: After the shares started selling, one of the first months was a bad luck month, so very little profit (I think it was November?) That was a huge damper on share sales. Which explains why it took so long for IPO shares to sell out.
4: Once the original IPO wall was nearly gone, people waiting to get in realized they should buy shares soon since the price was going to jump, and people correctly figured they could make a quick bitcoin by grabbing the shares and listing them higher.
5: There are a number of threads, including this one, spread throughout the forum, which all deiscuss S.Dice and the suddenly increasing price and Wow, I just got rich off S.Dice and such. So more sheep join into the herd of S.Dice owners and the price goes up.
6: People opening accounts at MPEx or places with pass-throughs is cumulative. When S.Dice was first listed on MPEx fewer people had accounts there and there was no pass-throughs. As Pass-throughs get added and as more people sign up at MPEx the number of people able to buy shares goes up, and so demand rises, which causes a rise in price.

And Evoorhees is a longtime bitcoin user, I am sure he did not need the IPO sale to have bitcoins to artificially pump up the usage numbers for Satoshidice. That is crazy conspiracy theory nonsense.

You're missing two of the largest factors for the recent rise in S.Dice.  Pirate and the collapse of GLBSE.

Whilst GLBSE was running there were a lot of 'businesses' promising rates of return far higher than S.Dice could deliver.  Then pirate happened and GLBSE collapsed.  And investors in most of the old GLBSE companies are realising that maybe the returns from S.Dice aren't that bad compared to losing the lot by investing in a business based on lies ("I didn't invest in pirate"), deceit ("These fixed-rate mining bonds are a good investment") and imaginative accounting ("Let's value things based on what we hope they'll be worth at some point in the future").

The promises S.Dice made (and the returns it offered) were far less than many alternative offering gave.  But now people can look back at what was actually delivered  - and I think that may be getting a lot of people to reconsider their valuation of S.Dice.

And, of course,  S.Dice's revenue and profits are denominated purely in BTC - so when BTC rises (as now) the value of their investment remains the same (in BTC) rather than falling as is the case with any mining investment whose funds are stuck valued in fiat whilst waiting for ASICs to show up.

Bottom-line: a fairly small profit that materialises is worth a lot more than a huge profit that is just fantasy.

[wachtwoord]

 but even so I've never heard of P/E numbers calculated on parts of the year before. Projected P/E based on last quarter figures would come out about 6x better, or a P/E of roughly 2.5.

Never heard of that? Many value investors (e.g. Graham and Shiller) preach to use the average profit (or even better leveraged free cash flow) of a relatively long period (5 through 10 years) to value a business and provide a margin of safety. PE10 for instance is a relatively frequently used statistic.

Of course this doesn't apply for a young growing (?) start-up such as S.DICE.

[Peter Lambert]

 but even so I've never heard of P/E numbers calculated on parts of the year before. Projected P/E based on last quarter figures would come out about 6x better, or a P/E of roughly 2.5.

Never heard of that? Many value investors (e.g. Graham and Shiller) preach to use the average profit (or even better leveraged free cash flow) of a relatively long period (5 through 10 years) to value a business and provide a margin of safety. PE10 for instance is a relatively frequently used statistic.

Of course this doesn't apply for a young growing (?) start-up such as S.DICE.

When you say P/E, it means one year of earnings. Even in your example you said PE10, which goes the opposite way of being more than one year, not less.

[wachtwoord]

You are right, I totally misread what MPOE-PR said. Please ignore my previous post (next someone will post he/she always  does  )

[EskimoBob]

http://bitelfin.com/
Same stuff, different name?

Has anyone counted, how many clones are out there?
What is your plan, evoorhees, to be better than those?
More interesting?
Some fancy feature? What? 

PS! Bit embarrassing, but yes, I have few shares too, so my concern is legit. 

[nebulus]

The only way these "imitators" can succeed if sdice shuts down, they outdo evoorhees on marketing or evoorhees disappears. That said sdice is currently ahead of the game

[MPOE-PR]

http://bitelfin.com/
Same stuff, different name?

Has anyone counted, how many clones are out there?
What is your plan, evoorhees, to be better than those?
More interesting?
Some fancy feature? What? 

PS! Bit embarrassing, but yes, I have few shares too, so my concern is legit. 

If it's daytime here in normal world, is it night time there in backwards world? That enchanted world where the market leader has to compete with the wanna-bes, not the other way around, that funny world where the owner is held to justify his ownership to the destitute, not the other way around, that strange weird nutso world you live in.

Is it?