Martin Armstrong Discussion

[TPTB_need_war]

2015.75 - 309.6 = 1706.15.

Let's see what happened during the pivotal, rare year 1706:

http://www.hisdates.com/years/1706-historical-events.html

Crap. Nothing happened.

So much for Martin Armstrong's cyclical analysis.

That should be 2032.95 - 309.6.

Before you comment, make sure you are not ignorant of the subject matter.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1723

Also if you are looking at what happened at the same juncture before the turn in the 309.6 year cycle:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1706

What was happening around that time was the Enlightenment, fall of monarchies and the birth of the new world America, the nation-states, and the Industrial Age.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/18th_century

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Frost_of_1709

Now we are looking at the fall of the nation-state and birth of a global village and Knowledge Age.

[TPTB_need_war]

Just how low do you think interest rates would go — negative 20%? Come on. This is a 5000-year low in interest rates so we will have to flip out to the upside. There is no choice in this regard.

Again I reiterate what I wrote upthread and ask all of you to email Armstrong. Does he really think there is a 5000-year cycle and interest rates will be trending up instead of down for next 5000 years?

Obviously usury finance is dying. And I explained why in the Economic Devastation thread.

This is another reason that crypto currency is going to change the world. It is all part of the this massive 309.6 year shift mentioned in my prior post.

[dloghwak]

Before you comment, make sure you are not ignorant of the subject matter.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1723

Also if you are looking at what happened at the same juncture before the turn in the 309.6 year cycle:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1706

What was happening around that time was the Enlightenment, fall of monarchies and the birth of the new world America, the nation-states, and the Industrial Age.

Dont know where you got the dates for this events, but they are a good way off.

[MF Doom]

Just how low do you think interest rates would go — negative 20%? Come on. This is a 5000-year low in interest rates so we will have to flip out to the upside. There is no choice in this regard.

Again I reiterate what I wrote upthread and ask all of you to email Armstrong. Does he really think there is a 5000-year cycle and interest rates will be trending up instead of down for next 5000 years?

Obviously usury finance is dying. And I explained why in the Economic Devastation thread.

This is another reason that crypto currency is going to change the world. It is all part of the this massive 309.6 year shift mentioned in my prior post.

I know Armstrong is an astute forecaster/economist, but do you follow others?  Just to compare and contrast their predictions (and the logic behind them) with Armstrongs?

[TPTB_need_war]

Dont know where you got the dates for this events, but they are a good way off.

It is a trend fool. I didn't write the birth of the Enlightenment. It was the culmination of it.

If you have nothing better to do but spout off without any research and effort, then why waste your time posting here?

I know Armstrong is an astute forecaster/economist, but do you follow others?  Just to compare and contrast their predictions (and the logic behind them) with Armstrongs?

I was stupid enough to follow others in the past and lost a lot of money because of it. Not any more. And haven't been on the wrong side of any market movements since I made that change.

[TPTB_need_war]

MA echos what I wrote about the last 309.6 year cycle being about ending monarchy:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36723

This is part of the 309.6-year cycle that is now unfolding. We went through financial panics prior to the revolution against the monarchy. Hence, we overthrew the monarchy and replaced the king with a herd of ministers.

[TPTB_need_war]

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36813

QUESTION:Your ECM says that there would be a peak in October. Could it be a peak in the confidence in the Dollar as a reserve currency?

ANSWER: No, that comes later. We first have to create the storm. The likelihood of a monetary reform comes into play around 2017. To get there, we have about $9 trillion in debt by other countries that must create a major loss first. With this sort of pressure, then and only then will we see some new type of system. There is nothing currently to replace the dollar. BIG MONEY cannot park anywhere but dollars.

[DigiLab]

Hello,

This just came out:
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36850

Can maybe someone comment about the EUR?
Is it already on its way down with no recovery, or will (and approximately when) there be maybe one last peak before it slides down?

[OROBTC]

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36813

QUESTION:Your ECM says that there would be a peak in October. Could it be a peak in the confidence in the Dollar as a reserve currency?

ANSWER: No, that comes later. We first have to create the storm. The likelihood of a monetary reform comes into play around 2017. To get there, we have about $9 trillion in debt by other countries that must create a major loss first. With this sort of pressure, then and only then will we see some new type of system. There is nothing currently to replace the dollar. BIG MONEY cannot park anywhere but dollars.

BIG MONEY.  That is an astute comment from Armstrong.  Indeed, where would Big Money go?  "TINA"

Big Data, Big Money and even Big Gold all have issues that smaller "shrimps" like us have to deal with.  Scale matters.

*   *   *

DigiLab

MY comment above holds true for the Euro as well.  I have no evidence, but seriously doubt that the Euro could "hold" Big Money looking for a relatively secure place.

I agree with Armstrong and "our" TPTB that the US$ is about the best there is for now re the currencies.

[macsga]

Depends on how actively bonded the two currencies will be during the storm. There's a rumor about artificially tampering with the EUR/USD in order to collectively create a unique inter atlantic market that will be able to absorb the turbulence the upcoming economic disaster is bringing.

PS:
Expect low activity from me for the next week or so, for I'm pretty busy at the lab. I'm closely monitoring the thread though via mobile.

[jehst]

The US stock market entry is hard to time. The US stock market may initially fall as the weak, non-US economies begin their crashes starting in October.

Shorting bitcoin is also hard to time. It popped from 225-235 in a few days and probably wrecked some margin shorts.

So the smartest move is just to be 100% in USD right now. Don't try to start shorting or longing anything. Wait for clarity in the trends.

Ideas:

Sub-$200 BTC might be a good place to start shorting BTC. Wait for it to stay under $200 for a week or two. Flash crashes don't count. $200 is a big psychological number and failing to hold it will be really bad. If it goes down to double digits, you'll still get your healthy profits.

Start buying US stocks only when US stocks are up a few weeks in a row (while foreign markets are simultaneously down a few weeks in a row). Then everyone in the world will see that US = safe, everywhere else = losses. That's when the divergence starts accelerating rapidly. You'll still get healthy profits.

The point is to confirm that our model is playing out the way we think it's going to play out before we enter the positions.

What do you think?

[sidhujag]

What I don't understand is that the real estate cycle lines up with the ecm of 2015.75 so there is a bear market until 2033 but the confidence goes bullish on 2020 again until 2033..

So on 2033 real estate is supposed to go bullish yet confidence goes bearish based on the ecm super cycle?

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/7219-2

Does that mean that after 2015 real estate is abandoned until 2033 while confidence is still rising in other private assets?

Why would in 2033 when ecm collapses the real estate market rise?

[tabnloz]

What I don't understand is that the real estate cycle lines up with the ecm of 2015.75 so there is a bear market until 2033 but the confidence goes bullish on 2020 again until 2033..

So on 2033 real estate is supposed to go bullish yet confidence goes bearish based on the ecm super cycle?

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/7219-2

Does that mean that after 2015 real estate is abandoned until 2033 while confidence is still rising in other private assets?

Why would in 2033 when ecm collapses the real estate market rise?

I also find it difficult to interpret, so this might be a little off but what I gather from MA (and TPTB_needswar interpretation), the RE down/up/down relates to Major / Minor cycles within the overall trend.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-princeton-models-and-methodologies-a-users-guide/major-v-minor-what-is-the-difference

"The real Estate market has been coming back in areas that have proven to attract foreign capital.

So as we look ahead, this is a MINOR rather than a MAJOR change in trend. We will see capital flows shift and intensify, but this is NOT a change in long-term trend. That comes in 2015.75."

So that refers to the downtrend from 2007 and the rise from of 2012.

So RE will be out of favour from 2015.75 until 2033 (believable if it falls over globally again, especially in markets where it has boomed so much ie Canada, London, Sydney, NYC).

2015.75, from TPTB_war's interpretation, emerging markets will lead the collapse. From there plenty of money will flow out of EM's (including proceeds from Em's selling UST fx reserves) will flow back into US dollar and US stocks, but not govt bonds. Later in 2017, after a stock boom, the US will follow EM's down, having been the last man standing.

Then, EM's will come out of the downturn in 2020 while the US & West remain mired in depression until much later with Asia being the new financial hub, so, the fact that many Western cities RE markets benefitted from foreign capital inflows 2012-2015 may be why RE hits its nadir as a private asset while the ECM 'private' blows upwards?

[sidhujag]

What I don't understand is that the real estate cycle lines up with the ecm of 2015.75 so there is a bear market until 2033 but the confidence goes bullish on 2020 again until 2033..

So on 2033 real estate is supposed to go bullish yet confidence goes bearish based on the ecm super cycle?

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/7219-2

Does that mean that after 2015 real estate is abandoned until 2033 while confidence is still rising in other private assets?

Why would in 2033 when ecm collapses the real estate market rise?

I also find it difficult to interpret, so this might be a little off but what I gather from MA (and TPTB_needswar interpretation), the RE down/up/down relates to Major / Minor cycles within the overall trend.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-princeton-models-and-methodologies-a-users-guide/major-v-minor-what-is-the-difference

"The real Estate market has been coming back in areas that have proven to attract foreign capital.

So as we look ahead, this is a MINOR rather than a MAJOR change in trend. We will see capital flows shift and intensify, but this is NOT a change in long-term trend. That comes in 2015.75."

So that refers to the downtrend from 2007 and the rise from of 2012.

So RE will be out of favour from 2015.75 until 2033 (believable if it falls over globally again, especially in markets where it has boomed so much ie Canada, London, Sydney, NYC).

2015.75, from TPTB_war's interpretation, emerging markets will lead the collapse. From there plenty of money will flow out of EM's (including proceeds from Em's selling UST fx reserves) will flow back into US dollar and US stocks, but not govt bonds. Later in 2017, after a stock boom, the US will follow EM's down, having been the last man standing.

Then, EM's will come out of the downturn in 2020 while the US & West remain mired in depression until much later with Asia being the new financial hub, so, the fact that many Western cities RE markets benefitted from foreign capital inflows 2012-2015 may be why RE hits its nadir as a private asset while the ECM 'private' blows upwards?

Makes sense although in other posts he also says everything except bonds and govt related debt will rise to shake out the tree including RE before final hooray but RE also falls on the ECM cycle which means it's a bigger bust so it's confusing and he kind of misleads others saying it should rise explicetly in some posts and then also says in other posts says that cycles of markets which line up with ECM will experience bigger reactions (kind of hinting to get out of that one).

The fact that bonds may collapse would push yields and interest rate up which would drive RE prices down.. Howver market rising would prob raise prices and investors would think all is fine and dandy. I'd say a 5x rate imcrease from these levels will cap RE prices max..

[sidhujag]

I believe MA is stating that the high end of the market is peaking. Unlike 2007, which was subprime borrowers, the high end will crash.

He is stating many things.. Some of which seem inconsistent from the surface but I'd guess there is an explanation.

[OROBTC]

I believe MA is stating that the high end of the market is peaking. Unlike 2007, which was subprime borrowers, the high end will crash.

He is stating many things.. Some of which seem inconsistent from the surface but I'd guess there is an explanation.

Martin Armstrong IS hard to understand, that's the main reason why I started this thread... 

But, I read enough of his "Prison Papers" (that he wrote in jail, and brought out by friends, actually very impressive work) to know he is very smart and knows his history.

"Our" TPTB will come along in due course and offer any explanations you would need... 

[trollercoaster]

"Our" TPTB will come along in due course and offer any explanations you would need... 

Has anyone heard from old mate? His MS had relapsed, so just hoping he is o.k.

[trollercoaster]

My tldr explanation of the real estate cycle is that it is measured on a 78 year wavelength with a prolonged decline, in this case 2007.15 - 2032.95 (prolonged decline due to it being the largest asset class)

 And this 26 year contraction is due to heavy handed taxation making it an unattractive investment (until socialism finally marches over the cliff by 2032.95)

[sidhujag]

My tldr explanation of the real estate cycle is that it is measured on a 78 year wavelength with a prolonged decline, in this case 2007.15 - 2032.95 (prolonged decline due to it being the largest asset class)

 And this 26 year contraction is due to heavy handed taxation making it an unattractive investment (until socialism finally marches over the cliff by 2032.95)

Yet ecm is positive to 2033 then turns negative as real estate rises after?

[conspirosphere.tk]

But, I read enough of his "Prison Papers" (that he wrote in jail, and brought out by friends, actually very impressive work) to know he is very smart and knows his history.

link plz?
(I can't find them googling)