Martin Armstrong Discussion

[macsga]

Have you heard about demographic transition?

If Muslims do more children than Christians or post-Christians it's not because of their religion but become they come from poor countries. A lot African migrants are Christians, and their fertility rate is high.

You probably gave it a better perspective than mine - I admit your explanation is better. The outcome still remains the same though. The demographic transition is happening as we speak. Funnily enough though; in Greece the people who migrated here a couple of decades ago (Nigeria, Kenya, Albania) blended in with the rest of us. They only got about 2 children tops. So there you have it... The "virus" got them too.

[dEBRUYNE]

No raise of interest rates -> http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/17/us-usa-fed-idUSKCN0RH0GH20150917

[spazzdla]

No raise of interest rates -> http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/17/us-usa-fed-idUSKCN0RH0GH20150917

As I have been saying the rates will not go above 1% until the USD does not exist.

[hdbuck]

No raise of interest rates -> http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/17/us-usa-fed-idUSKCN0RH0GH20150917

such "prudence" ^^

[macsga]

Wasn't Martin Amstrong forecasting an interest rate rise at this meeting a few weeks ago on his blog?

I believe he "advised" Fed to raise them, but not to raise excessive res. rate. Here's the blog post of his:

I understand that Larry Summers and the IMF, among others, are advising the Fed not to raise rates. They are expecting the Fed to sacrifice domestic policy objectives for international objectives where so many have borrowed in dollars to save interest. This is the real clash between domestic vs. international and the consequence of the dollar being a reserve currency.

My advice to the Fed: YES, raise the lending rate, but do not raise the excessive reserve rate you pay banks. Alternatively, you can lower the excessive reserve rate to zero and leave the lending rate unchanged. This will have the desired impact of forcing the banks to get real.

If the Fed raises the rate, which includes the deposit rate on excess reserves, the banks will only deposit more money and not lend. This would encourage hoarding and further the deflationary cycle.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37167

[BldSwtTrs]

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong_economics_blog

He says: "Back then, there was a secret meeting and the Fed agreed to lower US rates to try to help  Europe and thereby deflect capital inflows back to Europe. The exact opposite unfolded in the aftermath and even more money abandoned Europe and flowed directly into the US share market."

But the euro immediately raised versus the dollar.

[trollercoaster]

So, what will it be? Prepare yourselves for a multicultural Europe. It's already here in France, Netherlands, England - even Greece. Don't be afraid of it; there's the same virus that will eventually catch them all like it did with us the last couple of decades. It's called "Science & Technology". Evolution-wise these things will eventually normalize them to what we became as well... And they too, will be religion-free after a while.

Yeah. Just like us. And then we will have to find another migrant wave...

Those quoted countries appear to be some of the worst in Europe not that the whole place isn't a mess.

I don't think innovation in the areas of science and technology will be coming from mother Europe any time soon, instead from Asia.
From my perspective it looks like Europe and the West as a whole have condemned themselves to civil unrest, warfare, totalitarianism and degeneracy rather than progress.

I think there will be an exodus away from the west once this crisis becomes more clear.

[macsga]

Those quoted countries appear to be some of the worst in Europe not that the whole place isn't a mess.
I don't think innovation in the areas of science and technology will be coming from mother Europe any time soon, instead from Asia.
From my perspective it looks like Europe and the West as a whole have condemned themselves to civil unrest, warfare, totalitarianism and degeneracy rather than progress.
I think there will be an exodus away from the west once this crisis becomes more clear.

I boldly disagree. Determining a human behavior by addressing whole countries is a generalization which is ineptly perceived. To give you an example: Who can tell for sure that the poor Nigerian emigrant that came in Greece at his age of 6 and now studies molecular biology won't be the one who finds the cancer treatment?

Technology and innovation is not country oriented; and frankly, not even person oriented, really. There are no "genes" for smart people. Everybody has equal chances to achieve magnificence as everybody else. Take for example the best students in the US Universities. Most of them are emigrants. You know why they excel? Because they have no alternative! THEY WANT TO SUCCEED!

It's no different for any other country in the whole planet. I believe that the "injection" of desperate people within EU (and elsewhere) will rise the probability of innovation, instead of decreasing it. Those people have something in common. They're children of a lesser God to the eyes of locals. And they WANT to succeed in order to change this. I believe most of them will eventually manage doing it.

I agree on the civil unrest part; but requires us, to reject the emigrants from our neighborhoods. Which IMHO is inhuman and unfair.

[bigtimespaghetti]

Those quoted countries appear to be some of the worst in Europe not that the whole place isn't a mess.
I don't think innovation in the areas of science and technology will be coming from mother Europe any time soon, instead from Asia.
From my perspective it looks like Europe and the West as a whole have condemned themselves to civil unrest, warfare, totalitarianism and degeneracy rather than progress.
I think there will be an exodus away from the west once this crisis becomes more clear.

I boldly disagree. Determining a human behavior by addressing whole countries is a generalization which is ineptly perceived. To give you an example: Who can tell for sure that the poor Nigerian emigrant that came in Greece at his age of 6 and now studies molecular biology won't be the one who finds the cancer treatment?

Technology and innovation is not country oriented; and frankly, not even person oriented, really. There are no "genes" for smart people. Everybody has equal chances to achieve magnificence as everybody else. Take for example the best students in the US Universities. Most of them are emigrants. You know why they excel? Because they have no alternative! THEY WANT TO SUCCEED!

It's no different for any other country in the whole planet. I believe that the "injection" of desperate people within EU (and elsewhere) will rise the probability of innovation, instead of decreasing it. Those people have something in common. They're children of a lesser God to the eyes of locals. And they WANT to succeed in order to change this. I believe most of them will eventually manage doing it.

I agree on the civil unrest part; but requires us, to reject the emigrants from our neighborhoods. Which IMHO is inhuman and unfair.

Generalizations are how we function in a complex and multicultural society. Average IQs tend to be an indicator of a general population. I don't think individual cases and outliers should be used to assess general trends- sure there are probably lots of freedom loving liberal Syrians or Somalians, doesn't mean I want to live in a neighborhood full of them or that I want my kids near the offspring of these traumatized families. I think focusing on the brilliant (potential) individuals runs dangerously close to a strawman argument. I'm not as positive as you about the future, but I do not think the sky will fall either.

To be frank, the only thing that bothers me is the cultural clash and the inevitable raising of my already exorbitant taxes. Beyond that, it's not like I will be living in those neighborhoods (for now, back in London it's another case entirely) or that they will be competing for my job. I think it's somewhat humane what Germany are doing but far less altruistic than they claim (birthrates and all that).

[macsga]

Generalizations are how we function in a complex and multicultural society. Average IQs tend to be an indicator of a general population. I don't think individual cases and outliers should be used to assess general trends- sure there are probably lots of freedom loving liberal Syrians or Somalians, doesn't mean I want to live in a neighborhood full of them or that I want my kids near the offspring of these traumatized families. I think focusing on the brilliant (potential) individuals runs dangerously close to a strawman argument. I'm not as positive as you about the future, but I do not think the sky will fall either.

To be frank, the only thing that bothers me is the cultural clash and the inevitable raising of my already exorbitant taxes. Beyond that, it's not like I will be living in those neighborhoods (for now, back in London it's another case entirely) or that they will be competing for my job. I think it's somewhat humane what Germany are doing but far less altruistic than they claim (birthrates and all that).

Yet again let me bring you the Pareto principle. The 80% of the general population will never manage to fast forward our society because they simply can't. The ones who do are almost every time the other 20%. To be specific, the 20% of the 20% are the unique geniuses among the general population who "are crazy enough to change the world".

Being "afraid" of the aliens, or don't want them anywhere near us, pretty much certifies the disability of our society to form a global community where everybody is equal to one another. All social schemes have previously failed because of this myopic visualization and incertitude of our "egotistical self" against the "low-end neighbor" (who might prove himself better than us).

It's the NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) motto that we used to have when we first started to get our rubbish sorted out. Only this time we present it with other human beings... Yeah. Shit.

[BldSwtTrs]

So, what will it be? Prepare yourselves for a multicultural Europe. It's already here in France, Netherlands, England - even Greece. Don't be afraid of it; there's the same virus that will eventually catch them all like it did with us the last couple of decades. It's called "Science & Technology". Evolution-wise these things will eventually normalize them to what we became as well... And they too, will be religion-free after a while.

Yeah. Just like us. And then we will have to find another migrant wave...

Those quoted countries appear to be some of the worst in Europe not that the whole place isn't a mess.

I don't think innovation in the areas of science and technology will be coming from mother Europe any time soon, instead from Asia.
From my perspective it looks like Europe and the West as a whole have condemned themselves to civil unrest, warfare, totalitarianism and degeneracy rather than progress.

I think there will be an exodus away from the west once this crisis becomes more clear.

If you look at history, the bulk of innovations in science and technology came from Europe (and then USA also) not Asia (China had a good period under the Sung dynasty, but then go backward).
Even if you look today on the subject which matters the most to us, where is the innovation in crypto comes from? Were cypherphunks non-Westerners? How many core dev or serious crypto-innovators are not from Western culture?

Yet the history of Europe is litter with civil unrest and warfare. Europe was always a messy place, but it seems its culture is unbeatable to beget creativity .

[bigtimespaghetti]

Generalizations are how we function in a complex and multicultural society. Average IQs tend to be an indicator of a general population. I don't think individual cases and outliers should be used to assess general trends- sure there are probably lots of freedom loving liberal Syrians or Somalians, doesn't mean I want to live in a neighborhood full of them or that I want my kids near the offspring of these traumatized families. I think focusing on the brilliant (potential) individuals runs dangerously close to a strawman argument. I'm not as positive as you about the future, but I do not think the sky will fall either.

To be frank, the only thing that bothers me is the cultural clash and the inevitable raising of my already exorbitant taxes. Beyond that, it's not like I will be living in those neighborhoods (for now, back in London it's another case entirely) or that they will be competing for my job. I think it's somewhat humane what Germany are doing but far less altruistic than they claim (birthrates and all that).

Yet again let me bring you the Pareto principle. The 80% of the general population will never manage to fast forward our society because they simply can't. The ones who do are almost every time the other 20%. To be specific, the 20% of the 20% are the unique geniuses among the general population who "are crazy enough to change the world".

Being "afraid" of the aliens, or don't want them anywhere near us, pretty much certifies the disability of our society to form a global community where everybody is equal to one another. All social schemes have previously failed because of this myopic visualization and incertitude of our "egotistical self" against the "low-end neighbor" (who might prove himself better than us).

It's the NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) motto that we used to have when we first started to get our rubbish sorted out. Only this time we present it with other human beings... Yeah. Shit.

I will have to read up on the Pareto principle. But I am skeptical of traumatized low IQ (generalization) populations holding up to it and contributing anything for a generation or two. Crazy geniuses are great in a free society, not in the fascistic mess where many of these migrants originate.

People are not equal, in that they have different abilities. Equal under the law, sure. I have cheaper workers in India and China competing for my job, so I am not "afraid" of foreigners. I do acknowledge that they come from broken societies and violent parenting and would be worried for my own children in any state education I might send them into. There has been zero acknowledgement of this in the media. If this was a truly free society, a lot of this wouldn't be an issue. If people want a welfare state they need to control the borders and manage any refugees realistically. Get rid of the forced redistribution and bring on the exodus IMO.

I have huge empathy for these people, and I do think (with my statist hat on) that there is a role to play by European governments to mitigate this. Where does it end though? But there is shitty stuff going on all over the world. That gets zero coverage. Enabling people from shitty parts of the world to arrive en masse does not solve the problem of why their countries are such messes in the first place. It has encouraged a dehumanizing trade in people all over the middle-east and countless deaths, rapes and further violence as a result.

Isn't this all a moot point with Germany taking in something insane like half a million this year anyway? I would love to be proven wrong on my assumptions. Bring on the integration of freedom loving, liberal and tolerant muslims. And I do not mean that sarcastically.

[macsga]

I've often stated here that we're en route for a EU Federal State. This could not be achieved via a Democratic procedure. TPTB had to create the "need". The need is here in the form of millions of migrates. Their expatriation has been carefully designed and it's been enforced in various forms for the past five years in Syria, Iraq and Pakistan.

The last and most brutal measure, came in the form of Islamic State. Whoever is dumb enough to believe that this wasn't the "child" of TPTB shouldn't be here reading these lines. It was all in the plan. Now, Germany (who firstly stated that "we welcome the emigrants") now closes its borders; the same goes for Austria, while Hungary raised a fence that whoever tries to pass either is imprisoned or abolished from the country.

"The Need" for us Europeans to maintain our territory and protect our borders is "finally" here. We NEED a European Army. Everybody should give what they can; the poor and the rich. The conservatives and the socialists. The migration crisis affects us all...

This Is Gentlemen. The 1st step towards a European Federal State. The United States of Europe finally has something to celebrate.

Goodnight and good luck.



http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/604964/David-Cameron-under-fire-EU-army-stance

I'm re-posting this for reference. IMHO, it has all the answers you may seek. Plus, as an additional bonus, (more like a certification or proof) that Germany & Austria have ceased the Schengen treaty when they "had enough". The "need" is here, we need to act on it. Like NOW! It's URGENT! I'm more worried of our disability to outperform such a dynastic environment than living with those poor devils in the same neighborhood to be honest...

[Bagatell]

statist hat

advertising anarcoin. 

[bigtimespaghetti]

statist hat

advertising anarcoin. 

People can discuss politics without being mired in a single worldview. The state will not disintegrate because I believe it's immoral.

[macsga]

Martin Armstrong often stated about the inevitable crash of the Real Estate bubble. This thing was getting out of control back in the mid-2000s and it's getting even worse now. Interestingly enough (the timing is also critical) Bloomberg has posted an article about the four "worst" cities as far as it concerns the housing rents.

For renters in Austin, Boston, San Francisco, and Houston, however, there may be a slightly less depressing future, a new report shows. Periodically, commercial real estate firm CBRE polls brokers on the rent-growth expectations that apartment landlords are baking into property transactions. And for prime properties in those four cities, those expectations are coming down, according to its most recent report.


This is everywhere btw. Not only in the USofA.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-18/in-some-cities-even-landlords-think-rents-are-getting-out-of-hand

[Wexlike]

Those quoted countries appear to be some of the worst in Europe not that the whole place isn't a mess.
I don't think innovation in the areas of science and technology will be coming from mother Europe any time soon, instead from Asia.
From my perspective it looks like Europe and the West as a whole have condemned themselves to civil unrest, warfare, totalitarianism and degeneracy rather than progress.
I think there will be an exodus away from the west once this crisis becomes more clear.

I boldly disagree. Determining a human behavior by addressing whole countries is a generalization which is ineptly perceived. To give you an example: Who can tell for sure that the poor Nigerian emigrant that came in Greece at his age of 6 and now studies molecular biology won't be the one who finds the cancer treatment?

Technology and innovation is not country oriented; and frankly, not even person oriented, really. There are no "genes" for smart people. Everybody has equal chances to achieve magnificence as everybody else. Take for example the best students in the US Universities. Most of them are emigrants. You know why they excel? Because they have no alternative! THEY WANT TO SUCCEED!

It's no different for any other country in the whole planet. I believe that the "injection" of desperate people within EU (and elsewhere) will rise the probability of innovation, instead of decreasing it. Those people have something in common. They're children of a lesser God to the eyes of locals. And they WANT to succeed in order to change this. I believe most of them will eventually manage doing it.

I agree on the civil unrest part; but requires us, to reject the emigrants from our neighborhoods. Which IMHO is inhuman and unfair.

The problem with the current immigrants is, that half of their brain is occupied by religion. Another problem is, that half of their population is not allowed to do anything else beside breeding and taking care of children at home.

Chances of them contributing in a positive way to the German community are around zero.

[macsga]

The problem with the current immigrants is, that half of their brain is occupied by religion. Another problem is, that half of their population is not allowed to do anything else beside breeding and taking care of children at home.

Chances of them contributing in a positive way to the German community are around zero.

I'm not muslim, but I'd like to take the devil's advocate position here. Turks are part of the German society since sometime in 1990 (maybe even before). Even though I'm a Greek, some of my best friends are Turks that (wait for it) are scientists, as children of poor migrates! Almost none of them is religion oriented anymore. Science tends to transform people to a-religionists at best (we had this conversation about 3 pages ago).

As I wrote above, incentive is a very strong paragon towards success. No matter who you are, where you come from. As I spent half of my life in the university, I've often met colleagues who were hostile against people of certain origin. It's alright not to like everybody; but you shouldn't berate them before they have the chance to prove who they really are and what their brain capacity is.

I was in awe many times in my life by such paradigms; take my word for it (or rather Alan's words):

[Wexlike]

I was talking about the majority, not about cherry picked intelligent and well integrated (a-religious! ) minorities of a community.

[macsga]

I was talking about the majority, not about cherry picked intelligent and well integrated (a-religious! ) minorities of a community.

I have answered in detail on the same subject at bigtimespaghetti's post in this comment. I think it may give your thoughts a better perspective as well. Fortunately, we don't need EVERYONE to be a scientist...