Martin Armstrong Discussion

[iamnotback]

Rothschilds family controls Wikileaks and is choosing the next Prez of the USA or is forcing Obama+Clinton to declare war on Russia:

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/10/breaking-julian-assange-next-leak-will-lead-arrest-hillary-clinton/

Oct. 28 timing:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/ecm/did-something-happen-of-the-ecm-turning-point/

Rothschilds is forcing Obama+Clinton into a corner. Will they be forced to declare war on Russia to remain in control to prevent themselves from going to jail?

The RELIABLE sources from behind the curtain (1) say the Wikileaks has made the FBI look like fools, besides I reported previously that those working on the case unanimously believed she should be indicted. (2) the latest “new” emails go all the way to Obama and it appears that Hillary didn’t like reading long emails on her Blackberry. She was first sending them to Huma would then print them out for Hillary. Huma did not delete them so now they have the whole batch. This is the latest running around behind the curtain for they surfaced from another department when they were looking into allegation of Huma’s husband texting underage girls.

---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: Rothschilds caused the Oct. 28 ECM cycle date event!
From:    "Shelby Moore"
Date:    Sun, October 30, 2016 2:02 am
To:      armstrongeconomics@gmail.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Greetings Martin,

I was waiting for you to write that the FBI reopened the Clinton case on
your ECM cycle turn date of Oct. 28 (which previously you only noted w.r.t. to the
Bundy acquittals,
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/ecm/did-something-happen-of-the-ecm-turning-point/).

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/did-comey-come-out-precisely-on-target-of-the-ecm/


I had immediately noticed that and written about it publicly before you
did. But I had also noticed that Wikileaks was driving this with their
plan to announce on Tuesday, Nov 1, information that could irrefutably
incriminate Clinton and possibly Obama:

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/10/breaking-julian-assange-next-leak-will-lead-arrest-hillary-clinton/


And I was pleased to see that you became aware that Wikileaks is forcing
the hand of the FBI:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/the-fbi-reopens-hillarys-emails-too-hot-to-handle/

The RELIABLE sources from behind the curtain (1) say the Wikileaks has
made the FBI look like fools, besides I reported previously that those
working on the case unanimously believed she should be indicted. (2) the
latest “new” emails go all the way to Obama...

But consistent with our past debates about whether the globalists had
their messy hands in the Ukraine and Middle East nation-building, you have
apparently not been aware that Rothschilds family clan are apparently the
funders for Wikileaks and they are the ones who have arranged his safe
harbor:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1637496.msg16695733#msg16695733

Click the above link and review all the sources! Damn it. Otherwise you
are just being obstinate and refusing to learn what has been exquisitely
documented.


Consistent with the speculative theory you raised on your blog about
Clinton + Obama + USA incumbent political establishment might be trying to
foment war with Russia to blame an election failure or rigging scenario
and justify Marshall law or to provide justification for snuffing out any
Trump post-election protest, the involvement of Rothschild is creating
this pressure on Clinton and Obama raises the question of what is the
strategy of the global elite?

One possibility is as I wrote here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1639006.msg16695728#msg16695728

Now others are picking up on what I (and Armstrong) were writing:

https://steemit.com/money/@dollarvigilante/brexit-ii-is-donald-trump-a-false-flag

Trump is the way for the Joe Blows get to blow up the system and then the
economic collapse (and war) gets laid on Trump's lap.

Another possibility is that the global elite want to force war in the
Middle East, dump all the problems on Trump, and more over what I wrote:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1049048.msg16719991#msg16719991

I think the some Americans are willing to fight to the death for their
culture and way of life. Perhaps that is why Rothschilds may be promoting
Trump to the Presidency (via the alleged control of Wikileaks), so as to
unleash the conservatives against the Liberals in all out civil war mixed
with a potential war with Russia, so as to divide-and-conquer.

You can't kill the conservatives easily (there is a gun under every blade
of grass, and you can take each one from a cold dead hand). So let them
burn themselves out fighting several enemies.

This also fits with Armstrong's theme of the USA breaking up into regions
of conservatives and liberals self-segregation.

Martin, I would like for you to also contemplate that Bitcoin wasn't
likely created by some imaginary Satoshi in his garage. More likely its
development was funded by the global elite for the purposes of breaking
down resistance by nation-state currency systems and turf battles
resistance by banks, while also enabling digital tracking of every
transaction on a public blockchain. Knowing full well that profitable
proof-of-work does not remain decentralized (China's mining oligarchy
controls 65+% of the Bitcoin hashrate, thus controls the protocol).

Also Martin it makes me suspicious of you that you do not admit that a
global elite is a natural order within your models. It is as if you want
to deny the inviolable power-law distribution of wealth.


Shelby Moore III
https://ph.linkedin.com/in/shelby-moore-iii-b31488b0

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[1715550092]

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[1715550092]

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[iamnotback]

I think they are they are happy if you overpay $2 over spot for the oversupply of silver in the world. There is all the silver you want in 1000oz bars. How much do you need? I'll tell you were you can buy it.

Don't buy 18,000 oz of silver like I did. You'll end up bankrupt like I am.

If your goal is to actually make money, you would be buying before there's a physical shortage in 1000oz bars, not after (be first, be smart, or cheat).  I also hear even the big players are buying 1 oz silver eagles and NOT huge bars.

The problem is that physical silver coin is not ever going to be used as currency ever again, no matter what happens. Period.

1. We are in a digital age and no one is going backwards, no matter what happens. Period.

2. When global collapses ensues such that you think you might be able to use metal coinage, what actually happens is as follows.

• As Fernando “FerFAL” Aguirre points out, only the currency that can be exchanged external to the crisis area has value. People are not bartering silver dimes, rather if you had German DMarks in Bosnia or USA dollars in Argentina, then these were accepted and liquid. Gold coins were much more difficult to liquidate because there is a funnel of few dealers that can't actually exchange them for the externally liquid currencies of USA dollars.
• As Dmitry Orlov points out, everyone's priority is on food, security, and transportation. Direct trade of these is more valued than some metal which can't be traded for these needs, because these metals are not liquid.
• Armstrong has also explained that gold and silver only have a value for as long as the collapse is not total and there is still an external market. During Dark Ages such as in Japan or fall of Rome, the gold and silver become entirely illiquid (is buried in the ground) and only food, guns, fuel, and alcohol+cigarettes become money.

See the link below to the description of the war in Bosnia:

You apparently lack appreciation of the significance of both marginal prices in economics, and also the non-linear effects of chaos.

1. With marginal prices in Economics 101, the price you pay is set by the most expensive producer. It is not a useful model to think of a 3/4 reduction in food production causing causing a 400% increase in prices, because when you take away 3/4 of the lowest cost producers, the new supply is highest cost producers. So as was the case in Bosnia, where the cost of food was driven by the highest cost producers, a tin can of Spam was $30 to $40, i.e. roughly a 1000% increase. You need to visualize this as disruption of economies-of-scale not only in farming, but also in terms of distribution economies-of-scale, security of farming and distribution economies-of-scale.

2. When the population has become dependent on high economies-of-scale in farming, distribution, credit, government, corporations, etc., and that is taken away by mother nature and or widespread war/pestilence (-4.5 F average temperature reduction in cold climates, with great aggregate effects such as flooding, droughts, etc), then the F.U.B.A.R. human effects are quite non-linear as described in that link bigtimespaghetti provided on surviving the war in Bosnia (which I had read long ago when it was first published). This can further exacerbate application of solutions and thus drive prices another 1000% higher.

Adaptation was essential as explained below, but the following adaptation can't be done if you are surrounded by humans who are suddenly thrust into a situation for which they are not prepared because they will hunt you instead of adapting:

Makes sense because the purpose of a currency is standardized, interchangeable units of measure, and bullion bars do not fit the bill.  They're only useful for industrial applications, which is why many places in Europe charge VAT on bars and not coins.  Also easier to avoid counterfeits with coins than bullion bars.

Actually doesn't make sense at all. You want to be buying bullion that can be liquidated if the collapse doesn't go extreme. Otherwise you don't want to be buying precious metals at all.

This is why crypto-currency is going to kick ass.

I would have maybe some 1 oz gold coins for a desperation situation, knowing full well that anyone that takes them in payment is only going to give me 1/10 their "official value" (or original value) in an apocalyptic collapse scenario.

Must better I have dollar bills and even better some crypto-currency, especially some that I am able to use anonymously if needed.

I am not betting on the apocalyptic collapse scenario, because if we go there then what I really need is to be self-sufficient. No amount of monetary currency savings can help me. I would need guns, fellow community, and ability to survive off the land.

Please stop talking nonsense about silver coins as an investment. It is stupidest thing I have ever once thought was true until I woke up from being a dumb ass tinfoil hat.

As for the future, both Hillary and Trump have talked about massive, expensive, public works projects, plus Trump has even talked about defaulting on the debt.  Tons of govt spending that won't be paid for is pretty bullish on anything that's not connected to USD debt markets.  We also reached peak oil in 2004, so extraction of anything from the earth is inherently more expensive after that date.  The markets have just not caught up to the fact yet since markets are manipulated and distorted.

So buy gold bullion.

We also reached peak oil in 2004, so extraction of anything from the earth is inherently more expensive after that date.  The markets have just not caught up to the fact yet since markets are manipulated and distorted.

Peak oil is propaganda lie that Rothschilds has been funding same as the Man-made global warming lie.

It is not true. You'd only need the flow of oil out of the ground of a medium size river, to supply the entire world's support of oil. The USA has risen to the #1 global producer over the past decade due to the discovery of fracking.

Besides we are moving away from carbon-based fuels and generation via nuclear energy, solar, hydroelectric, and geothermal. New technological breakthroughs in these areas plus battery technology will obsolete carbon fuels. Also we are moving towards living in high-density cities with mass transportation instead of one human per vehicle. Our vehicles can also improve efficiency by 100 - 200%. The technological innovation whirlwind is underway.

There is no strong case for silver. It is more volatile than gold, less liquid, and there is no supply crunch problem. The precious metal promoters are fooling you with lies and propaganda.

In the end though, you will always have tyranny without metals circulated as currency in native form.  A "gold backed" currency is useless, they have to be circulated.  Bitcoin does not solve any of those issues because Bitcoin is inherently a technoracy, which is what I told Theymos in the following thread:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1654457.msg16663846#msg16663846

There is no solution to the inviolable (insoluble) tyranny of the power-law distribution¹ and the Iron Law of Political Economics power vacuum.

Sorry just accept the fate of the human race.

That unfortunate fact won't make gold and silver viable again, just because Bitcoin isn't a panacea. There will never be a panacea. Give up.

¹ A. Dragulescu and V. Yakovenko. Exponential and power-law probability distributions of wealth and income in the United Kingdom and the United States.

[RAJSALLIN]

Very well written Anonymint.

[iamnotback]

The IQ here is amazing.  

Time to spank some braggart tinfoil pointed hat wearing dolts...

For me its a simple case of follow the big money.

Governments, central banks and very powerful individuals are all ploughing their money into gold and there is a reason for this.

And they aren't buying silver dimes. They are buying Comex bars, bullion, ETFs, and otherwise investing based on liquidity.

Any BS from gold propagandists to the contrary is not factual.

It seems you don't understand a shit about precious metals.

See how small bitcoin is comparing to gold market? It is like a tiny sand particle on earth.

The issue is whether it will be liquid during a collapse, which has nothing to do with the relative supply that is stored in some few numbers of vaults mostly controlled by super wealthy and governments.

Comparing the liquidity of gold to Bitcoin now for an individual with a wireless computer connection in most locations of the world to liquidity of physical precious metal coin in those locations, makes gold look pathetic.

You son, don't understand precious metals. Get off my lawn with your pathetic attempts to insult yourself.

Total gold market cap = $7,617,683,440,065
Total bitcoin market cap =  $11,342,306,883

bitcoin market cap = 0.1489% of gold's

I think we would have to see quite a swing in prices to see "the situation change a lot"  

Saplings grow very rapidly to oak trees, but oak trees don't grow to the moon. Are you investing for maximum or minimum gain. Duh.  

A Massive 'Coronal Hole' on the Sun is Blasting Earth w/ Solar Storms That Could CRIPPLE Power

Sunspot magnetic field driven activity is headed for minimization from 2020s through 2040s:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/nature/sun-drop-in-energy-output-is-stronger-than-expected/

Here is the RT video with English CC subtitles (click the CC button):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5M9cklpcJNs

Basically the cooling with accelerate in 2020s, and then get worse in 2030s, then start to warm in 2040s.

[iamnotback]

Also stating gold is not liquid is bollocks

You have a significant reading comprehension deficiency. This is 3rd time I've told you that the scenario entertained is "in a collapse". We aren't talking about being able to drive over to your coin dealer (who btw in a collapse scenario has already been killed and all his inventory stolen). Your Porsche 911 has been destroyed in this scenario. I suppose you didn't even read the linked scenario:

surviving the war in Bosnia

Btw, there are no coin dealers in Mindanao nor in rural areas of most of the world.

Try to sell some precious metal where I am, and you'll be missing an arm or finger or eyeball not too long after that.

Liquidity? What are you taking about? We are talking about gold here, the most ancient currency of all times. Don't mix gold with bunch of anonymous internet software.

GAFC.

[r0ach]

The problem is that physical silver coin is not ever going to be used as currency ever again, no matter what happens. Period.

You are wrong.  When complex systems collapse, they always revert to a more primitive state.  There is no viable scenario on earth where the global economy experiences any type of serious meltdown and immediately jumps to an even more complex state (bitcoin).  The paper bills will be the main thing imploding because the coinage has an actual floor to it.  The cost to produce a nickel varies between around 5-8 cents and a penny is around 1.7 cents, so it's plausible that several denominations of coins would just keep on trucking and be utilized even if the paper currency went to zero.

This is not a sunk cost fallacy, the nickel is 75% copper and 25% nickel, so it has actual real value and doesn't even matter if the dollar implodes.  The same dynamic will bring gold and silver coins out of the woodwork in a financial crisis and they will be accepted.  The majority of wealth holders in the world are old people who can't even comprehend what a Bitcoin is, and will not trust any type of wealth preservation tool besides what they can hold in their hand and defend with a rifle after they all figure out they're being robbed.

There is a common saying that there's always been currency crisis in nations like Argentina, but never a world crisis that affects the reserve currency or every currency at the same time.  This means many people in those countries just attempted to use a foreign currency in it's place like the federal reserve note.  When that is not a viable solution due to all currency being affected at once, they will be forced to seek out local coinage that has an actual price floor attached to it in it's place, unlike the paper biills.

Peak oil is propaganda lie

Peak oil is obviously real because we extract all the low hanging fruit first (the cheapest oil), leaving the more expensive oil last, and then the oil market eventually has thermodynamic collapse once you take this idea to it's conclusion for the same reason we don't mine resources in space.  Even if you believe in abiotic oil, we use it far faster than it would replenish itself in cheap to extract places.  The fact that anyone on earth EVER bothered with shale oil at all proves we have hit peak oil.  Some will claim shale oil was just a "boondoggle" and not proof of this fact, but it's not true.  

Global conventional oil production peaked in 2004.  Unconventional oil sources temporarily gave the illusion that it didn't.  Unconventional oil sources, which give you less energy gained per energy spent, are not viable to sustain the inefficient logistics of modern civilization where people drive 40 miles solely to buy a $5 McDonalds meal.  A shift would occur where parts of civilization become much more vertically integrated and efficient (but also a slave system), and others would probably become more primitive and agrarian.

None of these inevitabilities are obvious to anyone because all of the markets are currently rigged and distorted.

Besides we are moving away from carbon-based fuels and generation via nuclear energy, solar, hydroelectric, and geothermal. New technological breakthroughs in these areas plus battery technology will obsolete carbon fuels.

WHAT battery technology?  I sure as hell don't see it.  Even if you created this supposed miracle battery, it might be viable for small vehicles or motorcycles, but not for powering heavy machinery that's used to actually make industry function and extract resources from the ground.  Powering semi-trucks with batteries also seems to be a pipe dream.

There is no strong case for silver. It is more volatile than gold, less liquid, and there is no supply crunch problem. The precious metal promoters are fooling you with lies and propaganda.

It is estimated that within around 50 years we will run out of a lot of rare earth materials used in industry.  The timeline for silver is even sooner, around 20-30 years.  There is not a silver supply crunch problem, there is a supply crunch problem for everything.

There is no solution to the inviolable (insoluble) tyranny of the power-law distribution¹ and the Iron Law of Political Economics power vacuum.

It's called not obfuscating the power structure with fake decentralization (house and senate which are just front groups for a man behind the curtain) so that people can just kill a single entity when they become tyrants to fix the problem.  This is why a constitutional monarchy with a bill of rights wins.  Nobody wants to be a puppet ruler for bankers emmitting tyranny when the odds of the people killing you are high.  But if you're only 1 of 100 puppets in the senate, the risk to you is low with high reward because nobody can even be bothered knowing all 100 of their names in the first place.  Accountability doesn't come without a central figurehead of who is actually in charge.

Such a model would have to have some decentralization built in to prevent a unilateral launch of nuclear weapons, but the base of what goes and accountability has to reside in the executive branch and not be spread amongst several fake branches which are just front groups or meaningless political prostitutes.

[OROBTC]

...

r0ach and iamnotback

I addressed part of the currency matter in a nearby thread, but in sum I believe that silver coins would only be used in a catastrophic SHTF (perhaps the more ominous TEOTWAWKI).

Modern history has shown that CURRENCIES (strong ones like the US$ or old German D-Mark) are typically used in crisis situations.  Argentina and former Yugoslavia (as iamnotback pointed) are countries I have examined myself, and they did not revert to silver (nor gold).  As long as there is reasonable confidence in the "strong" currency, the convenience of using currency vs. PMs is the deciding factor.

A world-class Internet disaster would take down Bitcoin as a reasonable alternative, even if in theory it could "work" (paper wallets, etc.).  If Bitcoin's use is so limited now, it would be used much less without electricity or a functioning Internet.  (Granted, the 'Net going down seems unlikely.)

* * *

I worked briefly in the oil business (long ago) and maintain some contacts.  One is a professional geologist (a PhD, who worked as a prized "oil finder" for a major) who told me "There's plenty of oil."

I did not grill him ("at what price", etc.), but I have my doubts that the oil-hating Left has Peak Oil correct.

My *hunch* is that innovations and bright people will come along and resolve many of the energy issues.  Oil is way DOWN in price from its 2007 peaks of nearly $140.

We will just have to see.  "Peak Oil" is a still unresolved matter.

* * *

Re silver and rare earths running out, well so far pricing in rare earths would not reflect that (else there would be some people, companies and countries hoarding -- people who think like me, I actually own 11 oz of iridium).

Perhaps the rare earth metal most sought is dysprosium (for use in making rare earth magnets more permanent), here is a page worth taking a look at:

http://www.kitco.com/strategic-metals/

Note dysprosium...  The price is down 90% from the days when the rare earths starting getting hyped.

[r0ach]

I worked briefly in the oil business (long ago) and maintain some contacts.  One is a professional geologist (a PhD, who worked as a prized "oil finder" for a major) who told me "There's plenty of oil."

I did not grill him ("at what price",

Yes, the "at what price" is the problem.  I forget the figures offhand, but I think we used something like 1/3rd of known deposits so there's still a lot left, but we took all the cheap stuff first!  I think oil used to be cheaper than water once in Texas.  Seemingly infinite energy allows a massive expansion and "progress" of civilization, and that era of practically free energy will never be repeated and can only go downhill from here.  If we have a big world war, we go from rebuilding with practically free and infinite energy like after WW2, to a completely different story now.  

It might be a part of the Fermi paradox, difficulty in rebuilding after a dark age as complexity of civilization continues to increase in terms of labor skills required + energy required to put it back together.  You might only get one chance to progress to a certain point capabale of leaving the planet and accumulating resources elsewhere, or if you fall before reaching that piont, you can never get back to it again.

[deisik]

I worked briefly in the oil business (long ago) and maintain some contacts.  One is a professional geologist (a PhD, who worked as a prized "oil finder" for a major) who told me "There's plenty of oil."

I did not grill him ("at what price",

Yes, the "at what price" is the problem.  I forget the figures offhand, but I think we used something like 1/3rd of known deposits so there's still a lot left, but we took all the cheap stuff first!  I think oil used to be cheaper than water once in Texas.  Seemingly infinite energy allows a massive expansion and "progress" of civilization, and that era of practically free energy will never be repeated and can only go downhill from here.  If we have a big world war, we go from rebuilding with practically free and infinite energy like after WW2, to a completely different story now

I tend to disagree. You may be right in this very case, but overall, as history shows, there is always something that we simply don't know about yet (haven't discovered it or the ways to use it). Who could ever think about using nuclear energy when oil became mainstream in the second half of the 19th century? So, most likely, we would be hitting the limit of our knowledge about what could be made into a resource, but not the actual lack of resources due to some existential limit...

In fact, we will never know which wall we hit

[r0ach]

I tend to disagree. You may be right in this very case, but overall, as history shows, there is always something that we simply don't know about yet (haven't discovered it or the ways to use it). Who could ever think about using nuclear energy when oil became mainstream in the second half of the 19th century? So, most likely, we would be hitting the limit of our knowledge about what could be made into a resource, but not the actual lack of resources due to some existential limit...

There's lots of Thorium laying around you can use for nuclear energy, but the point was that the skillset to do so is probably absent after a dark ages and you would have to work your way back up using something like coal again as a base except all the coal and oil is gone or only located somewhere like Antarctica.

[iamnotback]

The ridiculous fear-mongering leveraging the shallow depth of most people's conception of reality in a transparent attempt to artificially inflate Bitcoin at the expense of PMs is a pattern seen in various semi-notorious and/or semi-desperate scammers over the years.

Perhaps I'll re-visit this thread to flesh things out, but the short story is:  Bitcoin and PM's are effectively the same thing with some modestly different and potentially symbiotic strengths and weaknesses.  In anything approaching a bonafide 'collapse scenario', it would behoove one to have command of both.  In a genuine collapse it could be life and death.

And you were the one two years ago in HashFast criminal Cypherdorc's thread who thought (still thinks?) Blockstream's side-chains are a viable technology (I have a very good memory). You lack technical insight and good judgment.

I tried to be liquid with gold and silver in the Philippines and I lost my ass because of it.

Before you spout off nonsense from your armchair, you should actually have experience.

You have no experience developing serious blockchain technology (I do, and how is that nonsense paracoin coming along?) and you have no experience trying to be liquid with precious metals outside of your comfy Western coin dealers (I do) and thus you are incorrect. When and if the SHTF, then if your comfy coin dealers are not able to service you, then you will depend on the innate liquidity of precious metals, meaning what the common person thinks of them. I suggest you go stand at the mall and try to give away a 1oz silver coin at $10 under spot as some guy did at numerous locations in the USA and nobody was interested to pay $10 for a 1oz silver coin. He was standing right in front of a coin dealer and even told them they could check the spot price inside. The masses do not think gold and silver are currency. Get a fucking clue.

As cited in my OP, those who have experienced economic and social collapse first-hand, have stated that only food, security, medicine, and sin goods are liquid during that scenario. Also any liquid currency that people know they can very readily exchange externally to the collapsed region. Precious metals (especially silver dimes!) don't qualify. Tinfoil hat wearing goldbug idiots are thinking that people will accept their coins in barter. Never going to happen dude. Get a fucking clue about reality.

You also are closed-minded because you are wearing a tinfoil hat (as I used to do) and thus you are blindly married to the concept in which you are vested.

You do realize I am @anonymint, also Legendary (plus a few Hero accounts as well) don't you?

Edit: Selling a 10 oz Silver Bar for $10 (When It's Worth $160) - EXPERIMENT -

Selling 1 Oz Gold Coin for $25 (when it's worth over $1,500)

Buying a 99¢ Taco with 1 Ounce Gold Coin (worth over $1000) - from Taco Bell's Drive-Through

Free $5 Bill or Free Silver Dollar? It's Up To You  <--- make sure you listen at 1:30 to the guy who knows the spot price but still won't take the silver dollar!

[iamnotback]

Gold is a bubble which may at any moment burst. I'm not buying gold right now and do not advise others. The price will fall.

I disagree, I think there is still a lot of upside with many predicting $5k gold by 2020.

Gold can go very high if we don't get abject social collapse, and it will rise because it is a hedge against governments. And $5k is plausible, but not higher.

But gold is not going to go up in the in between scenarios, such as the one we are in now where the dollar will become very strong (go read my posts in the Martin Armstrong thread to understand why) and then later if we slide into abject collapse.

So gold has a very limited window of scenarios for large gains.

Whereas, crypto-currency is a nascent technology that is going to spread all over the world and become used by millions and billions of people.

You are comparing a maybe 4X gain over the next  decade, to a 100X gain. Precious metals are pathetic.

But don't listen to me.

[OROBTC]

...

iamnotback

I have now seen several Mark Dice videos, they are hilarious (if you discount the feelings of doom for our country based on the ignorance of our people). 

My favorite was the one where he is offering a FREE 1 oz Au Canadian Maple to anyone who could guess the current price of gold within a very reasonable 25% (some $1600 at the time he filmed it).  In his video, he asks some 10 people to guess, in two cases he loosened his rules to allow the coin to be given away if they guessed within 50%!  NO ONE won.

My favorite guess was from the young lady who guessed $3.00.

We're doomed!

[iamnotback]

When complex systems collapse, they always revert to a more primitive state.

Correct. Food, security, medicine, and sin products. Not some silly silver dimes that have no primitive utility and last used to be currency 50 years ago (and for the most part not really currency all over the world since a century ago).

You lack the capability of clear logic.

There is no viable scenario on earth where the global economy experiences any type of serious meltdown and immediately jumps to an even more complex state (bitcoin).

Of course there is. Technology would be precisely the way humans would try to subvert the crisis, because it is the most efficient. Smartphones use very little power (can be charged with a solar panel or even a hand crank) and WiFi mesh networking technology is already being looked at by Google and others. Necessity is the mother of accelerated "seat of the pants" innovation. We have the hardware in everyone's hand. We programmers can add mesh networking in a heartbeat when we must have it.

We don't absolutely have to use cellular towers. They are more efficient, but we can get low bandwidth needed for crypto-transactions done in other ways such as WiFi mesh and/or HAM radio.

The paper bills will be the main thing imploding because the coinage has an actual floor to it.  The cost to produce a nickel varies between around 5-8 cents and a penny is around 1.7 cents, so it's plausible that several denominations of coins would just keep on trucking and be utilized even if the paper currency went to zero.

What a tinfoil hat dolt. Iron used to be a precious metal. The commodities are on an inexorable decline in relative value. Did you entirely miss this point from my famous essay which CoinCube cited in the OP of the Economic Devastation thread. There is a chart there from the Economist magazine which would be very eye opening for you.

Peak oil is propaganda lie

Peak oil is obviously real because we extract all the low hanging fruit first (the cheapest oil)

Obviously you've been fooled by Rothschilds-funded propaganda and then you claim you don't want to be his slave. Lol.

r0ach you have a lot to learn about the realities of the world. And I don't have the time to teach you.

I will just tell you that my father was the West Coast Division Head Attorney for Exxon in the 1980s and after a General Counsel for THUMS a consortium of the major oil companies. I know some things you do not know.

Besides we are moving away from carbon-based fuels and generation via nuclear energy, solar, hydroelectric, and geothermal. New technological breakthroughs in these areas plus battery technology will obsolete carbon fuels.

WHAT battery technology?  I sure as hell don't see it.

A confluence of technologies is actively transforming our energy economy as we speak.

There is no strong case for silver. It is more volatile than gold, less liquid, and there is no supply crunch problem. The precious metal promoters are fooling you with lies and propaganda.

It is estimated that within around 50 years we will run out of a lot of rare earth materials used in industry.

BS. Some entities tried to corner the market (mines). There is abundance of rare earths. You are a Malthusian fool.

The timeline for silver is even sooner, around 20-30 years.  There is not a silver supply crunch problem, there is a supply crunch problem for everything.

Nonsense. There is so much silver in the ground, we will never get it all out in 10,000 years. Also for example, as needed by necessity technology will advance and there will bots that can follow an ore vein and mine at the same time as exploring.

There is no solution to the inviolable (insoluble) tyranny of the power-law distribution¹ and the Iron Law of Political Economics power vacuum.

It's called...

Blah, blah. More self masturbation, armchair useless talk.

[iamnotback]

I tend to disagree. You may be right in this very case, but overall, as history shows, there is always something that we simply don't know about yet (haven't discovered it or the ways to use it). Who could ever think about using nuclear energy when oil became mainstream in the second half of the 19th century?

There's lots of Thorium laying around you can use for nuclear energy, but the point was that the skillset to do so is probably absent after a dark ages and you would have to work your way back up using something like coal again as a base except all the coal and oil is gone or only located somewhere like Antarctica.

If the entire world sinks into a 600 year Dark Age, then peak oil will be least of your worries. And you can't eat silver dimes. In Japan for 600+ years, rice was the only currency.

deisik, correct.

[iamnotback]

Any one buying precious metals right now and not Bitcoin @$700 is an idiot.

You should be buying BTC aggressively and plan to diversify into any best-of-breed altcoins at the right timing. For example, once XMR and ZEC (Zcash) bottoms, you should be buying aggressively, which will probably after the current up move in BTC matures.

Those who stay in precious metals are going to see losses in 2017 (due to a surging dollar) and then only at most a 4 X gain from current prices over next several years.

Those in solid crypto-currency speculations are going to see 10 - 100 X gain in that same timeframe.

[freshman777]

Any one buying precious metals right now and not Bitcoin @$700 is an idiot.

You should be buying BTC aggressively and plan to diversify into any best-of-breed altcoins at the right timing. For example, once XMR and ZEC (Zcash) bottoms, you should be buying aggressively, which will probably after the current up move in BTC matures.

Those who stay in precious metals are going to see losses in 2017 and then only at most a 4 X gain from current prices over next several years.

Those in solid crypto-currency speculations are going to see 10 - 100 X gain in that same timeframe.

You've said numerous times you're poor as a church mouse (well, close enough) and you give investment advice here? Seems legit.

[iamnotback]

You've said numerous times you're poor as a church mouse (well, close enough) and you give investment advice here? Seems legit.

You might as well be speaking about Jessie Livermore also, the greatest speculator of all time who shorted the Great Depression when all the other idiots were on the wrong side of trade. He lost the $95 million before he died.

At least I learned something from experiences and mistakes. Btw, I suggest that when you don't know someone's circumstances, then you shouldn't conclude they lost their money due to investment decisions alone. In my case, I was pressured by a family situation and also emergency illness. And also I was pressured to leave the USA by the actions of a same family member which endangered our mutual custody of our children. If you even had a clue as to all the incompatible balls I was juggling at that time, then maybe you might be more rational in your judgement.

Instead of attacking people you do not like, instead why not attack the logic of the message. But losers do what you do, so you know what I expect from you in the future. Loser. Prove me wrong. What have you accomplished? What is your identity? What is your life story?

Yeah take your pot shots from behind your own secrecy. Nice. Loser.

Now I remember why I have you on Ignore.

[iamnotback]

Any one buying precious metals right now and not Bitcoin @$700 is an idiot.
...

True (perhaps) IF they already have an ass-load of PM and no crypto (and some basic computer skilz.)

False (perhaps) IF they have have an ass-load of crypto and no PM.

I am obviously not writing to the second class of reader. I don't feel any need whatsoever to encourage any one in any circumstance to diversify in pathetic precious metals. That is how pathetic I think they are. Diversify into USA dollars and USA stock market.

A few well recognized gold coins for a "get of Dodge" plan. Yeah okay, but that isn't an investment. It is akin to buying a gun. It is an expense.

Some bullion to drool over and fondle, okay that is another expense for rich boys akin to buying a Corvette or Ferrari. I have held 5 Krugs in my hand. Feels awesome.

I am intentionally ridiculing those who stack precious metal. I am embarrassed that I used to be one of them. Those who think they will leave this useless metal to their children as some sort of accomplishment. These guys may even be my friends, and I am trying to wake them up from the severity of their mistake.

Perhaps you would not have so many failures if you recognized some of the nuances of strategy.  Different people have different situations and there is no way to accurately predict the future.

I wouldn't have lost the fortune I earned developing computer software if I hadn't become a silverbug following Jason Hommel back in 2006. And shipped my physical metal to the Philippines!

Precious metal bugs are irrational extremists, who are locked and loaded in their basements. They are goofy insane. They may be smart in other ways, but they have a few screws loose in the noggin.

If you believe gold and silver are great investments, then buy an ETF. But noooo, y'all 'bugs are preparing for the end of the world scenario so an ETF isn't reliable. But in the collapse scenario, their goofy silver dimes are as useful as eating concrete.

BTW, it's a fair bet that free internetworking via corporate controlled global packet transmission infrastructure will fail (in one way or another) long before we hit rock bottom in a real SHTF scenario.  (By 'free' I mean free of various kinds of controls of course.)  Not that certain varieties of crypto won't be able to work in such an environment to a degree, but they won't work well for even the more technologically capable and likely not at all for the rest.  A dusty old wallet might be worth a fortune on the other side of such an event, but one needs to stay alive long enough to get there.

If we get to that level of collapse, then the least of your worries with be your monetary stash. And precious metals won't function either. You'll be fighting for food, security, medicine, and primitive needs.

[iamnotback]

Plus not all part of the world recognize digital transactions because as of the moment they still have no electricty and do not know how tobuse computers.

Sorry that place doesn't exist much anymore. Even Africans have smartphones.