Martin Armstrong Discussion

[OROBTC]

...

RAJSALLIN

I too have seen that idea, namely that Trump winning would serve The Elites well in that "they" could cause a stock market panic and recession.  And that idea has been persistent for months now.

I don't really know how to assess that.  Recall that under Reagan we had a recession at the beginning of his administration, and then the economy grew nicely leading to his re-election.

We are due for a recession, they typically come by every five years (+/- 2 years)or so.  We left the last one (official numbers) in 2009.  So we have been in recovery for 7 years, albeit a very weak one.

Note (as Armstrong and every person with a functioning brain would) that our US national debt now stands at $19.7 trillion (again, official numbers), which is TWICE where it was when W left office.

[iamnotback]

I don't believe it'll drop below $600 again before a new ATH next year, chinese fud doesn't seem to be working.

I agree. I lean towards it not falling below $650 again before a new ATH.

I think Coindesk got it not quite correct because they don't understand the theme of dollar short contagion:

www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-traders-believe-trump-win-trigger-price-boost/

Bitcoin seems to be on the receiving end of the lurch to dollar inflows into the USA (as the massive global dollar short unravels due to Trump) because the instability in the rest of the world as the dollar short contagion spreads and accelerates. Bitcoin is a safe haven asset and also speculative, so it is more aligned with the USA stock market in this context than gold.

After 2018 or so, gold and Bitcoin will align, and the dollar may turn down relative to "get off the grid" assets. USA stocks will likely peak also as the China craters into its 2020 bottom and Europe falls of the rails for its multi-decade decline into a 3rd world clusterfuck.

Thanks for clarifying. So bitcoin long for a few years. I like that prediction.

With corrections along the way when overbought.

(Wildcard is the Bitcoin killer altcoin, lol)

You speculated before the election that Trump could be the elite's choice and that they would blame him for an economic melt down. How do you see this playing out now that he actually got elected? That very much resonated with me I'm just not clearly seeing how the economy will tank now that they got a president who actually understands some of the underlying problems.

Allowing the conservatives to (appear to) be running the ship when the ship sinks because of the irrevocable collapse the liberals (and neocon fascists) baked in, so the liberals can blame the conservatives and not learn anything about their mistakes, is orthogonal to the fact that when the ship collapses the dollar short will come running home to the safe haven of the liquidity of the reserve currency and thus:

dollar up, gold down.

And then since dollar up and contagion collapse outside the USA, thus Bitcoin up as the alternative means of moving capital out of harms way. Remember from recent upthread debate, that gold is not liquid, Bitcoin is. And speculative piling on because of it. And Bitcoin is a speculative asset so when the USA stocks are rallying, expect Bitcoin to rally, which has been the case and because everything else in the world will be collapsing so very few asset classes rallying.

Bitcoin is exhibiting the textbook new technology adoption curve and we've already come out of the valley after the initial craze and so there is only one general secular trend from here (albeit with corrections from higher highs along the way):

Up.

Later after 2018 or so, when the contagion of dollar shorts has peaked and USA dollar and stocks have concomitantly peaked, then that is when gold can run up significantly. And I think Bitcoin may also continue up, although that might be the time for big correction if it has already run up to significantly higher ATHs. Note that doesn't necessarily mean gold won't bottom until the dollar peaks (and as r0ach pointed out, especially if you aren't measuring the gold priced in dollars but some other currency).

[freshman777]

@iamnotback,
what is your prediction on the price of Bitcoin? I don't ask when, only how high. Secondly, what's your view on how price and adoption can/cannot be held down/up by the block size/segwit/lightning/whatever they are cooking there?

[iamnotback]

Note how the States Hillary won (or very close votes and/or many Latinos) are also significantly correlated with the legalized-for-recreational-use marijuana states (legal for medical use isn't the same issue):

http://www.fox5ny.com/news/216285833-story

This portends the future geographical split of the USA into autonomous regions as portended by Armstrongs computer model.

More precisely the central corridor (mid-west, Texas, and southeast except south Florida) is the traditional Bible Belt. This is why Montana and N. Dakota are exceptions (they vote Trump because they want they want less government intrusion but they are not religious). The divide is more about religion (and its concomitant culture) than anything else. Note (especially brown) Catholics are not the same as Protestants, which is why the Latinos (on average) have insufficient discipline when it comes to marijuana (my Colombian friend says it is widespread usage throughout South America). Filipinos while being largely Catholic are really more tribal and (Malay)asian, which explains their lurch to the conservative side with Duterte and vigilante war on drugs. You can see this for example looking at the animist art in Peru or any South American country, compared to Philippines art which is more pragmatic and adopting novel themes relative to recent modern events. Asians are boring, conservative, modernization focused, business focused, and pragmatic.

We are looking a divide in the country based around those fundamentalist Protestant cultures the represented the core of American values when I was young. The Liberals in the North East (and now West coast) have always been "city slickers" to us in the Deep South (I was born in New Orleans). The imported Latinos on average are liberal.

Note my parents are liberal (which is probably why they moved away from Louisiana), and I am more conservative because I identified more with my grandparents who were conservative Protestants.

Re: California lealised Pot for recreational use

Congratulations California.

This will lead to a fracturing of the USA. We will not have one nation after 2032.

I loved the climate in California when I lived there. But alas the culture has gone bezerk liberals. Hope the western and southern portions of California (with the people as in Pompeii) falls off into the Pacific Ocean with a giant severing of the fault lines.

Let the mass interstate migration begin!

The lunatic socialists (liberals) are going to destroy themselves in a clusterfuck, so get out of their way (move to where they don't have control and solidify our conservative political power):

Let one government come up with a new idea how to extort money from the public, and it spreads like a contagion. Now California will begin issuing tickets to speeding bicyclists as well. I suppose you will soon need a license and then they can threaten to revoke your riding privileges. Will there be a license now for children to ride a bike? Next we will be looking at speeding tickets for walking because that will cause us to breath more and that might impact global warming. We are living in a war zone where government is out to just extort us for whatever nonsense it can think of next. Just how much more will the people take?

Armstrong is referring to his prior blog about France doing that.

[iamnotback]

@iamnotback,
what is your prediction on the price of Bitcoin? I don't ask when, only how high. Secondly, what's your view on how price and adoption can/cannot be held down/up by the block size/segwit/lightning/whatever they are cooking there?

I haven't tried to analyze (i.e. study chart and other factors such as historic examples of technology adoption) how high I think the price will go, but let's roughly say I presume at least 10X higher than its ATH (not that likely high in 2017 though).

Regarding resolution of technical issues of Bitcoin, they will be dealt with either in Bitcoin or an altcoin, and if the latter then Bitcoin is the onramp from fiat to altcoins, so Bitcoin will go up regardless.

You may also wish to read the research I am doing to understand I have a pretty good grasp on what the technical solutions are going to be (I actually think my design is the solution):

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1671480.msg16837201#msg16837201

If the solution comes from an altcoin, then those who buy it at the beginning are likely to see 1000X gains. Yes I am promoting my work. I am. But I believe this to be a correct statement. Nevertheless we don't know whether the solution will come to Bitcoin and/or to which altcoins. We'll see. But the solutions will work themselves out.

[iamnotback]

Those of you who would have sold gold a couple of weeks ago when I was urging you to do so, would be smiling instead of frowning.

Dollar & USA Stocks up, bonds, gold and Europe down (thus interest rates up).

Bet against Armstrong's international capital flows themes at your peril as it is all playing out as his computer model said it would:

Very interesting that much media coverage surrounding Europe today have claimed the Trump rally has faded already. Core European indices drifted into negative territory and closing -0.25% but the UK’s FTSE and Spain’s IBEX were both down around 1.4%. The market is reacting to the USD strength certainly against the Euro as we see the capital flows begin to increase.

The US markets continued yesterdays move opening over 200 points higher on the DOW whilst maintaining volume. What was encouraging was that having seen new highs the rest of the day remained in that area eventually closing a tad higher on the day. NASDAQ had a volatile day with some profit-taking in some expensive and more popular stocks which briefly took it down 2% in a move but managed to hold and even saw a small bounce. We continued to see previous safe-haven asset class positions be unwound with gold falling another $15 today closing around $1257.

Treasuries were sold yet again with US 10’s adding another 10bp to close 2.15%.

[iamnotback]

Divorce is the only solution! Both the liberals and conservatives are coming to the realization that they utterly hate each other and can never live in harmony.

http://themillenniumreport.com/2016/11/no-matter-who-won-the-2016-election-has-exposed-a-terrible-truth/

[deisik]

Note how the States Hillary won (or very close votes and/or many Latinos) are also significantly correlated with the legalized-for-recreational-use marijuana states (legal for medical use isn't the same issue):

http://www.fox5ny.com/news/216285833-story

This portends the future geographical split of the USA into autonomous regions as portended by Armstrongs computer model.

And what Armstrong's computer says about the odds of the US Electoral College who (at least, some part of) might violate their pledge to vote for Trump, and Hillary gets elected instead of Donald? I know that there was not a single case where faithless electors had changed the outcome of the presidential elections, but there still were a number of them who voted against their candidate in the end, after all. Given that the majority of Trump's own Republican party leaders are heavily against him, could such an event happen for the first time? A black swan of all swans? I'm not very familiar with the electoral system of the US, but I think that an outcome like this could potentially lead to or kick off the split Armstrong is talking about. Would Texas reconcile themselves with such an outrage?

I'm also inclined to think that the US is going the path of the late USSR with an inevitable disintegration and collapse

[iamnotback]

Note how the States Hillary won (or very close votes and/or many Latinos) are also significantly correlated with the legalized-for-recreational-use marijuana states (legal for medical use isn't the same issue):

http://www.fox5ny.com/news/216285833-story

This portends the future geographical split of the USA into autonomous regions as portended by Armstrongs computer model.

And what Armstrong's computer says about the odds of the the US Electoral College who (at least, some part of) might violate their pledge to vote for Trump, and Hillary gets elected instead of Donald? I know that there was not a single case where faithless electors had changed the outcome of the presidential elections, but there still were a number of them who voted against their candidate after all. Given that the majority of Trump's own Republican party leaders are heavily against him, could such an event happen for the first time? A black swan of all swans? I'm not very familiar with the electoral system of the US, but I think that an outcome like this could potentially lead to or kick off the split Armstrong is talking about. Would Texas reconcile themselves with such an outrage?

I'm also inclined to think that the US is going the path of the late USSR with an inevitable disintegration and collapse

I also contemplated that black swan, but based on signals and actions of the MSM and the Establishment politicians since the election, I think that black swan is not ordained by TPTB.

My read on the situation is TPTB are trying to incite the hate between the liberals and the conservatives:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/trump-protests-reveal-their-own-hatred/

I think it is more effective in fomenting hate if the liberals aren't able to achieve an overthrow via the Electorial College. The liberals are the more irrational ones. So you want them to fume for 4 years ready to explode in anger in 2020 or before. And the conservatives are not going to back down again. The lines in the sand have been drawn. Civil war has begun in the USA.

https://www.change.org/p/electoral-college-electors-electoral-college-make-hillary-clinton-president-on-december-19?recruiter=631333820&utm_source=share_petition&utm_medium=copylink

The system of allowing States to vote as a bloc if they wish is to prevent a more biased State from subjugating a less biased one. It affirms the importance of the State demarcation.

[Thenoticer]

I agree with this analysis.

I wonder if the younger generations who use social networking and have grown up in a much less racist world then Soros or Rothchild will be harder to divide.

I wonder what the mass prozac pill popping epidemic will effect this division.

I wonder if the Simpsons forecasting the Trump presidency was a form of black magic.

[vokain]

I agree with this analysis.

I wonder if the younger generations who use social networking and have grown up in a much less racist world then Soros or Rothchild will be harder to divide.

I wonder what the mass prozac pill popping epidemic will effect this division.

I wonder if the Simpsons forecasting the Trump presidency was a form of black magic.

Not necessarily black magic. Artists tend to be sensitive to things without time. Likely just a very well connected subconscious.
Fluffy reading but kind of gets at what I mean: http://highexistence.com/carl-jung-artistic-impulse/

Also relevant:
 

I have recently started reading a book titled the Way of God: Derech Hashem

It was originally written over two hundred and fifty years ago by Moshe Chaim Luzzatto. This book caught my attention because I heard it described by someone as the most systematic exposition of monotheism fundamentals ever written yet its author claimed he received direct instruction from an otherworldly being he identified as an angel. That was a very interesting juxtaposition so I picked up a copy. Below is a passage from the book.

We are well aware of physical things, and their natural properties and laws are well known. Spiritual concepts, on the other hand, are outside our realm of experience, and therefore cannot be adequately described...

One of these fundamentals is that everything in the physical world has a counterpart among the transcendental Forces. Every entity and process in the physical world is linked to these Forces... These Forces are therefore the roots of all physical things, and everything in the physical world is a branch and result of these Forces. The physical and the spiritual are thus bound together like links in a chain...

The existence and state of being of the physical universe thus emanate from these highest Forces and are dependent upon them. Whatever exists in the physical world is a result of something that takes place among these Forces. This is true of both what existed in the beginning and what transpires with the passage of time.

These Forces were the first things created, and they were arranged in various systems and placed in different domains. Everything that came about later was a result of this, following rules willed by God, linking these Forces to the physical world. Everything that happens in the past or present thus has its origin in processes taking place between these Forces.

The existence, state, pattern, and every other quality that exists among these Forces are a result of what is relevant to them by virtue of their essential nature. The existence, state, arrangement, and other phenomena involving physical things in turn depend on what is transmitted and reflected to them by these Forces, following the essential nature of these physical entities.

Once you acknowledge the possibility that information content is not orthogonal to our physical world you force a total reevaluation of the human condition. We must consider the possibility that rather than masters of the universe we are actually among the lowliest of the low.  

---


The younger generation grew up on propaganda, but we have the benefit of accelerated communication and propagation of knowledge. i think Tim Leary said something to the effect that by the 1990s, most Americans  would have grown listening to Bob Dylan and The Beatles and such and these people will increasingly change societal governance in alignment with the values these artists shared (Neuropolitique).

Edit: "By the year 1998 two-thirds of the members of the U.S. House of Representatives will have been, thirty years before, fans of Bob Dylan and the Beatles."
http://martinex.org/pdf/self-development/%7BEN%7D_%5BLeary,Wilson,Koopman%5D_Neuropolitique.pdf

[rpietila]

Predicting Trump victory was a slight touch of genius or opportunism.

But the map they got completely wrong, every key state was wrong.

I am leaning to "no supernatural involved" here.

[DigiLab]

Dollar & USA Stocks up, bonds, gold and Europe down (thus interest rates up).

Bet against Armstrong's international capital flows themes at your peril as it is all playing out as his computer model said it would:

In hindsight, it's rather amazing how the pieces are coming together, in accordance with Armstrong's claims.

[STT]

the dollar may turn down relative to "get off the grid" assets. USA stocks will likely peak also

Weaker dollar should also help earnings of those companies listed in dollar who are actually global entities.   USA stocks will go down if they are relying on a population more challenged then previously especially on discretionary spending.  Also financing is relevant if the current easy money and low rates should alter then it can influence stock values greatly where the base balance sheet is not already profitable and stable.
   As always mining firms will jump around alot but I think they will base around global growth not just dollar, since USA is a major producer and also now exporter of oil that could be the real wider influence of dollar movements possibly 

[tabnloz]

Those of you who would have sold gold a couple of weeks ago when I was urging you to do so, would be smiling instead of frowning.

Dollar & USA Stocks up, bonds, gold and Europe down (thus interest rates up).

Bet against Armstrong's international capital flows themes at your peril as it is all playing out as his computer model said it would:

Very interesting that much media coverage surrounding Europe today have claimed the Trump rally has faded already. Core European indices drifted into negative territory and closing -0.25% but the UK’s FTSE and Spain’s IBEX were both down around 1.4%. The market is reacting to the USD strength certainly against the Euro as we see the capital flows begin to increase.

The US markets continued yesterdays move opening over 200 points higher on the DOW whilst maintaining volume. What was encouraging was that having seen new highs the rest of the day remained in that area eventually closing a tad higher on the day. NASDAQ had a volatile day with some profit-taking in some expensive and more popular stocks which briefly took it down 2% in a move but managed to hold and even saw a small bounce. We continued to see previous safe-haven asset class positions be unwound with gold falling another $15 today closing around $1257.

Treasuries were sold yet again with US 10’s adding another 10bp to close 2.15%.

So if dollar & stocks up / bonds gold Euro down: how does that tie in with the Euro area banking problem and the rumors of a dollar shortage?

Wouldn't a dollar shortage lead to an inflow into bonds medium term? Sell existing bonds for needed US dollars now but still buy new issuances to maintain % (as China supposedly is doing)

Surely a banking drama would amplify the problems in Euro land - lets say an Italian bank finally dies or the referendum says No to reform, wouldn't this lead to contagion and initially send global stock markets plunging due to the interconnected nature of finance? I suppose this scenario could be the whiplash movement into Dow?

[tabnloz]

Those of you who would have sold gold a couple of weeks ago when I was urging you to do so, would be smiling instead of frowning.

Dollar & USA Stocks up, bonds, gold and Europe down (thus interest rates up).

Bet against Armstrong's international capital flows themes at your peril as it is all playing out as his computer model said it would:

Very interesting that much media coverage surrounding Europe today have claimed the Trump rally has faded already. Core European indices drifted into negative territory and closing -0.25% but the UK’s FTSE and Spain’s IBEX were both down around 1.4%. The market is reacting to the USD strength certainly against the Euro as we see the capital flows begin to increase.

The US markets continued yesterdays move opening over 200 points higher on the DOW whilst maintaining volume. What was encouraging was that having seen new highs the rest of the day remained in that area eventually closing a tad higher on the day. NASDAQ had a volatile day with some profit-taking in some expensive and more popular stocks which briefly took it down 2% in a move but managed to hold and even saw a small bounce. We continued to see previous safe-haven asset class positions be unwound with gold falling another $15 today closing around $1257.

Treasuries were sold yet again with US 10’s adding another 10bp to close 2.15%.

So if dollar & stocks up / bonds gold Euro down: how does that tie in with the Euro area banking problem and the rumors of a dollar shortage?

Wouldn't a dollar shortage lead to an inflow into bonds medium term? Sell existing bonds for needed US dollars now but still buy new issuances to maintain % (as China supposedly is doing)

Surely a banking drama would amplify the problems in Euro land - lets say an Italian bank finally dies or the referendum says No to reform, wouldn't this lead to contagion and initially send global stock markets plunging due to the interconnected nature of finance? I suppose this scenario could be the whiplash movement into Dow?

[iamnotback]

I wonder if the younger generations who use social networking and have grown up in a much less racist world then Soros or Rothchild will be harder to divide.

I think it may be also to some degree a generational civil war also. I do see some youth in support of Trump. I don't know to what extent youth from conservative families have maintained their resistance to liberalism in pop culture and social media. (I haven't done any statistical research on this)

I don't think the divide is really about race, as much as it is about the general notion that liberals think there is a promised land of perfection here on earth and conservatives think it doesn't exist or is only in heaven.

i think Tim Leary said something to the effect that by the 1990s, most Americans  would have grown listening to Bob Dylan and The Beatles and such and these people will increasingly change societal governance in conformity with these values (Neuropolitique).

Edit: "By the year 1998 two-thirds of the members of the U.S. House of Representatives will have been, thirty years before, fans of Bob Dylan and the Beatles."

Yeah the themes of many songs from Bob Dylan and the Beatles were about making a perfect world here on earth, such as John Lennon's "Imagine". I grew up on that music! I loved it. But I grew up with a very difficult, tumultuous life (not spoiled like the 2nd batch of kids of the boomers, I was born when my parents were age 20), so I identify with pragmatism. I did let my emotions wander a bit on "imagine no possessions, I wonder if you can, not need for greed or hunger ... sharing the entire world and the world will live as one". I was a dreamer for long enough to cry a tear and satiate my emotions and then it was back to harsh realities of my life. I didn't have enough time to wander off into a full fledged liberalism delusion. This is why most filipinos are more pragmatic than liberal, even if they do believe in sharing, it is mostly with their family and tribe, not the entire world. I still love to listening to John Lennon's song for 15 - 20 minutes over and over. But eventually I have to get back to coding, else I soon won't be able to eat and deal with my health problem.

In other words, liberals think we can improve the world by doing more with social governance (see the demonstrations in Oregon after HRC's defeat). Conservatives think it is either in God's hands or a free market and they don't expect a perfection in nature. Conservatives are realists on earth shifting their idealistic dreams either to heaven (or such as in my case, accepting that idealism never exists and there is no better future rather just a different one).

Unfortunately the liberals don't realize their dream ends up as an absolute hell on earth.

Conservatives can also go too far with fundamentalism and create a hell also, such as the Spanish Inquisition but aren't those examples of corruptions of conservative values by the liberals pretending to be religious, i.e. wasn't it the State that was acting as the church? True conservatives mind to their own business and not the business of others. Fundamentalism is liberal (trying to achieve a perfection here on earth)!

In my case, if there is a heaven, I am not depending on it. It is God's decision and I am not going to worry myself about. I have this time on earth to do what ever I am going to do. I can try to do something which  I think some others might find valuable. I can try to enjoy my life and try to have a high ethics. What ever happens after that other than the decay of the dead physical body, it beyond my capability to know. I can contemplate my brain being exported to a computing device which is immortal. I don't know if that means it is sentient, as I have explained in my blog "Information Is Alive!" that I think evolution and sentience are inseparable. Perhaps when I have more free time to contemplate on this, I will arrive at a different insight.

I accept the imperfection of the human predicament. But unlike in the period from 2006 to just recently, I am no longer using that as an excuse to not be responsible for my own decisions.

[iamnotback]

Those of you who would have sold gold a couple of weeks ago when I was urging you to do so, would be smiling instead of frowning.

Dollar & USA Stocks up, bonds, gold and Europe down (thus interest rates up).

Bet against Armstrong's international capital flows themes at your peril as it is all playing out as his computer model said it would:

Very interesting that much media coverage surrounding Europe today have claimed the Trump rally has faded already. Core European indices drifted into negative territory and closing -0.25% but the UK’s FTSE and Spain’s IBEX were both down around 1.4%. The market is reacting to the USD strength certainly against the Euro as we see the capital flows begin to increase.

The US markets continued yesterdays move opening over 200 points higher on the DOW whilst maintaining volume. What was encouraging was that having seen new highs the rest of the day remained in that area eventually closing a tad higher on the day. NASDAQ had a volatile day with some profit-taking in some expensive and more popular stocks which briefly took it down 2% in a move but managed to hold and even saw a small bounce. We continued to see previous safe-haven asset class positions be unwound with gold falling another $15 today closing around $1257.

Treasuries were sold yet again with US 10’s adding another 10bp to close 2.15%.

So if dollar & stocks up / bonds gold Euro down: how does that tie in with the Euro area banking problem and the rumors of a dollar shortage?

Wouldn't a dollar shortage lead to an inflow into bonds medium term? Sell existing bonds for needed US dollars now but still buy new issuances to maintain % (as China supposedly is doing)

Surely a banking drama would amplify the problems in Euro land - lets say an Italian bank finally dies or the referendum says No to reform, wouldn't this lead to contagion and initially send global stock markets plunging due to the interconnected nature of finance? I suppose this scenario could be the whiplash movement into Dow?

Creates a demand for dollars. Dollar up, gold down.

USA stocks up because as dollar is appreciating, you want to be invested in assets denominated in dollars. Capital stampedes to follow where capital flows. Spiral up effect.

The opportunity cost of not selling bonds is why bonds are peaking in general globally (including the USA). Also outside the USA, the liquidity of even German bonds won't be able to match the liquidity of dollar denominated assets. Ditto within the USA as the tide turns to a booming stock market as the broad populace stampedes back into the stock market.

[iamnotback]

the dollar may turn down relative to "get off the grid" assets. USA stocks will likely peak also

Weaker dollar should also help earnings of those companies listed in dollar who are actually global entities.   USA stocks will go down if they are relying on a population more challenged then previously especially on discretionary spending.  Also financing is relevant if the current easy money and low rates should alter then it can influence stock values greatly where the base balance sheet is not already profitable and stable.

Agreed but this is 2018ish or so (maybe later) as the stampede into dollars (and USA stocks) reaches peak and then this deleterious effects of that strong dollar shift overtake the said effect and then gold is going to blast off.

[iamnotback]

Predicting Trump victory was a slight touch of genius or opportunism.

But the map they got completely wrong, every key state was wrong.

I am leaning to "no supernatural involved" here.

I had worked out far in advance the precise statistical reason Trump would win, which was turnout (which was also why it couldn't be measured in the pre-election surveys):

https://steemit.com/society/@anonymint/the-red-pill-blue-pill-election-nyc-slumlord-vs-globalists