Martin Armstrong Discussion

[Yutikas_11920]

what are you going to eat in the Knowledge Age

When complex systems collapse, you go into a dark age, not a knowledge age.  You don't get an age of enlightenment from regional instability.  Sometimes I think Anonymint believes you can will things into existence, but willing a new renaissance into reality amongst a bunch of dindus looting the local storefronts isn't going to happen.

I'm inclined to agree with you, r0ach. You make a lot of sense recently. The odds of a dark age happening are much higher than those of a knowledge age. Even with the latter it's difficult to imagine the physical economy shrinking significantly, we're not spirits nor electrons, we need physical stuff to be produced, and by the way women (that includes every second western woman, and 99% of women in the rest of the world) love gold bracelets. Good luck trying to change women's innate, caveman age born desires

Hmm, I think that it's all true. But we should know that in the future I see that everything is digital and shaped paced it all also I think well thought out by experts working in the field of technological development. Because in the future that we need something fast and not spend a lot of energy. So all this is not something the wrong thing, but it would be better that we support something to realize the digital world. Because it is with the digital world grow, then we will have the advantage of a much larger and more fun

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[r0ach]

This FOFOA site makes some valid points, but the entire thing is based around the idea that jew bankers can revalue gold to some astronomical amount overnight while also keeping silver perma manipulated down, when too many large technical traders exist and will dump their new, expensive gold to buy the cheaper silver as a double up on their profits.  FOFOA also assumes there will be a world monopoly on power and no other foreign entities like China or Russia exist, and every nation/CB on earth will all manipulate gold up in unison and attempt to prevent silver from rising in unison (lol?).

There is a history going back where the west attempted to demonitize silver as a way to hurt China + India and others, so unless China, Russia, and India are all run by Jewish banking shills, they want revenge for that (especially China) and will want to see silver skyrocket to somewhat dilute the current evil banker wealth and power dynasty.  The world feels like the monolithic power structure is currently cracking and there will be more of a multipolar world, so if CB interests are not all aligned with one another, then they have a hard time rigging all markets the way they want to maximize their control.

The spread between US and China on silver right now seems to be a nice sign of this:

http://didthesystemcollapse.com/

China appears to be saying, hey, fuck your manipulation.  You manipulate down and we'll just buy it all.

[sidhujag]

This FOFOA site makes some valid points, but the entire thing is based around the idea that jew bankers can revalue gold to some astronomical amount overnight while also keeping silver perma manipulated down, when too many large technical traders exist and will dump their new, expensive gold to buy the cheaper silver as a double up on their profits.  FOFOA also assumes there will be a world monopoly on power and no other foreign entities like China or Russia exist, and every nation/CB on earth will all manipulate gold up in unison and attempt to prevent silver from rising in unison (lol?).

There is a history going back where the west attempted to demonitize silver as a way to hurt China + India and others, so unless China, Russia, and India are all run by Jewish banking shills, they want revenge for that (especially China) and will want to see silver skyrocket to somewhat dilute the current evil banker wealth and power dynasty.  The world feels like the monolithic power structure is currently cracking and there will be more of a multipolar world, so if CB interests are not all aligned with one another, then they have a hard time rigging all markets the way they want to maximize their control.

The spread between US and China on silver right now seems to be a nice sign of this:

http://didthesystemcollapse.com/

China appears to be saying, hey, fuck your manipulation.  You manipulate down and we'll just buy it all.

g'ahead and we'll just switch over to bitcoin or the likes and see your bag become worthless over night

Not me personally but perhaps what the western power elites have in mind.

[r0ach]

This FOFOA site makes some valid points, but the entire thing is based around the idea that jew bankers can revalue gold to some astronomical amount overnight while also keeping silver perma manipulated down, when too many large technical traders exist and will dump their new, expensive gold to buy the cheaper silver as a double up on their profits.  FOFOA also assumes there will be a world monopoly on power and no other foreign entities like China or Russia exist, and every nation/CB on earth will all manipulate gold up in unison and attempt to prevent silver from rising in unison (lol?).

There is a history going back where the west attempted to demonitize silver as a way to hurt China + India and others, so unless China, Russia, and India are all run by Jewish banking shills, they want revenge for that (especially China) and will want to see silver skyrocket to somewhat dilute the current evil banker wealth and power dynasty.  The world feels like the monolithic power structure is currently cracking and there will be more of a multipolar world, so if CB interests are not all aligned with one another, then they have a hard time rigging all markets the way they want to maximize their control.

The spread between US and China on silver right now seems to be a nice sign of this:

http://didthesystemcollapse.com/

China appears to be saying, hey, fuck your manipulation.  You manipulate down and we'll just buy it all.

g'ahead and we'll just switch over to bitcoin or the likes and see your bag become worthless over night

Not me personally but perhaps what the western power elites have in mind.

Who knows what the bankers will try.  Unlike what FOFOA claims, I have a feeling they are not that enthusiastic about pumping gold because countries like India own so much and the bankers have zero interest in empowering India to their level and turning a bunch of 3rd worlders into Slumdog millionaire.  They also aren't that anxious to pump gold for China and Russia.  

Just who owns the majority of Bitcoins out there?  Nobody has any clue for the most part.  Unless "Satoshi" is the DARPA stash of the US, it seems highly unlikely any country would try to force Bitcoin as settlement currency above metals because nobody has any clue what would happen or who benefits.  All actions in banking tend to revolve around pushing for things that benefit a handful of Zionist oligarchs in NYC, so if you think they've been buying them up over the years, feel free to hop on the Bitcoin train, but nobody knows.  

Silver is the one thing where it doesn't even matter if the CBs bless it or not since the general public and technical traders will remonitize silver to the moon if they pump gold.  And you can see this trend has already been proven correct and FOFOA wrong with what's been going on so far.  CBs are pigs that believe they can control everything and pigs get slaughtered.

[sidhujag]

This FOFOA site makes some valid points, but the entire thing is based around the idea that jew bankers can revalue gold to some astronomical amount overnight while also keeping silver perma manipulated down, when too many large technical traders exist and will dump their new, expensive gold to buy the cheaper silver as a double up on their profits.  FOFOA also assumes there will be a world monopoly on power and no other foreign entities like China or Russia exist, and every nation/CB on earth will all manipulate gold up in unison and attempt to prevent silver from rising in unison (lol?).

There is a history going back where the west attempted to demonitize silver as a way to hurt China + India and others, so unless China, Russia, and India are all run by Jewish banking shills, they want revenge for that (especially China) and will want to see silver skyrocket to somewhat dilute the current evil banker wealth and power dynasty.  The world feels like the monolithic power structure is currently cracking and there will be more of a multipolar world, so if CB interests are not all aligned with one another, then they have a hard time rigging all markets the way they want to maximize their control.

The spread between US and China on silver right now seems to be a nice sign of this:

http://didthesystemcollapse.com/

China appears to be saying, hey, fuck your manipulation.  You manipulate down and we'll just buy it all.

g'ahead and we'll just switch over to bitcoin or the likes and see your bag become worthless over night

Not me personally but perhaps what the western power elites have in mind.

Who knows what the bankers will try.  Unlike what FOFOA claims, I have a feeling they are not that enthusiastic about pumping gold because countries like India own so much and the bankers have zero interest in empowering India to their level and turning a bunch of 3rd worlders into Slumdog millionaire.  They also aren't that anxious to pump gold for China and Russia.  

Just who owns the majority of Bitcoins out there?  Nobody has any clue for the most part.  Unless "Satoshi" is the DARPA stash of the US, it seems highly unlikely any country would try to force Bitcoin as settlement currency above metals because nobody has any clue what would happen or who benefits.  All actions in banking tend to revolve around pushing for things that benefit a handful of Zionist oligarchs in NYC, so if you think they've been buying them up over the years, feel free to hop on the Bitcoin train, but nobody knows.  

Silver is the one thing where it doesn't even matter if the CBs bless it or not since the general public and technical traders will remonitize silver to the moon if they pump gold.  And you can see this trend has already been proven correct and FOFOA wrong with what's been going on so far.  CBs are pigs that believe they can control everything and pigs get slaughtered.

Market is still bigger than anyone one person.. so it will end up using the most efficient cash system it can find and implement into society.. the drive towards ideal money never ended... gold wasnt ideal because its too heavy and it meant todays rich can benefit at expense of tomorrow. Central bank targeting is more efficient and ideal over gold backed inflation... and cryptocurrency with some baked in inflation metric is even more ideal because or its public auditable properties and claims of work that cannot be forged... so sooner or later gold will be shiny toy your grandma loves but just not worth much

[OROBTC]

...

New articles from Armstrong might be of interest.


https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/indias-gold-confiscation-turkeys-war-on-currency/

India and Turkey are discussed, their mismanagement of their economies.  I have read (Zero Hedge) that the whole cash elimination (R500 and R1000 -- their largest bank notes, worth very little in US$) is causing HUGE suffering in India.

Yet, Venezuela is trying the same thing (banning their 100 bolivares)!

Turkey is pushing their people to NOT buy US$.  Erdogan looks like he is going very dictatorial...


https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/jill-steins-the-great-con/

Jill Stein (discussed in the link) is pushing more of the political warfare that the whole Democrat Party is, this may end poorly if any of this BS (vote recounts, Electoral College challenges, etc.) gets bad.

[And they asked TRUMP, like he was the Bad Guy, if he would accept the election results...]

[deisik]

Market is still bigger than anyone one person.. so it will end up using the most efficient cash system it can find and implement into society.. the drive towards ideal money never ended... gold wasnt ideal because its too heavy and it meant todays rich can benefit at expense of tomorrow. Central bank targeting is more efficient and ideal over gold backed inflation... and cryptocurrency with some baked in inflation metric is even more ideal because or its public auditable properties and claims of work that cannot be forged... so sooner or later gold will be shiny toy your grandma loves but just not worth much

It may be more ideal toward a store of value property of money, but certainly not as a currency

It is implicitly assumed that Bitcoin will be appreciating in the future (due to supply of new bitcoins tapering off eventually), and that is good for a store of value. This property contributes to hoarding. On the other hand, hoarding is the opposite of spending, they are mutually exclusive. To be a good means of exchange, money should be circulated, but the optimum seems to be somewhere in the positive territory of inflation rate, since money depreciating at a slow and low rate discourages saving and contributes to spending (while higher inflation rates would obviously disrupt circulation)

[r0ach]

and cryptocurrency with some baked in inflation metric is even more ideal

This is not true for several reasons.

#1 - There's no way cryptocurrency resides lower on the base of Exter's pyramid than real, existing commodity currency like gold and silver.  So cryptocurrency will always just be the bad money that drives out good money.  A civilization that skips the middleman and only uses good money is obviously more efficient since everyone will just be wasting time and resources constantly arbing between each one.  I mean gold and silver circulated in native form as coins.  Any digital form would just be a receipt to claim your metals in person.  Cryptocurrency is not trustless so there is no benefit or difference in efficiency.

#2 - The only way you can actually build a valid cryptocurrency is by usury proofing it.  The ability to practice usury in a cryptocurrency is just a sign you've created a Rube Goldberg machine that accomplishes nothing as I talk about here:

Let me start off by telling a story.  At the height of peak-altcoin, a guy I know released some garbage coin with the sole purpose of trying to make money in a pump and dump.  I told him, hey, why are you making this stupid scamcoin?  His response was, "just what exactly are we trying to do here?"  (i.e. being involved in cryptocurrency in the first place).

Before you try to create or engineer something, you first have to actually identify the problem you're trying to solve.  The problem to solve is not decentralization, it's creating an alternative to rent seeking usury, aka slavery.

The current state of cryptocurrency consists of closed entropy systems like Peercoin, which are internalized proof of stake, and open entropy Bitcoin PoW systems, which are just externalized proof of stake in practice, not decentralized.  Both are stake based and stake based systems have the following attributes, they're designed around someone monopolizing a variable then practicing rent seeking usury on everyone else.

The internalized stake is basically world domination on cruise control and should be shunned by anyone who doesn't want to be a slave, while the open entropy system of Bitcoin tends to give you the same result when you're just externalizing your metaphorical stake into the Pareto principle of the real world.  This means cryptocurrency solves really nothing in it's current state, and things like physical silver coins as a currency would be vastly superior in terms of both decentralization and avoidance of usury or seigniorage fee.

Having said that, if you were to try and improve on cryptocurrency in some way, you would be required to remove the stake variable entirely.  A system where you can't gain capital by leveraging assets on cruise control with no human intervention or attendance required.  The only way to do that off the top of my head is either unprofitable PoW (which seems like it wouldn't work in practice) or by having all senders of transactions solve some type of decentralized captcha or other proof of work that cannot be put on cruise control for profit.

[r0ach]

The moral of the story is, take into account that Ted Kaczynski is right and all technology only leads to further centralization and loss of freedom, and you'd see you likely have to go low tech (physical gold and silver coins circulated in native form) to have decentralization rather than hopelessly trying to do so with some form of algorithmic computer money which is a medium (digital space) whose traits inherently prevent you from accomplishing said goal.  It's like trying to barbeque some food using the ocean as a grill.  

Programmers have a god complex so they tend to overlook inconveniences like this and just pretend all problems can be solved or worked around = creates Rube Goldberg machine to obfuscate what's actually going on.  Or create a system that appears to work as advertised until it reaches endgame equilibrium state and turns into something completely different.

[iamnotback]

Anonymint always says, ... Oh, don't buy Bitcoin, that's not good either.

See my next post for the proof that you are lying. Even when I was wondering if BTC might follow gold down to a lower low (before I realized a couple months ago that was incorrect), I hadn't become bearish on crypto-currency going forward. I was merely trying to call the bottom of the "mountain of hope" in the first stage of an adoption cycle for new technology.

The moral of the story is, take into account that Ted Kaczynski is right and all technology only leads to further centralization and loss of freedom

Wrong! You are going to be so far behind by the end of 2017. You equate what is "creative destruction" giving birth to something more efficient and better, as a death.

I have only been thinking A LITTLE about when & how a Knowledge Age might hit.  For it to affect most of us, I think that is fairly far-off into the future.  Especially in the Third World and among illiterates.

This is how fast it changes:

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/506466/given-tablets-but-no-teachers-ethiopian-children-teach-themselves/

It is already started in the developing world more than a decade ago. You under appreciate how much the Internet has changed the world. I was in the Philippines in 1991 and couldn't even communicate to another island faster than a snail mail 14 day turnaround (couldn't get an icecube in my drink either!). Now the students don't even use textbooks in college here, they just learn everything on the Internet. Ditto Africa.

You seem to think the Knowledge Age means you can only be a programmer. Rather it includes all forms of human production with technology and our brain. Include social media marketer, game designer, social networking power user,  etc..

If you want to see the Knowledge Age in action, go hang out with some youth in their daily lives especially in the developing and third world. The Knowledge Age is so far advanced already and you are completely blind to it, which is amazing. I guess you guys spend all your time fondling your gold and don't actually interact with the youth in their activities.

Gold might not be good forever and ever, but it should be good for me, my child and (with luck) any grandchildren...

Already dead and dying very fast to be entirely useless except for large players in the Old World (i.e. not the virtual economy) withering dinosaur physical/nation-state/NWO economy within another 10-20 years or so.

Precious metals are already long-since dead as unit-of-exchange. The governments are now going to kill it as a store-of-value and the Millennials are not going to support your tinfoil hat delusions. They've already switched to the Knowledge Age and everything virtual. They will adopt crypto-currency and digital currency instead.

If they took the DOW to 30,000 as a function of enormous debt levels ... and metals will skyrocket

DOW will go to 38,000+.

I have explained the Martin's Armstrong thesis numerous times (which is proving to be correct!), but you seem to ignore it and repeat the same nonsense misinterpretation over and over again.

The dollar and USA stocks are headed higher until the peak sometime in 2018, not because of Trump's stimulus, but because of the short dollar vortex which is sending all the international capital flowing into the dollar. Trump is just a kickstarter to accelerate that vortex.

Remember international capital follows international capital. The dollar short (carry trade unwinding) vortex will drive it bonkers.

Dollar up, gold down. Until 2018 when this vortex effect peaks.

what are you going to eat in the Knowledge Age

When complex systems collapse, you go into a dark age, not a knowledge age.  You don't get an age of enlightenment from regional instability.  Sometimes I think Anonymint believes you can will things into existence, but willing a new renaissance into reality amongst a bunch of dindus looting the local storefronts isn't going to happen.

Don't compare apples to digital copies.

You are making a category error. The Knowledge Age will continue growing exponentially regardless if the physical/tangible economy is collapsing.

Pay attention to the word "bifurcation" in my prior email to Armstrong which OROBTC shared on my behalf.

Even with the latter it's difficult to imagine the physical economy shrinking significantly, we're not spirits nor electrons, we need physical stuff to be produced

It is the debt based, fixed capital investment, financialization economy that will collapse. And that takes down the dominant physical economy. But yeah, the physical economy will rebound, but the Knowledge Age will not even slow down during all of this. It will be growing exponentially.

There is a history going back where the west attempted to demonitize silver as a way to hurt China + India and others

Which I wrote about 9 years ago when I used to be a tinfoil hat, but now don't agree with everything I wrote then.

silver

g'ahead and we'll just switch over to bitcoin or the likes and see your bag become worthless over night

Silver is the one thing where it doesn't even matter if the CBs bless it or not since the general public and technical traders will remonitize silver to the moon if they pump gold.

Silver is never coming back as a unit-of-exchange. The red quoted text is what is going to happen.

It is implicitly assumed that Bitcoin will be appreciating in the future (due to supply of new bitcoins tapering off eventually), and that is good for a store of value. This property contributes to hoarding. On the other hand, hoarding is the opposite of spending, they are mutually exclusive. To be a good means of exchange, money should be circulated, but the optimum seems to be somewhere in the positive territory of inflation rate, since money depreciating at a slow and low rate discourages saving and contributes to spending (while higher inflation rates would obviously disrupt circulation)

I wrote about this:

I wrote about this yesterday:

https://steemit.com/blockchain/@anonymint/future-of-decentralized-currency-is-not-bitcoin
https://medium.com/@shelby_78386/future-of-decentralized-currency-is-not-bitcoin-eec2e9c39a0a

This is not true for several reasons.

#1 - There's no way cryptocurrency resides lower on the base of Exter's pyramid than real, existing commodity currency like gold and silver.  So cryptocurrency will always just be the bad money that drives out good money.  A civilization that skips the middleman and only uses good money is obviously more efficient since everyone will just be wasting time and resources constantly arbing between each one.  I mean gold and silver circulated in native form as coins.  Any digital form would just be a receipt to claim your metals in person.  Cryptocurrency is not trustless so there is no benefit or difference in efficiency.

#2 - The only way you can actually build a valid cryptocurrency is by usury proofing it.  The ability to practice usury in a cryptocurrency is just a sign you've created a Rube Goldberg machine that accomplishes nothing as I talk about here:

r0ach you are wrong on every point. But not in a way that would be obvious to you.

You will eat your hat soon...

(I won't bother to explain to you now bcz it is a complex, nuanced topic, and talking will only slow me down)

... you'd see you likely have to go low tech (physical gold and silver coins circulated in native form) to have decentralization rather than hopelessly trying to do so with some form of algorithmic computer money which is a medium (digital space) whose traits inherently prevent you from accomplishing said goal.  It's like trying to barbeque some food using the ocean as a grill.  

Programmers have a god complex so they tend to overlook inconveniences like this and just pretend all problems can be solved or worked around = creates Rube Goldberg machine to obfuscate what's actually going on.  Or create a system that appears to work as advertised until it reaches endgame equilibrium state and turns into something completely different.

I am a unique programmer, because I also take an interest in economics and other disciplines including marketing. That doesn't mean I am the smartest mathematician, cryptographer, etc.. (and I am surely not!) It means I have a knack for creative paradigm-shifts and thinking out-of-the-box, because I assimilate far ranging disciplines of knowledge.

Prepare to be proven wrong.

[iamnotback]

Those fools who ignored me when I told you to sell gold at $1362 before the election and to buy Bitcoin in the mid-$600s, are going to end up big losers if they keep listening to these idiot tinfoil hats such as r0ach and his nonsense silver argument. Gold and silver are both headed down the next 6 months to a year. You tinfoil hats are already 33+% less wealthy than those who followed me a couple months ago, and you will end up 67+% less wealthy before the end of 2017. (100% less wealthy would mean you have 0, so you can see how fast your wealth is evaporating)

Those who ignored me when I explained the exact reason (turnout) Trump would win (in a Steemit blog post)...

$1300 in 2017, probably within 6 months or less. We've broken out above $788 Bitfinex-hack high, accelerating, opening wedge, and two flag patterns. This is uber bullish.

Re: is it time to start seriously talking about a $5000 BTC

I expected a correction because the price went too high too quickly. Most of the time when we see it spike high like that, it will come back a little.

They will play you as well, because you'll be the one who sells too early when the price rocket goes into a phase transition run to ATHs. They will eventually do that after they done shaking weak hands out. Your stance can be characterized as another form of weak hand because of selling too soon into a bull run.

The first bubble to $1200 in 2013 was the first hump of the typical new technology invesment. The second major hump is the big enchilada and you should never sell except possibly to trade to altcoins to increase your BTC, if you are so inclined and are astute at such speculation.

BTC appears to be currently at either the early 2007 or the late 2009 point on that Amazon chart.

If we are at the late 2009 correlation, then $1000 will be scaled in 2017 and we will not go back below $1000 after that.

And yes something in range of $2500 - $5000 over the next couple of years looks plausible and even likely.

Just look at the events around us to see what is accelerating:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1703363.msg17077372#msg17077372
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1699911.msg17077124#msg17077124
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1703213.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1687448.msg17056883#msg17056883
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg16842246#msg16842246
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg16921886#msg16921886
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg16972102#msg16972102


It Is Just Time.

Time is upon us for BTC to make another big move up. Don't be late to board the train because you are irrationally too cautious:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1663070.msg17049006#msg17049006

Sentiment in this thread is very cautious and scared.

That is extremely bullish.

We are climbing the wall of worry now. Everybody is still remembering the $1200 to $150 crash.

When the "Bitcoin to $100,000" (to da moon) mania returns, that is the time to become cautious.

Any one of you is welcome to quote this PM in its entirety or partially in order to share with others and/or post to Martin Armstrong thread. I am not posting publicly until my altcoin project is ready in testnet. Don't reply to me in PM, as I will delete and not read. If you want to reply, quote this and post to the MA thread.

If we have a deflationary crash rather than hyperinflation, the DOW floor is around 6000.  The historical DOW to gold ratio seems to trend to around 3-5:1, so even in a deflationary crash the value of gold can still go to $2000, which would probably take silver to a 30:1 GSR of $66.



TLDR2:  Trust nobody, especially some greaseball with a pinky ring named Martin Armstrong (MA).

According to MA's long-standing prediction (since as far back as 2012 I remember reading), the DOW will got to at least 24,000 while gold will sink to at least $850 (over the next 1 - 2 years). So the ratio will rise to 20 - 25 from 15 in the near-term.

After that (roughly 2018ish), the dollar will peak (as the rest of the world is in the abyss due to the strong/short dollar vortex which has sucked all intl capital into the dollar and USA stock market), and then we will see the panic into gold (and perhaps also crypto-currencies). It is more in the realm of 2020 - 2024 that we will see gold attempt the 3 - 5 ratio. But it will be a deflationary crisis with a monetary reset so look for a collapse of the DOW into perhaps 15,000 - 25,000 range with gold $5000 maximum.

Mark my words. This prediction will be very accurate. Don't forget I told you first.

Now the problem for tinfoil hats is although precious metals which eventually rise (after they first crash anew), they will be so incredibly outlawed in every way, that you will not profit on your investment. If you buy paper metal, you will be caught in capital controls and excessive taxation. If you buy physical metals, you will be a money launderer and the best you can hope for is to either bury your metal in the ground to pretend you don't have any and thus never collect on the gains (until the price has long since crashed in the epoch circa 2030+ realm) or it will be taxed excessively and penalized as money laundering with a handslap when you try to take profits such that you will walk away a big loser. I've been warning since 2010 that the tinfoil hatters are going to end up looking like the idiots that they are:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article20327.html

Tinfoil hats are antiquated.

The future is highly customized goods & services. The commodities will continue to decline inexorably is relative value in the economy, eventually becoming virtually worthless.

The future economy is software (including all forms of authorship such as media, 3D designs, etc) and knowledge creation.

The economy will be virtual and not physical.

That is why you invest in crypto-currency, not gold. Gold is at the end of its utility as we are transitioning away from a physical economy. That is why gold is dying. You have the wrong antiquated model.

Precious metals are losing their basis of popular support. You will have no one remaining to stand up for you and defend your right to trade these for fiat without being regulated.

The Bible will not be wrong about gold, You will throw (eventually) it into the street (to prevent yourself from being imprisoned and tortured by the Millennials who won't understand your terrorism).

[freshman777]

Meanwhile in India there are 50% premiums for physical gold from the spot paper price.
Your predictions of paper gold don't matter, only metal is gold, paper is paper.

The Bible may be right about gold but it also says nobody knows when is the end of times, could be a couple of thousand years from now. If you believe what the Bible says, believe both things not only what's convenient for you to believe.

They shall cast their silver in the streets, and their gold shall be removed: their silver and their gold shall not be able to deliver them in the day of the wrath of the LORD: they shall not satisfy their souls, neither fill their bowels: because it is the stumblingblock of their iniquity.

But of that day and hour knoweth no [man], no, not the angels of heaven, but my Father only.

Besides, this is not specifically about gold and silver, but any riches men possess on Judgement Day. Your ingenious cryptocoin for microtransactions unfortunately too.

[iamnotback]

It is going to be funny watching the tinfoil hats scream when the spot price is so high in the future, but it classifies them as a money launderer for them to sell and/or the taxes are 90+% (after penalties and fines for not reporting, etc)..

I suppose the tinfoil hats are planning a future life as criminals constantly under threat of being hunted by the law and imprisoned. You are being isolated as an extremist cult by society-at-large.

Gold above small quantities as jewelry per individual (married females can have more than men) is now illegal in India.

The society is killing precious metals as a store-of-value. It is over. We are moving on to digital currency...

[iamnotback]

It really depends on your definition of "a collapse scenario" are we talking fiat currency collapse of a single country, a global collapse of fiat currencies, a single country/global collapse of government systems due to wide scale emergency like you see in horror movies, etc?

Two types. Collapse of the financial system with capital controls that causes much hardship, but doesn't go feral. The more severe type of collapse to consider is chaos and warlordism such as the Serbian crisis.

First of all, Bitcoin/digital currencies are still very much in their infancy. Right now, its all a proof of concept. If you want to claim that digital currencies are stable enough to overtake the traditional fiat system, or replace them in case of some major global issue, I would disagree with that, and I'm speaking as someone who is a huge fan of cryptocurrencies.

Change is much faster in the Knowledge Age. A quarterback doesn't throw the football to where the receiver is now, but where he will be in 2 seconds from now (which is many meters away).

If you think in a scenario major enough to interrupt global economies/governments, that people will continue to keep network infrastructure maintained and the blockchain moving along, I'd beg to differ.

The elite will never let their control grid go down. They will engineer a monetary reset with the necessary suffering and chaos to get nation-states to acquiesce to the SDRs. Jim Rickards latest book applies.

Digital currencies heavily rely on major communication services and the power grid which would be disrupted in a global catastrophe.

Depends on the type of crisis. Unless we enter a full scale global hot war, we are not going to have chaos and warlordism in every country in the world. No the more likely scenario is the one Jim Rickards explains.

Things that are not necessary if you are trying to survive. In addition, if you take development and stagnate it because the Bitcoin dev teams are busy trying to keep the wolves out of their chicken coops, best case scenario, Bitcoin would be put on a backburner until things restore themselves.

Actually not. Humans work in teams with maximum division-of-labor. Someone gathers food, while someone else is the solving technical problems.

Bitcoin is relatively difficult to get into even today. You need a couple hundred dollar smartphone or laptop at the very least, electricity, internet connection, and relatively elevated technical knowledge.

Nope. I made $7000+ blogging on Steemit and converted it to BTC at poloniex. Things are changing so fast, you aren't even paying attention.

Silver is very heavily involved in medicine, antibiotics, etc, so I think it would fare pretty well as well.

Handwaving. That has nothing to do with function as money.

If we are talking about a collapse situation where trust is lost in government currencies, and they collapse but there is no major chaos, I think Bitcoin and metals will do pretty well.

Digital currency will do exceptionally well. Precious metals are going to fail you in every way. Mark my word.

Otherwise, I'd invest in Solar cells, copper/silver/gold, steel, gun powder, medicines, and food/water.

Agreed, if enter that Madmax type of collapse.

As a side note, government confiscation of metals is something that shady coin dealers try to threaten metal newbies with to get them to buy higher premium lower metal content collectible stuff that they make higher margins on. Its not going to happen, enforcement would be wayyyyy too difficult, and it would be incredibly dangerous to try and enforce. Even when gold was "confiscated" in the 1933 it was to essentially invalidate gold certificates. It didn't really stop too many people from holding gold, otherwise you wouldn't see any pre 1933 gold coins in circulation.

They won't need to confiscate it. You will willingly throw it into the street. Mark my word.

Possession of precious metals in large quantities for anything other than token amounts of ornamental or collectors use, will have you labeled as a money launderer, a miser 1% rich who steals from 99% of society, and a bad person who doesn't benefit society. The society-at-large  (even your own children) will despise you. The government will make sensationalized case examples.

You will have no way to trade it at a profit. And you will risk incriminating yourself.

The institutional support (vaults, dealers, etc) will also disappear and those that remain become so highly regulated.

It simply won't be worth it.

[OROBTC]

...

Wow, nice post iamnotback.

I will only address a few of your points.

1)  Yeah, the pace of change certainly has been picking up.  Especially technological change, but cultural, political and financial as well.  This is not a new idea of course (Toffler: Future Shock, from the 1970s).  I would expect (again, not new) change to accelerate.

2)  A Knowledge Age would likely make such change even faster.  Drawing that much closer to a Singularity.

3)  I have not been idle in my BTC buying over the last several weeks...  While I do not have active counterparts with whom I can buy BTC from, I did buy some from Circle (before their demise) as well as the "cheapest BTC ATM in town" (9%).  So I am now ahead, in the black.  At least on paper, er, at least in electrons...

4)  I agree that the SHTF scenarios have receded somewhat, as well as in intensity in part at least due to TRUMP.  The US$ being so strong is also lessening my worries about the immediate economy.  When our "friends" on the Socialist D-Team look like they may come back into power, then at least I will have had already made a start in preparing for them.

5)  As per my diversity in investments, yes, I hold some stocks, and some real estate.

6)  We will see what happens re precious metals.  My bias is towards GOLD, as silver has never in recent times counted as "money", NO ONE cared in 1965 when they changed our dimes & quarters to "clad".  NO ONE is clamoring for silver coins to be minted.

* * *

freshman777

The Bible is written in its fashion (esp. the KJV) because its language is symbolic.  Times were different back then, so the actual words meant for contemporaries THEN.  But, the Bible was written so that every person in every era could read & understand it by looking carefully at what the authors meant to be communicated through the millennia.

Agree with you re the Human Soul being more important than any form of money.  But, the Bible does not condemn wealth, just bad thought and bad behavior.

It is not worth getting us involved in interpretations of the Bible, there are plenty of other places for that.  I'll drop this subject here, as I think most really don't care, and there are plenty of other places for people to discuss this who DO care.

[trollercoaster]

An interesting read: http://inresco.org/bosniaf/words_bosnia.html

[freshman777]

freshman777

The Bible is written in its fashion (esp. the KJV) because its language is symbolic.  Times were different back then, so the actual words meant for contemporaries THEN.  But, the Bible was written so that every person in every era could read & understand it by looking carefully at what the authors meant to be communicated through the millennia.

Agree with you re the Human Soul being more important than any form of money.  But, the Bible does not condemn wealth, just bad thought and bad behavior.

It is not worth getting us involved in interpretations of the Bible, there are plenty of other places for that.  I'll drop this subject here, as I think most really don't care, and there are plenty of other places for people to discuss this who DO care.

I agree we shouldn't get involved in interpretations of the Bible, but it wasn't me who started this. I was commenting on Anonymint's cherry picking verses in the Bible that suit his agenda and his ignoring the context and other verses that go against his "predictions".

[iamnotback]

Re: Another reason for a sustainable rally

I wrote about this yesterday:

https://steemit.com/blockchain/@anonymint/future-of-decentralized-currency-is-not-bitcoin
https://medium.com/@shelby_78386/future-of-decentralized-currency-is-not-bitcoin-eec2e9c39a0a

At the above linked blogs I wrote, pay attention to the following quote:

The other aspect of decentralization is how to onboard the masses into a decentralized unit-of-account. Bitcoin is obviously going to own the role as the on/off ramp between crypto-currency and centralized fiat to serve the investors, i.e. the reserve crypto-currency (which will likely continue to bolster the price of Bitcoin), but as a mass adoption on-ramp that is a choke point.

Bitcoin is becoming a reserve currency and conduit for everything in the ecosystem of blockchains and crypto-currrency.

Bitcoin doesn't actually have to scale to mass volume and instant transactions itself. The altcoins and payment  channels will do that. Bitcoin is the conduit for everything...

The reason for the price rise now.


Edit: Centralized scaling (which is an oxymoron) of Bitcoin can provide some limited amount of scaling. It won't scale out to Visa scale, but it will serve the function of BTC to become the reserve currency of crypto ecosystems.

[OROBTC]

...

Armstrong came out with an interesting (yet short!) piece on the real risk of Europe breaking up.  It seems that Juncker again is pusing a centralized solution to keep Europe together.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/europe-starting-to-break-apart/

Armstrong goes on to comment that that is evidence of Europe starting to break up.

We just came back from a visit to Europe (as tourists).  Part of our trip was in Germany.  And the river cruise patrons were mostly Americans.  But I heard ZERO about Euro-problems the whole time we  were there.

[sidhujag]

and cryptocurrency with some baked in inflation metric is even more ideal

This is not true for several reasons.

#1 - There's no way cryptocurrency resides lower on the base of Exter's pyramid than real, existing commodity currency like gold and silver.  So cryptocurrency will always just be the bad money that drives out good money.  A civilization that skips the middleman and only uses good money is obviously more efficient since everyone will just be wasting time and resources constantly arbing between each one.  I mean gold and silver circulated in native form as coins.  Any digital form would just be a receipt to claim your metals in person.  Cryptocurrency is not trustless so there is no benefit or difference in efficiency.

#2 - The only way you can actually build a valid cryptocurrency is by usury proofing it.  The ability to practice usury in a cryptocurrency is just a sign you've created a Rube Goldberg machine that accomplishes nothing as I talk about here:

Let me start off by telling a story.  At the height of peak-altcoin, a guy I know released some garbage coin with the sole purpose of trying to make money in a pump and dump.  I told him, hey, why are you making this stupid scamcoin?  His response was, "just what exactly are we trying to do here?"  (i.e. being involved in cryptocurrency in the first place).

Before you try to create or engineer something, you first have to actually identify the problem you're trying to solve.  The problem to solve is not decentralization, it's creating an alternative to rent seeking usury, aka slavery.

The current state of cryptocurrency consists of closed entropy systems like Peercoin, which are internalized proof of stake, and open entropy Bitcoin PoW systems, which are just externalized proof of stake in practice, not decentralized.  Both are stake based and stake based systems have the following attributes, they're designed around someone monopolizing a variable then practicing rent seeking usury on everyone else.

The internalized stake is basically world domination on cruise control and should be shunned by anyone who doesn't want to be a slave, while the open entropy system of Bitcoin tends to give you the same result when you're just externalizing your metaphorical stake into the Pareto principle of the real world.  This means cryptocurrency solves really nothing in it's current state, and things like physical silver coins as a currency would be vastly superior in terms of both decentralization and avoidance of usury or seigniorage fee.

Having said that, if you were to try and improve on cryptocurrency in some way, you would be required to remove the stake variable entirely.  A system where you can't gain capital by leveraging assets on cruise control with no human intervention or attendance required.  The only way to do that off the top of my head is either unprofitable PoW (which seems like it wouldn't work in practice) or by having all senders of transactions solve some type of decentralized captcha or other proof of work that cannot be put on cruise control for profit.

Please revisit my quoted sentence. It is a bit more subtle than you might have thought it was.

The mechanism design of bitcoin is lacking, because of 2 issues that arise as the natural incentive mechanism for securing and using the network respectively: selfish mining and undercutting. The conclusion of these is that "cryptocurrencies should make the block reward permanent and accept monetary inflation as inevitable". Coupled with the fact that Nash's ideal money concept uses the idea of inflation based on quality of the transfer metric we can arrive to my sentence I alluded to earlier. With cryptocurrencies it is indeed possible as I am going to prove with my own project in a few days.

https://freedom-to-tinker.com/2016/10/21/bitcoin-is-unstable-without-the-block-reward/ is a good link from which i took that quote from Arvind Narayann the writer of the paper.