Cricket match prediction discussions

[vella85]

Its boring right now without any international cricket being played except for the Zimbabwe and UAE ODI series which doesn't interest me that much as both teams are poor. The sad thing is that Zimbabwe are become one of the worst teams in cricket and not sure if they have a future playing against the top ranked teams. 

[sujonali1819]

If anyone is interested, the  United Arab Emirates tour of Zimbabwe is all set to start from tomorrow. The first ODI will be played at Harare and the Zims are being led by Peter Moor. As usual, the United Arab Emirates team doesn't have a single Emirati citizen and is 100% composed of expats from India and Pakistan. Players to watch out for: Craig Ervine, Kyle Jarvis and Sean Williams.

The series has already started at Apr 10 Wed, and 1 game already done. at this point, Zimbabwe won the game. So I think Zimbabwe will win the series easily because Zimbabwe is stronger than the United Arab Emirates. And we can see the score will Zimbabwe 3 vs 1 United Arab Emirates.
.

[susila_bai]

If anyone is interested, the  United Arab Emirates tour of Zimbabwe is all set to start from tomorrow. The first ODI will be played at Harare and the Zims are being led by Peter Moor. As usual, the United Arab Emirates team doesn't have a single Emirati citizen and is 100% composed of expats from India and Pakistan. Players to watch out for: Craig Ervine, Kyle Jarvis and Sean Williams.

The series has already started at Apr 10 Wed, and 1 game already done. at this point, Zimbabwe won the game. So I think Zimbabwe will win the series easily because Zimbabwe is stronger than the United Arab Emirates. And we can see the score will Zimbabwe 3 vs 1 United Arab Emirates.
.

Zimbabwe are no more strong team like before so i think we can see some upset in today match as both team are low level teams so any thing can happen on their matches, today i think UAE will come favourite in odds and then can loose it.

[AB de Royse777]

If anyone is interested, the  United Arab Emirates tour of Zimbabwe is all set to start from tomorrow. The first ODI will be played at Harare and the Zims are being led by Peter Moor. As usual, the United Arab Emirates team doesn't have a single Emirati citizen and is 100% composed of expats from India and Pakistan. Players to watch out for: Craig Ervine, Kyle Jarvis and Sean Williams.

The series has already started at Apr 10 Wed, and 1 game already done. at this point, Zimbabwe won the game. So I think Zimbabwe will win the series easily because Zimbabwe is stronger than the United Arab Emirates. And we can see the score will Zimbabwe 3 vs 1 United Arab Emirates.
.

Zimbabwe are no more strong team like before so i think we can see some upset in today match as both team are low level teams so any thing can happen on their matches, today i think UAE will come favourite in odds and then can loose it.

Zimbabwe used to be a better team.

The racism, politics, mismanagement harmed this team.  They used to have very bright future. If you compare Bangladesh team and Zimbabwe team then it will be more clear.

Have you remember 1997 ICC world cup qualification or a kind of tournament final between Zimbabwe vs Bangladesh? Bangladeshi team were so happy to beat them in the final as if it was like winning the world cup for them but now a days Bangladesh team beat Zimbabwe without having their main team.

Bangladesh got test status, they worked very hard to create cricketers and established them as a good cricket nation but on the other hand Zimbabwe team even do not have a good player who has a good ranking. It's a shame.

[Haunebu]

If anyone is interested, the  United Arab Emirates tour of Zimbabwe is all set to start from tomorrow. The first ODI will be played at Harare and the Zims are being led by Peter Moor. As usual, the United Arab Emirates team doesn't have a single Emirati citizen and is 100% composed of expats from India and Pakistan. Players to watch out for: Craig Ervine, Kyle Jarvis and Sean Williams.

The series has already started at Apr 10 Wed, and 1 game already done. at this point, Zimbabwe won the game. So I think Zimbabwe will win the series easily because Zimbabwe is stronger than the United Arab Emirates. And we can see the score will Zimbabwe 3 vs 1 United Arab Emirates.
.

Zimbabwe are no more strong team like before so i think we can see some upset in today match as both team are low level teams so any thing can happen on their matches, today i think UAE will come favourite in odds and then can loose it.

Zimbabwe used to be a better team.

The racism, politics, mismanagement harmed this team.  They used to have very bright future. If you compare Bangladesh team and Zimbabwe team then it will be more clear.

Have you remember 1997 ICC world cup qualification or a kind of tournament final between Zimbabwe vs Bangladesh? Bangladeshi team were so happy to beat them in the final as if it was like winning the world cup for them but now a days Bangladesh team beat Zimbabwe without having their main team.

Bangladesh got test status, they worked very hard to create cricketers and established them as a good cricket nation but on the other hand Zimbabwe team even do not have a good player who has a good ranking. It's a shame.

I can remember some of the old popular players from Zimbabwe like Grant Flower etc from the top of my head. I completely forgot about this team since it is not worth mentioning anymore.

Ireland and Afghanistan have emerged as much better teams in comparison.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Zimbabwe used to be a better team.

The racism, politics, mismanagement harmed this team.  They used to have very bright future. If you compare Bangladesh team and Zimbabwe team then it will be more clear.

Have you remember 1997 ICC world cup qualification or a kind of tournament final between Zimbabwe vs Bangladesh? Bangladeshi team were so happy to beat them in the final as if it was like winning the world cup for them but now a days Bangladesh team beat Zimbabwe without having their main team.

Bangladesh got test status, they worked very hard to create cricketers and established them as a good cricket nation but on the other hand Zimbabwe team even do not have a good player who has a good ranking. It's a shame.

The problem is that cricket was never a popular sport among the native African population in Zimbabwe. Almost all of their better players were whites. There are blacks playing cricket in Zimbabwe, but its popularity is much lower than that of football, athletics, basketball.etc. And after the land grabbing, the vast majority of the whites emigrated, leaving the cricketing infrastructure in shambles. In Bangladesh, the sport is very popular. And if I am not mistaken, cricket is the most popular sport in Bangladesh.

[AB de Royse777]

~snip~

The problem is that cricket was never a popular sport among the native African population in Zimbabwe. Almost all of their better players were whites. There are blacks playing cricket in Zimbabwe, but its popularity is much lower than that of football, athletics, basketball.etc. And after the land grabbing, the vast majority of the whites emigrated, leaving the cricketing infrastructure in shambles. In Bangladesh, the sport is very popular. And if I am not mistaken, cricket is the most popular sport in Bangladesh.

I think you have a point. I never know about the popularity of the sport in Zimbabwe. If it's not playing by the average people then the chances are very low to do better.

About Bangladesh, I assume they have the same craze like India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka has.  After all they are one of the South Asian country.

[eaLiTy]

Zimbabwe are no more strong team like before so i think we can see some upset in today match as both team are low level teams so any thing can happen on their matches, today i think UAE will come favourite in odds and then can loose it.

It would have being an upset because the match was reduced to 35 overs due to bad light and the great Duckworth–Lewis–Stern method to calculate the projected score is still confusing for me and when the match was stopped at 32 overs because of bad light Zimbabwe was ahead in the DLS and declared the winner, but if you look at the score card you will get confused  .

[Sithara007]

Zimbabwe are no more strong team like before so i think we can see some upset in today match as both team are low level teams so any thing can happen on their matches, today i think UAE will come favourite in odds and then can loose it.

It would have being an upset because the match was reduced to 35 overs due to bad light and the great Duckworth–Lewis–Stern method to calculate the projected score is still confusing for me and when the match was stopped at 32 overs because of bad light Zimbabwe was ahead in the DLS and declared the winner, but if you look at the score card you will get confused  .

Duckworth Lewis method was invented after carefully analyzing the outcomes of thousands of matches. So I wouldn't say that the method was wrong. And I don't understand why you think that the UAE was ahead. Two set batsmen were playing when bad light stopped play (PJ Moor at 45, and Chakabva at 78), and at that point they needed 25 runs to win from 3 overs (with 6 wickets in hand).

[AB de Royse777]

~snip~

Duckworth Lewis method was invented after carefully analyzing the outcomes of thousands of matches. So I wouldn't say that the method was wrong. And I don't understand why you think that the UAE was ahead. Two set batsmen were playing when bad light stopped play (PJ Moor at 45, and Chakabva at 78), and at that point they needed 25 runs to win from 3 overs (with 6 wickets in hand).

Man! I also don't understand how does this D/L method works. I feel like they do a lot of unrealistic calculation. I can not give you specific examples but in lot of occasions I have seen the unfairness. It just do not add up with the real situation.

My thinking is that why do we need a method to find a winner. Just leave it and declare abundant or an unfinished match. If you do not know what will be the outcome of the next ball (out or dot, single, double, two, three, four or six or possibly anything) then how do you calculate based on mathematics.  

[Haunebu]

~snip~

Duckworth Lewis method was invented after carefully analyzing the outcomes of thousands of matches. So I wouldn't say that the method was wrong. And I don't understand why you think that the UAE was ahead. Two set batsmen were playing when bad light stopped play (PJ Moor at 45, and Chakabva at 78), and at that point they needed 25 runs to win from 3 overs (with 6 wickets in hand).

Man! I also don't understand how does this D/L method works. I feel like they do a lot of unrealistic calculation. I can not give you specific examples but in lot of occasions I have seen the unfairness. It just do not add up with the real situation.

My thinking is that why do we need a method to find a winner. Just leave it and declare abundant or an unfinished match. If you do not know what will be the outcome of the next ball (out or dot, single, double, two, three, four or six or possibly anything) then how do you calculate based on mathematics.  

The managements would face a ton of problems if the games were left abandoned or cancelled like money issues, fans getting disappointed etc which is why they rarely ever cancel matches unless absolutely necessary.

D/L method is no way perfect as you mentioned, but it does the job majority of the time which it is a useful system overall.

[Vishnu.Reang]

~snip~

Duckworth Lewis method was invented after carefully analyzing the outcomes of thousands of matches. So I wouldn't say that the method was wrong. And I don't understand why you think that the UAE was ahead. Two set batsmen were playing when bad light stopped play (PJ Moor at 45, and Chakabva at 78), and at that point they needed 25 runs to win from 3 overs (with 6 wickets in hand).

Man! I also don't understand how does this D/L method works. I feel like they do a lot of unrealistic calculation. I can not give you specific examples but in lot of occasions I have seen the unfairness. It just do not add up with the real situation.

My thinking is that why do we need a method to find a winner. Just leave it and declare abundant or an unfinished match. If you do not know what will be the outcome of the next ball (out or dot, single, double, two, three, four or six or possibly anything) then how do you calculate based on mathematics.  

The managements would face a ton of problems if the games were left abandoned or cancelled like money issues, fans getting disappointed etc which is why they rarely ever cancel matches unless absolutely necessary.

D/L method is no way perfect as you mentioned, but it does the job majority of the time which it is a useful system overall.

The method which we had earlier was even worse. I still remember the infamous match between South Africa and England during the 1992 world cup. South Africa was cruising to victory, and needed 22 off 13 balls. After 12 minutes of play was lost to rain, the target was revised as 21 runs off 1 ball.

[eaLiTy]

Duckworth Lewis method was invented after carefully analyzing the outcomes of thousands of matches. So I wouldn't say that the method was wrong. And I don't understand why you think that the UAE was ahead. Two set batsmen were playing when bad light stopped play (PJ Moor at 45, and Chakabva at 78), and at that point they needed 25 runs to win from 3 overs (with 6 wickets in hand).

I can very well tell that the method is not perfect, i will give you a perfect example about a match between South Africa and England in 1992 world cup, South Africa needed 22 runs to win from 13 balls and when the rain interrupted and the score was adjusted using Duckworth Lewis method and so South Africa needed to win the same runs in 1 ball, how can you claim that as a fair calculation and not a wrong method.
I never said UAE was ahead, i just said they had the opportunity to upset them simply because of DLS method.

[AB de Royse777]

~snip~
I can very well tell that the method is not perfect, i will give you a perfect example about a match between South Africa and England in 1992 world cup, South Africa needed 22 runs to win from 13 balls and when the rain interrupted and the score was adjusted using Duckworth Lewis method and so South Africa needed to win the same runs in 1 ball, how can you claim that as a fair calculation and not a wrong method.
~snip~

Yeh I learnt about this match from history. I was too young to understand cricket then.

I feel without this Duckworth Lewis method cricket will be well off. I understand that they created it to eliminate the hassle of abandoning a match which may need another day but may not even get a result. Behind a cricket match there are money involves. Sponsors, audiences, events, tv channels, news channel I mean there are money and money everywhere. So they need a result in order to ensure everything. So, they are defining an undefined future.

Can you define a football match result or tennis or any other sports? Then why cricket came with this weird calculation?

There are matches where we see team scored 200+ runs (hypothetically giving a scenario) without losing any wicket but in the next few overs they lost all wickets.  There are matches where team lost 5 wickets in 20 runs but before the end of their innings they scored 250+ runs.

How are you going to know these futures that in the next few overs a team is going to lose all wickets or after losing some quick wickets a team still scored good runs and won a match. Duckworth Lewis is not gonna give the correct result.

[susila_bai]

~snip~
I can very well tell that the method is not perfect, i will give you a perfect example about a match between South Africa and England in 1992 world cup, South Africa needed 22 runs to win from 13 balls and when the rain interrupted and the score was adjusted using Duckworth Lewis method and so South Africa needed to win the same runs in 1 ball, how can you claim that as a fair calculation and not a wrong method.
~snip~

Yeh I learnt about this match from history. I was too young to understand cricket then.

I feel without this Duckworth Lewis method cricket will be well off. I understand that they created it to eliminate the hassle of abandoning a match which may need another day but may not even get a result. Behind a cricket match there are money involves. Sponsors, audiences, events, tv channels, news channel I mean there are money and money everywhere. So they need a result in order to ensure everything. So, they are defining an undefined future.

Can you define a football match result or tennis or any other sports? Then why cricket came with this weird calculation?

There are matches where we see team scored 200+ runs (hypothetically giving a scenario) without losing any wicket but in the next few overs they lost all wickets.  There are matches where team lost 5 wickets in 20 runs but before the end of their innings they scored 250+ runs.

How are you going to know these futures that in the next few overs a team is going to lose all wickets or after losing some quick wickets a team still scored good runs and won a match. Duckworth Lewis is not gonna give the correct result.

Duckworth Lewis method is good or bad on the situation of the game, like what above said in some matches where the chasing team is very close to wining the match but due to some techinical or rain reason the match is halted and then for the result of the match duckworth lewis method is used and they are loosing it but in some situation it favours the team and they are also winning it.

Today almost all team knows that their is always result of match so they play according to the duckworth lewis method and score according to it so that they can win in any situation.

[eaLiTy]

Can you define a football match result or tennis or any other sports? Then why cricket came with this weird calculation?

Even in the match i mentioned earlier, there was a reserve day and yet the Television channel was adamant to finish the game on that day itself if my memory serves right, during those times chasing run a ball is also a huge thing.

There are matches where we see team scored 200+ runs (hypothetically giving a scenario) without losing any wicket but in the next few overs they lost all wickets.  There are matches where team lost 5 wickets in 20 runs but before the end of their innings they scored 250+ runs.

This is exactly the reason, you cannot assume how things will be through calculations, when it comes to a sporting event anything can happen in a short period of time and we have seen many matches with unexpected twist from a strong position many times.

Today almost all team knows that their is always result of match so they play according to the duckworth lewis method and score according to it so that they can win in any situation.

This is true, if there is a rain forecast, the teams will play accordingly to favor when DLS is factored into and i have seen those kind of matches in New Zealand and England where there will be unexpected shower during the course of a match.

[JSRAW]

Can you define a football match result or tennis or any other sports? Then why cricket came with this weird calculation?

Because Shortest format of cricket which is 20-20 lasts a minimum of 4 hours, 8-10 hours for ODI, that's not the case with other sports and Rain doesn't stop other sport's gameplay much.

I will leave a wise man quote here regarding the D/L method.

You cannot have a tournament though where instead of assessing team strengths, you are assessing the role of the weather

https://twitter.com/bhogleharsha/status/872575606604562433


And by the way how many here know that Duckworth Lewis does not have any role in Red Ball cricket. Raise a hand quickly ladies

Well before that can you please explain the difference of red ball and white ball. The only thing I know is that for a D/N match or N match we use white ball.

There is a very interesting story and logical reason behind all this white-red ball saga, we need to go back to 70-80s for this. will update in a new post soon. or read about "Kerry packer" he was the main reason who changed everything in cricket from the ball, D/N, Dress code etc etc.

After reading about him and his work you will see how hypocritic our cricket world is ( foreign cricketers legends who hates the IPL)

And Bhai I know hahaha ..... I try to read carefully as much as possible before replying hehe

[AB de Royse777]

And by the way how many here know that Duckworth Lewis does not have any role in Red Ball cricket. Raise a hand quickly ladies

Well before that can you please explain the difference of red ball and white ball. The only thing I know is that for a D/N match or N match we use white ball.

By the way, I not a lady LOL

Side note: I have never seen/known in a test match to use Duckworth Lewis because they have a draw result :-P

[Sithara007]

Duckworth Lewis method was invented after carefully analyzing the outcomes of thousands of matches. So I wouldn't say that the method was wrong. And I don't understand why you think that the UAE was ahead. Two set batsmen were playing when bad light stopped play (PJ Moor at 45, and Chakabva at 78), and at that point they needed 25 runs to win from 3 overs (with 6 wickets in hand).

I can very well tell that the method is not perfect, i will give you a perfect example about a match between South Africa and England in 1992 world cup, South Africa needed 22 runs to win from 13 balls and when the rain interrupted and the score was adjusted using Duckworth Lewis method and so South Africa needed to win the same runs in 1 ball, how can you claim that as a fair calculation and not a wrong method.
I never said UAE was ahead, i just said they had the opportunity to upset them simply because of DLS method.

You are wrong on multiple fronts. Back in 1992, Duckworth Lewis was not the method used for determining the outcome of the rain affected matches. Back then there was a different method being used by the ICC, and the D/L method was first used by the ICC in 1999. As a matter of fact, Frank Duckworth and Tony Lewis came up with the new method inspired by the outcome of the 1992 match.

[Haunebu]

Honestly, why are everyone in this thread concerned about the D/L system all of a sudden? This system has existed for ages and it has its share of advantages and disadvantages(Advantages outweigh the disadvantages) and it won't be abolished anytime soon.

However, I would love to see an improvement(D/L 2.0) or a completely new system since the ICC have the budget to do so.