Yet another analyst :)

[pent]

No, I am the Angel of Doom. Although some short term upside is possible, Bitcoin is about to go into the most stress events in its history. I don't think its bullish.

[waspoza]

No, I am the Angel of Doom. Although some short term upside is possible, Bitcoin is about to go into the most stress events in its history. I don't think its bullish.

Most stress events in history? Nobody is giving flying shit about some stupid minning rigs.

[pent]

We are entering ASIC adoption stage of Bitcoin growth.

I don't think it will start from giving ASIC techology away from private hands. This is not profitable as holding this technology private. Normal human behaviour at current prices would be to leave customers without money and develop this technology private on that money. That also mean that most hashing power will be located within few hands.

This technology could be thrown away only when prices reach single digits or even less than $1.

[notme]

I agree a small pullback is possible here, but zoom out.  We just broke through some major longterm resistances.  The upside possibilities just opened up.

[pent]

ASIC adoption is a phase transition. The higher will be price - the higher will be human temptation to make a crime action.

You see - price rises as BFL doing refunds, not because "Bitcoin sold globally, eveyone see its benefits and buying". This is a trap of dissapointment.

I don't think BFL will have enough funds to cover all refunds. And then party will start.

In other hand, lets say they will have technology eventually. But... They can earn much more money just doing mining by themselfs at current price levels.

Fork trap in both cases.

Here is no matter what resistances we did break. The main resistance- human temptation stays above. Its becomes stronger with higher price and eventually may bring to collapse.

All I want to say - in phase transition period it is less risky to stay in cash, because of crime, scam, bitcoin chain fork and other bad things might happen.

But whatever... Lets watch if lucif's figures were right.

[pent]

Yes, but evolution needs to go through hard times.

In current point Bitcoin needs single digits to throw ASIC technology in public and make private ASIC mining unprofitable comparing to doing business by selling asic miners to people.

This will eventually bring asic and security to Bitcoin without big danger of chain fork.

Bitcoin mass mind knows that. And that would be.

[Kupsi]

looks rather like panic buying of the bears that got trapped

The panic buying hasn't started yet. This will be fun  

We are there now

[Crypt_Current]

Pent / lucif / Angel,

I think you are wrong, and here's why:

The people making the large buys are probably doing so because they believe USD and fiat in general is on the way out.  Why would they just turn it around for a short term profit in that doomed currency?  Of course, some ARE turning it around for short-term gain... But I think most are in this for the long haul -- the big players, anyway.  Why sell out when you can buy in?

[cypherdoc]

i'm sure lucif got "zhoutonged" on his short long ago...

[ElectricMucus]

i'm sure lucif got "zhoutonged" on his short long ago...

Well it's one of the worst way to loose ones BTC. If nothing makes one go on a vendetta against the windmills this will.

[lebing]

Final score

Lebing 1

Lucif 0

[cypherdoc]

Final score

Lebing and cypherdoc 1

Lucif 0

[cypherdoc]

You are completely blind. That was weekly chart with not yet confirmed figure and 5 target within months

You don't provide targets in your emails at all. You just say buy or sell. When? At what level? What to expect? Only yr ass knows.

And you know what? You trolled out my personal bet. Take it. No matter will I right or not - fuck you.

But I'm sure I am right. I will not share such specifics anymore. Nobody do it.

yes, i am a troll.  but a good looking one:

[Crypt_Current]

You are completely blind. That was weekly chart with not yet confirmed figure and 5 target within months

You don't provide targets in your emails at all. You just say buy or sell. When? At what level? What to expect? Only yr ass knows.

And you know what? You trolled out my personal bet. Take it. No matter will I right or not - fuck you.

But I'm sure I am right. I will not share such specifics anymore. Nobody do it.

yes, i am a troll.  but a good looking one:

-1 for grammar.

[oakpacific]

Final score

Lebing and cypherdoc 1

Lucif 0

His rule is that he can extend the length of the game infinitely, until he can claim victory(i.e., scores one point no matter how many you have scored), so you better run right now!

[lucif]

Wow, what a strong impulse was here.

Many thanks to BFL and Josh semi-dead body. Hehe. Sure, all counts above invalidated.

What do we have? Sure we have a bubble Need some time to analyze.

[lucif]

Analyzed.

So here is an impulse-like wave supported by increasing volume. I agree that top bullish counts distributed between subscribers of top analytics may be valid.

You may call me crazy (however I am), but something is not right here in bullish counts. They may get realized only in bubble mode conditions - IMHO.

* Order book looks weird from ask side last days. I suppose this is supported by miners and excited traders expecting $100/BTC. But only desparate traders buying using market order - as nobody wants to get burned in such low ask side. Who else buy? ASIC refunds. Some amount of USD investments was thrown to market and we see a bubble here now. Another amount was stolen of course. Hehe. But soon this refund pressure will stop.

* The continously decreasing volume from 722 high year ago along with increasing uptrend hints that a pig is hidden somewhere not far from here

* The daily bitcoincharts adx still keep screaming "top!" "top!", and this may reverse the current impulsive wave 3, harming overall impulse wave from 960 low

* A lot of negative divergences on daily and weekly oscillators. To break them - bubble mode required.

Overall: staying away of this, watching. too risky.

[arepo]

im with lucif. a lot of divergence signals since the bullish breakout. still a perfect candidate for a massive bulltrap.

and guess what guys?

i hope your rocket has a little more fuel cause

we're still not out of the same damned price channel.

fell right short and is as i type in the process of correcting for your exuberance.

the forums are WAYYY too bullish for a rally right now. we're clearly at a top. everyone's already all-in and are anti-FUDing everywhere.

[POLL] when will 1 BTC be worth 1 oz of silver?
Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.
Bitcoin nearly reaching its highest ever market capitalisation
why this rally?
One week bit coin rally - what happened?
$30 / BTC by March
[Poll] How long until $1000 per 1 Bitcoin?
Help me drive BTC price to $10000
[POLL] how long before 1 BTC = 1 oz of gold


good luck, bulls.

edit: OH YEAH. and even if we dont go down we're not breaking out of this price channel any time soon. MASSIVE (12.500 BTC) askwall @ $15,75 just popped up

[lucif]

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/blogs/bfl_jody/66-using-btc-exchange.html

If you are going to use BTC you need to understand how an exchange works. Many of you have chosen to use the BitPay option on our order page. Our products are offered for a USD price. BitPay takes your BTC, exchanges them for USD AT THE CURRENT EXCHANGE RATE and sends us your payment. If you ask for a refund, BitPay takes the dollars back from us, converts them back to BTC AT THE CURRENT EXCHANGE RATE and sends you the BTC. So if the exchange rate changes between the time you make your purchase and the time you get your refund, you will get a different amount back than you paid in.

So I suppose the buying pressure generated by huge number of dissapointed customers loosing their money. And by idiots thinking that those people are happy buying bitcoins.

[myself]

wow allot of circle-jerk in the last pages
any way the wedge is still there  like i posted on my wedge thread (shameless plug ), the anchor points are the little squares so anyone can check the lines

The Rising Wedge is a bearish pattern that begins wide at the bottom and contracts as prices move higher and the trading range narrows. In contrast to symmetrical triangles, which have no definitive slope and no bullish or bearish bias, rising wedges definitely slope up and have a bearish bias.

Even though this article will focus on the rising wedge as a reversal pattern, the pattern can also fit into the continuation category. As a continuation pattern, the rising wedge will still slope up, but the slope will be against the prevailing downtrend. As a reversal pattern, the rising wedge will slope up and with the prevailing trend. Regardless of the type (reversal or continuation), rising wedges are bearish.


    1 Prior Trend: In order to qualify as a reversal pattern, there must be a prior trend to reverse. The rising wedge usually forms over a 3-6 month period and can mark an intermediate or long-term trend reversal. Sometimes the current trend is totally contained within the rising wedge; other times the pattern will form after an extended advance.

    2 Upper Resistance Line: It takes at least two reaction highs to form the upper resistance line, ideally three. Each reaction high should be higher than the previous high.

    3 Lower Support Line: At least two reaction lows are required to form the lower support line. Each reaction low should be higher than the previous low.

    4 Contraction: The upper resistance line and lower support line converge as the pattern matures. The advances from the reaction lows (lower support line) become shorter and shorter, which makes the rallies unconvincing. This creates an upper resistance line that fails to keep pace with the slope of the lower support line and indicates a supply overhang as prices increase.

    5 Support Break: Bearish confirmation of the pattern does not come until the support line is broken in a convincing fashion. It is sometimes prudent to wait for a break of the previous reaction low. Once support is broken, there can sometimes be a reaction rally to test the newfound resistance level.

    6 Volume: Ideally, volume will decline as prices rise and the wedge evolves. An expansion of volume on the support line break can be taken as bearish confirmation.

The rising wedge can be one of the most difficult chart patterns to accurately recognize and trade. While it is a consolidation formation, the loss of upside momentum on each successive high gives the pattern its bearish bias. However, the series of higher highs and higher lows keeps the trend inherently bullish. The final break of support indicates that the forces of supply have finally won out and lower prices are likely. There are no measuring techniques to estimate the decline – other aspects of technical analysis should be employed to forecast price targets.

http://yfrog.com/h7a9sqp