Yet another analyst :)

[arepo]

correction to the correction failed to retrace past 61.8% [($17.75-$15.35)/($19.19-$15.45)=%63]. breaking of the $15.50 support is imminent. i see your bearish pennant and raise you a second knife.

also the last push was a 76% a text book wave 2 (http://yfrog.com/h89dgrsp)

you're looking at a different set of data. i was calculating from the $19.19 top; the correction up from the correction down from that top traced from the $15.45 bottom to a $17.75 local peak, only about 60% of the initial knife [$19.19-$15.45). this says to me that a reversal is occurring and that a short-term downtrend will commence.

[1714676795]

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[1714676795]

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[myself]

@arepo i know you where doing that your scenario was noted here http://yfrog.com/mncdkhcp

[arepo]

http://yfrog.com/mncdkhcp

that's exactly right. thanks for that beautiful diagram showing that the correction to the reversal bounced neatly off of the 61.8% line.

wave analysis degrades after the first correction... the classic intuition is a 'head and shoulders' shape. so you refer to wave 2 as in elliot waves, but im still undecided on that particular technique. there seems to be a combination of noise-to-signal ratio problems and confirmation bias in constructing the model.

from my analysis, the correction failed to continue the trend. the price is breaking an important support as we speak, so we shall see.

[myself]

@arepo move the time frame to 4h and 1d to see the bigger picture

[arepo]

the smaller picture you mean.

right now we're bouncing off of the 61.8% mark from the low of $15.63 to yesterday's peak of $17.81.

unless we break through there is no way but down.



clear consolidating market making new lows in the ADX

[lucif]

Actually h/sma200 providing support as always, currently preventing this bear flag to be triggering. Although bounce up to 18 area possible, this consolidation looks very bearish.

[keewee]

the smaller picture you mean.

right now we're bouncing off of the 61.8% mark from the low of $15.63 to yesterday's peak of $17.81.

unless we break through there is no way but down.

http://s8.postimage.org/wvptu96np/chart5.png

clear consolidating market making new lows in the ADX

17.80, breakthrough? Or does it need to hold above that level?

[lucif]

Hanging man daily candle. Hehe.

[lucif]

Daily upper bollinger retested.

Next probable destination - daily 20 sma and probaably daily lower bollinger band.

[arepo]

the smaller picture you mean.

right now we're bouncing off of the 61.8% mark from the low of $15.63 to yesterday's peak of $17.81.

unless we break through there is no way but down.

http://s8.postimage.org/wvptu96np/chart5.png

clear consolidating market making new lows in the ADX

17.80, breakthrough? Or does it need to hold above that level?

yes this is a very precarious situation. having just broken through if we now hold above it, that is very bullish. however, the only way down from here is a strong downward move. consolidating around this level is risky to a bear

[jago25_98]

re: S3052's subscription. Do not use this service.

If you subscribe you will find the newletters using trigger words and talking up the market deliberately. Then when a crash happens you will be informed too late in the event to profit while S3052 and his chums sell off. By trading off of the recommendations you are basically supporting S3052 gambit.

It's not unfair in the same way all is fair as in love, as in war.

Can I prove this ruse? It's always difficult to separate cause from effect but I believe I can. However, it would take a lot of work to show conclusively to a scientific level. Once exposed, the mistakes in giving himself away can be further covered up. 
This is a different kind of accusation we had last year whereby I couldn't be sure.

The benefit of the situation is that those bumps we've seen in the last 6 months - all from S3052's newsletter. It goes to show that it doesn't take much still to influence this market. It's getting better (I think this is due to buy and hold/forget that you get from people who just want to know they always have some cash - something harder to see with gold under the mattress) - but this is still a threat for Bitcoin. Fortunately the swings aren't as massive as they used to be but it shows that one actor can swing the market.

Money has a number of problems. Bitcoin addresses inflation and centralisation. But it doesn't address the network effect or speculation.

Q: How do we address that? Can an exchange be build into the currency itself to try to slow and mitigate price swings?
Q: How was the S3052 newsletter in the early days before it become popular? Did he (I think it's a he) admit any mistakes?

[lucif]

Thanks. But can I ask you to discuss blue guy services in his thread? I recently promised peace for him. Hehe...

[lucif]

In a hourly chart since last drop I see the fractal of price movement for last 6 months...

[lucif]

I officially call this growth Bitcoin Bubble of Legitimacy Illusions: BBLI.

With some part of asics bubble.

[jago25_98]

Thanks. But can I ask you to discuss blue guy services in his thread? I recently promised peace for him. Hehe...

Yeah sorry about that, I was actually meaning to cut and paste somewhere else but someone from work came along and I hit submit and closed knee-jerk reaction! :p

[Kupsi]

What now Dr. Watson?

[lucif]

Now Im doing trades =)

Nothing to add to above posts so far.

[lucif]

However I lie. I can comment analytics.

Bullish: I find short term update from blue guy reasonable. But I do not post bullish stuff here =)

Bearish: Also last update from cypher about clear sky very well suitable for Bitcoin.

[jwzguy]

However I lie. I can comment analytics.

Bullish: I find short term update from blue guy reasonable. But I do not post bullish stuff here =)

Well, thanks for admitting your posts are so extremely biased that not even you believe what you're saying. This is what you call "truth" ?

[lucif]

Truth? Tale of Nikolay Nosov "Dunno on Moon" I call truth. Yes.