Yet another analyst :)

[jwzguy]

Truth? Tale of Nikolay Nosov "Dunno on Moon" I call truth. Yes.

Well, then you have no grounds for complaint when people put you on ignore.

[lucif]

I said, I dont care about it.

[lucif]

[lucif]

So, network phase transition (migration to asic) started and in progress. Like I said, better to stay in cash during this.

Whether asics are real or not, In any case we probably will get noticable downtrend.

So they are real and no big scandals so far. So miners which were sit on their bitcoins will probably start to order asics converting BTC to USD.

Price failing to break 61.2% retracement from $32 to $2 at 20.50 and hold above so far.

As long as it fail to break that level - we are still on correction from $1.99 low.

So unless price failing to stay above 20.50, I keep this count prefered



Instead of direct movement lower $2 we may get some other correction pattern. Like triangle or whatever.

[StarenseN]

haha :lolgraph:

[notme]

haha :lolgraph:

I could agree with some bearish sentiment in the short term, but lucif always goes overboard.

[Luno]

haha :lolgraph:

I could agree with some bearish sentiment in the short term, but lucif always goes overboard.

Lucif anticipated the dip on the 24'th.  Calling the top is the hardest!

[lucif]

In absolute value I don't go deeper than bullish people around go higher.

$50
$100
$1000
$100500

lol. Level of bulls greed is too high here. I just calm it down to show opposite side =)

Did you saw how few days ago in Bitfinex people borrowed USD offers 9001% a year? That was funny =)

Pigs will get slaughtered.

[notme]

haha :lolgraph:

I could agree with some bearish sentiment in the short term, but lucif always goes overboard.

Lucif anticipated the dip on the 24'th.  Calling the top is the hardest!

Nice top

[lucif]

Besides, I don't joke about <$2 call.

It has some probability. It's a double zigzag correction with impulsive wave C below $2 in 2014.

[notme]

In absolute value I don't go deeper than bullish people around go higher.

$50
$100
$1000
$100500

lol. Level of bulls greed is too high here. I just calm it down to show opposite side =)

Did you saw how few days ago in Bitfinex people borrowed USD offers 9001% a year? That was funny =)

Pigs will get slaughtered.

I agree with you there, but irrational bearishness will not succeed in talking down the bulls.  You have to give sane targets to be taken seriously no matter which side you're betting on.

[notme]

Besides, I don't joke about <$2 call.

It has some probability. It's a double zigzag correction with impulsive wave C below $2 in 2014.

And $100 has some probability in 2014... but what about the next 11 months?

[lucif]

I see $0.5 probability in 2014 higher than $100.

At that time, bitcoin blockchain will become totally unusable by regular user - only via centralized services like walletbit or whatever - which can be scam or shut down.
By that time I also see high odds of first serious legal impact with governments which may destroy most of centralized services and cash-out points.
And at that time most of holded bitcoins will be sold out on market in exchange to ASICs.

[notme]

I see $0.5 probability in 2014 higher than $100.

At that time, bitcoin blockchain will become totally unusable by regular user - only via centralized services like walletbit or whatever - which can be scam or shut down.

  I'm not going to debate that with you again.  Have you still not tried the prerelease for 0.8?

By that time I also see high odds of first serious legal impact with governments which may destroy most of centralized services and cash-out points.

Let's hope so.  Every other thing they have banned goes up in market value after it is illegal.

And at that time most of holded bitcoins will be sold out on market in exchange to ASICs.

I really doubt most of the bitcoins are held by miners at the point.

You seem to view bitcoin as a circle jerk.  Unfortunately for your profits, you are wrong and bitcoin is more and more widely used throughout the world for a wider and wider range of uses.

[lucif]

I also don't want spend energy in debates. This is my point of view with lots of pages with arguments behind in this topic.

Probability exists among other probabilities.

But the main argument - is people illusion of Bitcoin legitimacy. Bitpay and exchanges will be burned with fire soon. With lots of customers butthurt. Drugs, weapons and gambling are enough reasons for that.

[lucif]

And according to ADX (pic few posts above), nice selloff should start somewhere here.

No historic precedents where rally continues after ADX reverses from 84.

[ThickAsThieves]

And according to ADX (pic few posts above), nice selloff should start somewhere here.

No historic precedents where rally continues after ADX reverses from 84.

It's the weekend dip, by Thursday we'll break 22.

[dree12]

We can't assume the free market is efficient, but it should be an approximation of an efficient market. As a consequence, from the current value of 19.6, 100 is almost twice as likely to be touched before 2.

A few more stats using the efficient-market hypothesis:

• The chance of touching 2 before 190 is almost exactly 50%
• The chance of touching 100 before 3.75 is almost exactly 50%

[lucif]

And 73.12% of statistic reports are taken from sky.

[dree12]

And 73.12% of statistic reports are taken from sky.

1. Read up on the efficient-market hypothesis.
2. Decide if you agree with the hypothesis as a reasonable approximation of reality.
3. Use mathematics to calculate statistics.

I'm not trying to advance a particularly bullish or bearish sentiment here. But if you claim that the statistics are false, there are only three reasons why:

• You reject the efficient-market hypothesis applied to Bitcoin. That is, you believe Bitcoin is not an efficient market.
• You have access to insider information that the rest of the market does not have.
• You are mistaken.

The first is definitely more likely, and I understand if that is your viewpoint. This is where I would disagree: I believe an efficient market approximates our market quite well.