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Author Topic: Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A!  (Read 85740 times)
MatTheCat
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June 16, 2016, 10:42:54 AM
 #661

I like this position. I either become wealthier, or buy back and get free coins. No matter what the price does, I win.

Until 'they' stop pumping Bitcoin and instead, take a big shit all over it and it dumps back down to beneath your mean buy-in level.


this pump was actually very predictable, any retarded would have known that the hype + other shit would have resulted in a huge pump, easy profit there if you want to p%d yourself...

If this pump is so predictable (it was, everyone 'predicted it', they just never knew exactly where, how, and when), then at what levels are you going to start taking profits? If you start taking profits before BTC dumps, how do you know that you won't start rebuying on 'corrections', only to watch Bitcoin slip further and further down from your rebuy in price? Loads and loads of people do this. I have done it in the past. Whilst I am far from pleased with my performance during the pump, I would rather skim some profit from it, then have the dubious pleasure of sitting staring at max profit taking potential, only for my hubris to turn  to despair as I end up getting run over by the market, or rather, by those who decides where the market goes, where it stops, and then where it dumps to.


Been there, done it all before.

Kraken Account, Robbed/Emptied. Kraken say "Fuck you, its your loss": https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1559553.msg15656643#msg15656643

Bitfinex victims. DO NOT TOUCH THE BFX TOKEN! Start moving it around, or trading it, and you will be construed as having accepted it as an alternative means of payment to your USD, BTC, etc.
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June 16, 2016, 11:33:31 AM
 #662

If this pump is so predictable (it was, everyone 'predicted it', they just never knew exactly where, how, and when), then at what levels are you going to start taking profits?

As a very crude approximation, by my understanding there are two ways or general methods to enter trades (not completely disjoint, as your strategy can be a combination of the two): by prediction, or by reaction.

The way you are asking the question right now is justified as a response to those who sneerily claim it's all (easily) predictable, but not very helpful for one's own trading decision, in my opinion. More pragmatically seen: you can decide to trade the "pump" (assuming you think it is one) after you're getting clearer signs that it's nearing its end.

On the earlier side, but also: flimsier in terms of evidence, would be, say, divergences. Next, slightly delayed, slightly less profitable, but slightly harder evidence, could be for example waiting for the first dump on a sufficiently small time scale, and then selling the rebound (and setting a stop loss for good measure). And so on...

The main trade-off in trading seems to lie between early/chance for high profit/low certainty vs. later/lower profit chance/higher certainty. The trick is finding the right balance for your own risk appetite, time you can/want to spend, and, well, preservation of your nerves.

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June 16, 2016, 11:43:20 AM
 #663

Futures spreads have just turned bearish as fuck:



Dumped $715 position at $740.

Will hunt further long position post clean-up.


Kraken Account, Robbed/Emptied. Kraken say "Fuck you, its your loss": https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1559553.msg15656643#msg15656643

Bitfinex victims. DO NOT TOUCH THE BFX TOKEN! Start moving it around, or trading it, and you will be construed as having accepted it as an alternative means of payment to your USD, BTC, etc.
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June 16, 2016, 11:43:58 AM
 #664

I like this position. I either become wealthier, or buy back and get free coins. No matter what the price does, I win.

Until 'they' stop pumping Bitcoin and instead, take a big shit all over it and it dumps back down to beneath your mean buy-in level.


this pump was actually very predictable, any retarded would have known that the hype + other shit would have resulted in a huge pump, easy profit there if you want to p%d yourself...

If this pump is so predictable (it was, everyone 'predicted it', they just never knew exactly where, how, and when), then at what levels are you going to start taking profits? If you start taking profits before BTC dumps, how do you know that you won't start rebuying on 'corrections', only to watch Bitcoin slip further and further down from your rebuy in price? Loads and loads of people do this. I have done it in the past. Whilst I am far from pleased with my performance during the pump, I would rather skim some profit from it, then have the dubious pleasure of sitting staring at max profit taking potential, only for my hubris to turn  to despair as I end up getting run over by the market, or rather, by those who decides where the market goes, where it stops, and then where it dumps to.


Been there, done it all before.

the pump itself was predictable not the final outcome, all i know is that it was basically 100% sure to be pumped, then you can not expect to have precise guess about the top and the bottom, i never implied that with my post

but here what i think it may happen, so don't yell at me in few day/weeks and say you were wrong and bullshit like that, it's just a guess

i was guessing since we were at 4xx level that the pump will make the price jump up to 8xx-9xx without touching 1k, than a consolidation around 8xx for some weeks/months
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June 16, 2016, 11:58:08 AM
 #665

I think this is a question of driving the price as high as possible before the australia auction, no the halving or new paradigm or any of that, BTC Deep pockets need to get these bidders to pay as high a price as possible for 24,000 bitcoins so they can't control the price as well as the whale consortium.

I agree BTC Markets are highly controlled and manipulated.  This is why people recommend only the blockchain technology vs using bitcoins as a store of value.

My prediction is up until June 20/21 then a massive dump after that. Let's see.
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June 16, 2016, 12:01:41 PM
 #666

Nice, Mat constantly complains that Bitcoin is "manipulated", and then ventures in to try his luck in the gold markets - the most manipulated market on earth haha.

Gold is real.

Bitcoin is the very definition of 'vapour'.

When the great wealth of the world goes into panic mode, when equities are total shit, governments are looking increasingly insolvent, and central banks don't have anymore tools up their sleeves except for even more negative interest rates, where are is the great wealth gonna go? Into a experimental and flawed prototype digital token, that the Chinese government could kill at the snap of a finger if they had the mind to do so, or into a rare valuable commodity, produced in the very final moments of a dying star, and which has been sought after and viewed as a representation of wealth by humanity for thousands of years.

Of course no one ran to Bitcoin before, because Bitcoin wasn't invented yet.

You knew what happend the last time the economy crashed? Some genius or geniuses invented Bitcoin as a solution.

Gold never solved the problem, maybe Bitcoin won't solve it either, but it is a new option, and it's better than gold. If even a fraction of the people that normally flee to gold realize this, Bitcoin will skyrocket.    

Why not take a leap of faith and invest 2-5% of your wealth in Bitcoin just in case? What's the worst that can happen? Is losing 2-5% of your wealth going to ruin you? If it takes of you might end up 10 times as rich.

It's an assymetrical trade if I ever saw one. If you win, you win so big it will change your life, if you lose, meh, you just lost some pocket change, who cares.
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June 16, 2016, 12:15:25 PM
Last edit: June 16, 2016, 12:29:03 PM by MatTheCat
 #667

The main trade-off in trading seems to lie between early/chance for high profit/low certainty vs. later/lower profit chance/higher certainty. The trick is finding the right balance for your own risk appetite, time you can/want to spend, and, well, preservation of your nerves.

With the benefit of hindsight, my long term bias was always bullish, in that I always imagined that Bitcoin would get up to aroudn $800 in the fullness of time and therefore, I should have only been considering long position trades. With that said, I did get long at $370 on the so called Mike Hearn dump.....Since nobody really knew how much further Bitcoin would dump, I set my stop down beneath 'the bottom' at $360, which then got triggered and I returned to my PC to find that I had just taken a hefty hit, with BTC trading back up at my buy in level, which drove me fkn beserk....this shit totally shreds the nerves......the answer to which would be to trade with an amount of money that doesn't matter to me, which in my case, would be trading with a pointless amount.


i was guessing since we were at 4xx level that the pump will make the price jump up to 8xx-9xx without touching 1k, than a consolidation around 8xx for some weeks/months

Only issue I have with that, is your optimism about the consolidation.

Give me one example, of any market, ever, that moved parabolically higher, and then just kind of consolidated around the very heights of its move?

Do you think this ramp is all just natural organic demand, or is it a full on manufactured pump? If it is a manufactured pump, do you think the pumpers are ramping Bitcoin to make all the little Johnny Bitcoiners rich, or are they doing it to enrich themselves, which by necessaity, means they are going to dump.

Same game over and over again, no matter what the market. Smart Money buys at the bottom, and puts in the floor. They then lift the market up, and then start to ramp, at which point, the smart money starts selling to the public up top, and most crucially, stops supporting the market, which means once the public FOMO fades away, the market crashes.




Of course no one ran to Bitcoin before, because Bitcoin wasn't invented yet.

You knew what happend the last time the economy crashed? Some genius or geniuses invented Bitcoin as a solution.

Gold never solved the problem, maybe Bitcoin won't solve it either, but it is a new option, and it's better than gold. If even a fraction of the people that normally flee to gold realize this, Bitcoin will skyrocket.    

Why not take a leap of faith and invest 2-5% of your wealth in Bitcoin just in case? What's the worst that can happen? Is losing 2-5% of your wealth going to ruin you? If it takes of you might end up 10 times as rich.

It's an assymetrical trade if I ever saw one. If you win, you win so big it will change your life, if you lose, meh, you just lost some pocket change, who cares.

Power grids can go down (look at Venezuala for current example of economic collapse), which amongst other things, means no internet.

Mining farms can be shut down, or in the case of war, destroyed.


The only thing that Bitcoin has in common with gold, is that very few hands, control far too much of the stuff.


Kraken Account, Robbed/Emptied. Kraken say "Fuck you, its your loss": https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1559553.msg15656643#msg15656643

Bitfinex victims. DO NOT TOUCH THE BFX TOKEN! Start moving it around, or trading it, and you will be construed as having accepted it as an alternative means of payment to your USD, BTC, etc.
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June 16, 2016, 02:16:04 PM
 #668

i was guessing since we were at 4xx level that the pump will make the price jump up to 8xx-9xx without touching 1k, than a consolidation around 8xx for some weeks/months

Only issue I have with that, is your optimism about the consolidation.

Give me one example, of any market, ever, that moved parabolically higher, and then just kind of consolidated around the very heights of its move?

Do you think this ramp is all just natural organic demand, or is it a full on manufactured pump? If it is a manufactured pump, do you think the pumpers are ramping Bitcoin to make all the little Johnny Bitcoiners rich, or are they doing it to enrich themselves, which by necessaity, means they are going to dump.

Same game over and over again, no matter what the market. Smart Money buys at the bottom, and puts in the floor. They then lift the market up, and then start to ramp, at which point, the smart money starts selling to the public up top, and most crucially, stops supporting the market, which means once the public FOMO fades away, the market crashes.



bitcoin is still young its move are unpredictable, i would not base its movements on other market, and yes a 100% increase with a small correction around the higher value has already happened

remember when we were at 230 and went all the way to 500 then correction to 430? i'm predicting the same thing, but with double the value
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June 16, 2016, 02:20:23 PM
 #669

This is amusing. You are deliberately making things difficult for yourself.

With SSS there is no guessing or predicting the price, no stops, no leverage or any of that other nonsense. Just buy and sell predetermined amounts at predetermined prices. No stress, and all but guaranteed to make you richer.

Maybe some people just enjoy constant emotional rollercoaster rides, even if the emotions are negative? Emotional junkies?

Look inside yourself, and you will see that you are the bubble.
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June 16, 2016, 04:54:22 PM
 #670

Dumped $715 position at $740.


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June 16, 2016, 04:55:13 PM
 #671

Dumped $715 position at $740.

You did it wrong again imo. The true profit is not on such a small time frame. Imagine if you had bought at 500. You probably would have sold at 550? Wrong! You hold because bitcoin is pumping. You just threw away a perfectly fine position once again. Hold and let it pump you silly.
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June 16, 2016, 04:57:42 PM
 #672

I was asleep when this happened.  Mat, I need you to stop being useless and tell me what exchange initiated this rise and which exchange initiated the drop back down:


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June 16, 2016, 05:06:52 PM
 #673


J.T. Borgan (<-- libel mitigation format) have got a stash of about 6M bitcoins that they've been accumulating over the last 5 years as part of a due diligence programme in case things get "out of hand".

They have a dedicated team of crack traders permanently assigned to the bitcoin market who carry out co-ordinated surge mitigation designed to pummel bullish sentiment at strategic points in the asset's growth such as the manoeuvre we just witnessed an hour ago where a potential rally got dowsed just at a key moment when the 30-minute chart was about to go green and the CNY valuation was about to hit 5000.

The footprint from this excersise can be seen here on the 30 minute MACD which has now gone negative again.



The J.T. Borgan surge mitigation team (and their industry counterparts at P.B.O.C., FED, BofE, ECB) have been well aware for years of the potential of cryptographic assets to burst the debt bubble and loaded up a long time ago as a matter of due diligence in order to be able to take full control of the market in the event of a debt/fiat deposit crisis.

Moreover, their crack trader teams are able to carry out their operations on a sustainable basis due to being able to front run the market using inside knowledge of when the co-ordinated manoevres are coming.

Enjoy !!  Wink


Does that information quoted above help? Is that the drop you're mentioning? Sorry, (also wondering myself).

(Doh, I don't think this is what you're inquiring about. Darn. I think it was a CNY exchange, I want to say okcoin but not sure, had only partially been paying attention).
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June 16, 2016, 07:01:13 PM
 #674

I feel like you're trolling us on purpose Matthew, going all fiat and stuff during the biggest bitcoin rally ever.
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June 16, 2016, 09:25:41 PM
 #675

mat, what giving yourself so much pain, just count the waves !!! you only need to know how to count to 5  Grin
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June 16, 2016, 10:19:26 PM
 #676

Fuck you "sandiman".  All you do is shill for IPO scamcoins in every thread.  Proof of stake is 100% useless and all IPOs are scams.

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June 16, 2016, 11:07:23 PM
 #677

Fuck you "sandiman".  All you do is shill for IPO scamcoins in every thread.  Proof of stake is 100% useless and all IPOs are scams.

Bite your tongue, if it weren't for icos making bitcoins for me I'd have to buy them!
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June 16, 2016, 11:08:53 PM
 #678

I closed the last bit of my long at 778$, now hoping to catch a falling knife around 720$.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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June 16, 2016, 11:38:49 PM
 #679

I closed the last bit of my long at 778$, now hoping to catch a falling knife around 720$.

61.8% RLZ is at $787, and since BTC has come so far now, I would have to imagine that it is going to get there, and then some.

There will be pro traders out there, whose plan will be to dump, and/or short Bitcoin at that price, risking right up to the ATH. This is why my original AB=CD target was cut short to $785. After such a stupendous rise, I have to respect the RLZ for the entire BTC market....but as it turns out, the least little bearish twist in the market, and my nerve goes and I dump my position....and to be honest, I am guilty of closing winning postions well short of targets, a lot!

Regarding the RLZ however, could be that is the level where the Shorts pile up, and where the Bitcoin Cowboys squeeze the fuck out of them. This is what happened, on the Nov pump. As BTC got to $325, the shorts piled up, and piled up, and eventually they were all squeezed out fo their positions, which resulted in the parabolic spike.


Kraken Account, Robbed/Emptied. Kraken say "Fuck you, its your loss": https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1559553.msg15656643#msg15656643

Bitfinex victims. DO NOT TOUCH THE BFX TOKEN! Start moving it around, or trading it, and you will be construed as having accepted it as an alternative means of payment to your USD, BTC, etc.
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June 17, 2016, 12:19:51 AM
 #680

I don't think this is going to dump anytime soon, closing longs right now is not a good idea.
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