Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A!

[MatTheCat]

@mat: are you shorting because of today's auction now?

Interesting that post the Australian auction, we just had a 3K Mkt dump on the most volumous, and by now probably the most liquid USD exchange, Bitfinex. Whoever dumped these coins, didn't give a fuck that they would be dropping spot by $30. Perhaps they see any price up in this range as a raging glittering profit? Perhaps they are cracking open the champagne right now...or perhaps they are readying their next market dump of Bitcoin?

Whatever the case, when u start to see these huge price insensitive Market Dumps in Bitcoin, it is usually a very ominous sign. In the past, these dumps were generally initiated on Bitstamp, cos Stamp was the 'best banked' exchange, the most liquid, and the most trusted. But Stamp has lost it's mantle these days to Finex, and Finex may show itself in the future, to be the 'cash out exchange'.

Not looking to take any short trade at this point in time, as whether Bitcoin takes a big dump, pretty much depends on the will of just a few whales and what their plans for BTC are, the time for the little guy to start eyeing up short trades is when the bearish momentum is underway, and all the FOMO buyers, slowly but surely, turn into panic sellers.

Perhaps this wasn't a 'Halving Pump' at all, but another BTC auction pump much like those we have seen in the past, whereby it was in somebodies interests, to get Bitcoin ramped in the run up to this auction?

[MatTheCat]

[barbs]

I already called this a few pages back, yes it is an auction pump, screw over bidders, maintain control of the BTC market.

[MatTheCat]

I already called this a few pages back, yes it is an auction pump, screw over bidders, maintain control of the BTC market.

Yep..I read your post somewhere.....forgot where though.

[barbs]

I will temper my statement by saying, bids are open from 24 hours for australian auction (from this morning, to tomorrow midnight australian time..)

So the big dump may not come until later this week...

[MatTheCat]

I will temper my statement by saying, bids are open from 24 hours for australian auction (from this morning, to tomorrow midnight australian time..)

So the big dump may not come until later this week...

Ok....so bidding is done by now. Finished 2 hours ago......First sign of dumpage came about 4 hours ago....

....yep..big dumps in BTC are even harder to predict (at least the start of them), than the pumps......such is the nature of such a controlled and manufactured market.

I expect plenty shorts who will be ultimately 'proven right', will get their ball's squeezed here before the big dump finally comes.....which is why I am staying the fk out of it.

[siameze]

I already called this a few pages back, yes it is an auction pump, screw over bidders, maintain control of the BTC market.

This is not an auction pump. Only 18M worth of btc is up for auction. The market makers this time must have put in way over 100M in the last 5 weeks. At least!
This is just a break for a moment, you'll see some sideways action form on the daily and then 1 or 2 more sideways weekly candles then moonshot.
Get ready!

[Luthier]

Mat, the RSI on your chart is showing massive hidden bull div.  Not saying 790 wasn't the top because level 1 thinking would suggest it is.  But selling needs to pick up in a big way soon to confirm.

[MatTheCat]

I already called this a few pages back, yes it is an auction pump, screw over bidders, maintain control of the BTC market.

This is not an auction pump. Only 18M worth of btc is up for auction. The market makers this time must have put in way over 100M in the last 5 weeks. At least!
This is just a break for a moment, you'll see some sideways action form on the daily and then 1 or 2 more sideways weekly candles then moonshot.
Get ready!

Bought $100M worth of Bitcoin in the past 5 weeks? Have they really?

How much of the exchange volume do you think is real, how much is smoke and mirrors, and of that that is actually real, how much do you think is one whale entity hand simply selling a bundle of Bitcoin with his left hand, and buying it with his right hand?

Around the time of the 2013 pump, I had done around $1 Million worth of business on Bitstamp, yet my capital always ranged on average, around $35K, (starting around $20K, getting up as high as $50k, before being somewhat destroyed). Do you see how this works?

The Australian auction was smaller than the FBI auctions, that much is true, 25K BTC v 50K BTC. But that is still a shit ton of BTC. If someone were to dump that amount with no intention of buying back lower, that would hammer the market, although with that said, I don't think the bidders intentions will be to dump, but rather the Bitcoin Cowboy Cartel (Chinese motherfuckers) intention was to make the bidders pay top dollar for their Bitcoin.....


Anyhow....came across this:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/20/all-that-glisters-is-bitcoin-now-as-safe-a-haven-as-gold.html

'Bitcoin, a safe haven asset just like gold"

lol!

Mainstream media telling Joe Public to FOMO buy into Bitcoin, right at the upper reaches of a Gann 1x8 defying megapump. These people are fucking sick! Why is the world so full of utter cunts?

Mat, the RSI on your chart is showing massive hidden bull div.  Not saying 790 wasn't the top because level 1 thinking would suggest it is.  But selling needs to pick up in a big way soon to confirm.

No. There is massive bear divergence on the last few sequence of tops, confirmed by the RSI putting in M top structure. Furthermore, that red RSI line (the 'VIP Line'), has proven a critical level for the whole of the pump. Every single leg up, has involved a breach of that line, the only times we have had any sort of correction, has also involved a breach of that line in the opposite direction. I would watch that level like a hawk.

What you are calling 'massive bull divergence', is what they call 'hidden divergence'. I don't pay much attention to hidden divergence.

Here:




You can see that the lower time frame MAs are all rainbow crossing bearishly. The 120 min doing so for the first time since the whole pump began, the faster 4hr MAs doing so for the first time since the pump began. If/when there is a 4Hr bearish rainbow cross, then Bitcoin will be in line for a bit of nasty corrective action, after such a parabolic move up. By the time that happens however, it will be a little too late to sell. Shorters need to try and front run that rainbow cross, and timing that will not be easy. Shorting is a hell of a lot harder to do that long trades.

[Bavaria]

So with your trading strategy with 20k you made only 15k. If you stepped in before the pump of 2013 at $100 per btc and emptied your bag at let`s say $800 you would make 140k (20x8-20). The lesson is that with btc it is always better to hold and not to trade with outdated fundamentals.

[MatTheCat]

So with your trading strategy with 20k you made only 15k. If you stepped in before the pump of 2013 at $100 per btc and emptied your bag at let`s say $800 you would make 140k (20x8-20). The lesson is that with btc it is always better to hold and not to trade with outdated fundamentals.

Nope..I came piling in at $700.....with Bitcoin Kool-Aid foaming out of my mouth.....I was very lucky I never got my arse handed to me.....back then I never even knew what a MACD was, what I did have, was a tremendous streak of beginner's luck, buying in, selling, higher, buying back in lower, in-out, in-out........sold at top, bought back on first dip down $580........

.......sold again at top, had a plan to buy back at $400-$500 range, but people on here kept telling me I was delusional, and I listened to them, so moved my buy in tranches up to $550-$650 range, and in the morning when I awoke to see Bitcoin had hit $380, learned how inexperienced and bad a trader I actually was, as I nursed my 35 BTC position, struggling around sub $500, on the 5 minute charts. I saw a decesending triangle break down...so I sold! Went out for a walk, by the time I came back, Bitcoin was up at $550.......been pretty much all down hill from there, as I scrapped around with TA that I didn't really understand, getting run over way more often than I would win......last straw came for me on the Nov 2015, when I sold too early, FOMO bought back in upper $300s, with double my original stake, then despair sold it all down at $300...

....after that, I decided to learn to take courses and learn to trade.

[Luthier]

Mat, the RSI on your chart is showing massive hidden bull div.  Not saying 790 wasn't the top because level 1 thinking would suggest it is.  But selling needs to pick up in a big way soon to confirm.

No. There is massive bear divergence on the last few sequence of tops, confirmed by the RSI putting in M top structure. Furthermore, that red RSI line (the 'VIP Line'), has proven a critical level for the whole of the pump. Every single leg up, has involved a breach of that line, the only times we have had any sort of correction, has also involved a breach of that line in the opposite direction. I would watch that level like a hawk.

What you are calling 'massive bull divergence', is what they call 'hidden divergence'. I don't pay much attention to hidden divergence.

Lol, thanks for telling me exactly what I wrote.  The point is that the bearish divergence already resolved itself with both price and the RSI making a lower high.  The hidden bullish divergence (signal of trend continuation) has not resolved itself yet.

But divergences aren't everything as we've seen this whole rally.  The trick to Bitcoin trading is actually child's play because the market gives you so many beautiful triangle consolidations.  Trade the triangle breaks = profit.  Stoploss at breakout point in case of a fakeout.  So the correct play was to buy at 455-465, and sell at around 755 when the triangle broke down.  It sounds easy in retrospect but it's exactly what I did so it must not be too hard.

"Buying the dips" or pullbacks is actually not the best strategy in a rally like this because the price never reaches your targets, until it blows past them as the bubble pops. 

[MatTheCat]

Lol, thanks for telling me exactly what I wrote.  The point is that the bearish divergence already resolved itself with both price and the RSI making a lower high.  The hidden bullish divergence (signal of trend continuation) has not resolved itself yet.

But divergences aren't everything as we've seen this whole rally.  The trick to Bitcoin trading is actually child's play because the market gives you so many beautiful triangle consolidations.  Trade the triangle breaks = profit.  Stoploss at breakout point in case of a fakeout.  So the correct play was to buy at 455-465, and sell at around 755 when the triangle broke down.  It sounds easy in retrospect but it's exactly what I did so it must not be too hard.

"Buying the dips" or pullbacks is actually not the best strategy in a rally like this because the price never reaches your targets, until it blows past them as the bubble pops. 

Divergences have gone right to the back of the things that I look at for a trade setup after this rally.......divegences aren't for trending markets, unless u can pick a divergence out on a scale that places the trend within a 'range'.....

....but if I were to be looking for a position short here, based on that divergence, then now that the divergence (shown on chart) has confirmed, I would be looking for a pullback, which may see the MACD cross back inot positive territory, or may see the RSI go up to test the old high, and hopefully fail, without putting in another divergence (i.e. price taking out old high while RSI weakens).

...I had my eye on the 'break'...and bought at $475....sold at $525.......and just kind of pissed over my shoes in and out, ever since....the worst was me predicting $677 Bitcoin at upper $500s, but refusing to jump in until $540 38.2% retest....didn't come....this shit is the cause of much anxiety and frustration...still $1000 richer in fiat terms since the pump began (which is better than a kick in the teeth)...but am able to control a considerably smaller BTC position than I was before it, obviously.

[r0ach]

been pretty much all down hill from there, as I scrapped around with TA that I didn't really understand

new quote generated

[MatTheCat]

[Hunyadi]

Some of your lines will explain price movements:


 

[pontikis13]

Matt, I just wanted to say that I appreciate the time you spend sharing your thoughts through this thread. You're clearly improving as a trader over time so don't pay attention to haters like r0ach. When someone constantly tries to put you down despite the fact that you haven't done anything to them it becomes obvious that they are dealing with their own personal issues and are just taking it out on you. I actually enjoy reading his posts when they are on topic but all the personal attack BS is completely unnecessary. One of the best ways to learn is through discussion with others and I must say I've learnt a thing or two from your thread including the importance of remaining logical and putting in the necessary work to improve. Cheers

[MatTheCat]

Some of your lines will explain price movements:


 

Gann is rather esoteric to say the least....but I will tell you what...it is a habit of throwing up some pretty interesting levels....

Check these out on Gold for the past 16-17 years:

[MatTheCat]

Matt, I just wanted to say that I appreciate the time you spend sharing your thoughts through this thread. You're clearly improving as a trader over time so don't pay attention to haters like r0ach. When someone constantly tries to put you down despite the fact that you haven't done anything to them it becomes obvious that they are dealing with their own personal issues and are just taking it out on you. I actually enjoy reading his posts when they are on topic but all the personal attack BS is completely unnecessary. One of the best ways to learn is through discussion with others and I must say I've learnt a thing or two from your thread including the importance of remaining logical and putting in the necessary work to improve. Cheers

Thanks for saying so. One thing that I am discovering big style, through seeing the massively improved success rate in my 'paper trades', is the extent to which emotions affect trading efficiency. Whether they be from the pressure the market puts u under, or from 'allegiances' to any opinion that you have put out, and feel the need to defend. Some people just have that cool, calm, and collective thing about them and that is what it takes above all else to be an effective trader....people who oculd walk through an airport carrying a kilo of cocaine in their sack, without so much as blinking an eyelid, are the people who would make shit hot traders....them and Aspergers patients, who naturally devoid of 'illogical' emotions.

Don't know how I am going to get around this conundrum...perhaps just reduce bet sizes to meangingless amounts, and slowly ramp them up over time.

Some of your lines will explain price movements:


 

Gann is rather esoteric to say the least....but I will tell you what...it is a habit of throwing up some pretty interesting levels....

Check these out on Gold for the past 16-17 years:




If u know the rules of Gann, you will see lots of frankly stunning shit going on. Sure, hindsight is 20/20, calling these scenarios to play out in advance is quite another. With that said, Going by what I see there, I say Gold is going to rocket going forward, but obviously, Mkt Buy gold now, and it could slip easily $100, barely even scratching. the long term setup going off that chart. Gann is best used as a 'roadmap', other than to provide trade entry and exit points.

[zimmah]

Of course no one ran to Bitcoin before, because Bitcoin wasn't invented yet.

You knew what happend the last time the economy crashed? Some genius or geniuses invented Bitcoin as a solution.

Gold never solved the problem, maybe Bitcoin won't solve it either, but it is a new option, and it's better than gold. If even a fraction of the people that normally flee to gold realize this, Bitcoin will skyrocket.    

Why not take a leap of faith and invest 2-5% of your wealth in Bitcoin just in case? What's the worst that can happen? Is losing 2-5% of your wealth going to ruin you? If it takes of you might end up 10 times as rich.

It's an assymetrical trade if I ever saw one. If you win, you win so big it will change your life, if you lose, meh, you just lost some pocket change, who cares.

Power grids can go down (look at Venezuala for current example of economic collapse), which amongst other things, means no internet.

Mining farms can be shut down, or in the case of war, destroyed.


The only thing that Bitcoin has in common with gold, is that very few hands, control far too much of the stuff.

This would only happen in the most extreme cases of financial collapse, if it's more like 2008 or the Great Depression than people will lose jobs and companies would go bankrupt and such, but the Internet and the power would not go down.      

Bitcoin would thrive in such a situation, and I think that's more likely than going back to the Stone Age.      

There have to be very big events for the Internet to be shut down, and even if that were to happen, we can find other ways to transact Bitcoin. We just use Internet for convenience but Bitcoin does not rely on it. It's dead easy to use other communication networks or even set up your own. And not all of them need massive technology or lots of power.