Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1715494354]

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[1715494354]

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[keithers]

BTC is continuing to hold pretty steady, the rest of the coins are on like a slow slippage...they seem to be losing value by the day, little by little...

Typically BTC is there to pull the rest of the coins up, but lately when there are price rallies, it is BTC only...

[Dotto]

BTC is continuing to hold pretty steady, the rest of the coins are on like a slow slippage...they seem to be losing value by the day, little by little...

Typically BTC is there to pull the rest of the coins up, but lately when there are price rallies, it is BTC only...

Well, Monero is performing quite decently.

https://www.poloniex.com/exchange/btc_xmr

I see it as the next LTC, and not, Im not invested (yet) just trying to catch the inminent next dip.

[Wary]

That said, if someone else does know about a (peer reviewed even?) study on the efficacy of TA, I'd be interested.

EDIT: I'm a lazy bastard. I just didn't look very well. How about this one? Looks pretty good to me as a broad overview:

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=603481

TL;DR

Among a total of 92 modern studies, 58 studies found positive results regarding technical trading strategies, while 24 studies obtained negative results. Ten studies indicated mixed results. Despite the positive evidence on the profitability of technical trading strategies, it appears that most empirical studies are subject to various problems in their testing procedures, e.g., data snooping, ex post selection of trading rules or search technologies, and difficulties in estimation of risk and transaction costs. Future research must address these deficiencies in testing in order to provide conclusive evidence on the profitability of technical trading strategies.

Did I mention I'm lazy?

a) Back testing of TA should be very easy: all data available, all strategies are easy to program, computers are fast. It would take no time to test all sets of indicators and all strategies in all markets for all years. If only 2/3 of studies give some positive result, it means that profitability of TA, if exists at all, is at noise level. For practical purposes, an average trader can assume that TA doesn't work.
b) But bitcoin is different (c). It is exponentially growing market, therefore it is very far from efficient market, so it should be possible to earn on it. TA should work different here. It would be interesting to see any research of TA on bitcoin market. But probably such researches don't yet exist. And by the time they will appear, it'll be too late: bitcoin will stabilize and will become subject of "normal" TA, like forex or stock.

[bigdave]

Stamp is kinda quiet right now. Is this the calm before the storm?

[Carra23]

What are the charts saying today? Up, down? I think we will have to wait at least till Wednesday or Thursday to see which side it is headed.

[thefunkybits]

Stamp is kinda quiet right now. Is this the calm before the storm?

We bounced off 50% Fibonacci retracement (540 ish) with low volume and I'm expecting new short-term lows down to 520 ish (61% fib retrace) at somepoint before the next run-up. New money during this week could keep the boat afloat but a breakout to new highs will take some time to build (especially considering whales will be buying chunks of SR coin off-market)

[bigdave]

What are the charts saying today? Up, down? I think we will have to wait at least till Wednesday or Thursday to see which side it is headed.

Bid walls on stamp forming at 555 and 540.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ihaveaquestion]

What is a 'weak hand'? Why is this type of penny stock terminology used in bitcoin? Does this imply that bitcoin is some type of investment scheme to hold rather than a currency to use?

It's a poker term long before "penny stocks." It means you lack confidence in you ability to play.

So it's a profit making game and not the future of money?

Is money not about profit?

Bitcoin is supposed to be about creating a decentralized network to change the way the world does finance and payments - not about getting all the bitcoin participants to be rich off of the successive waves of bitcoin participants because the unit value rose and having a contest about who made the most profits.

I invested to make money and to be able to reach some goals ( the volatility makes it easier than working hard to earn that money )... I literally don't give a fuck about the technology behind it, it is a cool innovation and all but I don't think it is a reason for to risk my life savings and be a "strong hand" when I could collect profits and not be a greedy bastard.... most of the time people here will attack you when you tell them that you are trading to make a profit or when you tell them you cashed out some of your holdings....

I attacked you because you said you went full LTC which is foolish, LTC is tanking and doomed to fail. If you are considering so, you'd better go full fiat. I have no problem with people who don't see the big picture selling their stash of bitcoins. Enjoy your life.

[Dotto]

Monero crashing following my prediction some minutes ago! Cmon baby, crash like a boss!!

[medialab101]

Big dumps on Stamps

[bitgeek]

Big dumps on Stamps

300 BTC is a big dump? Since when?

[bitcoinsrus]

Big dumps on Stamps

300 BTC is a big dump? Since when?

in the year 2140, when the block reward is 100 satoshi 

[minerpumpkin]

Honey badger temporarily choking on some bear meat...

[adamstgBit]

Inspirational Buy All the Bitcoins Speech

Sons of the internet, I am AdamStgBit, and I see a whole army of my countrymen here in defiance of closed source centralized systems, you've come here to buy and sell on the free market, and a free men you are ( expect for Jorge, sadly...). What will you do without FREEDOM!?? WILL YOU BUY!?

"No! No! we will sell and/or hope for lower prices, if not, least we'll have some fiat, to pay the bills"

Ya ok, buy now and you might lose, sell now and you'll have some fiat to pay the bills.

At least a while...

And drowning in debt many years from now, would you be willing to trade all the days from this day to that, for once chance, just one chance! to come back here and tell the bankers that they may take our mortgage payment directly out of our accounts without asking, and even take the house after taking all our money, but they'll never take our BITCOINS!!!

* inspired by https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L21-vnlPk_o *

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[maker88]

Inspirational Buy All the Bitcoins Speech

Sons of the internet, I am AdamStgBit, and I see a whole army of my countrymen here in defiance of closed source centralized systems, you've come here to buy and sell on the free market, and a free men you are ( expect for Jorge, sadly...). What will you do without FREEDOM!?? WILL YOU BUY!?

"No! No! we will sell and/or hope for lower prices, if not, least we'll have some fiat, to pay the bills"

Ya ok, buy now and you might lose, sell now and you'll have some fiat to pay the bills.

At least a while...

And drowning in debt many years from now, would you be willing to trade all the days from this day to that, for once chance, just one chance! to come back here and tell the bankers that they may take our mortgage payment directly out of our accounts without asking, and even take the house after taking all our money, but they'll never take our BITCOINS!!!

* inspired by https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L21-vnlPk_o *

thank you so much for that haha. recited it in mel gibsons scottish accent and it gave me chills haha I'm ready to buy! too bad I'm out of fiat

[aminorex]

a) Back testing of TA should be very easy: all data available, all strategies are easy to program, computers are fast. It would take no time to test all sets of indicators and all strategies in all markets for all years. If only 2/3 of studies give some positive result, it means that profitability of TA, if exists at all, is at noise level. For practical purposes, an average trader can assume that TA doesn't work.
b) But bitcoin is different (c). It is exponentially growing market, therefore it is very far from efficient market, so it should be possible to earn on it. TA should work different here. It would be interesting to see any research of TA on bitcoin market. But probably such researches don't yet exist. And by the time they will appear, it'll be too late: bitcoin will stabilize and will become subject of "normal" TA, like forex or stock.

It is more subtle than that.  Any computable function, and many non-computable functions, can be made into a strategy.  That's a very large space.  What you consider a successful strategy is itself a subtle and complex question.  Bounding the amount of overfit is something of an art, for example.

What is easy is deciding whether a given estimator outperforms the current price as an estimate of the future price at some particular time.  Somewhat more useful is deciding under which conditions of the environment it is an outperforming predictor, and how large is the edge in each class.

The book Evidence Based Technical Analysis is a good overview, suited to the layman.  Marcos Lopez de Prado has some recent work on measuring overfit which is quite excellent, if you're interested in the cutting edge, and mathematically literate.