Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Last of the V8s]

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-global-bitcoin-france-germany/france-germany-to-make-joint-bitcoin-regulation-proposal-at-g20-summit-idUKKBN1F728X?il=0
looks like we're going to have to fight them on the beaches again

[User705]

FWIW, I'm HODLing until at least next week. Still on track for end of Q1 retirement. Resolving some banking and exchange issues with making sure wire transfers are cleanly hitting the target account (... have I mentioned how silly the entire banking system is ?)

Still in the process of moving off the first large chunk of fiatcoin off the exchange, and don't want to load up any more until the USD balance reads $0. Over half-way there at this point.

Mentally "OK" with selling the next chunk @ $12.5k USD/BTC, but my gut tells me we're going to head above that by the time I'm ready to cash out again, sometime mid next week.

EDIT: a word

All these retirement posts.  Smells like a top.

[jojo69]

I'm bored

[Biodom]

FWIW, I'm HODLing until at least next week. Still on track for end of Q1 retirement. Resolving some banking and exchange issues with making sure wire transfers are cleanly hitting the target account (... have I mentioned how silly the entire banking system is ?)

Still in the process of moving off the first large chunk of fiatcoin off the exchange, and don't want to load up any more until the USD balance reads $0. Over half-way there at this point.

Mentally "OK" with selling the next chunk @ $12.5k USD/BTC, but my gut tells me we're going to head above that by the time I'm ready to cash out again, sometime mid next week.

EDIT: a word

In the other news: "Bitcoin has been undergoing a slight dip as the notorious self described "gay cowboy" bitcointalk message board poster was selling to finance his presumably lavish "retirement" style."

 

[Karartma1]

Compared to other threads on bitcointalk, reddit, twitter, facebook.

It seems everybody in this thread is chill and hodling.

Guess being an old adopter comes with its perks.

If you attended the WO thread during the dark days of 2014/2015, well those last two days are just nothing compared. We saw bitcoin coming to where it is now.
What did I learn from those days?
The following:

[Torque]

Compared to other threads on bitcointalk, reddit, twitter, facebook.

It seems everybody in this thread is chill and hodling.

Guess being an old adopter comes with its perks.

The problem is that the crypto kiddies don't really have any skin in the game to see things play out long term. If they put in $300 or even $1000 and they end up with 50% profit (say $1500), they cash out and go blow it on something stupid. Presumably because their mind tells them "Well I'll never get wealthy on $1500 anyway, might as well just spend it then." Meanwhile they continue to run up their credit cards and work hand-to-mouth, essentially forever.

This is the mindset of the forever poor. They can't conceive of how to turn that $1500 into $5k, then $20k, then $100k, and so on until they have some real wealth. This is why there aren't more millionaires running around in every country of the world. No long term vision, no patience, and no discipline. It can take a decade or two to build real wealth, which so many don't have the vision or patience for.

[OWZ1337]

Compared to other threads on bitcointalk, reddit, twitter, facebook.

It seems everybody in this thread is chill and hodling.

Guess being an old adopter comes with its perks.

The problem is that the crypto kiddies don't really have any skin in the game to see things play out long term. If they put in $300 or even $1000 and they end up with 50% profit (say $1500), they cash out and go blow it on something stupid. Presumably because their mind tells them "Well I'll never get wealthy on $1500 anyway, might as well just spend it then." Meanwhile they continue to run up their credit cards and work hand-to-mouth, essentially forever.

This is the mindset of the forever poor. They can't conceive of how to turn that $1500 into $5k, then $20k, then $100k, and so on until they have some real wealth. This is why there aren't more millionaires running around in every country of the world. No long term vision, no patience, and no discipline. It can take a decade or two to build real wealth, which so many don't have the vision or patience for.

ya these millennials even if you gave them wealth ~ do they know what to do with it? Investing in the real world is a loooong and boring game that takes immense patience...this fast food society :\ meh

[yonton]

12000 resistance is getting weaker

[Paashaas]

Making (life changing) profits is nice but it should not be youre main focus. A lot of projects comming oure way to achieve financial freedom.

Fck banksters, Fck goverments, Fck this rotten financial fiat debt slave pyramid ponzi slave system, Fck Roger Ver and his shills.

Bitcoin gives the power back to the people that is by orders of magnitude more important.

[Elwar]

What's with $200 spread on Bitfinex vs everyone else ?

Perhaps a big short on finex?

[Deeyoh]

Noticed that earlier during the 1000BTC $12k sell wall break through this morning. All the other exchanges broke through but Bitfinex never made it past 11,900.  Looks like a bearwhale wanted to offload or maybe trying to cover huge shorts.

[jbreher]

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-global-bitcoin-france-germany/france-germany-to-make-joint-bitcoin-regulation-proposal-at-g20-summit-idUKKBN1F728X?il=0
looks like we're going to have to fight them on the beaches again

Not the beaches again. Grrr. i was kinda hoping for the hills this time.

[yonton]

Bittrex, polo and many others haven't broken 12000 yet. Actually it was only gdax and bitstamp that had a fake break. My finger is reaching for full margin.

[xhomerx10]

Compared to other threads on bitcointalk, reddit, twitter, facebook.

It seems everybody in this thread is chill and hodling.

Guess being an old adopter comes with its perks.

The problem is that the crypto kiddies don't really have any skin in the game to see things play out long term. If they put in $300 or even $1000 and they end up with 50% profit (say $1500), they cash out and go blow it on something stupid. Presumably because their mind tells them "Well I'll never get wealthy on $1500 anyway, might as well just spend it then." Meanwhile they continue to run up their credit cards and work hand-to-mouth, essentially forever.

This is the mindset of the forever poor. They can't conceive of how to turn that $1500 into $5k, then $20k, then $100k, and so on until they have some real wealth. This is why there aren't more millionaires running around in every country of the world. No long term vision, no patience, and no discipline. It can take a decade or two to build real wealth, which so many don't have the vision or patience for.

 Most of the GDP of nearly every country stems from consumer spending.  Those long term gains built from your patience and vision depend on it.  If everyone tried to live as you, it would be much more difficult for you and me to build real wealth. 
Shhhhh...

[Elix9]

Oof 

[jbreher]

Fck banksters, Fck goverments, Fck this rotten financial fiat debt slave pyramid ponzi slave system, Fck Roger Ver and his shills.

♫♩♩♩♩♫♫
One of these things is not like the others
♫♩♩♩♫♫
One of these things ain't really the same

[Last of the V8s]

yeah no one wants to fuck Ver that's for sure

[infofront]

Fck banksters, Fck goverments, Fck this rotten financial fiat debt slave pyramid ponzi slave system, Fck Roger Ver and his shills.

♫♩♩♩♩♫♫
One of these things is not like the others
♫♩♩♩♫♫
One of these things ain't really the same

Like most things, that depends on your perspective.

[julian071]

I received a PM asking for some clarification on my trading system. I figured I'd add the reply here, in case others might find it of some interest. First, the question, then the clarification:

Hey!

Sorry to bother you,I'm kind of a trading newbie(just got in the market mid-july) but i'd like to ask a few questions about your trading method.

I've seen that you sell x amount of btc on every 250$ it rises and buy y amount of btc every 250$ it falls.

Could you please explain it further?
 How should I set my buy/sell orders?( With 1BTC as the starting amount for example)

As I got it, it looks something like this:
You have 1 BTC, the price is 10 000$.
Once it hits 10250, you sell 0.1BTC for example
You have 0.9 BTC+ 1025$
BTC price falls back to 10 000$, you buy 1025/10000=0.1025
You have 1.025 BTC
 But what if you sell 0.1 every 250$, price is at 12500$ and you are all in fiat, out of BTC?
If BTC would have a bull run above 12,5k, i'd be sitting on the sidelines all in fiat. Is the solution to this is that you keep using your profits to buy/sell at a higher price scale?

I'd love to hear your opinion or technic on this!

Thanks,

Hi -
You've got the basics. However, you correctly have detected a risk in such trading. If your trades at each increment are a significant percentage of your total holdings, then you risk running out of Bitcoin before the price rises very high. You will run out of Bitcoin when the Bitcoin price is (interval * 1/percentage) + price_at_start.

The solution, of course, is to make your trade at each interval a smaller percentage of your overall holdings.

For example, if you start today to trade one-onethousandth (0.1%) of your base at each interval, you won't run out of Bitcoin until the Bitcoin price is ($250 * 1/0.1%)+~$12000 = ~$262,000.00 per Bitcoin*.

If we ever get that high (I would not be particularly surprised), you'll be selling your last tenth-Bitcoin for $26,200. Not too bad.

*Actually, if you take your profits on the Bitcoin side rather than the $ side, this is a worst-case scenario. The volatility between today and the time we hit $250,000 will result in additional profit in the form of additional Bitcoin. This will extend the upper range at which you will run out of Bitcoin. Will it extend it to $300,000? $500,000? $1M? Interminably? No way of knowing in advance. But safe to assume it will extend it somewhat.

I suggest running out a bunch of scenarios in Excel, playing around with interval, percentage, and volatility profit, and map out a scenario with which you feel comfortable.

I'm not sure whether or not this is the 'best' trading strategy. However, it removes the need to be prescient in where the market is going. As long as the overall direction of the market is up, it will return consistent profits. It can also generate profits in down markets (that's when you build your Bitcoin holdings). It also maximizes return on market volatility. And the Bitcoin market is famously volatile. Most importantly, it is automatic. It removes the mistakes you might make due to overexuberance or panic.

It may be worth mentioning that I leave many open orders on both the buy side and the sell side. This has two benefits:
1) It ensures that quick market moves will not outrun my ability to enter new orders.
2) It reduces my trading costs.
To explain 2) further, exchanges charge a fee for trading - that's how they profit and are able to stay in business. Different exchanges have different pricing structures. Each exchange allocates fees to each side of the trade. This can be allocated to the buyer and seller roles, or it can be allocated to the maker and taker roles. I do this trading at an exchange that charges only the taker side of the deal. Limit orders (the type of orders I enter) are the 'maker' role, so there is no fee for this trade.

Of course, leaving open orders on the exchange requires you having value locked up on the exchange. Many exchanges 'have been hacked' (sometimes probably a synonym for 'owners ran away with everybody's money'), leaving their customers Bitcoin-less. This counterparty risk is something you need to be comfortable with.

Of all the exchanges available to Americans, I trust GDAX the most as far as counterparty risk. Further, their price structure is 'free to maker'. For these two reasons, GDAX is where I do this trading. YMMV.

Thank you! Very clear explanation, helpt a newbie friend with it.

[User705]

I received a PM asking for some clarification on my trading system. I figured I'd add the reply here, in case others might find it of some interest. First, the question, then the clarification:

Hey!

Sorry to bother you,I'm kind of a trading newbie(just got in the market mid-july) but i'd like to ask a few questions about your trading method.

I've seen that you sell x amount of btc on every 250$ it rises and buy y amount of btc every 250$ it falls.

Could you please explain it further?
 How should I set my buy/sell orders?( With 1BTC as the starting amount for example)

As I got it, it looks something like this:
You have 1 BTC, the price is 10 000$.
Once it hits 10250, you sell 0.1BTC for example
You have 0.9 BTC+ 1025$
BTC price falls back to 10 000$, you buy 1025/10000=0.1025
You have 1.025 BTC
 But what if you sell 0.1 every 250$, price is at 12500$ and you are all in fiat, out of BTC?
If BTC would have a bull run above 12,5k, i'd be sitting on the sidelines all in fiat. Is the solution to this is that you keep using your profits to buy/sell at a higher price scale?

I'd love to hear your opinion or technic on this!

Thanks,

Hi -
You've got the basics. However, you correctly have detected a risk in such trading. If your trades at each increment are a significant percentage of your total holdings, then you risk running out of Bitcoin before the price rises very high. You will run out of Bitcoin when the Bitcoin price is (interval * 1/percentage) + price_at_start.

The solution, of course, is to make your trade at each interval a smaller percentage of your overall holdings.

For example, if you start today to trade one-onethousandth (0.1%) of your base at each interval, you won't run out of Bitcoin until the Bitcoin price is ($250 * 1/0.1%)+~$12000 = ~$262,000.00 per Bitcoin*.

If we ever get that high (I would not be particularly surprised), you'll be selling your last tenth-Bitcoin for $26,200. Not too bad.

*Actually, if you take your profits on the Bitcoin side rather than the $ side, this is a worst-case scenario. The volatility between today and the time we hit $250,000 will result in additional profit in the form of additional Bitcoin. This will extend the upper range at which you will run out of Bitcoin. Will it extend it to $300,000? $500,000? $1M? Interminably? No way of knowing in advance. But safe to assume it will extend it somewhat.

I suggest running out a bunch of scenarios in Excel, playing around with interval, percentage, and volatility profit, and map out a scenario with which you feel comfortable.

I'm not sure whether or not this is the 'best' trading strategy. However, it removes the need to be prescient in where the market is going. As long as the overall direction of the market is up, it will return consistent profits. It can also generate profits in down markets (that's when you build your Bitcoin holdings). It also maximizes return on market volatility. And the Bitcoin market is famously volatile. Most importantly, it is automatic. It removes the mistakes you might make due to overexuberance or panic.

It may be worth mentioning that I leave many open orders on both the buy side and the sell side. This has two benefits:
1) It ensures that quick market moves will not outrun my ability to enter new orders.
2) It reduces my trading costs.
To explain 2) further, exchanges charge a fee for trading - that's how they profit and are able to stay in business. Different exchanges have different pricing structures. Each exchange allocates fees to each side of the trade. This can be allocated to the buyer and seller roles, or it can be allocated to the maker and taker roles. I do this trading at an exchange that charges only the taker side of the deal. Limit orders (the type of orders I enter) are the 'maker' role, so there is no fee for this trade.

Of course, leaving open orders on the exchange requires you having value locked up on the exchange. Many exchanges 'have been hacked' (sometimes probably a synonym for 'owners ran away with everybody's money'), leaving their customers Bitcoin-less. This counterparty risk is something you need to be comfortable with.

Of all the exchanges available to Americans, I trust GDAX the most as far as counterparty risk. Further, their price structure is 'free to maker'. For these two reasons, GDAX is where I do this trading. YMMV.

Thank you! Very clear explanation, helpt a newbie friend with it.

Except all of this implies a buy at some sort of relative bottom. If 20k was top and your first buy is in high teens you might just sit and stare at your screen for the next two years.  A good strategy is to also set aside a specific dollar amount to buy into at regular dropping intervals.  So for example every 500-1k drop from 10k you buy x dollar amount.  If it keeps dropping you’ll keep accumulating more and more BTC.  On the way down take profit in BTC on the way up if we get past ATH take profit in fiat.