Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jbreher]

I think the real news there is that a Norwegian company has 31,000 employees? Who knew.  

And they are wasting worktime when they daytrade.

Given the translation, I don't understand the scope. Is the company forbidding trading on the company's dime? On the company's time? Or any trading -- even private, off-hours -- on the part of employees?

[Typex]

I think the real news there is that a Norwegian company has 31,000 employees? Who knew.  

And they are wasting worktime when they daytrade.

Given the translation, I don't understand the scope. Is the company forbidding trading on the company's dime? On the company's time? Or any trading -- even private, off-hours -- on the part of employees?

It must be on the companies time.  I doubt they could forbid a perfectly legal activity done outside the companies time.

[jbreher]

Along these lines, I'm looking to build myself a "proper" server to run Bitcoind and LND. Ideally RAID 10 for the boot volume, and RAID 10 for the blockchain/LND volume.

Figure software RAID under Ubuntu is good enough (?)

Disk bandwidth will be pretty low. SW RAID is fine. mdadm is your friend.

[HairyMaclairy]

Does RSK support tokens like ERC20? 

[Arriemoller]

I think the real news there is that a Norwegian company has 31,000 employees? Who knew.  

And they are wasting worktime when they daytrade.

Given the translation, I don't understand the scope. Is the company forbidding trading on the company's dime? On the company's time? Or any trading -- even private, off-hours -- on the part of employees?

I want to know that too. If someone could post the original article in full (it's behind a paywall) I will read, translate, and give a TLDR.

[jbreher]

I think it’s the requirement for an “always online” connnection. Just easier with cloud.  

Don’t ask me to explain what happens if your node goes offline.  I don’t know.

It enables each of your channel counterparts to broadcast transactions stealing the value you have locked up in that channel, for one. Amongst other ills.

And gives said counterpart the chance to have their whole assets on that channel forfeited by you if anyone snitches on them within a week. I wouldn't try that.

Comprehensive list of entities currently operating such a service:
1) 

By the way, the phrase you wrote and I underlined could be read as meaning that there are several counterparts per channel. There are only two actors for each channel: yourself and the other end (counterpart).

Yes, bit if you have more than one channel, each with one counterparty, you have in total more than one counterparty. That's all I was trying to convey there.

[pera]

I wonder what explains the difference between these two trends during the last couple of months.

uhhhh

nineteen THOUSAND fucking dollars?

No, actually what I meant was the difference between the trends for the terms "bitcoin" and "cryptocurrency": as you can see in the last month "bitcoin" almost halved, but "cryptocurrency" recovered the same level of searches after a dip. It seems that the interest in altcoins is now less tied to Bitcoin, yet in the market prices still follow Bitcoin.

[jbreher]

Those are the good posts, jbreher. 

there is a reason he isn't on ignore

that and the politeness

Thanks. I try not to inject negativity.

[jbreher]

I think the real news there is that a Norwegian company has 31,000 employees? Who knew.  

And they are wasting worktime when they daytrade.

Given the translation, I don't understand the scope. Is the company forbidding trading on the company's dime? On the company's time? Or any trading -- even private, off-hours -- on the part of employees?

It must be on the companies time.  I doubt they could forbid a perfectly legal activity done outside the companies time.

That's what I think too. Than again, I'm 'merkin. From my vantage point, eurozone is ever-so-slightly leading us into full-on batshit-crazy socialism. So, dunno.

[Karartma1]

I miss Carolina, gentlemen, moon and Choo choos.

Carolina loves you. She loves gentlemen that travel by train.

The price doesn't move based on good or bad news, it moves based on charts which reflect how investors invest based on the direction of the price.

All of those n00bs that bought in thinking they would make 10x their money are now getting out because they didn't realize the price could go down. rekt!

Fixed that for you.
And it's good they are getting rekt. We need strong hands (hodlers)

This is going to be the Bitcoin chart. You heard it from me first.

Quoting again for reference. It's astonishingly similar to BRK.A
Wait for us WB

[Rsiyz]

Olive Branch   

[OWZ1337]

Those are the good posts, jbreher. 

there is a reason he isn't on ignore

that and the politeness

Thanks. I try not to inject negativity.

wheres your "crypto-god" ceo now?   weee

[d_eddie]

These are the bad posts, jbreher.  

I'll try the homespun solution, install docker and all.

I'd be interested in your Internet bandwidth consumption, should you be wiling to share.

I will post some data, but don't hold your breath. I'll need some free time to install the thing - starting with Docker - and some more to figure out how to measure LN's bandwitdh tax unbundled from bitcoind's base requirements. Got any suggestions?

Now we get to the "bad boy" part.

My (perhaps flawed) understanding is that in the current implementation, all nodes broadcast all channel state changes to all other nodes. This is necessary, of course, as nobody yet knows how to do decentralized permissionless anonymous path route discovery.

That's incorrect. Nobody yet knows how to do decentralized permissionless anonymous OPTIMAL path route discovery. Heuristic methods with stored forward tables do work reasonably well. Several mesh-like networks work, without a single tear about being suboptimal.

EDIT: not sure, but optimality (or substantial improvements on route length) could be achieved by permissioning just the network-shaping, route discovery functions. Permissions could be earned by showing reliability and revoked for rogue nodes that systematically misreport.

For those playing along at home, you'll no doubt note that (should my understanding be correct), BW consumption scales at O(n^2).

I'm sure it will improve when the routing invention breakthrough occurs.

Of course - the clueless developers! D'oh, what an unforgivable oversight! The system they implemented is doomed. They chose the SAN (Spam All Network) algorithm for both route discovery and node state update. They slept during their networking lessons, or was it calculus? So they failed to notice that bandwidth grows quadratically with the number of nodes. This way, it's almost as bad as if one increased the block size. But who would ever think of that?

Out of sarcasm: I'll never believe the protocol broadcasts data mindlessly. On TOR transport, link capacity is precious and doesn't get flooded with irrelevant data. I've never studied the matter in detail, but as an informed guess, I'd go for something like neighborhood broadcasting with empirical discovery of TTL (max distance for broadcasting, initially conservatively low). Once you've found a route that works, you keep it until it stops working - or TOR signals it's time to change circuit. Randomized timing etc. are all nice options to obfuscate things a little more and make network analysis harder.

[J. Cooper]

I'm also curious where BTC will be at the end of 2018?

As are we all.

Somebody did a monte carlo simulation based upon a random sampling of daily returns. The center of the probability distribution function was $55.5K.

$55,530 center of distribution
Probability of less than $13K - 9.84%
80% confidence interval: $13,200.00-$271,277.00

You can quibble with the validity of past returns used as a basis for future predictions, but its one analysis.

https://medium.com/@xoelop/weve-simulated-the-bitcoin-price-for-the-whole-2018-you-won-t-believe-the-result-4a602679dac2

That's a pretty solid analysis (bookmarked), $55K is a very realistic prediction. I would only assume that at the end of 2018 $55K wouldn't have been to all time high but still a very good price estimation. At the end of the day it's still educated guessing but it was refreshing to see a HQ price analysis based on raw math.

[d_eddie]

I think it’s the requirement for an “always online” connnection. Just easier with cloud.  

Don’t ask me to explain what happens if your node goes offline.  I don’t know.

It enables each of your channel counterparts to broadcast transactions stealing the value you have locked up in that channel, for one. Amongst other ills.

And gives said counterpart the chance to have their whole assets on that channel forfeited by you if anyone snitches on them within a week. I wouldn't try that.

Comprehensive list of entities currently operating such a service:
1)  

Currently: you and yourself. You must hurry and do it within a week. Can you switch on your LN node once a week until it syncs your own channels only?
Outsourcing to to others, uh, well, hm, we're still working on it  

However, as usage increases, IF (and it's a big IF) this kind of cheat should become popular (which I don't think, being too risky because it implies you do have a stake in the channel - you're not just stealing someone else's coins), then I'm sure several such services will appear, as the marginal cost of running a patrol service alongside your own LN node is so low as to be negligible. Like buying a cheap lottery ticket. Find a thief, grab some coin. Why not? Let me engage in a flight of fantasy: future LN clients for desktop machines will have patrolling functions included, and there will be a switch NOT to run a patrol service. Working as a part-time guardian will be the default.

[Typex]

I'm also curious where BTC will be at the end of 2018?

As are we all.

Somebody did a monte carlo simulation based upon a random sampling of daily returns. The center of the probability distribution function was $55.5K.

$55,530 center of distribution
Probability of less than $13K - 9.84%
80% confidence interval: $13,200.00-$271,277.00

You can quibble with the validity of past returns used as a basis for future predictions, but its one analysis.

https://medium.com/@xoelop/weve-simulated-the-bitcoin-price-for-the-whole-2018-you-won-t-believe-the-result-4a602679dac2

That's a pretty solid analysis (bookmarked), $55K is a very realistic prediction. I would only assume that at the end of 2018 $55K wouldn't have been to all time high but still a very good price estimation. At the end of the day it's still educated guessing but it was refreshing to see a HQ price analysis based on raw math.

I would assume that a high percentage of those random walks resulted in their ATHs reaching very close to the end of the year.

[El duderino_]

Breaking 24777$ prediction game      FINAL LIST        

27/12/2017 bikerleszno
29/12/2018 cAPSLOCK  
30/12/2017 digithusiast
31/12/2017 Raja_MBZ
01/01/2018 elg
02/01/2018 wachtwoord
03/01/2018 JimboToronto
04/01/2018 d_eddie  
05/01/2018 BTCMILLIONAIRE
06/01/2018 HanvanBitcoin
07/01/2018 ghandi
08/01/2018 savetherainforrest
09/01/2018 explorer
10/01/2018 bicoinpsycho
11/01/2018 Bitcoinaire
12/01/2018 speedwheel
13/01/2018 undeadbitcoiner
14/01/2018 northypole
15/01/2018 ivomm
16/01/2018 maca068
17/01/2018 bitcoinvest
18/01/2018 last of the v8s
19/01/2018 mfort312
20/01/2018 1982dre
21/01/2018 flamast2
22/01/2018 RealMachasm
23/01/2018 willope
24/01/2018 kartala
25/01/2018 orpington
26/01/2018 rolling
27/01/2018 LFC_bitcoin
28/01/2018 jojo69
29/01/2018 CristiTCM
30/01/2018 rayX12
31/01/2018 realsteelboy
01/02/2018 twocorn
02/02/2018 mancroofer
03/02/2018 True Myth
04/02/2018 poolminor
05/02/2018 itod
06/02/2018 scheptan
07/02/2018 vapourminer
08/02/2018 alexeft
09/02/2018 siera
10/02/2018 AlcoHoDL
11/02/2018 Dunkelheit667
12/02/2018 yonton
13/02/2018 Wekkel
14/02/2018 Thekool1s
15/02/2018 starmman
16/02/2018 Globb0
17/02/2018 leveldkrypto
18/02/2018 olesh
19/02/2018 BitCoinBurger
20/02/2018 Paashaas
21/02/2018 flynn
22/02/2018 icygreen
23/02/2018 erisdiscordia
24/02/2018 phil_s
25/02/2018 sirazimuth
26/02/2018 Arriemoller
27/02/2018 yonton
28/02/2018 Muttley
01/03/2018 bones261
02/03/2018 heater
03/03/2018 soullyG
04/03/2018 InvoKing
05/03/2018 Notme
06/03/2018 sa_94
07/03/2018 NUFCrichard
08/03/2018 Imbatman
09/03/2018 Roombot
10/03/2018 STT
11/03/2018 badream
13/03/2018 erre
14/03/2018 julian071
15/03/2018 podyx
17/03/2018 fragout
18/03/2018 fabiorem
21/03/2018 dakustaking76
23/03/2018 nikauforest
31/03/2018 vroom
01/04/2018 somac.
02/04/2018 kurious
04/04/2018 fluidjax
05/04/2018 bitcoinbunny
08/04/2018 tyler1890
10/04/2018 ludwigvon
11/04/2018 hairymaclairy
16/04/2018 practicaldreamer
18/04/2018 free-bit.co.in
27/04/2018 drbrockoin
01/05/2018 sprinkles
02/06/2018 oblox
07/07/2018 IntroVert
03/08/2018 toxic2040
28/08/2018 bitserve
15/10/2018 Yefi
05/11/2018 mikenz
31/12/2018 melman2002
01/01/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
12/02/2019 FractalUniverse
21/04/2019 gentlemand
20/02/2020 romneymoney
18/12/2021 luckygenough56

UPDATE     AND GOOD LUCK

WHY SO MANY OFF YOU THINKING PRICE WILL BE ONDER 8K END THIS MONTHY??  WHILE SO MANY OFF YOU GUESS ALL THE CLOSEST POSSIBLE  DATES WHEN THIS LIST CAME OUT

[jojo69]

Olive Branch   

die Turk

[vroom]

at least the bitcoin market dominance is increasing right now.

At least there's that.

Oh. 34.9%? Is that good?

it was at 33% a few days ago and incredible 34.8% yesterday

[jojo69]

BCH/BTC making a new low on GDAX