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Question: What happens first:
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26404364 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
thrax
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January 19, 2018, 10:28:35 PM

You cant price in something that is still uncertain. Plus the effect of an actual exchange failure could be much different and more profound than could possibly be anticipated or traded. All the traders would still be trapped there now artificially holding up the price. Remember gox?

so whats the solution, because if there was another GOX, then all crypto will take a massive hit.   cash out everything to fiat and forget the whole thing?

Didn't Gox like have something like 80% plus of the volume? It was before my time, so I am not sure. Guess you could wait until the shit hits the fan and make an exit soon after. Then buy back cheaper after a year.

Either that or you could put a massive short on at a reputable exchange (if you can find one).
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January 19, 2018, 10:30:48 PM

Gox had 80% volume before mid 2013.  When it went down in 2014 it only had 33% of the volume or less after the rally driven by China and the growth of bitstamp and bitfinex,
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January 19, 2018, 10:33:41 PM

You cant price in something that is still uncertain. Plus the effect of an actual exchange failure could be much different and more profound than could possibly be anticipated or traded. All the traders would still be trapped there now artificially holding up the price. Remember gox?

so whats the solution, because if there was another GOX, then all crypto will take a massive hit.   cash out everything to fiat and forget the whole thing?
Well in 2014 i went 75% bank and 25% cold storage, completely ignored the market for 2 years, and then in 2016 I came back. I never reccomend full fiat and it's easier for all your fiat to stolen than it is for bitcoin to lose all of its value.

Be nice if something like bullionvalut accepted bitcoin.
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January 19, 2018, 10:35:15 PM

You cant price in something that is still uncertain. Plus the effect of an actual exchange failure could be much different and more profound than could possibly be anticipated or traded. All the traders would still be trapped there now artificially holding up the price. Remember gox?

so whats the solution, because if there was another GOX, then all crypto will take a massive hit.   cash out everything to fiat and forget the whole thing?

Didn't Gox like have something like 80% plus of the volume? It was before my time, so I am not sure. Guess you could wait until the shit hits the fan and make an exit soon after. Then buy back cheaper after a year.

Either that or you could put a massive short on at a reputable exchange (if you can find one).

but short it against what ?  bitfinex and poloniex use tether. 
conspirosphere.tk
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January 19, 2018, 10:41:14 PM

Be nice if something like bullionvalut accepted bitcoin.

There is Vaultoro. I like it.
bones261
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January 19, 2018, 10:45:51 PM
Last edit: January 19, 2018, 11:12:33 PM by bones261

You cant price in something that is still uncertain. Plus the effect of an actual exchange failure could be much different and more profound than could possibly be anticipated or traded. All the traders would still be trapped there now artificially holding up the price. Remember gox?

so whats the solution, because if there was another GOX, then all crypto will take a massive hit.   cash out everything to fiat and forget the whole thing?

Didn't Gox like have something like 80% plus of the volume? It was before my time, so I am not sure. Guess you could wait until the shit hits the fan and make an exit soon after. Then buy back cheaper after a year.

Either that or you could put a massive short on at a reputable exchange (if you can find one).

but short it against what ?  bitfinex and poloniex use tether.  

Go 100x at Bitmex.  Cheesy Just don't get REKT. You will need to use VPN and lie about your information if US citizen. (I personally have never tried to register, but I think their verification process is rather light.)

You could also try the CBOE and CME if you have fiat. They don't really trade BTC, just are speculating on the price of BTC on certain dates.
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January 19, 2018, 10:46:59 PM

Even if Bitcoin never managed to become an efficient tool for remittance and retail

It already is efficient and successful as a remittance tool.


it will still remain valuable and keep growing for at least as long as no other crypto replaces it as the default base pair in trading alts.

That is a pretty pathetic description of "a significant" bitcoin use case.




This also means that it'll grow at least proportionally to the overall crypto market for the time being.

You seem to be lacking in imagination... no?    Roll Eyes


Also, the window of opportunity that jojo noted is a very real threat to Bitcoin's position at the very top. Competition is fierce and the market moves fast. All it takes is a superior coin and the right marketing/hype. Granted that's very difficult to pull off (as it would require resources well beyond what ICOs raise), but it's not something that is unthinkable.

Oh my!!!!!  Sounds scary.    Shocked

Our anthropomorphized bitcoin should be shaking in its proverbial boots, no?
1. Not for smaller transfers, no.

2. and 3. Context. I've isolated the worst case use case as an example, which in reality is just one part of the equation. A part that has sufficient potential to justify valuations in the trillions.

4. Extremely unlikely doesn't mean impossible. I'm incredibly bullish on Bitcoin, but that doesn't mean that it's a sure shot.

I just find your whole framework irritating to the extent it seems to devolve into prescriptive rather than descriptive, and seems to convolute the two, too.
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January 19, 2018, 10:48:18 PM

I got an email from Bitfinex saying something to the effect of that if I try to trade there then they'll take my money and call the police so I wouldn't even bother with thinking of  trading on their dodgy platform with tethers where most are probably going to lose thier money anyway after they are goxxed at any moment.
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January 19, 2018, 10:51:11 PM


So what?

You are coming off with some BIG blocker talking points and trying to suggest that bitcoin has value only if it can be used for retail right now?

I said nothing of the sort

You said that bitcoin is not a good fit for retail at this time, and you suggested that there is some kind of urgency to fix bitcoin or to lose and opportunity and bitcoin was NOT doing what it should be doing...blah blah blah..

In other words... good enough for me to conclude that either you have been BIG BLOCKER brainwashed or you are one of those nutjobs...  Tongue Tongue


OK Cathy Newman...whatever you say
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January 19, 2018, 10:54:16 PM

Verified account @cathynewman
Jan 17

Always grateful for advice from @DouglasKMurray but I won’t be suing or taking out a super-injunction. I thoroughly enjoyed my bout with @jordanbpeterson as did 100s of 1000s of our viewers. Viva feminism, viva free speech. Stay tuned Douglas.


-she's been getting hella abuse and threats etc
BTCMILLIONAIRE
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January 19, 2018, 11:06:08 PM

Even if Bitcoin never managed to become an efficient tool for remittance and retail

It already is efficient and successful as a remittance tool.


it will still remain valuable and keep growing for at least as long as no other crypto replaces it as the default base pair in trading alts.

That is a pretty pathetic description of "a significant" bitcoin use case.




This also means that it'll grow at least proportionally to the overall crypto market for the time being.

You seem to be lacking in imagination... no?    Roll Eyes


Also, the window of opportunity that jojo noted is a very real threat to Bitcoin's position at the very top. Competition is fierce and the market moves fast. All it takes is a superior coin and the right marketing/hype. Granted that's very difficult to pull off (as it would require resources well beyond what ICOs raise), but it's not something that is unthinkable.

Oh my!!!!!  Sounds scary.    Shocked

Our anthropomorphized bitcoin should be shaking in its proverbial boots, no?
1. Not for smaller transfers, no.

2. and 3. Context. I've isolated the worst case use case as an example, which in reality is just one part of the equation. A part that has sufficient potential to justify valuations in the trillions.

4. Extremely unlikely doesn't mean impossible. I'm incredibly bullish on Bitcoin, but that doesn't mean that it's a sure shot.

I just find your whole framework irritating to the extent it seems to devolve into prescriptive rather than descriptive, and seems to convolute the two, too.
I guess conditionals aren't your thing, eh.
FractalUniverse
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January 19, 2018, 11:16:34 PM

I got an email from Bitfinex saying something to the effect of that if I try to trade there then they'll take my money and call the police so I wouldn't even bother with thinking of  trading on their dodgy platform with tethers where most are probably going to lose thier money anyway after they are goxxed at any moment.
I've been trading there since December 2013, and im not scared.. yet  Grin
try harder
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January 19, 2018, 11:26:14 PM

All it takes for Tether to become completely worthless is one guy decides to seize the account for TetherBank which has been illegally printing a dollar pegged currency
jonoiv
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January 19, 2018, 11:31:48 PM



Go 100x at Bitmex.  Cheesy Just don't get REKT. You will need to use VPN and lie about your information if US citizen. (I personally have never tried to register, but I think their verification process is rather light.)

You could also try the CBOE and CME if you have fiat. They don't really trade BTC, just are speculating on the price of BTC on certain dates.

thanks!  never knew 100x leverage existed.  of now to get REKT  Cheesy


in terms of tether! the other alternative is NuBits,  they only issue new NuBits based on shareholder votes, of NuShares as far as i know!  

it's not trouble free but the dev team are 100% transparent and working hard to solve issues they have with the system / model.  The peg to USD isn't as smooth as tether (as their history shows), but personally looking at the past, i trust these guys, they have been around for a long time..  


https://discuss.nubits.com/


https://discuss.nubits.com/t/nushare-holders-shortage-of-us-nubits/5674

bones261
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January 19, 2018, 11:33:35 PM

All it takes for Tether to become completely worthless is one guy decides to seize the account at TetherBank

Do they even really have bank accounts? I'm really confused on how the Bitfinex/Tether thing even works. Don't understand why Tethers are never destroyed. Aren't there some days when the fiat withdrawals at Bitfinex exceeds the deposits? Very perplexing. Surely people haven't been depositing $100 million per day this week at Finex, with the recent correction. There can't be that many bargain hunters. Especially when none of their customers are supposed to be from the US. would it be a pain to deposit USD into Bitfinex if I were from Norway or Australia? I'm clueless.
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January 19, 2018, 11:34:34 PM

I just received this from kraken:
Kraken
Hi ....,

Did you notice the gift in your account? Your balance has been credited with lumens (XLM), the currency of the Stellar network. The credit was done on January 15 and shows in your account ledger as a “transfer.”


..............

Well, this amount kinda compensates the losses because of the exchange errors in the last months. Thank you for the gesture and cheers!!!  Grin
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January 19, 2018, 11:35:21 PM

All it takes for Tether to become completely worthless is one guy decides to seize the account at TetherBank

Do they even really have bank accounts? I'm really confused on how the Bitfinex/Tether thing even works. Don't understand why Tethers are never destroyed. Aren't there some days when the fiat withdrawals at Bitfinex exceeds the deposits? Very perplexing. Surely people haven't been depositing $100 million per day this week at Finex, with the recent correction. There can't be that many bargain hunters. Especially when none of their customers are supposed to be from the US. Is it a pain to deposit USD into Bitfinex if I am from Norway? I'm clueless.
It's not just bitfinex anymore that uses tether. There is poloniex, bittrex, and maybe more. I have a polo account and am all bitcoin in it, unless I see a quick trade.
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January 19, 2018, 11:39:53 PM

All it takes for Tether to become completely worthless is one guy decides to seize the account for TetherBank which has been illegally printing a dollar pegged currency

Assuming for the moment Tether is a fractional reserve currency on a 10:1 scale it would still represent hundreds millions of dollars on deposit.  

Bitfinex is clearly going out of its way to avoid US citizens even if it has not caught them all.  So we need to ask what would the catalyst be for seizure of the Tether account.  I know people love to make a big fuss about Tether’s conditions saying it is not redeemable for USD but Tether has to include that so they don’t get smashed by the US authorities.  If they said it was redeemable, they would be strung up from the ceiling.

So if the US authorities aren’t going to come after Tether, why would an account worth at least hundreds of millions of US dollars be seized?  The bank isn’t going to kill the goose that lays the golden egg.  So what is the Black Swan trigger?  

And we don’t actually know Tether is a fractional reserve.  It probably is - the lack of a proper audit is damming.  But it operates as a reserve currency.  And reserve currencies get away with all sorts of bullshit as demonstrated by the excesses of the US dollar.  

So while Tether popping would be an unimaginable firestorm for crypto, there is good reason to think it won’t pop anytime soon because there is no effective trigger.  
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January 19, 2018, 11:40:46 PM

All it takes for Tether to become completely worthless is one guy decides to seize the account at TetherBank

Do they even really have bank accounts? I'm really confused on how the Bitfinex/Tether thing even works. Don't understand why Tethers are never destroyed. Aren't there some days when the fiat withdrawals at Bitfinex exceeds the deposits? Very perplexing. Surely people haven't been depositing $100 million per day this week at Finex, with the recent correction. There can't be that many bargain hunters. Especially when none of their customers are supposed to be from the US. Is it a pain to deposit USD into Bitfinex if I am from Norway? I'm clueless.
It's not just bitfinex anymore that uses tether. There is poloniex, bittrex, and maybe more. I have a polo account and am all bitcoin in it, unless I see a quick trade.

Yes, but you cannot deposit fiat into Polo or Bittrex that I am aware of. Could be mistaken. So the Tethers that they have there originated from a different source. I don't think the $100 Million tethers being created daily are going to any other exchange except Bitfinex. Kraken also uses Tethers and lets you deposit fiat. However, I don't think the freshly minted Tethers are going their either.
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January 19, 2018, 11:42:36 PM

All I'm saying is there are single points of failure and it is much easier for Tether to become worthless than it is for bitcoin which is backed by a global economy and the laws of thermodynamics or whatever.
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