Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[realr0ach]

Please do ignore if your technical skills are around 0 and you're unable to put forth any factual argument at all besides "wahh I'm a child who wants a get rich quick scheme, don't say anything bad about bitcoin or demonstrate how metals are infinitely more sound".  Too many fucking scamming children and conmen in craptocurrency.

[silverfuture]

It's gotten quite friendly in here all of a sudden. 

Glorious walls of volatility behold!

[TERA2]

You know whenever I say something quasi-bullish that it's finally going to drop.

[realr0ach]

You know whenever I say something quasi-bullish that it's finally going to drop.

It was stupidly predictable what was going to happen:

Why am I getting ads with retarded looking, giant hook-nosed Jews telling me to buy bitcoin AT THE TOP?

And what happens next:

Look, when the whales begin to believe that the bull market has ended, it's going to go below $5k. Their going to want to take profit.

That's what we call the Goldman Suplex.  When they bomb it down to the 50% retracement and make people believe they're getting a good deal so they all take longs, while the people sitting on 200,000 coins that were the only thing propping up the market are all dumping on the longs and it implodes down to the 38% retracement or lower wiping out everyone.

[oblox]

...but seriously, why would I use BCH over LTC? Because I don't want a coin with an option to use segwit? I'm trying to get the selling point of using BCH over something that already is established.

Since windjc asked me this exact question last week, I'll quote my response to him:

"I view money as a ledger.  Or "money as memory," as per the work of Kocherlakota. From this viewpoint, it is the information encoded in the ledger about who owns which coins that is of value.  The actual mechanism used to update that ledger is just a technical decision -- which is the best paper to write on?  Which is the best pen?

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Bitcoin Core (BTC) share the same ledger up until August 1.  At this point, the "ledger updating mechanisms" diverged (BCH allowed more information about the state of the ledger to be updated every ten minutes to facilitate growth).

Switching to LTC would be like ripping up the "ledger of money" because the pen we were using to update it ran out of ink.  Instead, just get a better pen and keep updating the same ledger."

If the whole premise is toward the cash part, basically, fast, digital money, why does the length of the ledger have anything to do with anything. When I go to a store and buy something with cash, I don't care about the history or who owned it prior to me spending it. I just want something that the merchant will take and be on my way as quickly as possible. Yes, transactional history is a major selling point of the blockchain (to be able to verify ownership and prevent double spends) but I fail to see why there is more value in a blockchain that is 2 years older. If you want fast cash, you use an alt with fast block confirms and low fees. BCH was created to try to solve a problem that it doesn't actual solve... you're not magically going to scale with 8MB blocks, fees aren't as cheap as other alts, and blocktimes are still 10 minutes (an on average target that was hardly followed given prior diff adjustments).

[RoomBot]

I suspect we'll see new ATHs for bitcoin in 2018.  

FINALLY someone looking forward here....

ATH!  ATH!

So....this week --  today and tomorrow -- MAJOR VOLATILITY.

Charlie Lee warned us.  Also someone on this thread kept warning about Jan. 18, remember? What was that about?

So the next few days, people, fasten your seat belts.

Imma buy the 2018 bottom this week.  

Then hope for the ATH Contest in March. 

[Karartma1]

Now I get it. Secret messages! Too much Rubicon for me https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rubicon_(TV_series)

1. Jamie called bitcoin a fraud: that was the first sign to pump it hard
2. Jamie said bitcoin is not a fraud in the end. Dump to profit.

Holy shit

[Heater]

stuff about bcash

Hi Peter!

[RoomBot]

Now I get it. Secret messages! Too much Rubicon for me https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rubicon_(TV_series)

1. Jamie called bitcoin a fraud: that was the first sign to pump it hard
2. Jamie said bitcoin is not a fraud in the end. Dump to profit.

Holy shit

That's rich.

Either way Jamie Dimon looks like is an @$$.

[TERA2]

Why am I getting ads with retarded looking, giant hook-nosed Jews telling me to buy bitcoin AT THE TOP?

This is one thing I'll agree with roach on is how ridiculous all these ads are. Like what did THIS guy ever have to do with crypto? Does he even know what a block is? And what does the matrix have to do with this? Are we being harvested by evil machines? If you were to see what bitcoin was doing it wouldn't be anything cool like the matrix, just a bunch of stupid SHA256 hashes over and over.

I did write an investor presentation about bitcoin back when it was $400 using a question mark with a bitcoin like that though.

[erre]

The dead cat is not bouncing at all

[TheRealProphet]

Bet you 0.1 BTC we don't go below $10,900 on BitFinex for the rest of January.

Can I have your 0.1 BTC?

[windjc]

The dead cat is not bouncing at all

yeah, this bounce is not even a bounce. its pathetic. looks like we need more pain.

[windjc]

$18k -> $3k (6x) wouldn't be unprecedented.  In 2011, we fell from $30 -> $2 (15x), in early 2013 from $250 -> $50 (5x), and in late 2013 from $1200 -> $200 (6x).  

If we get away with a low of $9k (2x) I'd hardly even call that a crash!  

Here are projected lows compared to historical crashes:

2x: $9,000
3x: $6,000
4x: $4,500
5x (early 2013): $3,600
6x (late 2013): $3,000
10x: $1,800
15x (2011): $1,200

Bitcoin is less volatile now. Unless the bull market has ended - which I do not think it has - most of these other crash comparisons are not really valid.

Right now this is a healthy correction - one many people called - that will lead to another bullish year in 2018 with BTC prices well above $50k. BCH might die however

Previous corrections would go into alts but it’s all dropping now.  It won’t get to low Ks overnight but 20k could be a top.  It’s x10 what it costs in electricity per BTC and most past tops were never 20x of previous ATHs.

Look at the log charts. This rise to 20k was not even FOMO yet.

[TERA2]

Look at this USDA grade A bull trap.

[windjc]

Look at this USDA grade A bull trap.

Thats a lame bull trap. A real bull trap would be preceded by a HH on some decent vol.

[wayna]

You guys do not realize BTC rised from about 7000 to 20k EUR in about 3 months (plus all the altcoins rollercoasters).

So, at the end of the year everybody wanted BTC or Alts. Then investors, speculators, bulls or whatever wanted to make profit as well and we had a pretty consistent dump, following a kind of steady dump, now the rollercoaster starts again!

Informed people know this market is crazy and people are starting to approach it, if they let the price rise beyond 20k no one will invest in it, apart of BIG investors. Pragmatically, this is the entry point for 2018 investors, but jerks won't understand.

Again, they both want common people entering the market and shaking their hands at the wrong time.

Don't panic 

[El duderino_]

Just woke up what Will bring bitcoin and the cryptomarket today
So far So good with bcc Going out of the picture now only need to see bch Going down massivly

And for me it ain’t No problem to see BTC Going back to big dominance and catching ATH’s

(Don’t understand who keeps selling bottoms it isn’t me )

[TERA2]

You may also want to consider uncle Sam's role in a new year turn around after a rally.

[Peter R]

...but seriously, why would I use BCH over LTC? Because I don't want a coin with an option to use segwit? I'm trying to get the selling point of using BCH over something that already is established.

Since windjc asked me this exact question last week, I'll quote my response to him:

"I view money as a ledger.  Or "money as memory," as per the work of Kocherlakota. From this viewpoint, it is the information encoded in the ledger about who owns which coins that is of value.  The actual mechanism used to update that ledger is just a technical decision -- which is the best paper to write on?  Which is the best pen?

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Bitcoin Core (BTC) share the same ledger up until August 1.  At this point, the "ledger updating mechanisms" diverged (BCH allowed more information about the state of the ledger to be updated every ten minutes to facilitate growth).

Switching to LTC would be like ripping up the "ledger of money" because the pen we were using to update it ran out of ink.  Instead, just get a better pen and keep updating the same ledger."

If the whole premise is toward the cash part, basically, fast, digital money, why does the length of the ledger have anything to do with anything. When I go to a store and buy something with cash, I don't care about the history or who owned it prior to me spending it. I just want something that the merchant will take and be on my way as quickly as possible. Yes, transactional history is a major selling point of the blockchain (to be able to verify ownership and prevent double spends) but I fail to see why there is more value in a blockchain that is 2 years older. If you want fast cash, you use an alt with fast block confirms and low fees. BCH was created to try to solve a problem that it doesn't actual solve... you're not magically going to scale with 8MB blocks, fees aren't as cheap as other alts, and blocktimes are still 10 minutes (an on average target that was hardly followed given prior diff adjustments).

Bitcoin was designed to be a "peer-to-peer electronic cash system."  When I read the white paper, I envisioned a better form of money for mankind, as we transition into the information age.  BTC has given up on that vision in favor of a sort of "digital gold" designed to be held and not spent.  That is not something I'm interested in.  BCH is a return to the original vision for Bitcoin.

To me, for money to be truly better, it also needs to be easy and inexpensive to use (i.e., low fees and reliable confirmations -- what you call the "cash part") but that certainly isn't the _only_ requirement of better money.  So really, your argument reads mostly as a straw-man because your starting point, that "the whole premise [of BCH] is toward the cash part," was false.  

...you're not magically going to scale with 8MB blocks...

We're going to scale to gigabyte blocks and beyond. But it's not magic; it's really just routine engineering and bottleneck removal.  We're well on our way: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SJm2ep3X_M

...fees aren't as cheap as other alts...

I'm not sure how the fee market will evolve (fees will be set by supply and demand in a free market) but I find it comforting that many small blockers say "BCH will fail because fees will fall too low and the blockchain will fill up with spam" while other small blockers say "BCH will fail at achieving it's goals of low fees because fees will go through the roof once transaction volume picks up."