Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Ibian]

You guys must be really bored since your engaging our resident town fool. I've been guilty of that myself from time to time.

Don't feed the troll.

Was just coming here to pontificate on that. Cause I'm, like, REALLY bored. Anyone else? And also wtf? A lot of us have our net value fluctuate by more almost daily than most people make in a year, and the only reaction is... boredom?

[Ibian]

that's exactly how i present crypto to people, as a lottery with benefits. Nothing more, nothing retardly idealistic, just plain stupid speculation.

Except we know it's far more than that. Why not be honest?

[lightfoot]

Because beliefs affect identity but its at a different logical level. So cant change the belief because "then who am I anymore?"

Oh when you fiddle with the underlying microcode in someone's brain that "who I am anymore" is an entry point for a whole new personality operating system. One you get to control, and one that can have all sorts of subtle back-doors for future ideas to be planted.....

Very complicated very quickly. For extra-fun points write a meme that scans for certain backdoors installed in people, then come up with ways to exploit those.......

[Enjel]

that's exactly how i present crypto to people, as a lottery with benefits. Nothing more, nothing retardly idealistic, just plain stupid speculation.

But it's a lot more promising than those rigged traditional lotteries, that's for sure.

[luckygenough56]

that's exactly how i present crypto to people, as a lottery with benefits. Nothing more, nothing retardly idealistic, just plain stupid speculation.

But it's a lot more promising than those rigged traditional lotteries, that's for sure.

Hence the benefits. Paint jobs are indeed very predictable at times.

that's exactly how i present crypto to people, as a lottery with benefits. Nothing more, nothing retardly idealistic, just plain stupid speculation.

Except we know it's far more than that. Why not be honest?

Ok you got me. It's a greater fool and whale riding contest.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

You guys must be really bored since your engaging our resident town fool. I've been guilty of that myself from time to time.

Don't feed the troll.

Was just coming here to pontificate on that. Cause I'm, like, REALLY bored. Anyone else? And also wtf? A lot of us have our net value fluctuate by more almost daily than most people make in a year, and the only reaction is... boredom?

It's interesting how quickly those fluctuations turned irrelevant. Makes me question how people get emotional when trading. Guess having a plan takes off the edge?

[itod]

Maxwell resigned from Blockstream in November:
https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2018-January/015586.html

In order to spend more time working independently on deep protocol
work, especially new cryptographic privacy and security technology for
Bitcoin, I resigned from Blockstream last November. It took until the
end of December to wind down my involvement there.

Here's the whole post, bullish IMHO:

Gregory Maxwell greg at xiph.org
Fri Jan 19 02:59:17 UTC 2018
Previous message: [bitcoin-dev] Suggestion to remove word from BIP39 English   wordlist
Messages sorted by: [ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ]

Not really all that on-topic, but since it was suggested to me that
this would be an efficient venue to reach others who might care to
know:

In order to spend more time working independently on deep protocol
work, especially new cryptographic privacy and security technology for
Bitcoin, I resigned from Blockstream last November. It took until the
end of December to wind down my involvement there.

Back when we founded the company I was concerned that there was
significant underinvestment in Bitcoin technology: Bitcoin had a
healthy technical community just as it does today, but lacked the kind
of industry support that projects like Linux have. Without sustained
financial support, some kinds of bigger projects seemed really hard to
pull off with developers needing to share time between non-bitcoin
employment, their families, and their other interests. For the most
part, back then early Bitcoin companies weren't investing in public
technology, at least not effectively.

We hoped that Blockstream could help act as an anchor of support for
technology development, and in doing so help grow the community. I
think that has been a big success. The Bitcoin industry has matured a
lot and today Bitcoin Core gets significant regular contributions from
many organizations (including Chaincode, DCI, Blockstream, Coinbase,
Bitmain, Blockchain, and probably others that I am forgetting or not
even aware of) and a volunteer community much larger and more active
than it has ever been before.  From what I've been told Blockstream
plans to continue to contribute to awesome technology in Bitcoin--as
demonstrated by their Lightning webstore this week--but if they
didn't, that wouldn't be a problem for Bitcoin.

So for me this means that I can go back to working on the things I
find most exciting ... without the overhead of managing staff or
dealing with the many non-Bitcoin blockchain applications which are
important to Blockstream's business. The maturing Bitcoin industry
means I don't need to worry that Bitcoin development could be left
with inadequate financial support.

I'm very excited about all the new and interesting technology that is
coming to production--Bulletproofs / CT, signature aggregation,
improved propagation and synchronization--as well as the continuing
maturation of Bitcoin as a viable subject matter for academic
researchers. I'll be spending more time helping with these and other
things, and will no longer have insight into Blockstream's activities
or a Blockstream email address (I can continue to be reached at my
xiph.org and gmail email addresses as I've used here in the past), but
otherwise this shouldn't change anything for anyone here.


Cheers,

[Torque]

Was just coming here to pontificate on that. Cause I'm, like, REALLY bored. Anyone else? And also wtf? A lot of us have our net value fluctuate by more almost daily than most people make in a year, and the only reaction is... boredom?

I came to the conclusion a while back that you have to feel that way to become truly wealthy in this life. You have to become comfortable with that feeling. It's what the rich must feel every single day. The poor and the middle class can't handle that kind of volatility, that much fluctuation in their paper wealth. So they cash out at the first sign of a small profit, or the first sign of a dip. Which is exactly what the establishment want them to do.

[starmman]

Was just coming here to pontificate on that. Cause I'm, like, REALLY bored. Anyone else? And also wtf? A lot of us have our net value fluctuate by more almost daily than most people make in a year, and the only reaction is... boredom?

I came to the conclusion a while back that you have to feel that way to become truly wealthy in this life. You have to become comfortable with that feeling. It's what the rich must feel every single day. The poor and the middle class can't handle that kind of volatility, that much fluctuation in their paper wealth. So they cash out at the first sign of a small profit, or the first sign of a dip. Which is exactly what the establishment want them to do.

Haha, I see what you mean - a lot of my friends wont touch bitcoin and are amazed at the amount you can make or lose in a day - somebody advised me the other day to sell the lot and start again...

[noize_1234]

This 12k$ is one though cookie

[JayJuanGee]

Hey guys, I started 2016 with almost nothing, just a little more than 2 digits. It went to single digits by end of 2016 or beginning of 2017. By middle of 2017 it went to double digits again. And bitcoin's price was rallying too. I took a month long vacation during summer, then went back to see my hodlings kinda doubled (in fiat value) but remained the same in bitcoin.

As Torque implied, I was probably one of those kids in 2012 who bought some bitcoins worth $1500, waited for it to double to $3000, then cashed out to buy toys or whatever. I repeated that performance in 2013 to 2014 with Litecoin (from $20 to $40, worth about another $1000).

The coulda shoulda woulda ... the 20/20 hindsight, we all should have just bought as soon as we discovered bitcoin and hodl'ed until either 2014 or 2017 (take your pic, you either did 1000% or 10000%)

Some of us did. A lot of us did not. Some got "roached" and I can clearly see the bitterness as I continue to not ignore him and read his posts (and again, they're all still wrong, he just loves his dead pyramid ,... pyramids do function as tombs for god-kings, but they're dead.)

Anyway, I missed the last 30 or 50 pages recently, was busy dabbling in alts again and watching my almost triple digits remain double digits ... but I didn't actually trade anything, I was just watching. A few of you did take me up on my offer, but the rest of your remain apathetic towards alts in general, vehemently violent against a few in particular.

While we don't understand some of them, it is interesting to note that their biggest supporters in this thread (and outside this thread) do have or revealed to have or had at least a thousand coins of BTC as well as BCH, so there is something to learn from them.

So, while I can't just yet retire on $4 million, maybe if I hodl long enough while living off the rest of my other crypto "earnings" or hodlings, some of you guys will be obscenely rich beyond imagination and I'll be content or happy with whatever I get, probably close to double digit millions, hopefully.

Still double digits BTC here ...

I suppose we can assert that "it's all relative," and sometimes, there can be some sell too soon mistakes as you admit to; however, sometimes there can also be attempting to manage within your own means, which may limit how many coins you are able to accumulate - including considerations of ongoing cashflow that you are able to generate and how much you "need" for your living expenses.


Surely, upper double digits is better, but even mid- double digits, in the range of 50 coins, is decent, too, especially if you are geographically mobile.  If you are geographically mobile, you could live like a king for a good 20 years or more off of 50 coins-ish.

[Deeyoh]

Yep, someone definitely doesn't want it to go over 12k for some reason.  Guess, they don't care about selling at a higher price.. Just to keep it down bouncing around to buy more I suppose.  

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Hey guys, I started 2016 with almost nothing, just a little more than 2 digits. It went to single digits by end of 2016 or beginning of 2017. By middle of 2017 it went to double digits again. And bitcoin's price was rallying too. I took a month long vacation during summer, then went back to see my hodlings kinda doubled (in fiat value) but remained the same in bitcoin.

As Torque implied, I was probably one of those kids in 2012 who bought some bitcoins worth $1500, waited for it to double to $3000, then cashed out to buy toys or whatever. I repeated that performance in 2013 to 2014 with Litecoin (from $20 to $40, worth about another $1000).

The coulda shoulda woulda ... the 20/20 hindsight, we all should have just bought as soon as we discovered bitcoin and hodl'ed until either 2014 or 2017 (take your pic, you either did 1000% or 10000%)

Some of us did. A lot of us did not. Some got "roached" and I can clearly see the bitterness as I continue to not ignore him and read his posts (and again, they're all still wrong, he just loves his dead pyramid ,... pyramids do function as tombs for god-kings, but they're dead.)

Anyway, I missed the last 30 or 50 pages recently, was busy dabbling in alts again and watching my almost triple digits remain double digits ... but I didn't actually trade anything, I was just watching. A few of you did take me up on my offer, but the rest of your remain apathetic towards alts in general, vehemently violent against a few in particular.

While we don't understand some of them, it is interesting to note that their biggest supporters in this thread (and outside this thread) do have or revealed to have or had at least a thousand coins of BTC as well as BCH, so there is something to learn from them.

So, while I can't just yet retire on $4 million, maybe if I hodl long enough while living off the rest of my other crypto "earnings" or hodlings, some of you guys will be obscenely rich beyond imagination and I'll be content or happy with whatever I get, probably close to double digit millions, hopefully.

Still double digits BTC here ...

I consider the altcoin market as an easily accessible venture capital market, and I have significant positions in some of them.

The overwhelming majority is certainly trash and I wouldn't touch it with a pole, but I don't think that anybody can rationally explain away all of the altcoins.

I prefer staying out of "Bitcoin clones" and "next-gen Bitcoins" though (smallest positions for good measure) - mostly because there are no fundamentals to analyze; while investing in seeds that can realistically be achieved and sustained with predictable lower-end returns and potentials when thrown into a portfolio.
Granted that's a lot more work than just holding Bitcoins would be, but I also find it more interesting by virtue of keeping an eye on the entire beast that is blockchain and cryptocurrencies, which I do believe will become equities 2.0.
I would be quite surprised if traditional stock markets were still relevant a few decades from now, and the fact that common people at least have the access to VC is also quite big (which is something that crowdfunding platforms completely failed to accomplish due to their outrageous fees and crappy policies).

[noize_1234]

I'm trying to compare the hashrates, to get a better sense of bitcoin dominance. Instead of looking to the bitcoin dominance in the market cap which has it flaws.
https://pasteboard.co/H3ExUBq.png

I'm wondering do i need some kind of correction factor for the Ether Hashrate?

*
Data from:
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/hashrate-btc-eth-bch.html#log

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

I'm trying to compare the hashrates, to get a better sense of bitcoin dominance. Instead of looking to the bitcoin dominance in the market cap which has it flaws.
snip

I'm wondering do i need some kind of correction factor for the Ether Hashrate?

*
Data from:
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/hashrate-btc-eth-bch.html#log

Electricity used (for PoW coins) would be a better metric, since hashrate depends on the algorithm used. Bitcoin also has ASICs, while Ethereum only uses GPUs, hence creating a massive discrepancy in hashrate numbers.

By taking electricity as a measure you circumvent that and can more accurately assess how many resources go into each crypto.

The downside is that it doesn't take into account the hardware costs, which you would have to estimate and include in your calculations for a more accurate picture.

[Torque]

I consider the altcoin market as an easily accessible venture capital market, and I have significant positions in some of them.

The overwhelming majority is certainly trash and I wouldn't touch it with a pole, but I don't think that anybody can rationally explain away all of the altcoins.

I prefer staying out of "Bitcoin clones" and "next-gen Bitcoins" though (smallest positions for good measure) - mostly because there are no fundamentals to analyze; while investing in seeds that can realistically be achieved and sustained with predictable lower-end returns and potentials when thrown into a portfolio.
Granted that's a lot more work than just holding Bitcoins would be, but I also find it more interesting by virtue of keeping an eye on the entire beast that is blockchain and cryptocurrencies, which I do believe will become equities 2.0.
I would be quite surprised if traditional stock markets were still relevant a few decades from now, and the fact that common people at least have the access to VC is also quite big (which is something that crowdfunding platforms completely failed to accomplish due to their outrageous fees and crappy policies).

The problem I have with altcoins, is this:

Once Bitcoin established itself as a near-perfect digital gold 2.0 like store of value, as well as something that can be used online as a currency, then investing in anything else trying to do the same thing (i.e., an also ran) made zero logical sense.

If people want to gamble with also-rans that's fine. But there is a deep seated fallacy in comparing a fly-by-night project that all it has to show for itself is a single anonymous dev, an online token (which as been pre-mined and pre-allocated to hell), and a back-of-the-napkin scribbled future roadmap as even being in the same league as Bitcoin.

I also have a real issue with also-ran cryptos that claim to have solutions to problems that don't exist, or will never really exist. App-based tokens. History is literally littered with such IT projects that went nowhere and did nothing. Especially pay-to-play apps, that will compete with other apps that are free and do the same thing. That is beyond absurd.

You think that if an ICO company that had a Twitter-like app came out, but had a token that they made you buy in order to use it first (for "fuel" or some shit), that they could in any way compete with Twitter (a free app)? No. Fucking. Way.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

The problem I have with altcoins, is this:

Once Bitcoin established itself as a near-perfect digital gold 2.0 like store of value, as well as something that can be used online as a currency, then investing in anything else trying to do the same thing (i.e., an also ran) made zero logical sense.

If people want to gamble with also-rans that's fine. But there is a deep seated fallacy in comparing a fly-by-night project that all it has to show for itself is a single anonymous dev, an online token, and a back-of-the-napkin scribbled future roadmap as even being in the same league as Bitcoin.

I also have a real issue with also-ran cryptos that claim to have solutions to problems that don't exist, or will never really exist. App-based tokens. History is literally littered with such IT projects that go nowhere and do nothing. Especially pay-to-play apps, that will compete with other apps that are free and do the same thing. That is beyond absurd.

You think that if a company that had a Twitter-like app came out, but had a token that they made you buy in order to use it (for "fuel"), that they could in any way compete with Twitter (a free app)? No. Fucking. Way.

That's exactly how I see it, which is why I don't buy and hold any significant quantities of currency type coins. I'm more interested in startups that are using the blockchain as a means of gaining the necessary liquidity for them to actually start off.

The social media type tokens that you mentioned are also a prime example of what doesn't realistically have a future. It could just work out (because people are pretty weird creatures), but there's no compelling reason to start using a platform that requires you to throw money at it in any form when there are free and ad-run solutions, however shady they may be (which most people don't care about due to ease of access).

Don't get me wrong, it takes a damn lot of digging and perhaps even a bit of luck to identify something that isn't just a bunch of out-of-college kids or other dweebs trying to capitalize on the most recent hype without having the required ideas, skills or perserverence to create something successful. But as with every market, there are always a few gems to be found. Granted of the ones with real potential many will never reach their potential or just outright fail, but that's where diversification comes into play.

With all this said, I am 100% convinced that there will be a flood of tears at some point in crypto history, where a lot of people will lose pretty much everything. But that's not something that is unique to altcoins and has happened with every hype before.

[itod]

The problem I have with altcoins, is this:

Once Bitcoin established itself as a near-perfect digital gold 2.0 like store of value, as well as something that can be used online as a currency, then investing in anything else trying to do the same thing (i.e., an also ran) made zero logical sense.

If people want to gamble with also-rans that's fine. But there is a deep seated fallacy in comparing a fly-by-night project that all it has to show for itself is a single anonymous dev, an online token, and a back-of-the-napkin scribbled future roadmap as even being in the same league as Bitcoin.

I also have a real issue with also-ran cryptos that claim to have solutions to problems that don't exist, or will never really exist. App-based tokens. History is literally littered with such IT projects that go nowhere and do nothing. Especially pay-to-play apps, that will compete with other apps that are free and do the same thing. That is beyond absurd.

You are 100% right with everything, except the conclusion. The LN establishment as altcoin killer will not happen overnight, it's a process that will have markings on the wall as the journey unfolds. There will be plenty of time for anyone reasonable to exit the altcoins in time. Meanwhile, they are the vehicle to increase your BTC stash, which is in essence what Dabs said. I absolutely don't see anything wrong with it.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

The problem I have with altcoins, is this:

Once Bitcoin established itself as a near-perfect digital gold 2.0 like store of value, as well as something that can be used online as a currency, then investing in anything else trying to do the same thing (i.e., an also ran) made zero logical sense.

If people want to gamble with also-rans that's fine. But there is a deep seated fallacy in comparing a fly-by-night project that all it has to show for itself is a single anonymous dev, an online token, and a back-of-the-napkin scribbled future roadmap as even being in the same league as Bitcoin.

I also have a real issue with also-ran cryptos that claim to have solutions to problems that don't exist, or will never really exist. App-based tokens. History is literally littered with such IT projects that go nowhere and do nothing. Especially pay-to-play apps, that will compete with other apps that are free and do the same thing. That is beyond absurd.

You are 100% right with everything, except the conclusion. The LN establishment as altcoin killer will not happen overnight, it's a process that will have markings on the wall as the journey unfolds. There will be plenty of time for anyone reasonable to exit the altcoins in time. Meanwhile, they are the vehicle to increase your BTC stash, which is in essence what Dabs said. I absolutely don't see anything wrong with it.

I see it more as Bitcoin = USD, alts = equity (of a new "world"). Don't really care about currency type alts, although I'm sure there will be a number of them even with LN. Just look at the formation of countries and traditional currencies, there's no compelling reason to believe that this won't be mirrored in crypto as well. But the very fact that currency type alts have zero fundamentals to base investment decisions on is reason enough for me to pretty much stay out of those and stick with equity type coins.

[Torque]

You are 100% right with everything, except the conclusion. The LN establishment as altcoin killer will not happen overnight, it's a process that will have markings on the wall as the journey unfolds. There will be plenty of time for anyone reasonable to exit the altcoins in time. Meanwhile, they are the vehicle to increase your BTC stash, which is in essence what Dabs said. I absolutely don't see anything wrong with it.

Except that the majority, like 90+%, won't increase their BTC stash with altcoin trading. They'll actually lose money, and would have just been better off buying bitcoin and holding it instead. The [altcoin]/btc ratio trailing downward on the majority of altcoins proves my point.