Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

When big banks, businesses and all the poor unbanked (cannot pay BTC on-chainfees - but BCH) ?

what are you talking about? the current bitcoin transaction fees are about $0.15.

edit: typos

Many of us doing on-chain bitcoin transactions in late 2017 until about January 2018, recall how the BTC transaction fees went skyrocketing up - actually, there were several times in 2017 in which BTC transaction fees went skyrocketing up.  Coupled with fees going up tended to be longer BTC transaction times.

Large fees and longer transaction times was a narrative that the BIG BLOCKER nutjobs wanted to push, and also the alt coin pumpers had some incentives to propagate such narrative to pump their shit by suggesting that BTC is broken or inadequate and that other Bitcoin 2.0 systems (aka alt coins) would be the solution for such problem.

The most reasonable inferences from the evidence remains that spam attacks were occurring on the BTC network to attempt to provide evidence for the made-up bullshit narrative, and even though it remains a bit unclear regarding the culprit of the spam attacks, largely it is attributed to folks like bitmain, Roger Ver and coinbase, even though there were likely some others that were contributing to acts and practices that added to the clogging up effects of the spam attack of the bitcoin network.

By the end of January or so, it became more apparent that the cost of the ongoing spam attack and even the actual ongoing effects of such spam attack were becoming greater than the benefits of keeping such spam attack going.  Yeah, there was a bit of a risky (but seemingly justified) move from bitcoin node to expedite the live activation of lightning network - which would then more quickly negate some of these projects attempt to maintain their claims about BTC's alleged high transaction fees and slow transaction times. 

So, yeah, ever since the end of January the spam attacks largely stopped and any further attempt to reinitiate such spam attacks have not been effective which brought BTC fees and transaction times way down into relatively low ranges, which can cause some concerns regarding whether if such low fees were to persist, then are there enough mining incentives built in... but that sustainability (and incentives) of low fees  scenario remains largely offset by relatively lucrative mining rewards that will continue to be decent for a few more halvenings.. so perhaps the fees could stay relatively low for 10 or 20 more years, but likely as BTC adoption increases, fees are likely to naturally go up, too... and yeah, it does seem to become more and more expensive to engage in bitcoin spam attacks, but likely those spam attack times are not behind us - even though they might have to be more strategically employed as compared to the 2017 to January 2018 period that they were employed for months at a time (December 2017 to January 2018 was about a two month long attack).

Meh, your narrative is just BTC cannot scale.

And any other try is an ATTACK.

Deal with it.

I am not saying that.  Since you have historically been a BIG blocker nuthead and a bcash pumper, you seem to be in denial of the power of bitcoin, and failing and refusing to acknowledge that there have been attacks on bitcoin that have been unsuccessful.  In other words, you are so much engaged in ongoing fucking delusionalism that you want to frame spam attacks as if they were organic growth, even when the actual facts do not support your delusional and wishful narrative.

Why don't you go and play around in your BIGblocker and bcash threads rather than bringing your fantasy descriptions to these big boy thread...?  In other words, you don't seem to be grown up enough (or willing to consider actual facts) to participate in this thread.

[1714321227]

1714321227

[1714321227]

1714321227

[kurious]

long era of 'laissez faire' rampant capitalism

This has to be a joke  . There is more government regulation and red tape today than there ever has been. Taxes on anyone who is actually productive are crippling while the unproductive are subsidized. The landscape is dominated by megalithic corporations because individuals and smaller firms lack the economy of scale to comply with the profoundly onerous burden of regulatory compliance. And from this you perceive laissez faire... How... just how...

Hey, Anon - we are one the same side and I know we share some interestsa dn you are a man who helps those when asked, so I don't want to disagree but I hold a different view.

So please indulge me and let me run an alternative take on this by you?

IMHO The little firms don't get an easy time in because the bigger corps are allowed to buy a free run from the politicians at walking over anyone and anything they like. The regulations are engineered to keep the old guard in power. That was my point. The big corps like it that way and the system let's them. And it's because they pay less taxes that everyone else has to pay more.

All the major corps have huge tax avoidance schemes, most of their profits are in tax havens while they destroy ordinary people's jobs and force them into welfsre while the people in the middle have to pay for. It doesn't sit well with me, that's all.  I don't want to pay more taxes, but the tax take is so reduced because the large corps and rich do not pay theirs - that I have to.

In the post war generation, not so long ago the average American could own their own home, run two cars, put their children through college - and do it on on one wage while mom stayed home and made apple pie. I am not saying that was perfect, but people could do ok and expect a good life and a pension - as well as hope their children could do better than they did.

So:  Is it really better now - and do you think 'more of the same' will help?

[TReano]

bitcoin weekly chart shows bullish sign , according to me before 1st week of july we will see uptrend in market . However cant say upto which level it will lasts bcoz it is not as strong as last year bull run . back to back 3rd dip of $6k have created more panic , need to break resistance soon .

never call the end of a trend.

Rule Nr. 2 of the divine trading bible.

[kurious]

It's a catch 22 kurious.

You create some structure to contain the beast and within a couple generations the barons you sought to rein in will have seized those very reins and turned the tools you created against you.

I am not saying we would have a better time in anarchy, but at least the asshole with his boot on your head would not be able to clothe his actions in the pretty lies of the state.

I don't disagree with a word you said.

I am not an anarchist, but I am naturally wary of anyone telling me what I can, and cannot do. 
I also don't like out and out fascists, so I think in the Spanish civil war, I would probably have fought with the anarchists against Franco

I guess I am a libertarian in may respects, but OTOH I do want some order and fairness in the society I live in - including the freedom to associate, do as I please if it doesn't hurt anyone else and to own things personally without anyone more powerful being free to take them without me having the right of redress.  I think - while these concepts are difficult to balance - they are not totally incompatible.

But hey - I was just probably asking for trouble.  You get all sorts on here, right?  I'd better stay off politics...

[Elwar]

All the major corps have huge tax avoidance schemes, most of their profits are in tax havens while they destroy ordinary people's jobs and force them into welfsre while the people in the middle have to pay for. It doesn't sit well with me, that's all.  I don't want to pay more taxes, but the tax take is so reduced because the large corps and rich do not pay theirs - that I have to.

If there are places with lower taxes for these corporations to flow to...why is doesn't the US just compete and provide the same low taxes for everyone to flow to?

Whenever I say we should end taxes all I hear is "what about the roads!?!". Then I hear, "corporations are being big meanies by moving to places with no taxes". To which I say...we should end taxes.

The love of government roads (aka the very thing that causes millions of deaths each year) runs deep.

[Elwar]

Did a quick and nasty chart to see how things would look if the pattern repeated 2013-2015.

If the worst is that we hit a low of $4k and we're back at new highs next year then it's not that bad at all.

[JayJuanGee]

so perhaps the fees could stay relatively low for 10 or 20 more years, but likely as BTC adoption increases, fees are likely to naturally go up, too...

The collapse of the West (and Latin America) with Asia taking the crown as the financial capital of the world will be complete by the end of 2032 according to the third occurrence of the sixth 309.6 year wave of humanity since recorded antiquity.

O.k. fair enough... something like this might happen, but seems far from a given to be projecting world-wide societal dynamics for more than 10 years into the future that have so many variables (known unknowns and unknown unknowns).

Thus (Satoshi not Core) Bitcoin will have already attained $21 trillion market cap and fulfilled its intended role as the next international reserve currency to replace the USA dollar.

What the fuck are you talking about Satoshi bitcoin?  There is no fucking such thing.  Are you talking about bcash?

Regarding a "Satoshi's original vision" talking point, Bitcoin conforms with that 100%.  Bitcoin is a evolving product that has come to its current status through math and consensus.  So the Bitcoin that is currently available is sufficiently compliant with "Satoshi's visoin."  If you think that there is some other course, such as Bcash, then go the fuck and play around with Bcash, instead of spreading nonsensical misleading ideas here that suggest that somehow Bitcoin is less than compliant with some vague concept of "Satoshi's vision" that you seem to be espousing.

So you can expect that (Satoshi not Core) Bitcoin will be only for $billionaires by then with $50,000 transaction fees. But that is what is necessary for our BTC to go to $1 million.

Again I don't understand what the fuck you are talking about.. because now you seem to be suggesting that you will have to be a billionaire to be able to use bitcoin by 2032?  sounds like nonsense to me.  Have you heard of segregated witness that facilitates the development of second layer solutions, such as lightning network?   The combination of on-chain and off-chain solutions, and various developments in that direction will likely negate your suggestions that bitcoin is evolving into elitism.

The details for my thesis are here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg40924436#msg40924436 <--- main one

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4433000.msg40989255#msg40989255

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4416188.msg40948767#msg40948767

If you have such a compelling vision, then why can't you present such vision more clearly, and perhaps create one thread with an OP, and perhaps some folks will begin to understand your prognostication, to the extent that it matters.    At this time, I cannot bring myself to read through your various linked posts, if you cannot even provide a more clear elevator pitch than you had so far presented in your above response.

If you can boil down your main points a bit better instead of throwing around inflammatory drama, then maybe I could bring myself to read further into your ideas, if there is any value there beyond your seeming desire to promote the supposed wizardry of yourself.

so perhaps the fees could stay relatively low for 10 or 20 more years, but likely as BTC adoption increases, fees are likely to naturally go up, too...

The collapse of the West (and Latin America) with Asia taking the crown as the financial capital of the world will be complete by the end of 2032 according to the third occurrence of the sixth 309.6 year wave of humanity since recorded antiquity.

Thus (Satoshi not Core) Bitcoin will have already attained $21 trillion market cap and fulfilled its intended role as the next international reserve currency to replace the USA dollar.

So you can expect that (Satoshi not Core) Bitcoin will be only for $billionaires by then with $50,000 transaction fees. But that is what is necessary for our BTC to go to $1 million.

The details for my thesis are here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg40924436#msg40924436 <--- main one

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4433000.msg40989255#msg40989255

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4416188.msg40948767#msg40948767

Okay, but can you explain it in less than twenty thousand words?

Someone once said that if you can't explain something in a simple way then you don't understand it. I recently explained how the cultural cycle Glubb identified interacts with the r/K theory as it pertains to humans in a single post. Both of which are things most people have never even heard about. Your turn.

O.k.  Ibian.. this is more or less what I was trying to say... so I agree that you said it better (except I am not sure whether you actually accomplished the r/K theory explanation in one post.. but whatever, I am not inviting you into posting more WO thread irrelevance)... 

[JayJuanGee]

bitcoin weekly chart shows bullish sign , according to me before 1st week of july we will see uptrend in market . However cant say upto which level it will lasts bcoz it is not as strong as last year bull run . back to back 3rd dip of $6k have created more panic , need to break resistance soon .

O.k.. I will bite.

Where are you suggesting resistance?  Maybe $6,300?  $6,900?  $7,500?  $8,800 and/or $9,999?

Can we rest assured at some level?  Let's say prices go springing back into a $8k to $9,500 range, would that be more comfortable?

What happens if we do not break resistance?  Does support become more vulnerable?  Or do you believe it is possible that BTC prices could float around "stably" in a $5,800 to $7k range?

What is a more detailed description of your assessment of the current price dynamics (movements) in bitcoin?

[HairyMaclairy]

Did a quick and nasty chart to see how things would look if the pattern repeated 2013-2015.

If the worst is that we hit a low of $4k and we're back at new highs next year then it's not that bad at all.

I’m thinking the low point will be around Feb - August 2019.  So really just another 12 months to run.

[TERA2]

Here are the two charts actually on the exact same time scale. I'd say we are closer to point A than to point B, especially if the bear markets are getting longer. We all know though that the reality of the situation is it's not going to repeat itself and something brand new is going to happen.

LIKE THIS



JUST KIDDING

[Rosewater Foundation]

Well, if we're destined to spend another year together we ought to really try to make something of it this time around. Maybe we should try to solve some longstanding math problems. The Yang–Mills existence and mass gap seems straight-forward enough, and there's a prize.

[JayJuanGee]

Did a quick and nasty chart to see how things would look if the pattern repeated 2013-2015.

If the worst is that we hit a low of $4k and we're back at new highs next year then it's not that bad at all.

Currently, that potential scenario is looking plausible and reasonable - even though I have been thinking that BTC was not going to be in a 2014/15 scenario, but instead in a early 2013 scenario.. which would mean bouncing back sooner...   Either scenario does seem within reason, even though the 2014/15 scenario is seeming more plausible than it did a few months ago.

[HairyMaclairy]

Well, if we're destined to spend another year together we ought to really try to make something of it this time around. Maybe we should try to solve some longstanding math problems. The Yang–Mills existence and mass gap seems straight-forward enough, and there's a prize.

Maybe we should aim a bit lower.  We could crowd source a children's book. 

[JayJuanGee]

Here are the two charts actually on the exact same time scale. I'd say we are closer to point A than to point B, especially if the bear markets are getting longer. We all know though that the reality of the situation is it's not going to repeat itself and something brand new is going to happen.

LIKE THIS



JUST KIDDING

I will concede that you got a chuckle out of me on that one, Tera, mood ruinin, beara.... and part of the humor, this time, has to do with bear scenarios being more reasonable than they were a few months ago, and seeming unlikelihood of the more bullish scenario of your last "just kidding" chart.   

[Rosewater Foundation]

Well, if we're destined to spend another year together we ought to really try to make something of it this time around. Maybe we should try to solve some longstanding math problems. The Yang–Mills existence and mass gap seems straight-forward enough, and there's a prize.

Maybe we should aim a bit lower.  We could crowd source a children's book. 

So, you are suggesting we shoot short people. And illustrate it for kids.

I don't think that's what I meant at all.

[infofront]

Well, if we're destined to spend another year together we ought to really try to make something of it this time around. Maybe we should try to solve some longstanding math problems. The Yang–Mills existence and mass gap seems straight-forward enough, and there's a prize.

Not a bad idea. Certainly if we pool together all of our talents we can do something good for the world.

It may lessen the pain of having to watch my family live on spam and ramen for the next year.

[Rosewater Foundation]

Ok. I will learn to steal groceries. Let's do this thing.

[Syke]

So, you are suggesting we shoot short people. And illustrate it for kids.

I don't think that's what I meant at all.

I've heard there's a silk road that helps with these sort of ideas.

[bitserve]

Ok. I will learn to steal groceries. Let's do this thing.

Are we so poor now?

Damn, this is getting ugly too fast.

[mymenace]

All the major corps have huge tax avoidance schemes, most of their profits are in tax havens while they destroy ordinary people's jobs and force them into welfsre while the people in the middle have to pay for. It doesn't sit well with me, that's all.  I don't want to pay more taxes, but the tax take is so reduced because the large corps and rich do not pay theirs - that I have to.

If there are places with lower taxes for these corporations to flow to...why is doesn't the US just compete and provide the same low taxes for everyone to flow to?

Whenever I say we should end taxes all I hear is "what about the roads!?!". Then I hear, "corporations are being big meanies by moving to places with no taxes". To which I say...we should end taxes.

The love of government roads (aka the very thing that causes millions of deaths each year) runs deep.

Remove personal income tax

That is all