Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jojo69]

meh

I was poor when this whole thing started.


I'm pretty good at it.  I can do it as long as it takes.

[1643308606]

1643308606

[TERA2]

This could be shaping up to something like the May 2014 interim bull trap and visit 10K or so again.

[jojo69]

well aren't you just a ray of fucking sunshine

[yefi]

My plan is, from what I gather, similar to Bob's. I'd like to sell just under 50% of my crypto, put the proceeds in stocks, withdraw the standard 4% or so per annum, and let the remaining corn ride.
I will only do so when I can maintain or increase my current income. Bitcoin will be used for cars, airfare, and hookers.

I'm reluctant to invest in stocks. This is one of the longest stretches without a crash, and given that we live in a world with record-breaking debt, that's not a great place to be.

[infofront]

My plan is, from what I gather, similar to Bob's. I'd like to sell just under 50% of my crypto, put the proceeds in stocks, withdraw the standard 4% or so per annum, and let the remaining corn ride.
I will only do so when I can maintain or increase my current income. Bitcoin will be used for cars, airfare, and hookers.

I'm reluctant to invest in stocks. This is one of the longest stretches without a crash, and given that we live in a world with record-breaking debt, that's not a great place to be.

Very true, but I wouldn't feel comfortable retiring anytime soon with all of of my money in bitcoin either. It's still too volatile, unless you have at least 1,000+, in which case the volatility doesn't matter as much. And most other investments suck.

[Searing]

My plan is, from what I gather, similar to Bob's. I'd like to sell just under 50% of my crypto, put the proceeds in stocks, withdraw the standard 4% or so per annum, and let the remaining corn ride.
I will only do so when I can maintain or increase my current income. Bitcoin will be used for cars, airfare, and hookers.

I'm reluctant to invest in stocks. This is one of the longest stretches without a crash, and given that we live in a world with record-breaking debt, that's not a great place to be.

yeah... I can see me panic selling BTC like a 12-year-old child...taking 25% hit say (15% cap gains and 10% state)...then putting it into the stock market and recession

a normal recession is 20% loss...thus now down 45%....but with Trump in office and the long time since last recession....call it 40% correction. Say recession takes

the usual 7 years to come back.....and in that time...I'm watching Crypto and/or Gold going at LEAST sideways if not ups...

so I hodl..worse case..I blow all my crypto at 1K or less BTC and still stay retired till 65 years (and start living off traditional investments 1 year early and have medicare already)

so ...people can beat me up on my $5,131.80 KNC Jupiter BTC miner from 2013...where all this came from, and me not selling at the right time...I can at least state

that and retired 3 years early...certainly nothing I ever expected getting that unit in 2013...and I will call it a win in my mind....if nothing else.

but damn, a 40% deep recession (likely IMHO) and 25% tax hit and be 65% down in fiat...if such happened with stocks/edward jones...THEN watch

crypto go sideways or up ...say like gold...naw....best to just ride it in the ground.....better story anyway, when they stick me in the nursing home someday...the currency

of nursing homes is 'stories' ....chump or champ..this was a doozy

(sorry to expose everyone to my convoluted logic)

[bluebits]

This could be shaping up to something like the May 2014 interim bull trap and visit 10K or so again.

Where can a G3 with more power than G2 come from? The volume is so low, is it off of the accumulated drop from 10k at the top of G2?

2014 replay looks like a fall to fake bottom™ #1 @~4800, bounce it 6k, try again, bounce again. Then when it hits 6k this final time and has absolutely nowhere to go it's off to 3k for a real volume bounce.

[jojo69]

...the currency of nursing homes is 'stories' ....chump or champ..this was a doozy

we are in the presence of greatness

[marcus_of_augustus]

... much of social interaction is stories, story-telling and pecking orders based on narrative delivery.

Even in the elite technical journals and hardest of the objective studies, math, physics, etc the narrative is the final arbiter, after the necessary hurdles of the field are successfully demonstrated as having been mastered, equations, experiments, etc the studies with the best story behind them are the rulers of the roost.

Some of the best crypto stories are just simply unbelievable or so far over the line that they are a hazard to one's financial or legal status so best kept to oneself, for now. I recall one of those visionary posts from the 2011 era, I think by Vlad, that he said he felt like he was caught up in a Neal Stephenson story like Cryptonomicon, it's been a whirlwind ride and shows no signs of ending anytime soon. Some seriously crazy stuff has been going down that we will hear about eventually.

[marcus_of_augustus]

the window leading up to CME futures option expiry 6/29 should present some good buying opportunities.

Bears have been sitting short for a long time on those will be wanting to take their cash profits ... maybe they'll but bitcoin with them eh TERA2?

[jojo69]

... much of social interaction is stories, story-telling and pecking orders based on narrative delivery.

Even in the elite technical journals and hardest of the objective studies, math, physics, etc the narrative is the final arbiter, after the necessary hurdles of the field are successfully demonstrated as having been mastered, equations, experiments, etc the studies with the best story behind them are the rulers of the roost.

Some of the best crypto stories are just simply unbelievable or so far over the line that they are a hazard to one's financial or legal status so best kept to oneself, for now. I recall one of those visionary posts from the 2011 era, I think by Vlad, that he said he felt like he was caught up in a Neal Stephenson story like Cryptonomicon, it's been a whirlwind ride and shows no signs of ending anytime soon. Some seriously crazy stuff has been going down that we will hear about eventually.

Neil very much showed us the way, particularly in the baroque cycle, I owe him a great debt.

[Toxic2040]

1h


4h


D


M




 

[TERA2]

^ What is that arbitrary yellow line on the bottom.

[Last of the V8s]

https://deadcoins.com/

first page - Displaying 1 - 50 of 818

just 1600 more to go

all altcoins are worthless scams - deal with it and exit

what's funny about your link is that they created their alt... CoinJanitor tokens

all very embarassing. fwiw, deleted

[wayna]

(saw this on Twitter. made me laugh)

Hahahaha!!

Some meme of this thread are just epic  !!

[windjc]

^ What is that arbitrary yellow line on the bottom.

This correction will not be like 2013 or 2014. Why? Because it's 2018. The rise was different, the correction will be different too. Its easy to try to trace and outline the future using the past, but its just an exercise for fun. Its relatively useless.

My best guess is this correction will be a somewhere in the middle of the two based on severity (%) dip, but will last longer than both. But even if my best guess is wrong, I will be right about one thing - this correction will be its own animal.

[Majormax]

[ I don't think it will get that low myself, but can certainly see $2k-2.5k being very possible. The number of traders, hopers and buyers on the way down will limit the pace of the decline, so plenty of time to get out now, and plenty of time to get back in. I wouldn't wait for $2k, because that might be very brief, but buying back at $3k gives some opportunity for profit on a 1-2 year view.

Personally, I'm not brave enough to short it, because nothing is certain.]


I agree with what you are writing here, except for your seeming attempt to get peeps to sell now (persuade? or protect?  of course, you would assert that you are attempting to "protect" poor little naive BTC HODLers) and asserting that there is "plenty of time to get back in."

Well, yes I suppose that might be right: not quite sure what you are looking for there. Protecting people from their own folly is a fools errand.  Using a bit of introspection, I guess what I mean to say is :

' OK, I think it is probably going to 3k or less... You can sell if you like, but I am not going to, because

1.  Bull trend will probably resume in 2 years or less.

2.  Having got out it is harder to get back in.

3.  The profit of getting it right is too low compared with the high cost of getting it wrong. '

[Majormax]

^ What is that arbitrary yellow line on the bottom.

This correction will not be like 2013 or 2014. Why? Because it's 2018. The rise was different, the correction will be different too. Its easy to try to trace and outline the future using the past, but its just an exercise for fun. Its relatively useless.

My best guess is this correction will be a somewhere in the middle of the two based on severity (%) dip, but will last longer than both. But even if my best guess is wrong, I will be right about one thing - this correction will be its own animal.

Good logic.  Feels about right to me.

The bad news is the length of time of the correction : The good news is that most of the price fall from ATH has already happened. If we holdled in a 13k price fall, then another ~3k is easy,  no ?

( or 2k or 4k , meh)

[wayna]

^ What is that arbitrary yellow line on the bottom.

This correction will not be like 2013 or 2014. Why? Because it's 2018. The rise was different, the correction will be different too. Its easy to try to trace and outline the future using the past, but its just an exercise for fun. Its relatively useless.

My best guess is this correction will be a somewhere in the middle of the two based on severity (%) dip, but will last longer than both. But even if my best guess is wrong, I will be right about one thing - this correction will be its own animal.

Good logic.  Feels about right to me.

The bad news is the length of time of the correction : The good news is that most of the price fall from ATH has already happened. If we holdled in a 13k price fall, then another ~3k is easy,  no ?

( or 2k or 4k , meh)

To me, maybe 3k is excessive but 2k can definitely happen.

I think we still have a couple of months of sustained dips.

[Last of the V8s]