Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[windjc]

I'm very disheartened today. Lost a major chunk of my bitcoin holdings (almost 0.38 BTC) on Bitmex even though I've been longing since $8000 with just 4x leverage (adding more & more after every dump to average it further down), but still at $6140, I got liquidated. With this, I can pretty much assure that $6140 was actually the bottom. It was only to liquidate me, hard luck. Don't comment that I need to risk only what I can afford to lose, I know that very well, just had some real bad luck (as well as confusion) this time.

For reasons like this, I continue to conclude (personally) that leveraging is not necessary, especially in bitcoin.  In bitcoin we are lucky to experience outrageously stupendous returns, and I we do not need to leverage in order to achieve such outrageously stupendous returns on our investment. 

Accordingly, if you just invest regularly, then the most that you can lose is 100% of what you put in - but if you employ leverage (especially using the margin trade vehicles supplied by exchanges), you not only can lose your 100% more quickly, you also lose it way faster, which causes a kind of magnification that if you employ 4x leverage than you can lose 400% - something like that.  Therefore, I still consider any kind of leveraging to be too far into a "gambling" rather than "investing" category, especially with bitcoin.

That's exactly what I'd like to conclude. It's a total gamble, and I'd not suggest anyone anymore to be a part of leveraging at BitMex. I still can't believe how easily I lost it all just because of a dump which is not even visible on CoinMarketCap (I'd repeat that again - I'm 100% sure & confident that I got liquidated right at the bottom which was $6140). Moreover, when I was about to get liquidated at $6140, I tried to increase the margin further with a little bit of more BTC (which would've increased the liquidation level to $6050 instead of $6140 and I'd have been saved from being liquidated), but effing system of BitMex gave me an error (system overload, try again later). It's not easy for me to just invest more into bitcoin when I've my whole family to support, my education bills to pay and all other hell. It's surely going to take a while to recover from the two recent losses of BitMex and DENT at CoinRail (I highly doubt that I'll get the DENT back from CoinRail, even though they've been telling me to calm down).

A recap:

-Sold my GPT websites network for 919 bitcoins in 2011, used bitcoin as "just another" payment processor. Started saving the dollars at LibertyReserve.com.
-Lost every penny of savings at LibertyReserve.com (this is when I realized that bitcoin could be the future after reading an article at CoinDesk).
-Bought a huge bag of ZCL from my savings in mid-2017 thinking it has gone down by 70%, and can't go further down, but it continued its decline.
-Shilled ZCL in almost all 2017. Gave idea of Bitcoin Private to Rhett, but he said it's "worthless" and he's going to abandon the project of ZCL. I could've developed BTCP on my own if it wasn't for integration of stupid two way replay protection. Sold all ZCL in November at $2 each due to fear of getting it de-listed from Bittrex (as there was no trading volume present). He then introduced my idea of BTCP in December and ZCL skyrocketed to $200. Now John McAfee shills BTCP all the time.

All of this can be considered as a proof that I got my savings liquidated right at the bottom and we won't see bitcoin below $6100 again.

Nice words tweeted by Vinny Lingham:

Vinny is not the deepest thinker.

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[d_eddie]

I'm very disheartened today. Lost a major chunk of my bitcoin holdings (almost 0.38 BTC) on Bitmex even though I've been longing since $8000 with just 4x leverage (adding more & more after every dump to average it further down), but still at $6140, I got liquidated. With this, I can pretty much assure that $6140 was actually the bottom. It was only to liquidate me, hard luck. Don't comment that I need to risk only what I can afford to lose, I know that very well, just had some real bad luck (as well as confusion) this time.

For reasons like this, I continue to conclude (personally) that leveraging is not necessary, especially in bitcoin.  In bitcoin we are lucky to experience outrageously stupendous returns, and I we do not need to leverage in order to achieve such outrageously stupendous returns on our investment.

Leveraging is a power tool that shouldn't be used lightheartedly. An understanding of the underlying arithmetic helps. On Bitmex in particular, shorts that are leveraged under 1 can't be liquidated at any price and only become a loss if/when the position is closed.

Accordingly, if you just invest regularly, then the most that you can lose is 100% of what you put in - but if you employ leverage (especially using the margin trade vehicles supplied by exchanges), you not only can lose your 100% more quickly, you also lose it way faster, which causes a kind of magnification that if you employ 4x leverage than you can lose 400% - something like that.

Well, kind of, yes. For example, if you make 4 repeated trades that burn each of their 100% approximately 4x times faster. Other side of the coin: for example, if you are using a leveraged position as a hedge, so you can hedge 4x times as much for the same "cost" (margin), admittedly on a smaller range. Not necessarily 4x smaller, though. The arithmetic details can get tricky.

[Raja_MBZ]

I'm very disheartened today. Lost a major chunk of my bitcoin holdings (almost 0.38 BTC) on Bitmex even though I've been longing since $8000 with just 4x leverage (adding more & more after every dump to average it further down), but still at $6140, I got liquidated. With this, I can pretty much assure that $6140 was actually the bottom. It was only to liquidate me, hard luck. Don't comment that I need to risk only what I can afford to lose, I know that very well, just had some real bad luck (as well as confusion) this time.

For reasons like this, I continue to conclude (personally) that leveraging is not necessary, especially in bitcoin.  In bitcoin we are lucky to experience outrageously stupendous returns, and I we do not need to leverage in order to achieve such outrageously stupendous returns on our investment.

Leveraging is a power tool that shouldn't be used lightheartedly. An understanding of the underlying arithmetic helps. On Bitmex in particular, shorts that are leveraged under 1 can't be liquidated at any price and only become a loss if/when the position is closed.

Accordingly, if you just invest regularly, then the most that you can lose is 100% of what you put in - but if you employ leverage (especially using the margin trade vehicles supplied by exchanges), you not only can lose your 100% more quickly, you also lose it way faster, which causes a kind of magnification that if you employ 4x leverage than you can lose 400% - something like that.

Well, kind of, yes. For example, if you make 4 repeated trades that burn each of their 100% approximately 4x times faster. Other side of the coin: for example, if you are using a leveraged position as a hedge, so you can hedge 4x times as much for the same "cost" (margin), admittedly on a smaller range. Not necessarily 4x smaller, though. The arithmetic details can get tricky.

*sounds like a Bitmex'er*

[jbreher]

I'm so tired of all of this ignorant anti lighting network rhetoric that I keep hearing and seeing constantly. Do you guys think Ver is funding this BS.

My guess is 'no'. I'm probably the most persistent Bitcoin* believer / SegWit skeptic still participating in this thread, and I ain't getting paid. (Most others of my opinions seem to have left for more hospitable climes). And while I may have a limited perspective on the matter, I think this thread is one of the most important centers of mindshare in Bitcoindom. You'd think that if there were expenditures on shillery, this thread would be one of the major targets.

*whether BTC or BCH

Incidentally, the Bitcoin network topology is nothing like the diagram on the right.

[d_eddie]

Well, at least somebody is trying to hold "The bottom" up... . (Mic post some good pic)  

Confirmed. Bottom is being held up.




Sometimes I feel like my biggest contribution to this thread is butt pictures, but I guess that's good enough.

Here goes the last merit in my quota for legendaries or quasi-legendaries (>1k guys).

I was hoping to give it to Last of the V8's, but he didn't take my invitation. About time for me to tribute infofront's status as a top bottom poster.

As an aside for gentlemen only - If I had that kind of panorama readily available, I wouldn't mind the current search for any other bottoms.

EDIT - sh** I f*** up, not 2! I never gave more than 1 merit to any single post. I tricked myself into clicking that button with both... uh, hands.

[Anon136]

Incidentally, the Bitcoin network topology is nothing like the diagram on the right.

It's like the one on the right but with crap dangling off of it. There is a large community of full node operators, that community looks like that picture on the right, if others decide to tack their own structures onto it that doesn't change the fact that the underlying one is still there.

[d_eddie]

(quotes freely snipped for relevance)

Still having more money than you could probably spend (as such whales do) is not that terrible even if your net worth gets a cut of several hundred millions. Maybe I am wrong, but I don't think they are as much depressed as I am right now.

I played this past peak much worse than I did the previous (2013) in which I doubled my Bitcoin count. The blame is on me (or my greed).

P.S.: No, not going to break/sell. I can perfectly (and depressedly) ride this thing until ZERO. I am more worried about the amount of profits already (even if temporarily?) lost than what I still have to lose (which is LESS).

We're soul brothers in a way - but swings and opportunities aren't over yet. New profits can and will come, and the one thing I learned about trading is: The only way to really learn a lesson is pay for it. You paid handsomely, but you're still in the green. Your glass is half full, see? And it's Don Simon Premium, not the usual stuff!

It's basically that.... I didn't play well this time... But hindsight is 20/20... and I really don't like to have a substantial exposure to exchanges anymore.

So yeah, hodl and suck it up. In the end I will be fine... or not. We will see.

I also paid my lessons through the nose. Still in the green, though, using my new knowledge from old mistakes to make some corn on the side, and still learning useful tidbits at a much more reasonable price. See you at the 100k party sooner than we both think?

[Toxic2040]

Bitcoin...1 year later.

4h


D
Rising volume is what I am noticing, a good sign. Still shying away from testing the 9 day conversion line(tenkan-sen). Looks to me like bears are going to make another push downward over the weekend. #stronghands

[xhomerx10]

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Nice words tweeted by Vinny Lingham:

 Very poorly worded.  It actually doesnt make sense as written.
Which luxury is he lacking?  Has he been living a hand-to-mouth existence?  He's a fucking millionaire.

Edit:  im a fucking idiot.  I'll blame it on the night shifts...
It's perfectly written in plain english.

[jbreher]

Real money can only be created out of production and only after this has happened, can it be borrowed to create debt, not the other way around. The current monetary system is not real money, it is a house of cards built on decades of mind-fucking the public. There will be an awakening.

Or, there will be a reckoning. Brought on by a r3kt-oning.

[jbreher]

You and many others in this thread are basically saying
"Fractional Reserve is shit"

Let's not forget it's backed by Proof of War.

It should be obvious, but this fact seems to have escaped your attention: the fact that fiat is backed by proof of war does not lead to a conclusion that it is not shit.

[bitserve]

(quotes freely snipped for relevance)

Still having more money than you could probably spend (as such whales do) is not that terrible even if your net worth gets a cut of several hundred millions. Maybe I am wrong, but I don't think they are as much depressed as I am right now.

I played this past peak much worse than I did the previous (2013) in which I doubled my Bitcoin count. The blame is on me (or my greed).

P.S.: No, not going to break/sell. I can perfectly (and depressedly) ride this thing until ZERO. I am more worried about the amount of profits already (even if temporarily?) lost than what I still have to lose (which is LESS).

We're soul brothers in a way - but swings and opportunities aren't over yet. New profits can and will come, and the one thing I learned about trading is: The only way to really learn a lesson is pay for it. You paid handsomely, but you're still in the green. Your glass is half full, see? And it's Don Simon Premium, not the usual stuff!

It's basically that.... I didn't play well this time... But hindsight is 20/20... and I really don't like to have a substantial exposure to exchanges anymore.

So yeah, hodl and suck it up. In the end I will be fine... or not. We will see.

I also paid my lessons through the nose. Still in the green, though, using my new knowledge from old mistakes to make some corn on the side, and still learning useful tidbits at a much more reasonable price. See you at the 100k party sooner than we both think?

Yeah, I know we don't have reasons to complain for the most part... yet at the same time it hurts... and I don't think there's nothing wrong in acknowledging both.

And... who knows, the $100K party is currently still less than x20 away.... We have seen the badger do way crazier things in very little time, so... who knows!

Thinking about it... The $100K party would be the *most justified* "excuse" for a celebration party EVER!

[Toxic2040]

There is a thread out "there" already...but what ever. This is worth posting here imo.

Tom Lee of FundStrat is saying there is a reason for the cyclic sell-offs we have been seeing..seems legit. For all you daytarders it might behoove you to sync up somewhat to what is going on over there at the CBOE..  ymmv.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/fundstrat-s-thomas-lee-weakness-in-bitcoin-is-caused-by-futures-expiration

According to Lee, Bitcoin usually sees a drop of around 18 percent in 10 days before futures expiration, with prices generally recovering by six days afterward. Lee explained that if a trader is long on Bitcoin and short the futures, holders may sell large shares of BTC at the volume weighted average price as contracts move closer to expiring.

Near expiration however, they may sell the remaining Bitcoin, which causes the price to drop, and leaving the short position in the futures they close “with a handsome profit.”

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Forgot a 1h chart.
Hold through this and we might see some green cloud action soon.

[Tyr808]

You and many others in this thread are basically saying
"Fractional Reserve is shit"

Let's not forget it's backed by Proof of War.

It should be obvious, but this fact seems to have escaped your attention: the fact that fiat is backed by proof of war does not lead to a conclusion that it is not shit.

Relatively speaking.
It's shit for the have-nots of course.

For the have-a-little-and-want-more it could be good or bad according to whether one is able to use it at their advantage (id est: successfully throwing earl liquidity in the rat race).
The biggest critique to full reserve systems resides in the fact that where the lender is not intrinsecally motivated to assume the risk, there is less space for businesses to fluorish without that initial money-debt boost.

The price for that is very high of course.

[JayJuanGee]

Hodling is depressing in times like this.... it's my cold wallet that is being brutally hit what concerns me.

Just think about the WinkleVii's or Tim Draper's cold wallet and you'll feel a whole lot better.  

I tried. But it doesn't help. Still having more money than you could probably spend (as such whales do) is not that terrible even if your net worth gets a cut of several hundred millions. Maybe I am wrong, but I don't think they are as much depressed as I am right now.

I keep repeating it but... If we could act as if that $20K peak never happened (so ridiculously soon) I would be pretty happy right now. That's the only thing that helps for me.

I played this past peak much worse than I did the previous (2013) in which I doubled my Bitcoin count. The blame is on me (or my greed).

P.S.: No, not going to break/sell. I can perfectly (and depressedly) ride this thing until ZERO. I am more worried about the amount of profits already (even if temporarily?) lost than what I still have to lose (which is LESS).

Possibilities seem like this:

1) you did not sell enough on the way up  (anyone can kind of feel like that)

2) you sold on the way up, but you bought back too soon, so now you are running out of money to buy  (there seems to be a remedy for this, and that is to just budget a plan for on the way down - but of course, if you don't have any money for buying and you don't want to sell any then you just have to HODL, suck it up , and hope to fix the mistake in the future).

3) could be some other possibilities, but I cannot think of them, at this moment.    

It's mostly 1, also 2... and for 3 here comes the explanation: In 2013/2014 I had most of my BTC on exchanges for active trading, that let me double my stash in BTC count even if the total value was lower than before the drop. This time I kept reducing my exposure to exchanges.

I am in a similar boat to you, at least in terms of attempting to reduce my exchange exposure, but I believe that I was never trading in such extreme amounts because I could never bear to sell very much of my BTC stash at any one given time.  I believe that I went from about a bit over 60% of the value of my BTC investment on various exchanges to about 20-25% of the value of my BTC investment on exchanges. I figured that I could take  some of the BTC value off of exchanges while at the same time having enough BTC on the exchanges that allow me to continue to sell up to a certain amount of BTC if the BTC price goes shooting up.  Subsequently, I decided that it was not worth my risk to put larger amounts of BTC on exchanges, "in the event that there was some kind of LARGE justification for me to sell a large portion of my BTC quickly).  I will admit that around the time of the BCash hardfork, and some of the other uncertainties then in play about how the segwit adoption was going to get implemented, I did allocate a bit of a higher portion of BTC on exchanges because I concluded that some of the pulling of money off exchanges and the possible blockage of deposits and withdrawals for a certain period of time would possibly cause some additional lack of liquidity profitability by having some additional BTC on exchanges.

In the end I was only trading with around 10% of my total stash, and I didn't even sell all of that 10% as I keep doing scalping in a way similar to yours as we have discussed before.

It seems that I am trading less than 10% of my stash, too, but I keep some extra BTC on exchanges that allow me to sell (currently up to $35k) without having to make additional deposits. I am not keeping extra BTC value on exchanges for other currently unknown events, and funny thing that if the total value of BTC goes shooting up, then you end up needing less BTC on exchanges, so it seems to have been largely playing out that way for me... and I discovered that I can still get some of the protections from the BTC volatility downside while selling smaller portions of my total holdings...  (maybe the whole situation just rises to the level of NOT wanting to generate too many dollars that I would not know what to do with besides putting back into BTC and my being willing to ride out more of the downside volatility without feeling any kind of need to make great increases to my BTC holdings by selling large amounts of BTC on the way up.  In other words, I have found selling relatively smaller amount of BTC to be adequately satisfying.. without any need to get too greedy).

So even if I ended with a 30 or 40% gain in my trading during the drop, that is for only a 10% of my total stash... sooooo a measly 3-4% total gain in coins vs a drop of 65% in price from the ATH... ouch!

I have concluded, for myself, that it is not necessary to become maniacally focused on the amount of profits that I make with each downward volatility as long as I continue to moderately follow a reasonable system that focuses on attempting to stack BTC and insuring myself (somewhat) from extreme possible downward price movements, yet for me the projections of future BTC holdings seem to be working out in a way that I am continuing to add to the stack (and the future projected stack at various price projection points.. It may be unrealistic to consider that the overall holdings will continue to increase or even increase in some kind of 30% to 40% range.. especially if the BTC price doubles or triples or does a 10x or more.  

So, yeah, if the goal is to stack BTC then a direct outcome of that kind of goal would be that the overall value of the holdings of both BTC and dollars is going to go down way more in the short term - and especially, like you said when there is something like a 65% BTC price drop (or perhaps more could come)

It's basically that.... I didn't play well this time... But hindsight is 20/20... and I really don't like to have a substantial exposure to exchanges anymore.

So yeah, hodl and suck it up. In the end I will be fine... or not. We will see.

A large majority of us BTC bulls have decent chances of doing quite well with an overall BTC stacking practice, even if there are various points in the short term that we could calculate various ways that we could have made more money or better preserved our overall BTC portfolio value.

Also, if we are not leveraging and only investing what we can afford to lose, then we should not be becoming too emotional about the situation because all of our living expenses are covered, and then the main issue would only be that we are wishing to be more rich, rather than already being rich because we are mostly already living within our means and our bitcoin investment is not distracting us from living within our means.

[JayJuanGee]

Well, at least somebody is trying to hold "The bottom" up... . (Mic post some good pic) 

Confirmed. Bottom is being held up.




Sometimes I feel like my biggest contribution to this thread is butt pictures, but I guess that's good enough.

That is a BIG ass bottom, too!!!      I am shocked!!!!   

[savetherainforest]

Hey it'll probably spike down to sub $600!! /s

When bearish calls get really stupid, the bottom is close.  

As scary as this sounds, I wouldn't be surprised if that happened. I am at the stage where all I do is pray and hope while fearing the worst. Anything under $5k, and its full panic station.

How the hell do I not see these posts?? ... I think I have an internal 'ignore' mechanism that skips over shills with very few posts & merits. But anyway... that is some good stuff just right there!!!

[JayJuanGee]

Interdasting.

Based on that chart, looks like more DOWN is on the way?   

[realr0ach]

Trump once again acts as Jewish puppet trying to false flag attack in Syria:

https://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines/world-news/false-flag-alert-u-s-with-trumps-authorization-just-started-funding-the-white-helmets-in-syria-again/

"MAGA" = ending the fed, breaking up the banks and media, and returning to constitutional money (silver and gold), not acting as a Jewish puppet.  Until there's any mention of doing these things like Ron Paul would have done, this is all a scam.  The only reason they're being tough on Mexican immigration and China is because both of those countries are exporting deflation to the US, and the debt based banking system collapses without permanent inflation.  The fight against Mexico and China itself is even a scam and is just a proxy war to save the banks.

[Torque]

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Nice words tweeted by Vinny Lingham:

 Very poorly worded.  It actually doesnt make sense as written.
Which luxury is he lacking?  Has he been living a hand-to-mouth existence?  He's a fucking millionaire.

Edit:  im a fucking idiot.  I'll blame it on the night shifts...
It's perfectly written in plain english.

No, actually his ramblings are not "enlightening" at all, but are still poorly worded garbage when you consider that what he wrote can literally be applied to every single investment vehicle on the planet. Bitcoin (or crypto) is no exception.

Vinny is an idiot.

The wealthy elite will always have the luxury of being the strongest hands with any investment vehicle, because they are already rich and don't need the money they invest (so no need to liquidate during down turns).