Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[xhomerx10]

So some of y'all might recall a post of mine a while back.

Essentially, I had a discussion back in September with my employer about my eventual retirement. We decided that end of 2018q2 would work for all involved.

Now that I'm in my last week as a wage earner, it's starting to feel pretty surreal.

kampai!

 Time to enjoy the fruits of your labour.  Congratulations!

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[mymenace]

Gavin Andresen - Bcash king

How many rolls did it take to make your hat?  

What the hell, I'll play along. What are the actions -- or even utterances -- made by Gavin Andresen that lead you to labeling him as "Bcash king"?

https://news.bitcoin.com/gavin-andresen-drops-a-new-concept-on-github-for-bitcoin-cash/

https://twitter.com/gavinandresen/status/929377620000681984?lang=en

Bitcoin Cash is what I started working on in 2010: a store of value AND means of exchange.

Umm hmm.... umm hmmm. So one posted idea and one public statement is all it takes to become king. Got it.

Perhaps your hat needs yet another roll of tinfoil.

I am not the one on the defensive here
Why are you so irate about BCash being developed by Gavin


Most people who call other people conspiracy theorists, are the ones actually hiding something

[realr0ach]

The whole Tether issue is only an "issue" if they are created out of thin air.

I used to think that way too.

What if...

they are using these tethers to feed short contracts?

For anyone that's completely clueless in this thread, having actively traded on Bitfinex for a decent duration of time in the past, I can say for 100% fact that a single entity controls the bitcoin price using that exchange since bitcoin was $200 and this entity longs and shorts, but spends most of it's time trying to raise the price.  They try to crater the price to accumulate, then raise it.  It's a classic pump and dump.  

From observing this entity, I'm also postive the Bitfinex exchange owners are in on this operation.  It's either the exchange owners themselves doing it, the Chinese mining cartel, or some giant TBTF bank like Goldman Sachs.  The main reason I throw the TBTF banks in there is because this entity seems to be completely above the law while a normal person would already be in jail for the stuff Bitfinex has done.  Then there was also supposedly $400 million in drug money seized in Poland that was affiliated with Bitfinex and not a damn thing happened to them.  Kind of reminds you of HSBC being caught laundering $800+ million in drug money.

[Elwar]

So some of y'all might recall a post of mine a while back.

Essentially, I had a discussion back in September with my employer about my eventual retirement. We decided that end of 2018q2 would work for all involved.

Now that I'm in my last week as a wage earner, it's starting to feel pretty surreal.

kampai!

Welcome to retirement.

[realr0ach]

Banks and governments are not only inefficient, they are incompetent.

Did Elwar mention HE IS the government?

[JayJuanGee]

[ I don't think it will get that low myself, but can certainly see $2k-2.5k being very possible. The number of traders, hopers and buyers on the way down will limit the pace of the decline, so plenty of time to get out now, and plenty of time to get back in. I wouldn't wait for $2k, because that might be very brief, but buying back at $3k gives some opportunity for profit on a 1-2 year view.

Personally, I'm not brave enough to short it, because nothing is certain.]


I agree with what you are writing here, except for your seeming attempt to get peeps to sell now (persuade? or protect?  of course, you would assert that you are attempting to "protect" poor little naive BTC HODLers) and asserting that there is "plenty of time to get back in."

Well, yes I suppose that might be right: not quite sure what you are looking for there.

O.k.  Perhaps, I am quibbling with you a bit stronger than necessary, but to me, it seems a major problem to frame matters as if $4k or $3k or $2k is inevitable, when you are most likely giving it as the most likely of the possible events.  Maybe we divide all the possible events up based on knowable factors, and you come with 20% as the highest of the probabilities, which is showing $2.5k.. and when you talk about it, it comes off as if you are saying it is inevitable.

So, quibble I must, and this is a didactic process, anyhow, since neither of us claims to really know, and we are just going back and forth regarding scenarios that we believe to be more or less likely.

Protecting people from their own folly is a fools errand. 

I could be mistaken, but I recall in a previous post that you said something about having a mission to inform people about a more bearish scenario that is not being presented, and therefore, I concluded that you had a kind of mission to protect people from themselves... 

Actually, I participate so much in this forum in order to sort out my own ideas, and sometimes it helps to type them out and to get challenged on them.  Incidentally, each of us are likely to learn from such an interactive process, as long as we are interacting rather than just spouting out our own views... even if also, sometimes, there may be times in which the comments from others will cause us to become more rigid in our own views.

Using a bit of introspection, I guess what I mean to say is :

' OK, I think it is probably going to 3k or less... You can sell if you like,

Even if the price has decent odds of going to $3k, it remains an unsound practice to sell now for the reasons that you mention below, but also anyone who sells now, needs to be really kicking themselves in the ass and considering that they fucked up in failing/refusing to sell at earlier times.  Furthermore, if anyone considers selling now, it would be wise to consider proportionality.  So if such hypothetical person would have been in the practice of selling 100%, then instead selling 50% or some smaller proportion based on a few considerations, including the consideration that the whole situation is a fuck up and they may lose a lot of money by selling now rather than merely holding and/or figuring out ways to buy more if the price were to go down more.

but I am not going to, because

1.  Bull trend will probably resume in 2 years or less.

2.  Having got out it is harder to get back in.

3.  The profit of getting it right is too low compared with the high cost of getting it wrong. '

Yes, these are all sound reasons, and I would presume that you sold some decent amount already (or refrained from buying) at higher prices.  Actually, Majormax are you considering buying any BTC at any of the low BTC price points that you contemplate as being decently likely?  $4k?  $3k?  $2k or some other price point(s).. or are you playing it by ear?  Surely, you have already asserted that strong indications of bottom or conclusions of buying opportunities would be increased depending on HOW any additional price drop were to occur... for example, if it were to happen quickly and with high volume in the near term future, or if what you perceive to be a more likely scenario or drawn out downward movement pains over the coming year or two.

[JayJuanGee]

^ What is that arbitrary yellow line on the bottom.

This correction will not be like 2013 or 2014. Why? Because it's 2018. The rise was different, the correction will be different too. Its easy to try to trace and outline the future using the past, but its just an exercise for fun. Its relatively useless.

My best guess is this correction will be a somewhere in the middle of the two based on severity (%) dip, but will last longer than both. But even if my best guess is wrong, I will be right about one thing - this correction will be its own animal.

Good logic.  Feels about right to me.

The bad news is the length of time of the correction : The good news is that most of the price fall from ATH has already happened. If we holdled in a 13k price fall, then another ~3k is easy,  no ?

( or 2k or 4k , meh)

To me, maybe 3k is excessive but 2k can definitely happen.

I think we still have a couple of months of sustained dips.

Faulty logic to be considering the "ease" of these kinds of BTC price falls in dollar terms rather than in percentage terms. 

Accordingly, currently $2k is much more difficult to achieve, as compared to when BTC prices were in the $14k to $19k range... and even more so difficult to achieve a $2k and especially $4k drop when the price has already fallen 70% from its top.  I am not saying that such drop cannot or will not happen, but such a drop is far from a "given" or "easy."  Gonna take a lot of bear whale coins or spreading of FUD in order to scare normies out of coins to achieve such additional BTC price drop objectives.

[realr0ach]

Since nobody complains about central banks printing money out of thin air, I think its fair to not complain about a private company printing tether out of thin air.

Completely buttfucking stupid comment.  

Capitalism does not exist if you have a central bank because the bank can do stuff like raise or lower interest rates while taking out enormous positions frontrunning it's own market manipulation.  Since it can front run it's own manipulation, it can basically siphon off all wealth from the entire system so everyone is their slave.  Bitfinex printing tethers from thin air, trading with the entire pool of customer funds, or placing enormous fractional reserve longs and shorts on their own exchange is the same thing as having a central bank.

[Torque]

you guys been hearing those Wells Fargo "oh, we're so sorry" ads running lately?

They put goofy music under them like they aren't even taking it seriously themselves...it's like they are pointing and laughing at us.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rrivHxCeeY

I especially like the line "When the country went West for Gold, we were the ones to bring it back East."

Yeah, y'mean back when you guys actually transacted with sound money instead of fiat garbage? Lol

Also notice how comments are disabled on that commercial video. People would have a fkn heyday in the comments section for sure. 

[realr0ach]

Anyone find it strange the Tron group photo looks more like the choir for the Chinese communist party?

https://news.bitcoin.com/pr-tron-celebrates-its-independence-from-ethereum/



I mean, I can understand not a single black employee because maybe they don't know how to use computers or something, but not a single white person or Indian tech support guy, nothing.  Then to make things worse, they steal the r0ach forum hashtag, replace the word silver with TRON, and put it on a fake silver coin:



Fuck you!  In Tron we don't trust.  In physical silver we trust.

[HI-TEC99]

Remember that wire transfer I sent over 3 weeks ago. Well....Fuck.. still hasn't arrived.   I found a typo in the account number made by the teller and even after fixing that, a week later it still hasn't moved.
More time out of my day today to sort through this, probably having to reverse the transaction, pay to do so and wait for it to come back only to try again.
Totally BS dinosaur system.
  

Dinosaur system indeed.

Most banks are still using antiquated computers from the 60s and 70s. Although they hook them up to modern computers the central core of most bank's systems consists of obsolete hardware.

Satoshi was spot on when he pointed out Bitcoin transactions are faster and safer than wire transfers.

[Traxo]

they steal the r0ach forum hashtag, replace the word silver with TRON, and put it on a fake silver coin:



Fuck you!  In Tron we don't trust.  In physical silver we trust.

And on top of that, they remove vowels from my pseudonym, and make it their kleptocurrency abbreviation  
Talking about plagiarism!

[jojo69]

you guys been hearing those Wells Fargo "oh, we're so sorry" ads running lately?

They put goofy music under them like they aren't even taking it seriously themselves...it's like they are pointing and laughing at us.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rrivHxCeeY

I especially like the line "When the country went West for Gold, we were the ones to bring it back East."

Yeah, y'mean back when you guys actually transacted with sound money instead of fiat garbage? Lol

Also notice how comments are disabled on that commercial video. People would have a fkn heyday in the comments section for sure. 

those are the ones...complete with kazoo music

[El duderino_]

and new hights will come

[infofront]

Anyone find it strange the Tron group photo looks more like the choir for the Chinese communist party?

https://news.bitcoin.com/pr-tron-celebrates-its-independence-from-ethereum/



Fuck you!  In Tron we don't trust.  In physical silver we trust.

Every time I see a picture with a bunch of 'real' Chinese women, I'm struck by two things

• They're not particularly good looking, but...
• Still better looking than 90% of American women

[STT]

https://www.facebook.com/NicTrades/?hc_location=ufi

Trader talking through crypto, graphing theory and Bitcoin direction.    I have followed them a long time so count the commentary as genuine.  My bias would be I tend to agree with estimates or chart theory used, 6500 significance and 6800 confirmed breakout is what they just said so I concur with that in my pleb view :p

Capitalism does not exist if you have a central bank because the bank can do stuff like raise or lower interest rates while taking out enormous positions frontrunning it's own market manipulation.  Since it can front run it's own manipulation, it can basically siphon off all wealth from the entire system so everyone is their slave.

Yep thats pretty much the case and important to note, it will influence all of our lives in future decades.    Boring thing is day by day the public dont notice that we live in increasing absence of capitalism.

As far as retiring and everyone saving for a pension I do think saving a gold coin every year of work is sensible store for sitting back and spending savings instead of accumulating.  The big deal is QE is tied to pension funds, its sad to take advantage of those people but they have no choice.    Even private pensions are in theory in very close orbit to government measures and I would not exclude the extreme polar ends of inflation and deflation and how it can make us poorer.    Obviously gold is just metal, its one mention in a store of value in a long list hopefully

  The front running way modern government finances itself via debt, the users, holders of FIAT end up paying a kind of tax on capital not even just income

[nikauforest]

Fun Graphic, I want to see what happens when the trains come.

https://bitcoinsubway.cash/

[mymenace]

Fun Graphic, I want to see what happens when the trains come.

https://bitcoinsubway.cash/

and the line that runs it all stays constant?

bitcoin has only one platform?

if it was not for bitcoins multiple platforms
Bcash would not have a platform

[nikauforest]

Fun Graphic, I want to see what happens when the trains come.

https://bitcoinsubway.cash/

and the line that runs it all stays constant?

bitcoin has only one platform?

if it was not for bitcoins multiple platforms
Bcash would not have a platform

Just a fun graphic, I am not sure. Bitcoin looks like a busy station which is good.

[mymenace]

Fun Graphic, I want to see what happens when the trains come.

https://bitcoinsubway.cash/

and the line that runs it all stays constant?

bitcoin has only one platform?

if it was not for bitcoins multiple platforms
Bcash would not have a platform

Just a fun graphic, I am not sure. Bitcoin looks like a busy station which is good.

Yep definitely fun, loved the sounds too
great analogy as well, though misrepresented

interesting code as well, centralized open to mass control (this whole cloudfare, amazon web, google coding monoploy), weird how the government loves it.

thanks for the link, really enjoyed it