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Question: When will BTC finally break out (up or down)?
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21740600 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (147 posts by 36 users deleted.)
Majormax
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June 14, 2018, 08:35:38 AM

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Would you look at that... the price dips back to where it was yesterday and people are running around like chickens with their heads cut off calling for $3k.

Meanwhile we're well ahead of where we were in November, barely half a year ago... currently $6789USD/$88116CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

It wasn't much more than a year ago when gold ounce parity was the holy grail. Now a bitcoin is still worth over a quarter pound of the shiny stuff used to electroplate contacts.

Give your heads a shake.

They need to see the bigger picture  Smiley






Agree.  However, I think many posters are short term traders, and trying to guess the next few weeks moves (or even days).

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June 14, 2018, 08:39:51 AM


entry point from 5000/6000 for push to 19000 was always institutional investors


The game they played back down to 6000 (got caught out with some pump) back down again and now their last ditch effort to drop the price as low as possible for their friends

We the adopters can now dump on institutional investors



Thats similar to the way I see it, but my price points are a little different.

It is obvious that the peak of $19k coincided with the opening of CME and CBOT futures, very obvious even at the time.


In Sep 2017, Jamie Dimon made his famous, ham-fisted attack, and caused a brief blip to $2500, providing a solid floor. The price quickly rebounded to over $3000, and the Futures listings were announced soon after that. The run up from $3500 to $19000 took a mere 10 weeks, and that is the froth that needs to be cleared before a new bull phase has a chance to begin.


Those are the support levels I have quoted in my posts, and the faster the price gets there the better. Problem is it seems like its playing out into a long slow bear market, which at this rate, will take a year or two to bottom.



The log trend lines will hold above $4k.  Those have never broken.
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June 14, 2018, 08:44:03 AM



The log trend lines will hold above $4k.  Those have never broken.


If the 4k were to break (decisively) , would that be a sell signal ?
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June 14, 2018, 08:49:19 AM



The log trend lines will hold above $4k.  Those have never broken.


If the 4k were to break (decisively) , would that be a sell signal ?

It would mean the exponential trend is over. Read what you will in those tea leaves.
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June 14, 2018, 09:15:11 AM



The log trend lines will hold above $4k.  Those have never broken.


If the 4k were to break (decisively) , would that be a sell signal ?

It would mean the exponential trend is over. Read what you will in those tea leaves.


Fair enough. I am not using the chart that way, but rather trying to determine objective support levels. My assumption is that the long trend is in place until my support levels are broken. Those levels I have stated (with reasons) in the previous posts.

There are many ways to look at this.

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June 14, 2018, 09:26:19 AM

The lower it gets, the more bitcoins will be removed from market by long term holders' buying spree.
I would use such opportunity for sure. if it should get below 4-3-2 or even 1k as some pple here predict, Id probably raid my entire bank account ant put it all into bitcoin. Cheesy
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June 14, 2018, 09:33:07 AM

The lower it gets, the more bitcoins will be removed from market by long term holders' buying spree.
I would use such opportunity for sure. if it should get below 4-3-2 or even 1k as some pple here predict, Id probably raid my entire bank account ant put it all into bitcoin. Cheesy


If it ever went below $2,000 then definitely, you’d be almost guaranteed to at least double your money, I’d imagine pretty quickly.

Test of $6,000 held though any way. Do we think the bottom is in or will there be a lower low?
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June 14, 2018, 09:44:23 AM
Merited by BobLawblaw (1)

The lower it gets, the more bitcoins will be removed from market by long term holders' buying spree.
I would use such opportunity for sure. if it should get below 4-3-2 or even 1k as some pple here predict, Id probably raid my entire bank account ant put it all into bitcoin. Cheesy


If it ever went below $2,000 then definitely, you’d be almost guaranteed to at least double your money, I’d imagine pretty quickly.

Test of $6,000 held though any way. Do we think the bottom is in or will there be a lower low?

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June 14, 2018, 09:47:52 AM

I will just leave this here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdOt7UUAPiQ

 Kiss

Interesting video from a YouTube channel I follow. Funny enough we’re at $6.5K today which is the key support level mentioned in the video, and let’s see if it breaks below this due to bot or institutional pressure or whatever and then hopefully bounces up as a False Breakout like Alessio explained. I still think the long-term exponential growth line of BTC from 2011-2018 is intact, and that’s what I’ll be basing my investing on! Long live the King!
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June 14, 2018, 09:55:15 AM

I will just leave this here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdOt7UUAPiQ

 Kiss

Interesting video from a YouTube channel I follow. Funny enough we’re at $6.5K today which is the key support level mentioned in the video, and let’s see if it breaks below this due to bot or institutional pressure or whatever and then hopefully bounces up as a False Breakout like Alessio explained. I still think the long-term exponential growth line of BTC from 2011-2018 is intact, and that’s what I’ll be basing my investing on! Long live the King!



Say hello to the mods.
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June 14, 2018, 10:05:40 AM

The lower it gets, the more bitcoins will be removed from market by long term holders' buying spree.
I would use such opportunity for sure. if it should get below 4-3-2 or even 1k as some pple here predict, Id probably raid my entire bank account ant put it all into bitcoin. Cheesy


Oh god if it was to happen...
I would so fucking love to see this! That would be incredible!!!

But I don't think it will... You get more and more people saying it's crashing. Fact is that when everyone thinks it's going down the market can only go up because everyone is starting to buy to invest.
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June 14, 2018, 10:24:35 AM




allways listen to the schwarzenegger
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June 14, 2018, 10:32:04 AM

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June 14, 2018, 10:38:33 AM
Last edit: June 14, 2018, 10:50:28 AM by Torque
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I read through the Tether manipulation paper. IMO it made two convincing points:

#1 Someone has a habit of doing this:
 - Issuing new USDT
 - Within days, moving that USDT to BitFinex, Bittrex, and/or Poloniex
 - Using that USDT to buy crypto (seemingly a portfolio of BTC & others). They especially like to buy crypto when the price is just below whole numbers.
 - Moving the resulting crypto back to BitFinex
 - Rarely or never selling the crypto for USDT again
 
The authors argue that this is Tether/BitFinex themselves, and I think that this is in fact the most likely explanation. But the authors didn't address the alternative possibility of this being a particularly ham-fisted whale who is a close partner of Tether.

#2 Due to end-of-month trading, Tether has probably always been trading with USD deposited with them (fractional-reserve), though at least until March 2017, USDT was probably not complete monopoly money, since they did go to the effort of achieving an end-of-month USD balance.

The authors also tried to argue some other points which I didn't find convincing.

Meh, theymos I know you've been around this block before.

Notice when these so-called "in-depth analysis" FUD studies come out... never during a bull run, but always after a confirmed downtrend and usually near the bottom (e.g. Willybot report, anyone? I also distinctly remember another example in mid 2014 where some well known financial institution did some "in-depth analysis" to determine the true fair market price of bitcoin forever : $1100  Tongue  Roll Eyes).

It's not the content that is suspect. It's the timing. These "studies" are designed to do one thing, and that is to keep Average Joe sidelined at the precise time he should be accumulating.
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June 14, 2018, 10:47:42 AM


via @qew

cheers luv it, needs a repost
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June 14, 2018, 10:50:13 AM

I read through the Tether manipulation paper. IMO it made two convincing points:

#1 Someone has a habit of doing this:
 - Issuing new USDT
 - Within days, moving that USDT to BitFinex, Bittrex, and/or Poloniex
 - Using that USDT to buy crypto (seemingly a portfolio of BTC & others). They especially like to buy crypto when the price is just below whole numbers.
 - Moving the resulting crypto back to BitFinex
 - Rarely or never selling the crypto for USDT again
 
The authors argue that this is Tether/BitFinex themselves, and I think that this is in fact the most likely explanation. But the authors didn't address the alternative possibility of this being a particularly ham-fisted whale who is a close partner of Tether.

#2 Due to end-of-month trading, Tether has probably always been trading with USD deposited with them (fractional-reserve), though at least until March 2017, USDT was probably not complete monopoly money, since they did go to the effort of achieving an end-of-month USD balance.

The authors also tried to argue some other points which I didn't find convincing.

Meh, theymos I know you've been around this block before.

Notice when these so-called "in-depth analysis" FUD studies come out... never during a bull run, but always after a confirmed downtrend and usually near the bottom (e.g. Willybot report, anyone? I also remember another example in 2014 where some financial institution did some "in-depth analysis" to determine the true fair market price of bitcoin forever : $1100  Tongue  Roll Eyes).

It's not the content that is suspect. It's the timing. These "studies" are designed to do one thing, and that is to keep Average Joe sidelined at the precise time he should be accumulating.

Yeah news everywhere

1) Bitcoin was manipulated with last highs

2) Tether

3) Bitcoin Illegal

All this news at once, nothing for weeks and boom

coordinated effort put fear in market


lets see how effective it is



it also shows desperate phase, they bringing the big guns out now because nothing else working

says volumes
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June 14, 2018, 10:56:46 AM

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June 14, 2018, 10:58:02 AM

I will just leave this here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdOt7UUAPiQ

 Kiss

He is basically saying;

"The next 24 hours are critical and if it doesn't go below from this point it's going to go up."

Very insightful. He also added;

"If you don't pay attention to my TA, you are a gambler."
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June 14, 2018, 11:33:42 AM

it also shows desperate phase, they bringing the big guns out now because nothing else working

says volumes

Yep.

Also, the whales have to keep up the pressure to dump and short. Because they know that once the technicals turn upward for good, the thousands of trading bots take over and the start of a new bull run gets solidified. Then other long investors and traders start coming back in. They lose a bit of control over the float and the direction of the market at that point.
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Aint nobody got time for that


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June 14, 2018, 11:37:33 AM



I sold bits and pieces. Not enough that I'm not a mountain of regret. TBH

Don't forget at that convenient time everyone could have been rich. Their funds were also all tied up in KYC.


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