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Question: Will we close Nov. at or above Plan B's posited minimum of $98K?
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25496005 times)
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TReano
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June 28, 2018, 12:13:04 AM

bitcoin weekly chart shows bullish sign , according to me before 1st week of july we will see uptrend in market . However cant say upto which level it will lasts bcoz it is not as strong as last year bull run . back to back 3rd dip of $6k have created more panic , need to break resistance soon .


never call the end of a trend.

Rule Nr. 2 of the divine trading bible.
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kurious
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June 28, 2018, 12:20:11 AM

It's a catch 22 kurious.

You create some structure to contain the beast and within a couple generations the barons you sought to rein in will have seized those very reins and turned the tools you created against you.

I am not saying we would have a better time in anarchy, but at least the asshole with his boot on your head would not be able to clothe his actions in the pretty lies of the state.

I don't disagree with a word you said.

I am not an anarchist, but I am naturally wary of anyone telling me what I can, and cannot do. 
I also don't like out and out fascists, so I think in the Spanish civil war, I would probably have fought with the anarchists against Franco Wink

I guess I am a libertarian in may respects, but OTOH I do want some order and fairness in the society I live in - including the freedom to associate, do as I please if it doesn't hurt anyone else and to own things personally without anyone more powerful being free to take them without me having the right of redress.  I think - while these concepts are difficult to balance - they are not totally incompatible.

But hey - I was just probably asking for trouble.  You get all sorts on here, right?  I'd better stay off politics...
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June 28, 2018, 01:02:57 AM

All the major corps have huge tax avoidance schemes, most of their profits are in tax havens while they destroy ordinary people's jobs and force them into welfsre while the people in the middle have to pay for. It doesn't sit well with me, that's all.  I don't want to pay more taxes, but the tax take is so reduced because the large corps and rich do not pay theirs - that I have to.

If there are places with lower taxes for these corporations to flow to...why is doesn't the US just compete and provide the same low taxes for everyone to flow to?

Whenever I say we should end taxes all I hear is "what about the roads!?!". Then I hear, "corporations are being big meanies by moving to places with no taxes". To which I say...we should end taxes.

The love of government roads (aka the very thing that causes millions of deaths each year) runs deep.
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June 28, 2018, 01:11:41 AM
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Did a quick and nasty chart to see how things would look if the pattern repeated 2013-2015.

If the worst is that we hit a low of $4k and we're back at new highs next year then it's not that bad at all.

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June 28, 2018, 01:19:34 AM

so perhaps the fees could stay relatively low for 10 or 20 more years, but likely as BTC adoption increases, fees are likely to naturally go up, too...

The collapse of the West (and Latin America) with Asia taking the crown as the financial capital of the world will be complete by the end of 2032 according to the third occurrence of the sixth 309.6 year wave of humanity since recorded antiquity.

O.k. fair enough... something like this might happen, but seems far from a given to be projecting world-wide societal dynamics for more than 10 years into the future that have so many variables (known unknowns and unknown unknowns).

Thus (Satoshi not Core) Bitcoin will have already attained $21 trillion market cap and fulfilled its intended role as the next international reserve currency to replace the USA dollar.

What the fuck are you talking about Satoshi bitcoin?  There is no fucking such thing.  Are you talking about bcash?

Regarding a "Satoshi's original vision" talking point, Bitcoin conforms with that 100%.  Bitcoin is a evolving product that has come to its current status through math and consensus.  So the Bitcoin that is currently available is sufficiently compliant with "Satoshi's visoin."  If you think that there is some other course, such as Bcash, then go the fuck and play around with Bcash, instead of spreading nonsensical misleading ideas here that suggest that somehow Bitcoin is less than compliant with some vague concept of "Satoshi's vision" that you seem to be espousing.

So you can expect that (Satoshi not Core) Bitcoin will be only for $billionaires by then with $50,000 transaction fees. But that is what is necessary for our BTC to go to $1 million.

Again I don't understand what the fuck you are talking about.. because now you seem to be suggesting that you will have to be a billionaire to be able to use bitcoin by 2032?  sounds like nonsense to me.  Have you heard of segregated witness that facilitates the development of second layer solutions, such as lightning network?   The combination of on-chain and off-chain solutions, and various developments in that direction will likely negate your suggestions that bitcoin is evolving into elitism.


If you have such a compelling vision, then why can't you present such vision more clearly, and perhaps create one thread with an OP, and perhaps some folks will begin to understand your prognostication, to the extent that it matters.    At this time, I cannot bring myself to read through your various linked posts, if you cannot even provide a more clear elevator pitch than you had so far presented in your above response.

If you can boil down your main points a bit better instead of throwing around inflammatory drama, then maybe I could bring myself to read further into your ideas, if there is any value there beyond your seeming desire to promote the supposed wizardry of yourself.

so perhaps the fees could stay relatively low for 10 or 20 more years, but likely as BTC adoption increases, fees are likely to naturally go up, too...

The collapse of the West (and Latin America) with Asia taking the crown as the financial capital of the world will be complete by the end of 2032 according to the third occurrence of the sixth 309.6 year wave of humanity since recorded antiquity.

Thus (Satoshi not Core) Bitcoin will have already attained $21 trillion market cap and fulfilled its intended role as the next international reserve currency to replace the USA dollar.

So you can expect that (Satoshi not Core) Bitcoin will be only for $billionaires by then with $50,000 transaction fees. But that is what is necessary for our BTC to go to $1 million.

The details for my thesis are here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg40924436#msg40924436 <--- main one

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4433000.msg40989255#msg40989255

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4416188.msg40948767#msg40948767
Okay, but can you explain it in less than twenty thousand words?

Someone once said that if you can't explain something in a simple way then you don't understand it. I recently explained how the cultural cycle Glubb identified interacts with the r/K theory as it pertains to humans in a single post. Both of which are things most people have never even heard about. Your turn.

O.k.  Ibian.. this is more or less what I was trying to say... so I agree that you said it better (except I am not sure whether you actually accomplished the r/K theory explanation in one post.. but whatever, I am not inviting you into posting more WO thread irrelevance)... 
JayJuanGee
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June 28, 2018, 01:37:20 AM

bitcoin weekly chart shows bullish sign , according to me before 1st week of july we will see uptrend in market . However cant say upto which level it will lasts bcoz it is not as strong as last year bull run . back to back 3rd dip of $6k have created more panic , need to break resistance soon .


O.k.. I will bite.

Where are you suggesting resistance?  Maybe $6,300?  $6,900?  $7,500?  $8,800 and/or $9,999?

Can we rest assured at some level?  Let's say prices go springing back into a $8k to $9,500 range, would that be more comfortable?

What happens if we do not break resistance?  Does support become more vulnerable?  Or do you believe it is possible that BTC prices could float around "stably" in a $5,800 to $7k range?

What is a more detailed description of your assessment of the current price dynamics (movements) in bitcoin?
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June 28, 2018, 01:42:05 AM

Did a quick and nasty chart to see how things would look if the pattern repeated 2013-2015.

If the worst is that we hit a low of $4k and we're back at new highs next year then it's not that bad at all.



I’m thinking the low point will be around Feb - August 2019.  So really just another 12 months to run.
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June 28, 2018, 01:57:36 AM
Last edit: June 28, 2018, 02:12:00 AM by TERA2



Here are the two charts actually on the exact same time scale. I'd say we are closer to point A than to point B, especially if the bear markets are getting longer. We all know though that the reality of the situation is it's not going to repeat itself and something brand new is going to happen.

LIKE THIS



JUST KIDDING
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June 28, 2018, 02:15:34 AM
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Well, if we're destined to spend another year together we ought to really try to make something of it this time around. Maybe we should try to solve some longstanding math problems. The Yang–Mills existence and mass gap seems straight-forward enough, and there's a prize. Smiley
JayJuanGee
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June 28, 2018, 02:22:23 AM

Did a quick and nasty chart to see how things would look if the pattern repeated 2013-2015.

If the worst is that we hit a low of $4k and we're back at new highs next year then it's not that bad at all.




Currently, that potential scenario is looking plausible and reasonable - even though I have been thinking that BTC was not going to be in a 2014/15 scenario, but instead in a early 2013 scenario.. which would mean bouncing back sooner...   Either scenario does seem within reason, even though the 2014/15 scenario is seeming more plausible than it did a few months ago.
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June 28, 2018, 02:25:41 AM

Well, if we're destined to spend another year together we ought to really try to make something of it this time around. Maybe we should try to solve some longstanding math problems. The Yang–Mills existence and mass gap seems straight-forward enough, and there's a prize. Smiley

Maybe we should aim a bit lower.  We could crowd source a children's book. 
JayJuanGee
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June 28, 2018, 02:26:54 AM



Here are the two charts actually on the exact same time scale. I'd say we are closer to point A than to point B, especially if the bear markets are getting longer. We all know though that the reality of the situation is it's not going to repeat itself and something brand new is going to happen.

LIKE THIS



JUST KIDDING

I will concede that you got a chuckle out of me on that one, Tera, mood ruinin, beara.... and part of the humor, this time, has to do with bear scenarios being more reasonable than they were a few months ago, and seeming unlikelihood of the more bullish scenario of your last "just kidding" chart.   
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June 28, 2018, 02:36:02 AM
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Well, if we're destined to spend another year together we ought to really try to make something of it this time around. Maybe we should try to solve some longstanding math problems. The Yang–Mills existence and mass gap seems straight-forward enough, and there's a prize. Smiley

Maybe we should aim a bit lower.  We could crowd source a children's book. 

So, you are suggesting we shoot short people. And illustrate it for kids.

I don't think that's what I meant at all.
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June 28, 2018, 02:51:43 AM

Well, if we're destined to spend another year together we ought to really try to make something of it this time around. Maybe we should try to solve some longstanding math problems. The Yang–Mills existence and mass gap seems straight-forward enough, and there's a prize. Smiley

Not a bad idea. Certainly if we pool together all of our talents we can do something good for the world.

It may lessen the pain of having to watch my family live on spam and ramen for the next year.
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June 28, 2018, 03:00:04 AM

Ok. I will learn to steal groceries. Let's do this thing. Cool
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June 28, 2018, 03:23:09 AM

So, you are suggesting we shoot short people. And illustrate it for kids.

I don't think that's what I meant at all.

I've heard there's a silk road that helps with these sort of ideas.
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June 28, 2018, 03:34:10 AM

Ok. I will learn to steal groceries. Let's do this thing. Cool

Are we so poor now?

Damn, this is getting ugly too fast.
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June 28, 2018, 03:49:47 AM

All the major corps have huge tax avoidance schemes, most of their profits are in tax havens while they destroy ordinary people's jobs and force them into welfsre while the people in the middle have to pay for. It doesn't sit well with me, that's all.  I don't want to pay more taxes, but the tax take is so reduced because the large corps and rich do not pay theirs - that I have to.

If there are places with lower taxes for these corporations to flow to...why is doesn't the US just compete and provide the same low taxes for everyone to flow to?

Whenever I say we should end taxes all I hear is "what about the roads!?!". Then I hear, "corporations are being big meanies by moving to places with no taxes". To which I say...we should end taxes.

The love of government roads (aka the very thing that causes millions of deaths each year) runs deep.

Remove personal income tax

That is all
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June 28, 2018, 04:30:31 AM
Merited by bitebits (1), El duderino_ (1)

Did a quick and nasty chart to see how things would look if the pattern repeated 2013-2015.

If the worst is that we hit a low of $4k and we're back at new highs next year then it's not that bad at all.



The main problem I have with all these 2013-2015 comparisons is that they provide the perfect bear food; they become self-fulfilling prophecy, opium for the masses, for no other reason than they half-assed sorta-kinda match a trend we saw years ago, under completely different circumstances.

I'm as guilty as anyone for seeking patterns in the knucklebones and chicken guts; however, shorters and manipulators are using this to great advantage, because every little dump they prescribe has all the sheeples and lemmings running after them with sky-is-falling syndrome, pointing to the holy charts as evidence that Satoshi has indeed forsaken them, exactly as written in 2013-2015 scripture.

By mid 2015, nothing historical could any longer predict the future, until finally the great 2015-2017 bull run took off on its own fundamental and speculative merits, charting brand new territory, all the way from $200 to $20,000.

Not until we break free of the soothsaying charters comparing the future to the past, will present-day fundamental analysis and actual technical development once again take control of the market.

Whether it takes a dump to $4k or a break for $8k to finally shake free of these medieval shackles is anybody's guess, but charters and manipulators definitely seem to be winning the holy war at the moment.

It really boggles the mind that even the monumental Mt Gox civil rehabilitation announcement, the SEC declaring Bitcoin as not a security, and lightning network mainnet achievements are having nary an effect on this bear market.

We are truly a superstitious lot, despite all evidence to the contrary.
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June 28, 2018, 04:37:24 AM
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Are we so poor now?

Damn, this is getting ugly too fast.

Bar girls can't eat love.
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