Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Here's the 6-Day, 7-Day and 8-Day:  Note how close the Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI both are to bottoming out at the 0.0% level in all three (3) time frames.  In case you're wondering the relevance of the Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI bottoming out in the 6-Day, 7-Day and 8-Day time frames; it simply means we're getting VERY CLOSE TO REVERSAL.

So, those of you hoping for us going down to $4,500 or lower may be in for a rude awakening if you have not made entry yet.  My opinion...

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/P07Gk3YT-Wyckoff-Accumulation-Schematic-Chart-pasted-again-in-comments/

Thanks for that buddy, makes interesting reading. I hope you’re right, I never expected anything sub $5,000 myself. That’s a price which becomes close to a point where miners are not making profit any more.
If the price is subject to manipulation then sub $5,000 won’t be allowed & if so, very briefly.

A trend reversal would be a breath of fresh air to me, fingers crossed.

HODL on gentlemen.

[infofront]

Here's a great analysis: https://fewcoins.io/news/bitcoin-price-analysis-still-bleeding-2807
Includes lots of fundamental and technical analysis.

Does that really mean the bottom is not "in" yet?  And that BTC prices have decent chances to touch upon $5k and perhaps go below that?

Perhaps.  But we also have seen these kinds of doom and gloom predictions previously, and for some reason the sellers ran out of coins.

I am not saying that I know, but I could not see giving very much greater than 50/50 odds to such a downward scenario, even any kind of need or decent chance of touching $5k.  Maybe 55% would be reasonable?  Perhaps?

I'm with you, Jay.  Yes, it's "possible" to go down lower than previous low on Stamp set at $5,780.00.  That low went below the Selling Climax low in February set at $5,920.72 on BitStamp.  That drop below the lowest boundary of the trading range ($5,920.72) signaled the existence of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1 and not #2.  Which also signaled a STRONG possibility of a Spring (reversal to the upside) and a future TEST of the lower boundary of the trading range one more time before reversal is in the bag.  Even my indicators are showing bottom is near.  Where that bottom will be remains to be seen.

You may be interested in that link I posted. He also has us in a Wyckoff accumulation 1 pattern, but his counts are a little different.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Here's a great analysis: https://fewcoins.io/news/bitcoin-price-analysis-still-bleeding-2807
Includes lots of fundamental and technical analysis.

Does that really mean the bottom is not "in" yet?  And that BTC prices have decent chances to touch upon $5k and perhaps go below that?

Perhaps.  But we also have seen these kinds of doom and gloom predictions previously, and for some reason the sellers ran out of coins.

I am not saying that I know, but I could not see giving very much greater than 50/50 odds to such a downward scenario, even any kind of need or decent chance of touching $5k.  Maybe 55% would be reasonable?  Perhaps?

I'm with you, Jay.  Yes, it's "possible" to go down lower than previous low on Stamp set at $5,780.00.  That low went below the Selling Climax low in February set at $5,920.72 on BitStamp.  That drop below the lowest boundary of the trading range ($5,920.72) signaled the existence of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1 and not #2.  Which also signaled a STRONG possibility of a Spring (reversal to the upside) and a future TEST of the lower boundary of the trading range one more time before reversal is in the bag.  Even my indicators are showing bottom is near.  Where that bottom will be remains to be seen.

You may be interested in that link I posted. He also has us in a Wyckoff accumulation 1 pattern, but his counts are a little different.

Making my way through it now

[Last of the V8s]

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/investors-hold-onto-bitcoin-sentiment/



wtf only 10 years such weak hands

[Last of the V8s]

meanwhile, some volatility returned to the market. rejects everywhere.

[JayJuanGee]

..... I never expected anything sub $5,000 myself. That’s a price which becomes close to a point where miners are not making profit any more.
If the price is subject to manipulation then sub $5,000 won’t be allowed & if so, very briefly.

A trend reversal would be a breath of fresh air to me, fingers crossed.

HODL on gentlemen.

I understand that calculations about miner profits are somewhat variable based on electricity costs and efficiencies of the miner (including equipment and practices).  Furthermore, there are likely a considerable amount of miners variation in terms of how long they might be willing to ride out period of low profitability or non-profitability.  And, another variable is that as miners engage in behavior that is responsive to relatively low price, there could be a few reactions, one is the shutting off of mining equipment temporary or permanent or even some opposite game theory to purposefully attempt to ramp up the hashrate in order to attempt to wipe out competition.

I guess that I am responding in this way because even if we were to agree with your general presumption that $5k is the current approximate cost for mining a bitcoin, I don't think that it would be reasonable to rely merely on that factor to keep BTC prices up, even if it is merely a margin consideration.. In other words, momentum is momentum, if the momentum continues down and there is some perception by BIGGER players that they are going to be able to squeeze some more weak hands, then they might find considerable pressure to dump and to attempt to maintain below $5k prices to truly weed out some additional seeming froth that becomes more weedable at those seemingly unsustainably low and hope doesn't happen prices.

[Elwar]

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/investors-hold-onto-bitcoin-sentiment/



wtf only 10 years such weak hands

Nice to see that 49% are in for spending and changing the world.

Judging from reddit and forum posts it seemed like anyone coming in the past year was just in it for lambo and more fiat.

Here's to hoping that is true.

[Elwar]

Also, since everyone is throwing out conspiracy theories...here's one I cooked up.



CoInbAse



hmmm... ? ? ?

[mymenace]

Like a three pronged attack on bitcoin
How events unfolded in the disappearance of satoshi

1) Wikileaks exposes bitcoin (Scares the shit out of Satoshi)
2) Bruce Wagner tells the newspapers its Satoshi
3) Satoshi runs
4) Gavin Adreeesseennnn dicusses bitcoin whitepaper with CIA
5) Bitcoin gets attacked non stop even ongoing today

Why is Bitcoin so dangerous?

First ever block exposes 2 things
1) The theory of everything
2) 500000 bitcoin on hold can be used to create a new currency reserve

The framing of your ideas expressed in this last part are a bit unclear to me.... because I agree that there are a lot of things going on in bitcoin, but it seems to me that there is even more going on and other logical connections that you have not captured in your above attempt.

..."that there is even more going on and other logical connections that you have not captured in your above attempt."....

That is the correct question!

Fill in the blanks (More to add, a lot of resources)

1) Wikileaks exposes bitcoin (Scares the shit out of Satoshi)
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=3;sa=showPosts;start=0
Satoshis last page of posts reflect hurriedly handing bitcoin off to Gavin

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1735.msg26999#msg26999
Wikileaks thread on bitcoin being exposed

Basically, bring it on.  Let's encourage Wikileaks to use Bitcoins and I'm willing to face any risk or fallout from that act.

No, don't "bring it on".
The project needs to grow gradually so the software can be strengthened along the way.
I make this appeal to WikiLeaks not to try to use Bitcoin.  Bitcoin is a small beta community in its infancy.  You would not stand to get more than pocket change, and the heat you would bring would likely destroy us at this stage.

2) Bruce Wagner tells the newspapers its Satoshi

MY LETTER TO THE AUTHOR OF THE ARTICLE:   ( <keir@keirthomas.com>  author of   goo.gl/n0UQt )

I appreciate PC World finally doing an article about the most revolutionary and amazing new technology of the 21st Century so far --- Bitcoin.
However, this really is lazy journalism.
The article implies that Bitcoin was invented as a RESULT of Wikileaks troubles...  as sort of an altrernate SOLUTION to Wikileaks donation funding troubles.
That is NOT TRUE.
The truth is:  Most "Bitcoin.org Forum" members want no association with Wikileaks whatsoever.
The Creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi, has even made a public plea to Wikileaks NOT to accept donations via Bitcoin.
The truth is quite the opposite from the impression that this story leaves.
Most in the Bitcoin Community do NOT want Bitcoin to be associated with Wikileaks in any way.
Bruce Wagner New York City +1 646-580-0022 http://bitcoinme.com

3) Satoshi runs
    
Is Satoshi Alive? Thread
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2757.140



mewantsbitcoins
Full Member*** Activity: 126 Merit: 100 Posts: 917 View Profile Personal Message (Offline)
Re: Gavin will visit the CIA
28-04-2011, 07:59:08
   
This is a bad idea and gives me uneasy feeling
But I guess if Bitcoin is going to survive, it will have to go through it. Although, if you declined their offer, it would most probably delayed any action against bitcoin

Edit: and by reading satoshi's post I get the same feeling, that he wanted to keep bitcoin under the radar for as long as possible.


???What satoshi post - this is after satoshi left on the Last Active:    14-12-2010, 02:45:41

I didn't know this topic still came up, are people still looking for him? He is not dead, but he does like his privacy. 

4) Gavin Adreeesseennnn dicusses bitcoin whitepaper with CIA 28-04-2011, 05:00:26
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=6652.msg97181#msg97181
I want to get this out in the open because it is the kind of thing that will generate conspiracy theories:  I'm going to give a presentation about Bitcoin at CIA headquarters in June at an emerging technologies conference for the US intelligence community.


5) Bitcoin gets attacked non stop even ongoing today

Why is Bitcoin so dangerous?
First ever block exposes 2 things

1) The theory of everything
2) 500000 bitcoin on hold can be used to create a new currency reserve

[El duderino_]

first time i put in a pin code of ledger 3times wrong   

can be an idiot sometimes lol

good to know the restore words where correct .......... 

[Last of the V8s]

mewantsbitcoins
Full Member*** Activity: 126 Merit: 100 Posts: 917 View Profile Personal Message (Offline)
Re: Gavin will visit the CIA
28-04-2011, 07:59:08
   
This is a bad idea and gives me uneasy feeling
But I guess if Bitcoin is going to survive, it will have to go through it. Although, if you declined their offer, it would most probably delayed any action against bitcoin

Edit: and by reading satoshi's post I get the same feeling, that he wanted to keep bitcoin under the radar for as long as possible.


???What satoshi post - this is after satoshi left on the Last Active:    14-12-2010, 02:45:41

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=6652.msg97244#msg97244
I'd guess @mewantbitcoins typoed 'post' for 'posts'.

[Last of the V8s]

that poor guy got seriously goxxed in 2011
also participated (a bit) in this thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=27958.0 Worlds First Bitcoin Tattoo [NSFW]

[kurious]

Yeah, not sure why you all don't just put your money in traditional financial instruments and institutions. Not sure about this whole "cryptocurrency" thing. IDK. Just doesn't seem real.

General Electric should be the poster child for the whole corrupt "We're-doing-great-and-our-stock-is-flying-oh-shit-now-its-tanking" financial establishment. They'll all be doing great up until the day, the very minute they run out of money to buy back their own stock.

GE one month : "We're doing great! Earnings are up! Stock is up!"

GE the next month : "Oh shit, suddenly we're out of cash! Our debts exceed our free cash! We've been hiding our revenue losses with shady accounting and cooked books. Shit! Time to cut our stock and dividend in half. Get rid of the CEO! Jettison everything! Lay off thousands!"

Of course the executives are the only ones who get a golden parachute. Everyone else gets a pink slip.

So... Forgive me, Torque - but it begs this philosophical question:  Isn't this just unfettered capitalism in action?

Don't get me wrong, I am not trolling you or trying to catch you out.

But...  

We seem to be at the peak of a long era of 'laissez faire' rampant capitalism - which has just produced debt slavery for the world's masses and incredible wealth and power for the few.  Without any alternative competing systems to rein it all in since the 'victory' over communism and socialism, we simply seem to have completely accepted modern capitalism 'raw in tooth and claw'.

I actually agree with most of what you say here and basically it's obvious the current system is corrupt to the core - and on a simple, human level - yes, patently unfair.

So if it's not working for the common good - do we tear it all down, or are we just trying to make sure we are getting a slice of the pie?

Just wanting to be rich is 'joining them, not beating them'.  Wanting to change it requires new ideas, new heroes thinking of new ways - and people prepared to be part of the solution, not just wannabes who want to be part of the elite that cause the problem - with lambos to prove it.

Is parachutes for the rich and pink slips for the ordinary Joes ok?

Or not.

I am not pretending I have an answer to this and I am part of this system by default, but I would be interested in your thoughts

[Rosewater Foundation]

She got 200 BTC for it.

Those were the days.

[kurious]

Here's a great analysis: https://fewcoins.io/news/bitcoin-price-analysis-still-bleeding-2807
Includes lots of fundamental and technical analysis.

Great find and a good read. I will have to it read again in the morning to really take it in - but it's an interesting fresh take.

[Last of the V8s]

A million quid for a tattoo on your froufrou. I do hope she kept at least some of that.

[infofront]

I find it a little odd he asked so many personal questions in his first message.

HI SATOSHI I R PROGRAMMAR TOO
WHAT'S YOUR SOCIAL SECURITY NUMBER, FULL LEGAL NAME, DATE OF BIRTH, AND MOTHERS MAIDEN NAME?

BTW I HELP OUT THE CIA BUT IT'S TOTALLY COOL

[bitserve]

I find it a little odd he asked so many personal questions in his first message.

HI SATOSHI I R PROGRAMMAR TOO
WHAT'S YOUR SOCIAL SECURITY NUMBER, FULL LEGAL NAME, DATE OF BIRTH, AND MOTHERS MAIDEN NAME?

BTW I HELP OUT THE CIA BUT IT'S TOTALLY COOL

Well, if he was really on an assignment he wouldn't have been that straight in his first interaction... nor he would have used his real identity in this case.

Maybe the guy was just feeling lonely or something... I read it more like "Hi Satoshi, you are cool, me too, wanna be my new best friend?"

Odd yes... A bit gay too.

[jojo69]

[Last of the V8s]

I find it a little odd he asked so many personal questions in his first message.

HI SATOSHI I R PROGRAMMAR TOO
WHAT'S YOUR SOCIAL SECURITY NUMBER, FULL LEGAL NAME, DATE OF BIRTH, AND MOTHERS MAIDEN NAME?

BTW I HELP OUT THE CIA BUT IT'S TOTALLY COOL

Well, if he was really on an assignment he wouldn't have been that straight in his first interaction... nor he would have used his real identity in this case.

Maybe the guy was just feeling lonely or something... I read it more like "Hi Satoshi, you are cool, me too, wanna be my new best friend?"

A bit gay too.

Or ... he forged it 2 years later to show off to his new handlers that he was capable of double-bluffing the great satoshi.
Or ... as a warrant canary to us.
Or ... he's an idiot. A bit gay too.