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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26366804 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Majormax
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August 12, 2018, 01:07:22 PM

Apparently reddit does not like my humor (or lack thereof).

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/96mnhp/for_those_who_bought_bitcoin_to_get_rich_my/

downvotes galore

This is what worries me (apart of lack of humor or differences in humor perception): redditers are still bullish, very bullish.. too bullish. And not only redditers, but here in BCT too - no despair traces are visible en masse. No despair - no trend reversal, and I wonder how long this market can drop until people finally panic. I understand it is hard to shake out old Bitcoiners, but the new entrants should have already started to capitulate. But nope - even those who think Bitcoin will drop further, are setting 3K target, and expect moon then (in ~2 years). This particularly should mean the 3K bottom is to never happen - as too much people expect it. Bitcoin should either bounce noticeably higher or noticeably lower. Given the absence of despair now, I start to think it could go lower... which is highly undesirable scenario as I see it, as it will punch through weekly MA200 then, and also its will be disaster for miners and many crypto businesses.

But I am not really social media aware guy, and I may easily miss something. So... a question: did anyone see traces of mass panic in social media, enough to call it a mass sentiment..?

P.S. Please don't call me FUDder. Yes, I am not a bull now, and I miss TERA2 here, but I am just expressing my own concern, and will be genuinely interested in what people here think of this.

I agree with your analysis. From what I see around many, many different sources ( offline as well as online), there is a majority of bullishness.

Lots of price rise forecasts, mostly predicated on hope alone. Lots of anger directed at bearish forecasts.

Unfortunately then, price is stiil flowing down the river of hope, and it could take a long time and a big decline to change that.

I wish it wasn't so.
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Majormax
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August 12, 2018, 01:15:42 PM

There's doesn't need to be "mass panic". That's not a necessary requirement to determine whether the bottom has happened.

Mass panic selloff - despair - indifference - the time of low interest by general public, and active work by the core supporters -- then natural growth from inside, caused by the persistent work of real value creators, such as developers, adopters and promoters.
I believe before BTC can grow again, there should be new achievements to show, and more healthy community caring about fundamentals, not just price.
This is how I see normal way of resolving the consequences of the latest bubble.

I wonder how do you see the possible path? Do you really think BTC is ready for another rally in this situation now? Or you think it can go sideways long enough so new development matures and adoption kicks in?

IMO BTC is headed for another rally, maybe from a lower level (perhaps 5k) which will reach around 7.5k by October and fail.  The subsequent fall may get to 4k, but in best case could get to 3k, in which case you could call it 'Mass Panic' , and the low could be 'in'.

The worse case would be another low around 4k followed by a rally to near 6k (by February ??) and a continued fall after that, with another year of bear market from here.

As far as Development and Adoption goes, that will continue whilst price falls, and even better when a more stable low level is reached.. Ironically, there is less proper development in a strong bull phase, because everyone is distracted by easy money.

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August 12, 2018, 01:25:37 PM

No despair - no trend reversal
Science. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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August 12, 2018, 01:30:25 PM

[something something] easy money.
I'm in. Cool
Majormax
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August 12, 2018, 01:31:21 PM

No despair - no trend reversal
Science. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

/sarc off     ..    Agree  



In fact, responding to both your posts, I would say it's true that most ppl overthink this trading analysis... and they lose.

Just finding one or two very simple (seemingly over-simple) yet powerful drivers, and seeing price through those prisms, has a better chance of success.
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August 12, 2018, 01:33:03 PM

Apparently reddit does not like my humor (or lack thereof).

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/96mnhp/for_those_who_bought_bitcoin_to_get_rich_my/

downvotes galore

This is what worries me (apart of lack of humor or differences in humor perception): redditers are still bullish, very bullish.. too bullish. And not only redditers, but here in BCT too - no despair traces are visible en masse. No despair - no trend reversal, and I wonder how long this market can drop until people finally panic. I understand it is hard to shake out old Bitcoiners, but the new entrants should have already started to capitulate. But nope - even those who think Bitcoin will drop further, are setting 3K target, and expect moon then (in ~2 years). This particularly should mean the 3K bottom is to never happen - as too much people expect it. Bitcoin should either bounce noticeably higher or noticeably lower. Given the absence of despair now, I start to think it could go lower... which is highly undesirable scenario as I see it, as it will punch through weekly MA200 then, and also its will be disaster for miners and many crypto businesses.

But I am not really social media aware guy, and I may easily miss something. So... a question: did anyone see traces of mass panic in social media, enough to call it a mass sentiment..?

P.S. Please don't call me FUDder. Yes, I am not a bull now, and I miss TERA2 here, but I am just expressing my own concern, and will be genuinely interested in what people here think of this.

I agree with your analysis. From what I see around many, many different sources ( offline as well as online), there is a majority of bullishness.

Lots of price rise forecasts, mostly predicated on hope alone. Lots of anger directed at bearish forecasts.

Unfortunately then, price is stiil flowing down the river of hope, and it could take a long time and a big decline to change that.

I wish it wasn't so.

I really cant make sense of any of this?
So what we are saying that in order for the price to rise it has to go down first?
Why?
What if more people get in to bitcoin? Is the price going to go down?
Whats wrong with as demand goes up so will the price and if supply goes up then the price will decline?
Sometimes when I read this stuff it makes my brain hurt! So many double,double, double negatives! In the end everybody tries to second guess what everybody else is doing that we all end up tripping over ourselves.
If you can afford to wait then just Buy and HODL. Its worked out fine so far.
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August 12, 2018, 01:35:57 PM

Majormax
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August 12, 2018, 01:40:37 PM
Last edit: August 12, 2018, 02:29:08 PM by Majormax



  1.   I really cant make sense of any of this?


  2.  If you can afford to wait then just Buy and HODL. Its worked out fine so far.

1.  Most ppl can't get their head round it. It needs too much experience and analysis. The market moves in waves : each wave sets up the preconditions for the next.

2.  That is the best simple advice.


and 3. See my post just above,  re keeping it simple.


edit :

I just realised that worth adding a note on contrarian logic, for those that dont know :

Bull markets climb a 'Wall of Worry'

Bear markets flow down a 'River of Hope'


Thus sentiment is a contrary indicator.  The majority of sentiment does not change overnight, and a lot of 'work' is need to be done by time and price, before the herd changes its mind.

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August 12, 2018, 01:46:09 PM



 I've often wondered what the hodlers use to purchase these luxury cars?  If you're hodlin, wouldn't you still be driving a 1998 Ford Crown Vic P71?!  I must be doing it wrong.  Perhaps they are leveraging their ruggedly-handsome, good looks?
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August 12, 2018, 02:04:50 PM
Merited by bones261 (2), xhomerx10 (1), bitserve (1)



 I've often wondered what the hodlers use to purchase these luxury cars?  If you're hodlin, wouldn't you still be driving a 1998 Ford Crown Vic P71?!  I must be doing it wrong.  Perhaps they are leveraging their ruggedly-handsome, good looks?

You're only supposed to hodl until the top. We did it wrongly.
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August 12, 2018, 02:15:33 PM



 I've often wondered what the hodlers use to purchase these luxury cars?  If you're hodlin, wouldn't you still be driving a 1998 Ford Crown Vic P71?!  I must be doing it wrong.  Perhaps they are leveraging their ruggedly-handsome, good looks?

You're only supposed to hodl until the top. We did it wrongly.
if you hold you will get a good amount of money  Cheesy
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August 12, 2018, 02:40:09 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (1)

Part of it is poking fun at legacy finance folks that I've started seeing on reddit. Financial advisers that were so good at their jobs that they never saw how well Bitcoin would do. For some reason their government required certifications did not include looking into things outside of their bubble. And instead of recognizing a potential new technology, they attack it because they need to protect their old system (after all, they did invest a lot of time in those classes and certs).
Indeed. While in Vegas last week I ran into thousands of "Evolve" people at some sort of "financial management" get together. All wearing same shirts, all ready to pull out their cards to give you financial advice (seemed like a pyramid scam).

Funniest part was waiting by a rest room and talking to a guy about it. Offered me his card, I said no, he said "so you're not ready to make REAL MONEY".

I told him I invested in Bitcoin early on. He shut up. Real money (spit). I want real bitcoins.

Edit: I just looked them up and found it World Financial Group. Basically a MLM scam. God I can call these frauds well.....
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August 12, 2018, 02:46:26 PM

Part of it is poking fun at legacy finance folks that I've started seeing on reddit. Financial advisers that were so good at their jobs that they never saw how well Bitcoin would do. For some reason their government required certifications did not include looking into things outside of their bubble. And instead of recognizing a potential new technology, they attack it because they need to protect their old system (after all, they did invest a lot of time in those classes and certs).
Indeed. While in Vegas last week I ran into thousands of "Evolve" people at some sort of "financial management" get together. All wearing same shirts, all ready to pull out their cards to give you financial advice (seemed like a pyramid scam).

Funniest part was waiting by a rest room and talking to a guy about it. Offered me his card, I said no, he said "so you're not ready to make REAL MONEY".

I told him I invested in Bitcoin early on. He shut up. Real money (spit). I want real bitcoins.

Edit: I just looked them up and found it World Financial Group. Basically a MLM scam. God I can call these frauds well.....

you get your devil worshiper haxXoR badge?   Cheesy   muuhahaaa
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August 12, 2018, 03:01:30 PM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)



 I've often wondered what the hodlers use to purchase these luxury cars?  If you're hodlin, wouldn't you still be driving a 1998 Ford Crown Vic P71?!  I must be doing it wrong.  Perhaps they are leveraging their ruggedly-handsome, good looks?

You're only supposed to hodl until the top. We did it wrongly.

 Then we'll start again and learn from our mistakes.  What's a good exit point this time?



original image by Victor Carapcea
https://www.facebook.com/karafoto.ro/
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August 12, 2018, 03:03:48 PM

This is what worries me (apart of lack of humor or differences in humor perception): redditers are still bullish, very bullish.. too bullish. And not only redditers, but here in BCT too - no despair traces are visible en masse. No despair - no trend reversal, and I wonder how long this market can drop until people finally panic. I understand it is hard to shake out old Bitcoiners, but the new entrants should have already started to capitulate. But nope - even those who think Bitcoin will drop further, are setting 3K target, and expect moon then (in ~2 years). This particularly should mean the 3K bottom is to never happen - as too much people expect it. Bitcoin should either bounce noticeably higher or noticeably lower. Given the absence of despair now, I start to think it could go lower... which is highly undesirable scenario as I see it, as it will punch through weekly MA200 then, and also its will be disaster for miners and many crypto businesses.

But I am not really social media aware guy, and I may easily miss something. So... a question: did anyone see traces of mass panic in social media, enough to call it a mass sentiment..?

P.S. Please don't call me FUDder. Yes, I am not a bull now, and I miss TERA2 here, but I am just expressing my own concern, and will be genuinely interested in what people here think of this.



How many times do we have to repeat that bitcoin is not a ordinary asset? That bitcoin exchanges are not the stock markets? That bitcoin is not a company, and not a product?

Bitcoin is a currency, and it is extremely disruptive, as it is not controlled by any nation-state.

This nocoiner mentality is depressing. You just see bitcoin as a vehicle, a tool, to make more fiat money.

You dont believe that, in the future, you could buy a house with a single bitcoin. And without the need to sell it in the first place.

Thats why people are not panicking, and you dont see massive panic sell. The guys from Wall Street were probably expecting it when they implemented futures markets for bitcoin, to drive the price down.
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August 12, 2018, 03:08:06 PM

...No despair - no trend reversal...

I have long said that we are entirely too sophisticated for our own good.
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August 12, 2018, 03:32:37 PM



 I've often wondered what the hodlers use to purchase these luxury cars?  If you're hodlin, wouldn't you still be driving a 1998 Ford Crown Vic P71?!  I must be doing it wrong.  Perhaps they are leveraging their ruggedly-handsome, good looks?

You're only supposed to hodl until the top. We did it wrongly.

 Then we'll start again and learn from our mistakes.  What's a good exit point this time?



original image by Victor Carapcea
https://www.facebook.com/karafoto.ro/

When iT Goes This time there Will be NO good exit point .....  Ethernal ATH’s
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August 12, 2018, 03:33:45 PM

you get your devil worshiper haxXoR badge?   Cheesy   muuhahaaa
Naah, just the capture the packet T shirt (I can still do it, cool!) and the Defcon badge (which I need to make hack bitcoin or something).

Overall a good week. Sex, Drugs, Booze, Lambos, Ferrari's, the whole nine yards. And I avoided the pyramid scams....

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August 12, 2018, 03:47:45 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (2)

Monero has its own problems.  The transaction fees hurt and supply is not fixed.

I do not want to go off topic into alt discussion in this thread so I invite you to post that in the monero thread so you can learn why you are wrong.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg43851970;topicseen#new

Tee hee hee

The post below explains that Bitmain is valuing its 1.02 million Bcash lol coins at their acquisitik cost and not at their market value.  That’s because Bitmain paid over twice what those Bcash lol coins are now worth.  Suckers.   No wonder they want to IPO - they are desperate to dump their Bcash lol bags.

The Bitmain IPO is just an attempt to do a massive Over The Counter sale of 1 million Bcash lol coins.  I wonder if any Chinese are dumb enough to fall for it.



This needs it's own thread, or is there one already?

Good link on this story

https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/bitmain-pre-ipo-investor-deck-reveals-huge-btc-for-bch-bitcoin-swap-are-they-going-broke-as-a-result/

Someone needs to get that bittconnect guy to make a video of himself yelling out Bitmain!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=64R918K-3L8

PSA: exchanges will start to wobble at under 6k. 1 or 2 self-hacks must be expected at times like that. Get your money off the exchanges as soon as you have done your business. Do not 'invest' more than you can afford to lose.



I'm on 6 months quit after over 40 years and this just gave me cravings like you wouldn't believe!

Don't post a rock with a BTC !!! Cheesy


The Monero and Bitcoin transaction fees are very close to each other. There is not practical difference, exept during the high volume times Bitcoin has had actually higher fees.
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/monero-transactionfees.html
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactionfees.html

Also, the Transaction fees of Monero will be decresed even more by 80-90% by the bulletproofs.
https://ethereumworldnews.com/monero-bulletproof-protocol/
https://getmonero.org/2017/12/07/Monero-Compatible-Bulletproofs.html

In addition The Tari Project which is a second layer protocol for Monero, will cut the transaction fees to fractions by Lightning Networks. It will also bring Atomic Swaps, Internal assets and much more for Monero.
https://www.tari.com/

The "not fixed" supply is not a problem at all. There is a fixed tail emission for Miners to have an incentive to mine. And because the tail emission is fixed, the emission in relation to existing supply will be decreasing. Also, the tail emission will be very low. 0,6XMR per 2 minutes block. That is only 432XMR per a day.
https://getmonero.org/resources/moneropedia/tail-emission.html

Also, the Tari Protocol will be merge Mined with Monero.

Lets not talk about Monero in this thread, even if a maximalist tries to spread misinformation. Just invite them to post their concerns in the correct thread. This is their thread after all and that should be respected.

This is what worries me (apart of lack of humor or differences in humor perception): redditers are still bullish, very bullish.. too bullish. And not only redditers, but here in BCT too - no despair traces are visible en masse. No despair - no trend reversal, and I wonder how long this market can drop until people finally panic. I understand it is hard to shake out old Bitcoiners, but the new entrants should have already started to capitulate. But nope - even those who think Bitcoin will drop further, are setting 3K target, and expect moon then (in ~2 years). This particularly should mean the 3K bottom is to never happen - as too much people expect it. Bitcoin should either bounce noticeably higher or noticeably lower. Given the absence of despair now, I start to think it could go lower... which is highly undesirable scenario as I see it, as it will punch through weekly MA200 then, and also its will be disaster for miners and many crypto businesses.

But I am not really social media aware guy, and I may easily miss something. So... a question: did anyone see traces of mass panic in social media, enough to call it a mass sentiment..?

P.S. Please don't call me FUDder. Yes, I am not a bull now, and I miss TERA2 here, but I am just expressing my own concern, and will be genuinely interested in what people here think of this.



How many times do we have to repeat that bitcoin is not a ordinary asset? That bitcoin exchanges are not the stock markets? That bitcoin is not a company, and not a product?

Bitcoin is a currency, and it is extremely disruptive, as it is not controlled by any nation-state.

This nocoiner mentality is depressing. You just see bitcoin as a vehicle, a tool, to make more fiat money.

You dont believe that, in the future, you could buy a house with a single bitcoin. And without the need to sell it in the first place.

Thats why people are not panicking, and you dont see massive panic sell. The guys from Wall Street were probably expecting it when they implemented futures markets for bitcoin, to drive the price down.


I would argue that it is more of a store of wealth these days than an actual currency. And it may be the best way to store value than all the others.

No-one (except those living off their stash) dips into their stash for the weekly groceries do they?


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August 12, 2018, 04:22:17 PM
Merited by Icygreen (1)

Bitcoin is a currency, and it is extremely disruptive, as it is not controlled by any nation-state.

You and many other are misled by the TPTB.

You and many other think that nation state is the enemy of the crypto. That is a miss conclusion. The enemy of the crypto is the TPTB.

You and many other also think, that there are plenty nation states. That is an illusion. There are just very few of such on this planet. And none of them are on the western world. The TPTB have enslaved almost all of them. By taking control of the FIAT. In United states that happened 1913. Now the TPTB is afraid for their FIAT to get rusty by the crypto, resulting to lose the control of the state, resulting to the rise of the people and to the rise of the nation state.

People, nation and nation state are not the enemy of the crypto. TPTB is the enemy of the crypto.

TPTB is the enemy of the human.
TPTB is the enemy of the nation.
TPTB is the enemy of the nation state.
TPTB is the enemy of the crypto.
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