Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LFC_Bitcoin]

This how i see August panning out.



It's just a guess, nothing more.

Get in the bin!

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[jonoiv]

Just like your guess on the list for highest price This year ..... around 7.5K or something
   

LOL

yer sorry, i got that one wrong.  but still made decent profit since 20k peak so im happy.

[Majormax]

That´s a bit easy isn't it?

Since bitcoin basically startet at 0 USD you can pick any number and see it as an uptrend.

Pick 5 USD for instance. If we move down to 5 USD tomorrow going from bitcoins inception we probably doubled each year.

So, the basic question again : Is BTC in an uptrend or a downtrend ?

Answer is simple :  Medium term (year or two) Downtrend  

Longterm  : Uptrend.  Support line here (open to interpretation) is around $2-3k


Trends *always* continue until the relevant support/resistance line is broken .


Probably any other analysis becomes over-complicated, unless you want to trade frequently, which is usually a sure way to lose.

[jonoiv]

Get in the bin!

Go on then, you fill in the blanks.  have your best guess.

[d_eddie]

Bitcoin is now in the back of *everyone's* mind. But currently they're all focused on other stuff.

What comes next is gonna be epic.

Agree, and that's why I see NYSE/Starbucks as fiat head honchos "counterattack" against bitcoin.
They are trying to put a middleman in the middle of bitcoin, especially when Microsoft, known for it's "embrace and extend" credo, is involved.

Granted, Microsoft has been able to "embrace and extend" (corrupt) several things in the past, but I think this time is different. It's not bloated/dangerous HTML mail, or an inferior browser, or a nosy operating system. It's something that looks very much like money. The user's own money. As long as bitcoin works as money, the users will be able to see through all the corporate nonsense - in the worst case, via some smarter friend's eyes.

- So you can't spend your Starbucks bitcoins at Amazon? Ah, it's your Microsoft wallet that won't let you. You know, I always instantly redeem all my credit through my own LN node, directly connected to Starbucks. Not my keys, not my money, that's what the geeks taught me...

How long before this awareness invades mainstream channels such as Facebook, and everyone and their dogs can see the light? How long can such a scam survive? The hypothetic MS/Starbucks/whatever cartel had better compete by adding real value to their service, like an advantage on exchange rate for funds kept/spent with them, or some kind of fidelity bonus for people who comply with their centralized agenda. That's why I think they could ultimately help more than hinder.

[JayJuanGee]

Think of it this way.  We are part of the way down wave 4.  Wave 4 is a fucking doozy that could last into 2019 but it also leads to the bottom of this bear cycle, in the desert of despair.  

2014 - 2015 wave cycle


2018 wave cycle to date


Wide shot showing both 2014 and 2018 cycles

Even if you show similar lines on charts, that does not mean similar things are going to happen.  Amirite?  Amirite?

[JayJuanGee]

With these super low prices we may need to shut down the blockchain.

Fortunately they released Satoshi's alert key.

Time to trigger the shutdown switch? Or might things turn around?

I'm scared.

Help.

Relax. The prices are still good. Rewind one year and $6000 seemed like moon. Charts mean little, because they can be interpreted any way you wish. I can feel the replay of 2014-15 in all the emotions, remembering clearly the daily twists and turns, and it is tracking closely.

Don't get scared until sub $3000. The bounce will be good, it just isn't near yet.

Alternatively don't watch for a year or so, it will be easier on your stress levels.

prognostications with such certainty is becoming more and more bold... scaring away all the hodlers into our cupboards... 

[El duderino_]

everyone is drawing lines on charts and sooner or later some will be right and be hero's of the moment ..... and will be totally wrong on the next line drawings they make   

let me just HODL and when there are oppertunitie's increase the BTC stack size , nothing more nothing less

offcourse be involved in a few shit coins but thats a part of the game 

[bones261]

Bitcoin is now in the back of *everyone's* mind. But currently they're all focused on other stuff.

What comes next is gonna be epic.

Agree, and that's why I see NYSE/Starbucks as fiat head honchos "counterattack" against bitcoin.
They are trying to put a middleman in the middle of bitcoin, especially when Microsoft, known for it's "embrace and extend" credo, is involved.

Granted, Microsoft has been able to "embrace and extend" (corrupt) several things in the past, but I think this time is different. It's not bloated/dangerous HTML mail, or an inferior browser, or a nosy operating system. It's something that looks very much like money. The user's own money. As long as bitcoin works as money, the users will be able to see through all the corporate nonsense - in the worst case, via some smarter friend's eyes.

- So you can't spend your Starbucks bitcoins at Amazon? Ah, it's your Microsoft wallet that won't let you. You know, I always instantly redeem all my credit through my own LN node, directly connected to Starbucks. Not my keys, not my money, that's what the geeks taught me...

How long before this awareness invades mainstream channels such as Facebook, and everyone and their dogs can see the light? How long can such a scam survive? The hypothetic MS/Starbucks/whatever cartel had better compete by adding real value to their service, like an advantage on exchange rate for funds kept/spent with them, or some kind of fidelity bonus for people who comply with their centralized agenda. That's why I think they could ultimately help more than hinder.

Maybe Microsoft will get into a partnership with John McAfee and create a brainwallet app for Windows. It will use the same password to generate your private keys that you use to log into Microsoft. They will make sure to make it more secure by sending you an email to the same account, with a code, so that you can sign your transactions.   Then, when you try to use any other wallet app besides Microsoft's groovy brainwallet,(including your hardware wallet), it will pop up a notice to upgrade. Until you have the time to figure out how to shut off the notice.  

[JayJuanGee]

Rewind one year and $6000 seemed like moon.

Just don't rewind 6 months ago. Make sure to cherry pick the right timeline.

Don't get scared until sub $3000.

$3000 is nonsense. Pass it on.

$3000 is nonsense but somehow I still want it to happen. (Even though I purchased shit ton above $7k levels.) $3000 would be a butchery no no genocide and I would even pay to watch it.





Of course I know It'll go back up and even surpass the December highs after a shitshow like this. That's why I'd like to watch it. I fucking saw it before and I had no bitcoins at that time. I want to experience the same thing you all did back in the day.

I don't understand what joy can be gotten by a bull to go through additional downward price movement after we already experienced 70% downward BTC price correction from $19,666 to $5,777?  The only way that it could be pleasurable to experience more correction is if you sold some already in preparation for the downward or you short... otherwise it is a bit torturous to watch the price go down.

I am not against considering that the BTC price could go down another 50% or more from our current price to bring our current BTC price correction over 85% from the top, but it is not necessary this time around.  Not only is such an extreme price correction not necessary, the current market may not be ready for such additional correction - despite the many bear proclamations that may merely be attempting to shake you from your coins. 

We can experience our 85% and greater correction at a later date.  There is no problem with that, and no reason that such further and additional correction might not take place at a later date.

[d_eddie]

We can experience our 85% and greater correction at a later date.  There is no problem with that, and no reason that such further and additional correction might not take place at a later date.

I will take the 85% drop from 250k to 37.5k like a man. No whining, I promise!

[bones261]

let me just HODL and when there are oppertunitie's increase the BTC stack size , nothing more nothing less

Some-time, mid-2022-ish, we should find some ludicrously overpriced private-location, and host a massive WO-party, only accessible by private jet.

Can you make it accessible only by helicopter? I'm sure there are some nice spots here in Colorado where you can make it a fabulous glamping trip. Or you could do it either early 2022 or late 2022 and make it a fantastic ski holiday.

[JayJuanGee]

With these super low prices we may need to shut down the blockchain.

Fortunately they released Satoshi's alert key.

Time to trigger the shutdown switch? Or might things turn around?

I'm scared.

Help.

Relax. The prices are still good. Rewind one year and $6000 seemed like moon. Charts mean, because they can be interpreted any way you wish. I can feel the replay of 2014-15 in all the emotions, remembering clearly the daily twists and turns, and it is tracking closely.

Don't get scared until sub $3000. The bounce will be good, it just isn't near yet.

Alternatively don't watch for a year or so, it will be easier on your stress levels.

LOL thats the most easy to say don't watch for a year  
but the NR1 most difficult to do ......... or go live on an island alone ?

just live with it and know thats its just the way it works..... but  think it is more of a joke if it is seriously meant.....

and yes spread some new cheap coins for hodlers that knows what to do with it, only fools selling right now  

I know right, what kind of an asshole sells at this price after seeing what’s possible (north of $19,000 last year).
I think if you need to make the huge profits ASAP then bitcoin is the wrong investment for you.

Personally, I accept that anyone who is in decent profits at $7k and perhaps bought under $1k would have the freedom to sell parts of his/her stash at any time.  Would have been better to sell at higher profits, but there is some flexibility there.

On the other hand, anyone who got into bitcoin after December 2017, might be a lot more distracted into the get rich quick scheme that is not coming out as plan.

Practically those folks should be HODLing through and having a plan to buy more coins as the price goes down (and if the price goes down).  There are ways to plan it out in a kind of systematic way to be able to ride out the wave and accumulate more coins and not to sell for lower than your purchase costs (plus fees and expenses).
 

If you zoom out & look at charts since the first block was mined it’s pretty obvious that over time the price of bitcoin goes in one direction & that’s upwards.

You are correct that we are likely to continue to see a similar pattern into the future, and amazingly, we still seem to have well below 1% of world adoption into bitcoin.... whoaza!!!

Seriously what is 2-3 years of waiting in a lifetime?

2-3 years is a decently low period of time to wait for any investment (even though it can seem like a long time while you are going through it).   Actually there are some tech bubble stocks from the early 2000s that took more than 15 years to recover... wow...

We’ll see $50,000 per coin around 6-12 months after the next halving. I’m fucking certain of it.

Surely decent odds, and surely nothing is guaranteed.. however, I understand that your certainty comes from the fact that there are really decent odds of such price rise happening, and given the last several exponential price curves, it is starting to seem as if $50k would be conservative.

Even though I also have decent certainty of another price rise, my approach remains fairly conservative, and I remain happy with our current price, or even going up slightly from here.  And, even $20k would be quite amazing for an appreciation of my already good lifestyle with current prices.  I do understand that some folks who bought in at higher prices cannot live so sanguinely, but like you said, the odds seem pretty favorable to continue to invest into bitcoin (at least don't be leveraging or taking your living expenses and invest only what you can afford to lose, and you will still be doing pretty great with bitcoin outperforming a large majority of any other place that you could put your extra money.  Oh, by the way, there is nothing wrong with living and eating kind of frugal during a relatively short investment period of 3-5 years, and in bitcoin (and some other investments) that can be considered delayed gratification that is likely to pay off handsomely down the road as long as you don't get too excited to cash out grandly and way too early). 

[JayJuanGee]

Rewind one year and $6000 seemed like moon.

Just don't rewind 6 months ago. Make sure to cherry pick the right timeline.

Don't get scared until sub $3000.

$3000 is nonsense. Pass it on.

It is even more optimistic to rewind 18 months (to $1000), and the uptrend is still showing as very strong. In fact take any price point more than 10 months ago.  My point is that the price can come back to sub $3000 without breaking the long term uptrend.

Looking back to the peak price is too discouraging.

That´s a bit easy isn't it?

Since bitcoin basically startet at 0 USD you can pick any number and see it as an uptrend.

Pick 5 USD for instance. If we move down to 5 USD tomorrow going from bitcoins inception we probably doubled each year.

Hm?  Maybe that is why we are so bullish about bitcoin?  It's a mirage.         

[JayJuanGee]

When I first heard of bitcoin price was in the $20s not long after it was at $266.

That's odd, because the absolute bottom after $266 was $45 on Stamp. Gox only made it to $50 iirc.

The selling panic during those few days was intense - more so than anything I've seen since. $100+ blew a lot of minds back then

You are misreading the sentence, yefi.

somac is saying that the price went from $20 to $266 and then to $7k 5 years later - even though you could read the sentence another way to say that bitcoin went to $20 not long after it was at $266 - but that second reading is not what somac is saying.

[jojo69]

let me just HODL and when there are oppertunitie's increase the BTC stack size , nothing more nothing less

Some-time, mid-2022-ish, we should find some ludicrously overpriced private-location, and host a massive WO-party, only accessible by private jet.

I'm in

[JayJuanGee]

If you think of the Nov-Dec rally as simply a beacon to the rest of the uninformed world (like "Hey, I'm Bitcoin, something you didn't even know about!) then it did its job.

Bitcoin is now in the back of *everyone's* mind. But currently they're all focused on other stuff.

What comes next is gonna be epic.

I'm really don't think Bitcoin being on the radar of the Middle class is really what we should be aiming for. The people in the top two tiers of this pyramid are who needs to be convinced. Unfortunately, most of them already made boatloads of wealth with the status quo. The only benefit of the middle and lower classes becoming involved in Bitcoin is for the rich to have more sardines to consume.

I am not sure if I understand the pyramid.

The way that I see it is that there is actual accumulated wealth and there is annual income.

Of course, if you accumulate more wealth then the accumulated wealth can provide a higher income, otherwise you are dependent upon others for providing your annual income.

Also, the more that you are able to live on resources that are below your annual income, then the more that you will be able to accumulate wealth and to therefore aspire to accumulate enough wealth in order to be able to have your assets support your lifestyle (and likely retaining some additional cushion, too).

The pyramid does not seem to be complete, and it seems to be depicting accumulated wealth without juxtaposing that with annual income, right?  Or am I missing something?

[El duderino_]

let me just HODL and when there are oppertunitie's increase the BTC stack size , nothing more nothing less

Some-time, mid-2022-ish, we should find some ludicrously overpriced private-location, and host a massive WO-party, only accessible by private jet.

I'm in

Me too  and if my girlfriend behave well she can come too 

[Biodom]

I am not sure if I understand the pyramid.

The way that I see it is that there is actual accumulated wealth and there is annual income.

Of course, if you accumulate more wealth then the accumulated wealth can provide a higher income, otherwise you are dependent upon others for providing your annual income.

Also, the more that you are able to live on resources that are below your annual income, then the more that you will be able to accumulate wealth and to therefore aspire to accumulate enough wealth in order to be able to have your assets support your lifestyle (and likely retaining some additional cushion, too).

The pyramid does not seem to be complete, and it seems to be depicting accumulated wealth without juxtaposing that with annual income, right?  Or am I missing something?

That's just liquid wealth (typically consisting of liquid assets not including main house equity) pyramid without taking income into consideration.
Source for the latest:
https://www.credit-suisse.com/corporate/en/articles/news-and-expertise/global-wealth-pyramid-decreased-base-201801.html

[JayJuanGee]

Just like your guess on the list for highest price This year ..... around 7.5K or something
  

LOL

yer sorry, i got that one wrong.  but still made decent profit 20k peak so im happy.

You are hardly convincing.

How could you be in a position to be making "decent profits" at any point in time if you are continuously  spewing bear scenarios?

If you attempt to live anywhere near your prophecies, then you are not going to have very much of your possible investment capital in bitcoin.  Therefore you are quite likely to be way under invested into bitcoin during times in which the exponential price increases take place.

As the old saying goes, "you gotta be in it to win it" and bitcoin has a relatively low number of real bull days during any particular calendar year.. even during bull years... so if you are nearly always preaching the bear scenario, then you are likely going to largely miss out on those bull days, when they do occur.