Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Searing]

Bitcoin back to where it was 27 days back:

What a waste of time.

Sheeit.

Aug 7th  2017  $3,638.38 usd seems the last year was but a 'dream'  but still better ....not sure what to think....currently $6,335.00 usd btc.

My view is NOW it will bounce below 5K in that even big miners (data halls) can't pow scrypt mine ANY crypto BTC or whatever at these prices and not be at a loss....thus

they have bankers to pay etc. So I expect a big dump of btc and crypto. Or at least what I've been told by a couple of owners of such.

The choice is pay off the debts/banks and any loans with crypto. If it all goes tulips and the folk pull their contracts for miners or you are under water..you at least salvage the building

and shut your stuff off (hopefully for now). I'm talking 200 -500 unit data halls. Hell, I doubt bitmain is even making $$$ at these prices over costs...at least for their stuff in the states.

so, with those folk, in HODL mode, due to revenue and that revenue goes away as folk shut down....again gonna be ugly yet I think

brad

OH MY FUCKING GOD.

Lots of doom and glom on the way.  Shit.  Holy shit.  

https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/08/08/fud-fueled-crypto-market-dumps-25-billion-in-24-hours/

We're 9.5% down in 24 hours?! Is that how much we fell? REALLY?!

Once again traders and hodlers have been suckered into the FUD frenzy and are selling out of crypto. It was hardly as if this decision wasn’t expected and nothing else has really changed in the ecosystem. Total market capitalization has plunged 9.5% on the day resulting in a loss of almost $25 billion. They are currently at their lowest point in 2018 which is just over $231 billion and the bear market is still in full effect.

Aren't you able to do your own math and assessment too?  Is 24 hours an important measurement?  Don't we need to look at both the UPs and the DOWNs and the context before we get worked up about whether 24 hours was a 7% or a 9% or a 20% drop?  

Furthermore, if we are attempting to time a little bit short term, then context becomes even more important to determine whether and how much we buy (or sell - which would be dumb) now or wait for the next price move before taking some kind of buy/sell action.  

Of course, my own portfolio has been in a dominantly buying situation since the price rise to $8,500 with my first buys occurring around $8k and so far down to $6,300 with my next buys set for a bit above $6k...   So if we look at the local top, and perhaps I am helping you out too much, then we might see shorter term significance coming from the period in which we came down from $8,500 to nearly $6,100, which is approaching a 30% drop - well 28.2% to be more specific.  

Anyhow, part of my point remains that any attempt to quibble with numbers provided by someone else (whether in an article or in a post) is to consider the context in which the numbers are presented and attempt to determine if that context is very relevant or if a different context would be more relevant (especially for your own considerations about either what to do or how to perceive the situation).

you are correct if BTC survives in the future...myself, I see it as going down more, with miners and data halls (big guys) now feeling the pinch. Sell some coin, keep the building/etc as a hedge, seems to be the game

now. Can't count on income and thus that would keep the banker at bay. But ugly. If BTC and crypto is not FUD'ed to death after all this, again IMHO, no ETF will be allowed with the price dump of from 18,000 usd to

now $6,358 or using these figures a dump of 64% from the bubble..in less than a year. They will use the too volatile argument and pass on all ETF's IMHO, well into 2020. This likely is the reason for the dump in price

people have lost all hope on ETF's.

So that is the choice indeed. Believe in BTC and crypto and ride it out with 1) what you have 2) with what you have and add to the stash 3) bail and sell

But, the lower the price the more the 'powers that be" gov't/regulation and just plain pushback from big money....the more likely we will lose even more ground ..under 5k IMHO.

So thems the breaks/ and bets now, the above 3 choices...crypto poker as it were....1) HODL 2) raise 3) fold.

A bit too pessimistic, but certainly an accurate depiction of some of the underlying dynamics, yet I still think that there is something about the alt coin dynamics too that is affecting this whole "shaking out" situation that you did not mention in your above post.  Could partly be an alt coin shake out, too, no?

I simply think that the ETF's will be 'strung out' over the next 2 years at best..before they come to fruitaion....

thus it is gonna be like 2014-2016 IMHO. A long 'slog'. There is NO reason for any bureaucrat to make an ETF under the present circumstances, with a 64% drop in value.

I HOPE it bounces back up to 6k from the above and stays there ...but again....the new window IMHO is gonna be 4k to 6k w/o any meaningful movement by institutional money

and no ETF ...no institutional money...no pump in price...so it really, really is a good time to 'buy' or it is just gonna meander sideways for 2 years.

Bitcoin has been there before and likely has returned.

Another point, I'm not entirely sure of ...I myself suspect sometime within the next 1-2 years a pretty major recesson..from my USA point of view...so the question becomes....is bitcoin and crypto

prices kept up by 'discretionary spending' ie people have extra cash..thus it goes into crypto and BTC? or will BTC act as a store of value in such a recession.. Again, myself I see this 'supposed'

recession my part as being around a 40% or more correction. (the normal view of a recession is a 20% pull back)

lots of crap ...being juggled...but just can't see any new money coming in, until more sensible regulation of some kind and/or ETF's ..I'd love to be wrong...but what I'm thinking

I'll likely HODL my BTC etc and burn my ALT's on the retirement...but, again...perhaps people should buy like hell, because even if it is a long haul to the next wave or crypto price rises and I'm 'supposedly'

correct....nothing is gonna happen till gov't and big money are comfortable...and again, they are not very damn comfortable without an ETF and with the 64% drop from the ATH of around 18k or so.

What I'm steeling myself for, in HODL mode anyway...As usual, like the rest of you, I really hope I'm full of shit...but damn if this does not seem to me like 2014-2016 with BTC and crypto.

brad

[1686442673]

1686442673

[Biodom]

One relevant conclusion: whatever you do, do not buy annuities and don't believe any pension numbers (of those that don't have a a reasonable COLA).

I think that now only assholes and fooled old men pay a pension tax. It would be infinitely good if there was an opportunity to return the taxes paid ...

Not sure if I get it, pal.
80% of educators have pension (in most states in USA) and NO social security.
You can't choose NOT to be in the system if you work at a public University/College, it is simply not allowed (you can only choose defined contribution or defined benefit).

[STT]

 Theres a consequence of a welfare state, there is no opt out because they dont want you as a liability later.   [Also it should be said those paying now are required as cash to feed old responsibilities, its not far from a ponzi which works if working population rises]   Same could be said of income tax itself, it used to be you were on your own in the extremes and really it was down to communities themselves to support each other.  However now anything and everything is a Federal responsibility with a cost to go with it.

I think we test 6600 upper before any further action especially.  Enough orders to only blip down to an older low and rise back.   This graph says a bit lower for the low in a trend but I would guess later and it test up first

[Elwar]

Theres a consequence of a welfare state, there is no opt out because they dont want you as a liability later.   [Also it should be said those paying now are required as cash to feed old responsibilities, its not far from a ponzi which works if working population rises]   Same could be said of income tax itself, it used to be you were on your own in the extremes and really it was down to communities themselves to support each other.  However now anything and everything is a Federal responsibility with a cost to go with it.

I think we test 6600 upper before any further action especially.  Enough orders to only blip down to an older low and rise back.   This graph says a bit lower for the low in a trend but I would guess later and it test up first

The key thing that keeps me bullish on bitcoin and makes me never want to buy dollars with my bitcoins is this:



and this:



Our defense budget, the third largest spending item, is just over $600 billion per year. Just the interest on our debt is about to surpass that.

What happens when the interest on our debt is higher than spending on anything else? Do we just raise taxes and pay it?

Can you see the politician that has the balls and stands up in front of the American people and says "we're raising your taxes. Not for new schools, roads, defense or infrastructure. We're raising it to pay for overspending in previous years. You won't see one benefit from the raised taxes. And more than likely it will actually have zero impact."

But how about this scenario: "Holy shit, that's a lot of debt. How about if we print the amount to cover the interest payments and use tax dollars for everything else. All in favor?"

Of course, what happens when the US government is printing over $600 billion in new money each year with a $3 trillion money supply? What about when that number reaches $1 trillion? 33% inflation rates year by year. Venezuela starts to happen.

Who wants to buy some of those debt based IOU dollars? Great rate at just $6300/BTC. Get them while you can.

[Phil_S]

[El duderino_]

All that said, if I had a Lambo I would gladly trade it in for bitcoins at 6k a coin. Couple of months buy it back with some bitcoin dust.

HODL.

if you don't have a lambo .... than just sell the car that you do have and buy the same 6K bitcoins .... and buy it back with the same BTC dust

 

[Hueristic]

All that said, if I had a Lambo I would gladly trade it in for bitcoins at 6k a coin. Couple of months buy it back with some bitcoin dust.

HODL.

if you don't have a lambo .... than just sell the car that you do have and buy the same 6K bitcoins .... and buy it back with the same BTC dust

 

But if you did that in January you would still be hitchhiking today.

This is why the rich get richer, they can hold during bear markets.

[El duderino_]

All that said, if I had a Lambo I would gladly trade it in for bitcoins at 6k a coin. Couple of months buy it back with some bitcoin dust.

HODL.

if you don't have a lambo .... than just sell the car that you do have and buy the same 6K bitcoins .... and buy it back with the same BTC dust

 

But if you did that in January you would still be hitchhiking today.

This is why the rich get richer, they can hold during bear markets.

[Last of the V8s]

newish twitter reason to fomo/clutch at straws/smoke the hopium: Bitmain IPO
https://twitter.com/Crypto_Bitlord/status/1027492680320802816

[bakasabo]

Does this means, that in the point where two orange lines crosses, this will be the bottom price for bitcoin and after that it will go up ?

[Micky25]

either this or the lower line will be adjusted down.

[El duderino_]

Does this means, that in the point where two orange lines crosses, this will be the bottom price for bitcoin and after that it will go up ?

Yes iT can’t be anything else its Just as simple as that ...................

[Phil_S]

Does this means, that in the point where two orange lines crosses, this will be the bottom price for bitcoin and after that it will go up ?

Hopefully, a bit earlier...



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wedge_pattern

[Hueristic]

Who the fuck would pay to listen to these Fucks?
You couldn't pay me to listen to them!

https://www.miningconf.org/

[vroom]

most accurate crypto forecast

[mymenace]

In this market I would be better off if i got scammed a total of 100btc


we certainly do not need any water


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Adgx9wt63NY

[El duderino_]

Does this means, that in the point where two orange lines crosses, this will be the bottom price for bitcoin and after that it will go up ?

Hopefully, a bit earlier...



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wedge_pattern

Everybody must know by know that a heatlty correction cough’s blood So Why be bothered by it..... 

[Phil_S]

most accurate crypto forecast

At this point, I'm mostly interested in August-September-October-November-December forecast.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

This feels like, I think it was around 2014 when we just kept on sliding downwards inbetween various dead cat bounces.

[Asrael999]

Bitmain and GMO will have to start manipulating the price upwards soon. We are getting close to the point $5,750 where an S9 doesn't even pay it's electricity costs (assuming 10c power), that will be killing their forward order book and bitmain have an IPO to sell.