Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[drays]

$250 move-up in 3 minutes.

I often notice the following pattern in the Bitcoin price: it's quite stable for hours to days, moving sideways, then suddenly it drops or shoots up in a more or less straight line. After that, it continues moving sideways.
How can that be? I can only think its being manipulated by some whale(s) keepingt he price stable until they need change. If there's a different explanation, I'd like to hear it.

Yep, quite distinctive pattern. It seems to be happening in this year's bear market mostly, I didn't notice it showing before.

whales this, whales that...meh

it's just the market

Exactly, more than likely just market buys and sells, probably on behalf of clients.

[...] How can that be?

Some sell and buy a lot more than others. Even when they use multiple exchanges, it does move the price quite a bit. Exchanges (thankfully) also run 24/7 but at some times of the day or days of the week the liquidity is less than ideal. Manipulation depend on what rules you follow. I do reasonably thrust (but never used) exchanges, as in not allowing buy orders without pony up the fiat and not allowing sell orders without having the coins, and also executing order books in the order of bid/ask price.

Also, there is always a bigger fish, so trying to manipulate the price when you think you are big may backfire when it turns out you are not.

If this is normal market behavior caused by bigger buys and sells, then this same behavior should be seen on other markets like stock markets or forex, right? Are there similar patterns visible? I am just asking genuine question, as I did not examine other assets' markets...

[jojo69]

If this is normal market behavior caused by bigger buys and sells, then this same behavior should be seen on other markets like stock markets or forex, right? Are there similar patterns visible? I am just asking genuine question, as I did not examine other assets' markets...

we are tiny compared to those markets

[Last of the V8s]

https://twitter.com/Excellion/status/1028426579158884352

According to the Bitmain pre-IPO investor deck, they sold most of their #Bitcoin for #Bcash. At $900/BCH, they've bled half a billion in the last 3 months. If Bitcoin Core devs didn't disclose the Bcash vulnerability, it could've wiped a billion dollars off their balance sheets.

[turtletime]

If this is normal market behavior caused by bigger buys and sells, then this same behavior should be seen on other markets like stock markets or forex, right? Are there similar patterns visible? I am just asking genuine question, as I did not examine other assets' markets...

we are tiny compared to those markets

Its even much smaller than the listed market cap of 100 bill.  Factor in all the lost bitcoins (millions) and satoshi's million bitcoins (I'm assuming he either trashed the keys or is dead) and the actual market cap is much smaller.

[HairyMaclairy]

https://twitter.com/Excellion/status/1028426579158884352

According to the Bitmain pre-IPO investor deck, they sold most of their #Bitcoin for #Bcash. At $900/BCH, they've bled half a billion in the last 3 months. If Bitcoin Core devs didn't disclose the Bcash vulnerability, it could've wiped a billion dollars off their balance sheets.

It is quite sad to learn that Jihan Wu and Roger Ver have sunk their battleship

[Last of the V8s]

Really quite sad.

[jojo69]

what makes no sense to me is that it was such an obvious loser from the get go, so...why??

I hate things I don't understand

[Last of the V8s]

Their handlers told them they could be in charge of crypto.

[HairyMaclairy]

[Syke]

Altcoins, tokens, blockchains...

... if bitcoin really takes off I can see lots of get-rich-quick imitators coming on the scene: gitcoin, nitcoin, witcoin, titcoin, shitcoin... Some of them are sure to attract users with promises like "Why use bitcoin, where you can only generate 50 bitcoins every few months? Use shitcoin instead, and you'll get 51 shitcoins every 2 minutes".

Of course the cheap imitators will disappear as quickly as those 1990s "internet currencies" like flooz and beenz, but lots of people will get burned along the way.

Note the date

He really called it on that very old quote!

[infofront]

what makes no sense to me is that it was such an obvious loser from the get go, so...why??

I hate things I don't understand

Pure hubris for Ver, with a side of stupidity.
Jihan had a nice hubris and greed casserole, sprinkled with illusory superiority.

A couple years ago, everyone was puffing up Jihan. "He's an expert in game theory," they said. Maybe he believed it.

[Last of the V8s]

Altcoins, tokens, blockchains...

... if bitcoin really takes off I can see lots of get-rich-quick imitators coming on the scene: gitcoin, nitcoin, witcoin, titcoin, shitcoin... Some of them are sure to attract users with promises like "Why use bitcoin, where you can only generate 50 bitcoins every few months? Use shitcoin instead, and you'll get 51 shitcoins every 2 minutes".

Of course the cheap imitators will disappear as quickly as those 1990s "internet currencies" like flooz and beenz, but lots of people will get burned along the way.

Note the date

He really called it on that very old quote!

The first couple of years on here that you guys created is fascinating to me.
I was taught a trick: go to a board and reverse the 'Last post' sorting. Learning a lot.
Do you know what happened to ribuck?

[jojo69]

The first couple of years on here that you guys created is fascinating to me.

probably a history PhD in that if you really wanted

[JayJuanGee]

$250 move-up in 3 minutes.

I often notice the following pattern in the Bitcoin price: it's quite stable for hours to days, moving sideways, then suddenly it drops or shoots up in a more or less straight line. After that, it continues moving sideways.
How can that be? I can only think its being manipulated by some whale(s) keepingt he price stable until they need change. If there's a different explanation, I'd like to hear it.

Yep, quite distinctive pattern. It seems to be happening in this year's bear market mostly, I didn't notice it showing before.

whales this, whales that...meh

it's just the market

Exactly, more than likely just market buys and sells, probably on behalf of clients.

[...] How can that be?

Some sell and buy a lot more than others. Even when they use multiple exchanges, it does move the price quite a bit. Exchanges (thankfully) also run 24/7 but at some times of the day or days of the week the liquidity is less than ideal. Manipulation depend on what rules you follow. I do reasonably thrust (but never used) exchanges, as in not allowing buy orders without pony up the fiat and not allowing sell orders without having the coins, and also executing order books in the order of bid/ask price.

Also, there is always a bigger fish, so trying to manipulate the price when you think you are big may backfire when it turns out you are not.

If this is normal market behavior caused by bigger buys and sells, then this same behavior should be seen on other markets like stock markets or forex, right? Are there similar patterns visible? I am just asking genuine question, as I did not examine other assets' markets...

The pattern has been dubbed as the bart simpson pattern or the upside down bart simpson pattern, depending on whether it is n shaped or u shaped.   No more knowledge is needed beyond knowing what to call it.        

[turtletime]

I wouldn't hate on Roger too much, he helped make bitcoin what it is today and was one of the first merchants to accept bitcoin as payment.

I'm heavily behind bitcoin but on the dark web now most sellers are only taking Monero and not BTC.

[smartcomet]

Vitalik Buterin Proposes a Consensus Algorithm That Requires Only 1% to Be Honest

https://twitter.com/VitalikButerin/status/1027972126593015809?s=20

I did NOT invent 99% fault tolerant consensus; Leslie Lamport did. I just wrote an explainer and adapted it to a blockchain context. Please fix, Trustnodes.

This has been known a long time; Leslie Lamport’s famous 1982 paper “The Byzantine Generals Problem” (link here) contains a description of the algorithm. The following will be my attempt to describe and reformulate the algorithm in a simplified form.

Does this mean 99% POW is useless?

[sirazimuth]

Don't let this distract you from the the fact that in 1966, Al Bundy scored four touchdowns in a single game while playing for the Polk High School Panthers in the 1966 city championship game versus Andrew Johnson High School, including the game-winning touchdown in the final seconds against his old nemesis, Bubba "Spare Tire" Dixon.

I was at that game... I shit you not!

[Elwar]

https://twitter.com/Excellion/status/1028426579158884352

According to the Bitmain pre-IPO investor deck, they sold most of their #Bitcoin for #Bcash. At $900/BCH, they've bled half a billion in the last 3 months. If Bitcoin Core devs didn't disclose the Bcash vulnerability, it could've wiped a billion dollars off their balance sheets.

As suspected, Bcash was being pumped.

I don't think the rest of their btc will be able to get bcash to a sellable value. Time to start pulling out the old wallets and get what I can.

[Elwar]

If anyone has some spare time I would love to see the trend of the price excluding these huge jumps and falls within minutes.

I think that would show the true sentiment of the market.

[mymenace]

I don't think that any of us can deny that it is mainly whales pushing the price up and pushing it down.
This really has nothing to do with typical sentiment of the average user or some sort of good or bad news. Other than the fact that the whales may believe that the market will not fight them in one move or another as they swing things back and forth.
The key being, which way do these whales want the price to go? Well they are certainly not in bitcoin because they read the white paper and were inspired. They have balance sheets that need big profits.
We will see. I really do wish Wall Street would stay out of bitcoin. Bitcoin can grow without it, and will likely be around long after it.

Isn't a rule of BTC price movement (or any market in that regard) that the whales will attempt to push the price in the direction of least resistance?  As lay persons, it is not always easy for us to assess, and probably even for whales they might perform a test pump or dump, and hope that others will follow that particular direction.

Isn't that what is called stop hunting?

Soon it will be called whale hunting -- decentralization

too many rich