Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[kurious]

double bottom pics please

well... we're waiting.

Where is V8 when you need him?

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[bones261]

So...

double bottom pics please

Will this do? 

[kurious]

Well, I guess in a bear market like this it's about all I could expect.

Blah blah... this thread isn't what it used to be... a double bottom used to be a thing... blah blah...

I think I will get my coat.

 

[Last of the V8s]

Where is V8 when you need him?

sorry busy studying bitcoin. it's quite the rabbit hole

[mymenace]

CBOE RESPONDS: After Delay Is Announced, Sources Confirm Continued Bitcoin ETF Confidence
https://theicojournal.com/cboe-responds-after-delay-is-announced-sources-confirm-continued-bitcoin-etf-confidence/

“Expected and the markets are acting irrationally to the announcement. Every single submission like this has gotten a delay. Again, expected. Still expect approval. 99% expectation. Print it, but as always, don’t use my name. ”

“Our team expected this delay, almost to the hour, and has been an expectation in our planning process. We won’t say when we expect an approval, but there has been specific speculation that we actually agree with and have incorporated into our timeline. We are in no way surprised by this. Most importantly, we believe our submission is the strongest yet to be put in front of US regulators, and believe that strength will be rewarded.”

“The four people I still talk to on the daily at the SEC are basically telling me this ‘it is going to get approved but we are going to make the markets understand that we dug really, really deep i.e. investor protection/transparency’. And that makes sense. The vast majority of the public still has no idea what ‘digital assets’ are or what it means. So when you do an approval like this, and the successive approvals that will follow in this asset class – think of the 3-5 year return number that will be associated with this market? And maybe that is the key to the Van Eck SolidX approval? It is set up as an accredited investor vehicle. That singular element is probably what gives so many of us a firm belief in its approval. And it is a stroke of genius by the Van Eck SolidX group.”

If you knew an approval were imminent, and you had the means, wouldn't you strive to drive the price down as much as possible in the months preceding?

What effect might an ETF approval have on Bitcoin dominance? Legitimize the entire asset class or single out Bitcoin?

One coin to rule them all, one coin to find them,
One coin to bring them all and in the darkness bind them?

It's a shame this arcane ETF approval process has basically throttled speculation, but it has done wonders for separating innovation from chaff.

What might a post-ETF world look like?

WEB 3.0 decentralization, the more it is used the more you dilute the centralization of everything

so many currencies, so many choices,

and bitcoin can regulate them all RSK

[kurious]

OK, I was not hoping for less of a Walmart version, more of a... Harrod's version

Apologies to our homo brothers... I see no point in apologising to the ladies here - we probably scared them off years ago.

[kurious]

Where is V8 when you need him?

sorry busy studying bitcoin. it's quite the rabbit hole

Sounds suspiciously off topic... Are you feeling ok? What's bitcoin anyway?

[Hueristic]

[JayJuanGee]

I think that your memes made your point pretty well, even though I disagree with the concept of shorting bitcoin, especially after it already experienced nearly a 30% dip within about 2 weeks. It neither seems to be a good personal strategy nor good for bitcoin... yet I understand that personal strategy might be the only one that matters to a lot of people who just want to make money, but even on that basis, it seems a bit of a gamble to bet on DOWN after a relatively fast correction.

 On the other hand, if someone had been betting on DOWN when the price went up 30% in almost the same amount of time, that would have seemed to like a more practical and realistic bet (even though I personally don't engage in any kind of margin trading of bitcoin).

Already 3 days on the fall play.And very successful. I know that there will be growth, but later. Now many people say that bitcoin has fallen heavily, what this is the end. But this is not so, year ago it was twice cheaper. It's just that people want great growth and eternal "that's moon", especially beginners. But this is impossible.

We don't disagree about the likelihood that bitcoin is going up in the long term.  I am just quibbling with any suggestions that it would be a good idea to short (or even sell bitcoin) after it has already made a nearly 30% correction.  Such play might work, but the odds for success do not seem great.

Why ever see btc Going from 6200 to 8000 and sell.... only super fools would sell ..... to gain what ?
And @ what risk or am i wrong ?

There are a few categories of people who engage in that kind of conduct or advocate doing that 1) price manipulators, 2) people who are emotional and likely ill-informed about their investment, 3) people who like to gamble, 4) rare people who have some kind of insider information and 5) there might be some other categories that I am not considering, at the moment.

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin back to where it was 27 days back:

What a waste of time.

Sheeit.

Aug 7th  2017  $3,638.38 usd seems the last year was but a 'dream'  but still better ....not sure what to think....currently $6,335.00 usd btc.

My view is NOW it will bounce below 5K in that even big miners (data halls) can't pow scrypt mine ANY crypto BTC or whatever at these prices and not be at a loss....thus

they have bankers to pay etc. So I expect a big dump of btc and crypto. Or at least what I've been told by a couple of owners of such.

The choice is pay off the debts/banks and any loans with crypto. If it all goes tulips and the folk pull their contracts for miners or you are under water..you at least salvage the building

and shut your stuff off (hopefully for now). I'm talking 200 -500 unit data halls. Hell, I doubt bitmain is even making $$$ at these prices over costs...at least for their stuff in the states.

so, with those folk, in HODL mode, due to revenue and that revenue goes away as folk shut down....again gonna be ugly yet I think

brad

OH MY FUCKING GOD.

Lots of doom and glom on the way.  Shit.  Holy shit.  

https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/08/08/fud-fueled-crypto-market-dumps-25-billion-in-24-hours/

We're 9.5% down in 24 hours?! Is that how much we fell? REALLY?!

Once again traders and hodlers have been suckered into the FUD frenzy and are selling out of crypto. It was hardly as if this decision wasn’t expected and nothing else has really changed in the ecosystem. Total market capitalization has plunged 9.5% on the day resulting in a loss of almost $25 billion. They are currently at their lowest point in 2018 which is just over $231 billion and the bear market is still in full effect.

Aren't you able to do your own math and assessment too?  Is 24 hours an important measurement?  Don't we need to look at both the UPs and the DOWNs and the context before we get worked up about whether 24 hours was a 7% or a 9% or a 20% drop?  

Furthermore, if we are attempting to time a little bit short term, then context becomes even more important to determine whether and how much we buy (or sell - which would be dumb) now or wait for the next price move before taking some kind of buy/sell action.  

Of course, my own portfolio has been in a dominantly buying situation since the price rise to $8,500 with my first buys occurring around $8k and so far down to $6,300 with my next buys set for a bit above $6k...   So if we look at the local top, and perhaps I am helping you out too much, then we might see shorter term significance coming from the period in which we came down from $8,500 to nearly $6,100, which is approaching a 30% drop - well 28.2% to be more specific.  

Anyhow, part of my point remains that any attempt to quibble with numbers provided by someone else (whether in an article or in a post) is to consider the context in which the numbers are presented and attempt to determine if that context is very relevant or if a different context would be more relevant (especially for your own considerations about either what to do or how to perceive the situation).

you are correct if BTC survives in the future...myself, I see it as going down more, with miners and data halls (big guys) now feeling the pinch. Sell some coin, keep the building/etc as a hedge, seems to be the game

now. Can't count on income and thus that would keep the banker at bay. But ugly. If BTC and crypto is not FUD'ed to death after all this, again IMHO, no ETF will be allowed with the price dump of from 18,000 usd to

now $6,358 or using these figures a dump of 64% from the bubble..in less than a year. They will use the too volatile argument and pass on all ETF's IMHO, well into 2020. This likely is the reason for the dump in price

people have lost all hope on ETF's.

So that is the choice indeed. Believe in BTC and crypto and ride it out with 1) what you have 2) with what you have and add to the stash 3) bail and sell

But, the lower the price the more the 'powers that be" gov't/regulation and just plain pushback from big money....the more likely we will lose even more ground ..under 5k IMHO.

So thems the breaks/ and bets now, the above 3 choices...crypto poker as it were....1) HODL 2) raise 3) fold.

A bit too pessimistic, but certainly an accurate depiction of some of the underlying dynamics, yet I still think that there is something about the alt coin dynamics too that is affecting this whole "shaking out" situation that you did not mention in your above post.  Could partly be an alt coin shake out, too, no?

I simply think that the ETF's will be 'strung out' over the next 2 years at best..before they come to fruitaion....

thus it is gonna be like 2014-2016 IMHO. A long 'slog'. There is NO reason for any bureaucrat to make an ETF under the present circumstances, with a 64% drop in value.

I HOPE it bounces back up to 6k from the above and stays there ...but again....the new window IMHO is gonna be 4k to 6k w/o any meaningful movement by institutional money

and no ETF ...no institutional money...no pump in price...so it really, really is a good time to 'buy' or it is just gonna meander sideways for 2 years.

Bitcoin has been there before and likely has returned.

Another point, I'm not entirely sure of ...I myself suspect sometime within the next 1-2 years a pretty major recesson..from my USA point of view...so the question becomes....is bitcoin and crypto

prices kept up by 'discretionary spending' ie people have extra cash..thus it goes into crypto and BTC? or will BTC act as a store of value in such a recession.. Again, myself I see this 'supposed'

recession my part as being around a 40% or more correction. (the normal view of a recession is a 20% pull back)

lots of crap ...being juggled...but just can't see any new money coming in, until more sensible regulation of some kind and/or ETF's ..I'd love to be wrong...but what I'm thinking

I'll likely HODL my BTC etc and burn my ALT's on the retirement...but, again...perhaps people should buy like hell, because even if it is a long haul to the next wave or crypto price rises and I'm 'supposedly'

correct....nothing is gonna happen till gov't and big money are comfortable...and again, they are not very damn comfortable without an ETF and with the 64% drop from the ATH of around 18k or so.

What I'm steeling myself for, in HODL mode anyway...As usual, like the rest of you, I really hope I'm full of shit...but damn if this does not seem to me like 2014-2016 with BTC and crypto.

brad

I cannot really disagree with anything that you are saying, but even given a lot of the various factors you point out, aren't you seeming to give a bit too much credit that anyone actually knows or anyone actually has a strong ability to keep bitcoin down.

Perhaps you and I really do not disagree about anything, but instead we are merely quibbling a bit about the ways in which we differently express what we are attempting to say. 

For example, I cannot really disagree with you about manipulation going on and the fact that there are powers that be (PTB) forces and whales who attempt to manipulate the price down and have goals to manipulate the price down.  However, sometimes there just comes momentum that is to difficult for them to keep down, and I think that we frequently witness this in bitcoin. 

Recent examples seem to be the powers that be, and bear whales would have loved to have kept bitcoin below $500 in early 2016 and even attempted again in late 2016 to push the price below $500, but they were not successful, and there was a certain loss of control that came with their inability to get the price to go below $500... similarly dynamics were in place to keep the price below $3k and seeming again a kind of battle to keep the prices below $10k... but these battles are going to be lost.. it is just a matter of when, and we cannot really know exactly how the price movements are going to play out and even their ability to take advantage of momentum and get some weaker hands to get shooken from their coins.

I guess my main point remains that loss of ability to keep the price down can happen at various unexpected points, and it may not even require 1 or 2 years to play out, but it is also reasonable that it could take some time to play out before there is another loss of control of the bearwhales and the powers that be... we cannot always make any kind of meaningful assessment until a bit after such loss of control has happened (and surely we can also have a sense that it is happening or that it has already happened, but we cannot always be sure about that, either, until looking at the matter much further down the road), so in that sense it can be quite difficult to make meaningful calls while we are in the process, even while each of us has differences in hunches based on our own life experiences, knowledge and even our emphasis (or deemphasis) of the importance of the relevancy of certain factors.

[lightfoot]

if you don't have a lambo .... than just sell the car that you do have and buy the same 6K bitcoins .... and buy it back with the same BTC dust

 

But if you did that in January you would still be hitchhiking today.

This is why the rich get richer, they can hold during bear markets.

What I need to do is get off my lazy butt and work again. For (devalued) bitcoins.

[4rt3m]

[Majormax]

This chart seems to suggest the bottom will be reached (around 70% lower from here = $1500) in mid 2019. That would not be good news.

I am inclined to agree with the timing, but I think (hope!) the price will not get below $2500

[bitserve]

https://medium.com/s/story/combat-tested-training-unwind-and-sleep-anywhere-in-120-seconds-27d5307b7606

Now just keep doing that for the next two/three years. Profit.

[slowlyslowly]

This chart seems to suggest the bottom will be reached (around 70% lower from here = $1500) in mid 2019. That would not be good news.

I am inclined to agree with the timing, but I think (hope!) the price will not get below $2500

Can you explain to me how you get to that figure from the chart ? I am not doubting you just don't see it .

[realr0ach]

I sat through a monetary policy and future-of-finance lecture a couple of months ago which touched on crypto.  The lecturer mostly knew his stuff on crypto but not in as much details as many of us here.

The #1 problem in craptocurrency is that 99% of people are trying to sell you something and will lie their asses off to try and make it happen, whether it's Eth, Bitcoin, or anything else.  So, it doesn't really matter what people "know", because they're just going to lie to you anyway.  Harry Dent "knows" a lot, yet he's a state funded actor to try and prevent people from using any monetary instrument except the US dollar, and is going to lie till the cows come home to try and accomplish that task.

The only truth about any of this shit comes from people who aren't trying to sell you something or attempting to make a career out of it.  Like when Buttalik said something obviously true, that bitcoin is nothing more than a 3 of 5 multisig, then he releases an even worse, more centralized coin two minutes later while partnering with Goldman Sachs to allow them to buy up and corner the premine, making it entirely a Goldman Pyramid scam and invalidating anything he ever said before.

Everyone also knows the perma-bulls like Marcus are completely full of shit.  He's never admitted to bitcoin having a single flaw at all and pretends it's some type of deity idiots should worship as a god.  Those people are just trying to pump and dump scam you.  The only people who are telling any type of truth about this crap are people like me, sometimes Peter Todd, sometimes FluffyPony, Smooth, *sometimes* people like Anonymint. Anonymint wants to make a career out of this nonsense and release his own coin, so he falls under the category of people trying to sell you something whether he will admit it or not.  

Then you have people like Luke Jr and Gmaxwell that are far too emotionally/career invested in this stuff and instead of just admitting it's not possible to create a decentralized digital currency, that this stuff is always designed to centralize, that everyone should boycott this garbage and go back to physical metals because bitcoin is only going to be a centralized system of control and enslavement, they just say nothing and pretend the unfixable problems are somehow going to fix themselves.  This is the standard god complex that every programmer has:  that there is no problem that can't be solved, shoddily hacked, or worked around.  Let me save you the time - it is not possible to create a decentralized digital currency.

[marcus_of_augustus]

bitcoin is currently undergoing it's last great accumulation phase ... so far we have had around 4 or 5 of these, depending on how you do the math on those crazy times when bitcoin was ripping from 0.1 cents to $32 ...   those were the real crazy days guys ... anyway back to the present we now have the largest financial entities on the planet, NYSE, Goldman, UBS, etc trying to figure out what their "bitcoin strategy" is going to be, and this is in the next 1 to 2 years max ... not 5-10 year, note this is a full 5-7 years after the cypherpunks suggested these guys needed to develop a bonafide bitcoin strategy or get left behind.

So the various fudsters, scam artists and goldbugs are trying to sell you something and keep you out of the greatest monetary revolution in 500 years are lining their pockets, telling lies and shilling for frauds, pyramids and ponzis, will always show up here to stop you filling your boots in this last great accumulation, like every other time the easily deceived millions have gotten left behind when the inevitable next adoption wave comes rolling over. The market forces swelling up beneath bitcoin valuations are unstoppable, like a tsunami coming ashore in ever greater tidal pressure waves, the financial incentives and energy behind bitcoin are vast, on global and intergenerational scales in space and time. Fighting against them is the ultimate in an exercise in futility and stupidity.

Once the largest financial pools of global capital are completed hedging themselves from monetary risks with the first true global currency, bitcoin, then the extreme volatility and large adoption waves phase will be over ... there just doesn't exist the capital on the planet to create such conditions again. Your children, grand-children or descendants for 5 generations will never see what you are witnessing in these times. Bitcoin value will keep climbing steadily after this last great run, and maybe volatile but once a large portion of global capital is engaged in bitcoin as a monetary instrument the times of massive gains and extreme volatility will be largely behind us (save for some contrived scares and mini-bubble hypes). Bitcoin value will then begin to come more attached to the underlying economic activity executed using the deflationary coin (all hodlers benefit from economic and technological advances in bitcoin-denominated businesses). Bitcoin's already impressive decentralised and robust nature will only increase after the great adoption waves are finally subsiding and mining will become more widely distributed globally and into smaller more distributed devices as the mining chip technology reaches state-of-the-art, commoditised, leading edge maturity.

This is your time people, fill your boots or doom your descendants to also ran status ( you should be able to pick some up all the way down to ~$2500 in the next 18 months with good timing and preparation, anywhere below $5k is a steaming hot buy and hodl). See you at $300k in 2025.

[Elwar]

This chart seems to suggest the bottom will be reached (around 70% lower from here = $1500) in mid 2019. That would not be good news.

I am inclined to agree with the timing, but I think (hope!) the price will not get below $2500

Perhaps you meant $15,000?

[xhomerx10]

[Searing]

Alas, at last years BTC prices...I could afford them. (ie...keep them in the lifestyle such 'trophy girlfriends' require.)
 

er NOW...not so much...can't afford the lifestyle of a female sales clerk at J.C. Penny.....


the universe is 'cruel'


alas...