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Question: Highest price we'll see in 2022:
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25524843 times)
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Elwar
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August 09, 2018, 01:05:40 AM

The takeaway here is that over the long term bitcoin will prevail even alt coins jump during bull runs. There will be less and large bull runs with adoption and thus BTC will trend toward 100% dominance.
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August 09, 2018, 02:00:38 AM
Last edit: August 09, 2018, 02:17:23 AM by Biodom
Merited by vapourminer (1), infofront (1), El duderino_ (1), Roccker (1)

Here is a short take on generations, inflation, btc and gold (with numbers)

Boomers, were born in 1946-1964, with 1955 in the middle of the cohort.
A massive generation (in numbers).
inflation spiked between 1973 and 1980 with 1980 max when interest rates on cash were around 14% (range of 18-25 years from boomer's medium, max at 25 years).
Gold maxed out 25 years after boomers mid (1980).

Millennials (also massive in numbers), were born in 1985-2004 with 1994-1995 in the middle of the cohort.
with each generation lifespan is increasing a bit, so maybe add 2-3 years to the timeline, therefore

Prediction:

Inflation would spike between 21-28 years from the millennial medium aka at around 2016-2023 with around 2023 longterm peak in interest rates (obviously interest rates are already rising since 2016, so it fits).
Instead of gold, millennials would hopefully choose bitcoin, which should peak around 2023 as well (100K, 500k, 1000K, hard to say).
Later projections are difficult because gold faded in the 80ies, yet bitcoin might have/should have staying power.


Cash (in short term bonds, re-investing every time at maturity)+btc is probably the best combo.

Stock market would at best go nowhere in the next 5-10 years if interest rates climb; why do you think E. Musk wants to go private? Because he can't borrow at reasonable rates and selling declining stock is a bad idea.

Same for the real estate. Crashes are possible.

At around 2023, I would convert some portion of btc to long term bonds, which should (at that point) give at least 10% yield, maybe more, would not even need to bother with the stock market.

One relevant conclusion: whatever you do, do not buy annuities and don't believe any pension numbers (of those that don't have a a reasonable COLA).
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August 09, 2018, 02:27:26 AM

I'm 100% behind this statement!

Funnily enough I just got off the phone to a pal who told me he knows someone who 'lost' 400 grand in Bitcoin and had a nervous breakdown. He couldn't tell me whether he sold or not.

If anyone got in expecting eternal gains then they're a fuckstick. There's lots of rich history of utter ruination to draw on now. If at this point you're taken totally by surprise by a grinding downturn then you clearly haven't read anything beyond the 'buy' on the buy button.


I am more in the HODL and HODL camp (since 2015) ...thus probably 'deluded' but 'deluded is how I roll' Smiley

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August 09, 2018, 02:30:40 AM

One relevant conclusion: whatever you do, do not buy annuities and don't believe any pension numbers (of those that don't have a a reasonable COLA).
I think that now only assholes and fooled old men pay a pension tax. It would be infinitely good if there was an opportunity to return the taxes paid ... Embarrassed
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August 09, 2018, 02:37:50 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Bitcoin back to where it was 27 days back:

What a waste of time.

Sheeit.

Aug 7th  2017  $3,638.38 usd seems the last year was but a 'dream'  but still better ....not sure what to think....currently $6,335.00 usd btc.

My view is NOW it will bounce below 5K in that even big miners (data halls) can't pow scrypt mine ANY crypto BTC or whatever at these prices and not be at a loss....thus

they have bankers to pay etc. So I expect a big dump of btc and crypto. Or at least what I've been told by a couple of owners of such.

The choice is pay off the debts/banks and any loans with crypto. If it all goes tulips and the folk pull their contracts for miners or you are under water..you at least salvage the building

and shut your stuff off (hopefully for now). I'm talking 200 -500 unit data halls. Hell, I doubt bitmain is even making $$$ at these prices over costs...at least for their stuff in the states.

so, with those folk, in HODL mode, due to revenue and that revenue goes away as folk shut down....again gonna be ugly yet I think

brad

OH MY FUCKING GOD.

Lots of doom and glom on the way.  Shit.  Holy shit.   Shocked

https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/08/08/fud-fueled-crypto-market-dumps-25-billion-in-24-hours/

We're 9.5% down in 24 hours?! Is that how much we fell? REALLY?!
Quote
Once again traders and hodlers have been suckered into the FUD frenzy and are selling out of crypto. It was hardly as if this decision wasn’t expected and nothing else has really changed in the ecosystem. Total market capitalization has plunged 9.5% on the day resulting in a loss of almost $25 billion. They are currently at their lowest point in 2018 which is just over $231 billion and the bear market is still in full effect.

Aren't you able to do your own math and assessment too?  Is 24 hours an important measurement?  Don't we need to look at both the UPs and the DOWNs and the context before we get worked up about whether 24 hours was a 7% or a 9% or a 20% drop?  

Furthermore, if we are attempting to time a little bit short term, then context becomes even more important to determine whether and how much we buy (or sell - which would be dumb) now or wait for the next price move before taking some kind of buy/sell action.  

Of course, my own portfolio has been in a dominantly buying situation since the price rise to $8,500 with my first buys occurring around $8k and so far down to $6,300 with my next buys set for a bit above $6k...   So if we look at the local top, and perhaps I am helping you out too much, then we might see shorter term significance coming from the period in which we came down from $8,500 to nearly $6,100, which is approaching a 30% drop - well 28.2% to be more specific.  

Anyhow, part of my point remains that any attempt to quibble with numbers provided by someone else (whether in an article or in a post) is to consider the context in which the numbers are presented and attempt to determine if that context is very relevant or if a different context would be more relevant (especially for your own considerations about either what to do or how to perceive the situation).

you are correct if BTC survives in the future...myself, I see it as going down more, with miners and data halls (big guys) now feeling the pinch. Sell some coin, keep the building/etc as a hedge, seems to be the game

now. Can't count on income and thus that would keep the banker at bay. But ugly. If BTC and crypto is not FUD'ed to death after all this, again IMHO, no ETF will be allowed with the price dump of from 18,000 usd to

now $6,358 or using these figures a dump of 64% from the bubble..in less than a year. They will use the too volatile argument and pass on all ETF's IMHO, well into 2020. This likely is the reason for the dump in price

people have lost all hope on ETF's.

So that is the choice indeed. Believe in BTC and crypto and ride it out with 1) what you have 2) with what you have and add to the stash 3) bail and sell

But, the lower the price the more the 'powers that be" gov't/regulation and just plain pushback from big money....the more likely we will lose even more ground ..under 5k IMHO.

So thems the breaks/ and bets now, the above 3 choices...crypto poker as it were....1) HODL 2) raise 3) fold.

A bit too pessimistic, but certainly an accurate depiction of some of the underlying dynamics, yet I still think that there is something about the alt coin dynamics too that is affecting this whole "shaking out" situation that you did not mention in your above post.  Could partly be an alt coin shake out, too, no?



I simply think that the ETF's will be 'strung out' over the next 2 years at best..before they come to fruitaion....

thus it is gonna be like 2014-2016 IMHO. A long 'slog'. There is NO reason for any bureaucrat to make an ETF under the present circumstances, with a 64% drop in value.

I HOPE it bounces back up to 6k from the above and stays there ...but again....the new window IMHO is gonna be 4k to 6k w/o any meaningful movement by institutional money

and no ETF ...no institutional money...no pump in price...so it really, really is a good time to 'buy' or it is just gonna meander sideways for 2 years.

Bitcoin has been there before and likely has returned.

Another point, I'm not entirely sure of ...I myself suspect sometime within the next 1-2 years a pretty major recesson..from my USA point of view...so the question becomes....is bitcoin and crypto

prices kept up by 'discretionary spending' ie people have extra cash..thus it goes into crypto and BTC? or will BTC act as a store of value in such a recession.. Again, myself I see this 'supposed'

recession my part as being around a 40% or more correction. (the normal view of a recession is a 20% pull back)

lots of crap ...being juggled...but just can't see any new money coming in, until more sensible regulation of some kind and/or ETF's ..I'd love to be wrong...but what I'm thinking

I'll likely HODL my BTC etc and burn my ALT's on the retirement...but, again...perhaps people should buy like hell, because even if it is a long haul to the next wave or crypto price rises and I'm 'supposedly'

correct....nothing is gonna happen till gov't and big money are comfortable...and again, they are not very damn comfortable without an ETF and with the 64% drop from the ATH of around 18k or so.

What I'm steeling myself for, in HODL mode anyway...As usual, like the rest of you, I really hope I'm full of shit...but damn if this does not seem to me like 2014-2016 with BTC and crypto. Sad

brad
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August 09, 2018, 02:47:27 AM

One relevant conclusion: whatever you do, do not buy annuities and don't believe any pension numbers (of those that don't have a a reasonable COLA).
I think that now only assholes and fooled old men pay a pension tax. It would be infinitely good if there was an opportunity to return the taxes paid ... Embarrassed

Not sure if I get it, pal.
80% of educators have pension (in most states in USA) and NO social security.
You can't choose NOT to be in the system if you work at a public University/College, it is simply not allowed (you can only choose defined contribution or defined benefit).
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August 09, 2018, 06:12:40 AM

 Theres a consequence of a welfare state, there is no opt out because they dont want you as a liability later.   [Also it should be said those paying now are required as cash to feed old responsibilities, its not far from a ponzi which works if working population rises]   Same could be said of income tax itself, it used to be you were on your own in the extremes and really it was down to communities themselves to support each other.  However now anything and everything is a Federal responsibility with a cost to go with it.

I think we test 6600 upper before any further action especially.  Enough orders to only blip down to an older low and rise back.   This graph says a bit lower for the low in a trend but I would guess later and it test up first
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August 09, 2018, 06:30:23 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)

Theres a consequence of a welfare state, there is no opt out because they dont want you as a liability later.   [Also it should be said those paying now are required as cash to feed old responsibilities, its not far from a ponzi which works if working population rises]   Same could be said of income tax itself, it used to be you were on your own in the extremes and really it was down to communities themselves to support each other.  However now anything and everything is a Federal responsibility with a cost to go with it.

I think we test 6600 upper before any further action especially.  Enough orders to only blip down to an older low and rise back.   This graph says a bit lower for the low in a trend but I would guess later and it test up first

The key thing that keeps me bullish on bitcoin and makes me never want to buy dollars with my bitcoins is this:



and this:



Our defense budget, the third largest spending item, is just over $600 billion per year. Just the interest on our debt is about to surpass that.

What happens when the interest on our debt is higher than spending on anything else? Do we just raise taxes and pay it?

Can you see the politician that has the balls and stands up in front of the American people and says "we're raising your taxes. Not for new schools, roads, defense or infrastructure. We're raising it to pay for overspending in previous years. You won't see one benefit from the raised taxes. And more than likely it will actually have zero impact."

But how about this scenario: "Holy shit, that's a lot of debt. How about if we print the amount to cover the interest payments and use tax dollars for everything else. All in favor?"

Of course, what happens when the US government is printing over $600 billion in new money each year with a $3 trillion money supply? What about when that number reaches $1 trillion? 33% inflation rates year by year. Venezuela starts to happen.

Who wants to buy some of those debt based IOU dollars? Great rate at just $6300/BTC. Get them while you can.
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August 09, 2018, 10:01:26 AM

All that said, if I had a Lambo I would gladly trade it in for bitcoins at 6k a coin. Couple of months buy it back with some bitcoin dust.

HODL.

if you don't have a lambo .... than just sell the car that you do have and buy the same 6K bitcoins .... and buy it back with the same BTC dust

 Roll Eyes
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August 09, 2018, 10:25:38 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

All that said, if I had a Lambo I would gladly trade it in for bitcoins at 6k a coin. Couple of months buy it back with some bitcoin dust.

HODL.

if you don't have a lambo .... than just sell the car that you do have and buy the same 6K bitcoins .... and buy it back with the same BTC dust

 Roll Eyes

But if you did that in January you would still be hitchhiking today. Smiley

This is why the rich get richer, they can hold during bear markets.
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August 09, 2018, 10:47:04 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1), BobLawblaw (1)

All that said, if I had a Lambo I would gladly trade it in for bitcoins at 6k a coin. Couple of months buy it back with some bitcoin dust.

HODL.

if you don't have a lambo .... than just sell the car that you do have and buy the same 6K bitcoins .... and buy it back with the same BTC dust

 Roll Eyes

But if you did that in January you would still be hitchhiking today. Smiley

This is why the rich get richer, they can hold during bear markets.

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August 09, 2018, 10:47:23 AM

newish twitter reason to fomo/clutch at straws/smoke the hopium: Bitmain IPO
https://twitter.com/Crypto_Bitlord/status/1027492680320802816
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August 09, 2018, 11:13:02 AM




Does this means, that in the point where two orange lines crosses, this will be the bottom price for bitcoin and after that it will go up ?

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August 09, 2018, 11:26:46 AM

either this or the lower line will be adjusted down.
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August 09, 2018, 11:31:36 AM




Does this means, that in the point where two orange lines crosses, this will be the bottom price for bitcoin and after that it will go up ?



Yes iT can’t be anything else its Just as simple as that ...................
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August 09, 2018, 11:46:08 AM

Does this means, that in the point where two orange lines crosses, this will be the bottom price for bitcoin and after that it will go up ?

Hopefully, a bit earlier...



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wedge_pattern
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August 09, 2018, 11:50:09 AM

Who the fuck would pay to listen to these Fucks?
You couldn't pay me to listen to them!

https://www.miningconf.org/
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August 09, 2018, 12:07:04 PM

most accurate crypto forecast

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August 09, 2018, 12:10:56 PM


In this market I would be better off if i got scammed a total of 100btc


we certainly do not need any water


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Adgx9wt63NY
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