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Question: Will we close Nov. at or above Plan B's posited minimum of $98K?
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25493881 times)
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Febo
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October 14, 2018, 02:53:17 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I appreciate your outlining of scenarios that you believe to be probable and most probable, but really it seems to me that you are not really accounting for the vast array of BTC price scenarios – even if you are attempting to stay in the middle of the road – and you are not putting your scenarios into a kind of probability range – which certainly each of us are going to frame these probabilities a bit differently.  Furthermore, it seems that even your optimistic scenario ends up with John McAfee eating his dick on TV.

I am going to attempt to elaborate on your scenarios by adding more scenarios and assigning probabilities to them.  By the way, I do agree with any premise that BTC’s performance in 6-7 years will partly depend upon how it performs in the next 2-3 years.

BTC’s price will be:  First column in 2-3 years    Second column in 6-7 years

Below $1k =             Less than 3%      Less than 1.5%
$1k to $3k =              8% to 12%              7% to 9%
$3k to $5k =             10% to 15%      8% to 12%
$5k to $10k =              10% to 15%      8% to 12%
$10k to $19k =              15% to 18%      12% to 15%
$19k to $30k =             15% to 18%      15% to 18%
$30k to $50k =             15% to 18%      15% to 18%
$50k to $100k =             12% to 15%      15% to 18%
$100k to $500k =              5% to 10%      10% to 15%
$500k to $1mill =              2% to 4%      10% to 15%
More than $1mill =             Less than 1%      Less than 5%

I’m kind of pulling the above estimates out of my ass (straight); however, my point still remains that each set of circumstances has probabilities, even though in the end, we are going to arrive at ONLY one spot once we get there.  Nonetheless, from our current perspective, we cannot rule out extremely bearish or extremely bullish scenarios, even though the probabilities seem to be on a kind of upwardly skewed bell curve.

In other words you believe the price will stay below 3K with probability 15% and below 5K with 30% probability for the next 3 years? I wouldn't give that much - 1-2% tops. The most important question is when the effect of mass adoption (including Wall Street companies) is about to happen? I don't think we are near that event. Not even close. So the price will continue to follow its previous pattern. For the last 4 years we had 100 fold increase between the lowest point and the ATH in 2017. It is logical that the same increase will happen in a similar time frame unless the mass adoption is near completition. But let's say that it goes much slower, say 1/4 of the speed of the previous pattern. In other words 6K->600k/4=150k is achievable price within 4 years. But let's say it is not highly probable. Then again, I think that 40K is absolutely normal price in the next 4 years.

I think he did not put much effort in exact %. He even said so.  But what bothers me most in such predictions. And also in predictions from both of you. About what price are you talking about. About the ATH, of the bottom or of the average? 2018 price could be $15000 or $6000 so far. That is quite a difference.
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October 14, 2018, 02:58:54 PM
Merited by Biodom (1), Searing (1)

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October 14, 2018, 03:07:47 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

For the last 4 years we had 100 fold increase between the lowest point and the ATH in 2017. It is logical that the same increase will happen in a similar time frame unless the mass adoption is near completition.

How can you assume that there will be a repeat of the 100x, but not assume that there will be a repeat of the 0.15x?

It'll quite possibly be neither btw.

Quote
In other words you believe the price will stay below 3K with probability 15% and below 5K with 30% probability for the next 3 years? I wouldn't give that much - 1-2% tops.

I don't believe he said price would stay under, just that it could be that price at point x. It's also 8-15% and 17-30% respectively.
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October 14, 2018, 03:10:39 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2), Raja_MBZ (1), BobLawblaw (1)



WAGESLAVES = buy bitcoin = financial independent = good sleep
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October 14, 2018, 03:33:18 PM



WAGESLAVES = buy bitcoin = financial independent = good sleep bad sleep, can't stop perusing over charts

fixed
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October 14, 2018, 03:35:35 PM

^
Good point
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October 14, 2018, 04:06:37 PM
Merited by Biodom (1)

12288$$$$

12/10/2018 IntroVert Sad
15/10/2018 explorer
18/10/2018 Searing
26/10/2018 kurious
09/11/2018 fabiorem
15/11/2018 bitserve
20/11/2018 Globb0
22/11/2018 Last of the V8s
01/12/2018 Alexander_Z
07/03/2019 CoinCube
15/04/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
20/06/2019 bitebits
13/12/2019 nikauforest
10/04/2020 yefi
05/09/2020 samson   
23/06/2021 fortune143             


and another falls off ........................ only 15 left on this one


Yep, I'm toaster city here soon! (Ack!). At least have the BTC price PUMP some, before I get dumped off the list. The price of BTC is so 'embarrassing' from

my dreams, when I made this bet! (alas, gone along with my supermodel trophy wife goal at 100k BTC...alas) Sad
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October 14, 2018, 04:12:41 PM



WAGESLAVES = buy bitcoin = financial independent = good sleep bad sleep, can't stop perusing over charts

fixed

Nope. HODLers don't care about charts!
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October 14, 2018, 04:23:24 PM



WAGESLAVES = buy bitcoin = financial independent = good sleep bad sleep, can't stop perusing over charts

fixed

Nope. HODLers don't care about charts!

Hodlers don’t, but starting wageslaves surely do care Roll Eyes
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October 14, 2018, 04:29:54 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)


my dreams, when I made this bet! (alas, gone along with my supermodel trophy wife goal at 100k BTC...alas) Sad

at 100K, 'trophy wife' coefficient is probably 1K btc, no less.
Alas, I might have been overestimating associated expenses.
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October 14, 2018, 04:38:54 PM

12288$$$$

12/10/2018 IntroVert Sad
15/10/2018 explorer
18/10/2018 Searing
26/10/2018 kurious
09/11/2018 fabiorem
15/11/2018 bitserve
20/11/2018 Globb0
22/11/2018 Last of the V8s
01/12/2018 Alexander_Z
07/03/2019 CoinCube
15/04/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
20/06/2019 bitebits
13/12/2019 nikauforest
10/04/2020 yefi
05/09/2020 samson   
23/06/2021 fortune143             


and another falls off ........................ only 15 left on this one


Yep, I'm toaster city here soon! (Ack!). At least have the BTC price PUMP some, before I get dumped off the list. The price of BTC is so 'embarrassing' from

my dreams, when I made this bet! (alas, gone along with my supermodel trophy wife goal at 100k BTC...alas) Sad
Probably gonna get toast .... BUT i wouldn’t mind a SUPER pump by your date Grin
And yes btc is embarrassing @the moment
Good for us hodlers that we know the future successes of BTC;D
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October 14, 2018, 04:44:03 PM

...One thing is fore sure , no alcohol till next weekend for damn sure .




So has there been a analysis of that dump? Looked like a liquidity check right? I find the Monero dump coinciding with it telling somehow but not exactly sure in what fashion. Feels like a Crypto attack.
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October 14, 2018, 05:04:06 PM
Last edit: October 14, 2018, 07:19:02 PM by kirreev070
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)


So has there been a analysis of that dump? Looked like a liquidity check right? I find the Monero dump coinciding with it telling somehow but not exactly sure in what fashion. Feels like a Crypto attack.


I saw last week information about dump in different telegrams chat. But there almost always everyone wants to dump.


Quote
Looked like a liquidity check right?

It seems to me that they are testing liquidity.




And I found an interesting chart.


https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/bitcoin-whales-oct
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October 14, 2018, 05:09:29 PM
Last edit: October 14, 2018, 05:30:13 PM by Hueristic


So has there been a analysis of that dump? Looked like a liquidity check right? I find the Monero dump coinciding with it telling somehow but not exactly sure in what fashion. Feels like a Crypto attack.


I saw last week information about dump in different telegrams chat. But there almost always everyone wants to dump.


Quote
Looked like a liquidity check right?

It seems to me that they are testing liquidity.
thanks, IOW sMerit. Smiley

Quote
And I found an interesting chart.






I wonder what percentage of that "traders" are is actually "institutional criminals"? Cheesy
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October 14, 2018, 05:19:54 PM


So has there been a analysis of that dump? Looked like a liquidity check right? I find the Monero dump coinciding with it telling somehow but not exactly sure in what fashion. Feels like a Crypto attack.


I saw last week information about dump in different telegrams chat. But there almost always everyone wants to dump.


Quote
Looked like a liquidity check right?

And I found an interesting chart.




This chart makes no sense. There are no wallets holding 1 mil BTC.
https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html

Do they mean $1 mil in btc?
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October 14, 2018, 05:25:12 PM
Merited by kirreev070 (1)

https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/bitcoin-whales-oct
they mean 1mil total coins

useless opinion piece by scum chainalysis
if there's no data, it's not research, it's puff
fuckers
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October 14, 2018, 05:29:48 PM

yeah, that pie is obviously pulled out of someone's ass
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October 14, 2018, 05:31:00 PM

Who cares about the fucking stupid pie, can anyone answer my questions?
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October 14, 2018, 05:32:59 PM



gembitz
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October 14, 2018, 06:05:03 PM

https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/bitcoin-whales-oct
they mean 1mil total coins

useless opinion piece by scum chainalysis
if there's no data, it's not research, it's puff
fuckers

we are swimming in the whale panic zone\\\ Wink chee chee
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