Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Elwar]

There is a thing called fun, doesn't that have any value? For me it has more value than money, life is for living, not always thinking what outcome is the best financially. And money is fairly easy to make anywhere in the world.

There is always a possibility that something might happen and/or someone might have personal reasons (an illness or smth) to do so, everyone can't wait for 5 years, maybe he still has a big chunk of BTC left

True. If you're retired and have nothing better to spend your money on then a lambo is a good way to burn through some cash.

But if you're still working and buy a lambo...you just extended your working days by the amount you have to earn to pay for that thing (which would be the opposite of fun). Unless you enjoy your work.

[d_eddie]

Essentially the point is that institutional investors want to buy up large quantities of Bitcoin without moving the price. So if they are only buying OTC from Bitmain and other large miners, and the "halvening" happens in 589 days... then I would agree that could easily be where the increase in price comes.

When I said "probably well before the halvening", I was thinking along the following lines.

Lately, volume on traditional exchanges has been ridiculously low. I think this might not be tightly connected with shark buyers going OTC; they have been doing things that way for a while already. The issue is small fish losing interest, patience, fiat money, or all of the above. As soon as all these things build back up, exchange prices must inevitably get a push. Any sign of a bull market will likely trigger a wave of small fish FOMO that will be impact prices for all to see, including MSM. Which will likely create some feedback loop and we'll be back to late 2017 scenarios.

Maybe we should ask Jamie Dimon. I bet he has a pretty good idea of when that might be.

So, who calls him? Will you or should I?  

I'd call Jamie Dimon, but I think he blocked my number due to my efforts to call out his BS in 2017.  

I agree, retail interest in Bitcoin is very low right now, which gives the sharks plenty of room to swim without interference. But once we see some news that spikes enough people's interest, the domino effect will take place like in 2017:

• Institutional investors quietly buying Bitcoin...
• Some announcement drives decent interest in buying Bitcoin
• Bitcoin price goes ^
• "Bitcoin Bull Run Again?" in news cycle
• People start FOMO and buy BTC
• Bitcoin price goes ^^
• More news cycles about Bitcoin "Bitcoin Goes on a Real Tear This Time, Will We See $1,000,000? Jamie Dimon Says Yes"
• More people FOMO buy
• Bitcoin price ^^^
• News cycles go wild, your grandma sees it and calls you to ask you to help her buy Bitcoin
• Institutional investors taking profit $$
• Bitcoin price ---
• People tell themselves this is consolidation before more ^^^
• Institutional investors finish taking profit $$$, start shorting
• Bitcoin price \/
• People say, "just people taking a little profit before hitting the REAL bull run"
• Bitcoin price \/\/
• People start getting a little worried about a repeat, not buying any more
• Institutional investors get busy shorting
• Bitcoin price \/\/\/
• People start reverse FOMO, selling all their holdings
• Bitcoin price \/\/\/\/\/
• Institional investors cashing in shorts... $$$$$$$
• Retail investors lose their shorts
• Bitcoin bottoms and cycle starts all over again

I am not sure why this narrrative - that institutional investors always make the right calls and own the markets while retail investors always get killed- is so prevalent in crypto psyche.

It's not that they make the right calls. It's that when your fiat muscle is in the same order of magnitude as the market cap, you stand a good chance to make your call right if you plan carefully.

Most of bitcoin richlist are retail investors. Meanwhile funds drove the ICO craze and got killed. But whatever excuse you want to make as to why you’re not wealthier, go right ahead if it makes you feel better.

Most are retail investors because they really made the right call at the right time, and staked a good chunk of their "real money" on "magic internet money". Now that the price went up significantly, correction notwithstanding, bitcoin is becoming more and more of a rich person game, as someone said a few pages back.

And by the way, it's not an excuse for me. I made that call at the right time too, although my modest fiat reserves at that time don't make me a disgustingly rich guy today. Not yet.


EDIT
Only after posting this, I read leetlezee's reply to the same post by windjc. I think it summarizes my point of view effectively. Just for reference, here's the link.

(snip)
The point is market manipulation on a large scale exists behind the scenes that is never covered by the news / brought to light.

[windjc]

I agree, retail interest in Bitcoin is very low right now, which gives the sharks plenty of room to swim without interference. But once we see some news that spikes enough people's interest, the domino effect will take place like in 2017:

• Institutional investors quietly buying Bitcoin...
• Some announcement drives decent interest in buying Bitcoin
• Bitcoin price goes ^
• "Bitcoin Bull Run Again?" in news cycle
• People start FOMO and buy BTC
• Bitcoin price goes ^^
• More news cycles about Bitcoin "Bitcoin Goes on a Real Tear This Time, Will We See $1,000,000? Jamie Dimon Says Yes"
• More people FOMO buy
• Bitcoin price ^^^
• News cycles go wild, your grandma sees it and calls you to ask you to help her buy Bitcoin
• Institutional investors taking profit $$
• Bitcoin price ---
• People tell themselves this is consolidation before more ^^^
• Institutional investors finish taking profit $$$, start shorting
• Bitcoin price \/
• People say, "just people taking a little profit before hitting the REAL bull run"
• Bitcoin price \/\/
• People start getting a little worried about a repeat, not buying any more
• Institutional investors get busy shorting
• Bitcoin price \/\/\/
• People start reverse FOMO, selling all their holdings
• Bitcoin price \/\/\/\/\/
• Institional investors cashing in shorts... $$$$$$$
• Retail investors lose their shorts
• Bitcoin bottoms and cycle starts all over again

I am not sure why this narrrative - that institutional investors always make the right calls and own the markets while retail investors always get killed- is so prevalent in crypto psyche. Most of bitcoin richlist are retail investors. Meanwhile funds drove the ICO craze and got killed. But whatever excuse you want to make as to why you’re not wealthier, go right ahead if it makes you feel better.

The point is market manipulation on a large scale exists behind the scenes that is never covered by the news / brought to light. Not all institutional investors were/are involved in the manipulation and therefore got burned by the crash earlier this year, while naturally, some HODL-ers are on the richlist (it's easier to have lots of Bitcoin if you acquired/mined it when it was cheap), and some retail traders have gotten lucky and hit it big. The point is the average Joe who is trying to get into Bitcoin is essentially robbed of his money by market manipulation he has no idea even exists.

But then again, market manipulation exists in other markets as well... stock, commodity... they just have more regulation, so it's easier to get caught.

Market manipulation does not exist on any large scale. Prove it. If retailers hold they win. Simple as that. If you are trying to day trade the chop, then you’re probably just a bad trader.

[Last of the V8s]

why is bitstamp lagging behind most other exchanges by almost 1%?

other exchanges mostly priced in tether not dollar
lotta tether fud recently, losing value versus dollar

Thanks now it make sense!  

What's your fellings on tether?

My explanation made sense but the pic didn't, sorry.
Anyway tether is a scam with likely little consequence.

[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

 

[Hueristic]

IBM 650.

"The IBM 650 is a decimal computer made from vacuum tubes in pluggable units with magnetic drum main memory. The basic system consists of the computer itself with a front operator panel, the power supply which is the same size but featureless and the IBM 533 card reader/punch that was the input/output device."

...

No fair that doesn't fit in your bedroom!

I learned machine language 6502 on the Vic20 and later got the commodore64 which was 6510... I started on a Timex/ Sinclair ZX81.  Used to stay up all night programming.
Ah the good old days.

Did you have to build the sinclair?

I pioneered the JNR - jump never return whilst at university working with machine code

You gotta go back when you goto in structured.

[StartupAnalyst]

Google search thinks Warren Buffet is the CEO of Bitcoin http://bit.ly/2ObCxhc

[Wekkel]

An interesting take on the NVT Signal: “How to Value Cryptoassets (Part I)” https://medium.com/whaleblocks/how-to-value-cryptoassets-part-i-49f244962c7d

But somehow it seems off for the current situation (see link in my comment beneath the article).

[StartupAnalyst]

[vapourminer]

I pioneered the JNR - jump never return whilst at university working with machine code

You gotta go back when you goto in structured.

my 1st assembly language program was on a trs-80 model one.. it was pretty much this:

                            LOAD A, "E"
LOOP_OF_DEATH:  PUSH AF
                            GOTO LOOP_OF_DEATH

i did it to see how fast i could fill the screen with the letter "E" vs BASIC code (POKE x,y) as with BASIC you could see it fill as the loop executed.  with PUSH i figured the stack would grow till it filled all memory, including the memory mapped video screen. it did. not to mention overwriting itself eventually of course.

with the machine language code the screen was instantly filled and the machine locked up before i could even begin to take my finger off the RETURN key heh. i was impressed. helped me understand just how fast straight machine code was vs interpreted code.

[Last of the V8s]

https://blockstream.com/2018/10/10/liquid-launch.html

We are excited to announce that the Liquid Network is now live. As the world’s first production Bitcoin sidechain, the Liquid Network provides fast, secure, and confidential transactions to address the needs of exchanges, brokers, market makers, and financial institutions around the world.

The Liquid blockchain went live with the first block generated on September 27, 2018 at 1:29 UTC. 23 of the cryptocurrency industry’s biggest players participated in the launch as Liquid members, including Altonomy, Atlantic Financial, Bitbank, Bitfinex, Bitmax, BitMEX, Bitso, BTCBOX, BTSE, Buull Exchange, DGroup, Coinone, Crypto Garage, GOPAX (operated by Streami), Korbit, L2B Global, OKCoin, The Rock Trading, SIX Digital Exchange, Unocoin, Xapo, XBTO, and Zaif. Together, these members comprise the Liquid Network, ensuring users’ assets are protected through a geographically diverse network with no single point of failure.

[Raja_MBZ]

https://blockstream.com/2018/10/10/liquid-launch.html

We are excited to announce that the Liquid Network is now live. As the world’s first production Bitcoin sidechain, the Liquid Network provides fast, secure, and confidential transactions to address the needs of exchanges, brokers, market makers, and financial institutions around the world.

The Liquid blockchain went live with the first block generated on September 27, 2018 at 1:29 UTC. 23 of the cryptocurrency industry’s biggest players participated in the launch as Liquid members, including Altonomy, Atlantic Financial, Bitbank, Bitfinex, Bitmax, BitMEX, Bitso, BTCBOX, BTSE, Buull Exchange, DGroup, Coinone, Crypto Garage, GOPAX (operated by Streami), Korbit, L2B Global, OKCoin, The Rock Trading, SIX Digital Exchange, Unocoin, Xapo, XBTO, and Zaif. Together, these members comprise the Liquid Network, ensuring users’ assets are protected through a geographically diverse network with no single point of failure.

Nice, but do we really need sidechains? I don't think so.

[goldkingcoiner]

https://blockstream.com/2018/10/10/liquid-launch.html

We are excited to announce that the Liquid Network is now live. As the world’s first production Bitcoin sidechain, the Liquid Network provides fast, secure, and confidential transactions to address the needs of exchanges, brokers, market makers, and financial institutions around the world.

The Liquid blockchain went live with the first block generated on September 27, 2018 at 1:29 UTC. 23 of the cryptocurrency industry’s biggest players participated in the launch as Liquid members, including Altonomy, Atlantic Financial, Bitbank, Bitfinex, Bitmax, BitMEX, Bitso, BTCBOX, BTSE, Buull Exchange, DGroup, Coinone, Crypto Garage, GOPAX (operated by Streami), Korbit, L2B Global, OKCoin, The Rock Trading, SIX Digital Exchange, Unocoin, Xapo, XBTO, and Zaif. Together, these members comprise the Liquid Network, ensuring users’ assets are protected through a geographically diverse network with no single point of failure.

Nice, but do we really need sidechains? I don't think so.

Any upgrade to bitcoin is a huge bonus and very welcome. Especially when the sidechains have a different proof of work algorithm than the mainchain. Bitcoin should will be upgraded to the point where altcoins will become obsolete and anyone and everyone will buy bitcocaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaain to the moon, past the mars rover into the pegasus galaxy.

[Paashaas]

https://blockstream.com/2018/10/10/liquid-launch.html

We are excited to announce that the Liquid Network is now live. As the world’s first production Bitcoin sidechain, the Liquid Network provides fast, secure, and confidential transactions to address the needs of exchanges, brokers, market makers, and financial institutions around the world.

The Liquid blockchain went live with the first block generated on September 27, 2018 at 1:29 UTC. 23 of the cryptocurrency industry’s biggest players participated in the launch as Liquid members, including Altonomy, Atlantic Financial, Bitbank, Bitfinex, Bitmax, BitMEX, Bitso, BTCBOX, BTSE, Buull Exchange, DGroup, Coinone, Crypto Garage, GOPAX (operated by Streami), Korbit, L2B Global, OKCoin, The Rock Trading, SIX Digital Exchange, Unocoin, Xapo, XBTO, and Zaif. Together, these members comprise the Liquid Network, ensuring users’ assets are protected through a geographically diverse network with no single point of failure.

Another huge milestone for Bitcoin!

[El duderino_]

the banking system will go away ..... and BTC just need too stay SO every day is another succes for BTC and many milestones have been reached so
GoGogOgO BTC

[El duderino_]

hahaha lmao nice this one SO TRUE 

[Last of the V8s]

https://blockstream.com/2018/10/10/liquid-launch.html
...

Another huge milestone for Bitcoin!

their first money-maker
more opinions: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/9n0wtt/liquid_goes_live_blockstreams_first_bitcoin/
also interesting re the supermicro hack: https://blockstream.com/2018/10/04/liquid-functionaries-and-the-impact-of-hardware-vulnerabilities.html

Nice, but do we really need sidechains? I don't think so.

No, it's all sad flailing about. Might up the price a bit though in the medium term.

[HairyMaclairy]

An interesting take on the NVT Signal: “How to Value Cryptoassets (Part I)” https://medium.com/whaleblocks/how-to-value-cryptoassets-part-i-49f244962c7d

But somehow it seems off for the current situation (see link in my comment beneath the article).

I’m not sure how they account for transaction batching in the NVT calculation, as the number of transactions is falling due to batching.

On Liquid, not that excited. It is a private highway for Bitcoin whales to quickly and silently move their Bitcoin. Access is not available to regular users.  It goes against the democratic principles of Bitcoin.

[d_eddie]

Have you seen Wall St.?
ATM, it's DJIA -2.68%, NASDAQ -3.46%.

[jbreher]

https://blockstream.com/2018/10/10/liquid-launch.html

We are excited to announce that the Liquid Network is now live. As the world’s first production Bitcoin sidechain, the Liquid Network provides fast, secure, and confidential transactions to address the needs of exchanges, brokers, market makers, and financial institutions around the world.

The Liquid blockchain went live with the first block generated on September 27, 2018 at 1:29 UTC. 23 of the cryptocurrency industry’s biggest players participated in the launch as Liquid members, including Altonomy, Atlantic Financial, Bitbank, Bitfinex, Bitmax, BitMEX, Bitso, BTCBOX, BTSE, Buull Exchange, DGroup, Coinone, Crypto Garage, GOPAX (operated by Streami), Korbit, L2B Global, OKCoin, The Rock Trading, SIX Digital Exchange, Unocoin, Xapo, XBTO, and Zaif. Together, these members comprise the Liquid Network, ensuring users’ assets are protected through a geographically diverse network with no single point of failure.

Bait and switch. Liquid does not implement sidechains, as originally envisioned (as a permissionless, uncensorable, two-way peg).