Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Hey @JJG! Just wondering, what are the odds of going below $3900 (again) now?

Hahahahaha!!!!

You seem to be in a kind of gloating posture....   

Nah, not at this stage. I'll surely be in one "after" (and iff before testing $3900 again) we break into a new ATH!

A little gloating can be fun, and a good thing... especially if you make a historical reference, after we breach new ATH, then there can be time and space for gloating, whether the gloat is true or not.

I will look forward to it... You will gloat, as the BTC price flies through $20k, and I will assert that you are "full of shit", while both of us laugh are way to the bank (in the $30k plus arena.. because we won't be hanging out in the $20ks for very long).

So, yeah, you are correct to point out that BTC prices have moved a considerable distance from $3,900 and presumptively pointed out that the odds have likely gotten greater, than previously, that we will not go below $3,900 ever, ever again. 

The odds of going below $3,900 is likely similar to whether the bottom is "in" or not.. maybe slightly higher odds for going below $3,900 than if the bottom is in at $3,122...

Another question is whether we are going to test our support at the $4,200 break out levels.  So if testing the bottom of $3,122 might be as high as 46%... then going below $3,900 might be in the 47% arena, and testing $4,200 would be in the 48-49% arena.    So currently breaking below $5k seems to be in the 50/50 area. 

Honestly, I'm thinking more about the test of $5800 support right now, as it comes way before $4200.

If this upwards price pressure persists, then it is going to be hard to test the various price support levels.   

Surely, I don't play around with leverage, but even margin shorts being opened in these price levels cannot rest assured that they are not going to get r3ckt.

Don't forget, we never tested the "major level" of $3000 again after breaking it in 2017 bull run; I know that we can't compare the current mini-run to the last bull run just about yet, as the overall momentum and situation of that run is incomparable to the current run, but still, never forget, it's bitcoin and sh!t can happen any day.

Well, isn't that more or less the same as testing $3,122?  I cannot see much difference.  If the BTC price were to break below $3,500 then both $3,122 and $3k would have equally high odds of being challenged.  Problem with those scenarios seems to be that they have become a whole hell of a lot less probable, because our momentum seems to have converted towards UP, and it is going to take a whole hell-of-a lot of bear FUD or other seemingly realistic negative news to bring this bad boy down towards breaking various support levels that have been created between here and there.

P.S. take my last sMerit!

Thanks.

Let's worry (a bit) about this gap right now:

CME bitcoin futures open today Sunday 17:00 CT.

No need to worry.

BTCgonna do what BTC does, and we seem to have enough cushion that any of us HODLers should not be worrying too much... and if we are worrying, we have a bit more profits that we could skim off in this $7k price range in order to prepare us for $5,800 or lower, just in case....

Let's say, for example, our total stash is only 5BTC.   Let's say that we have been struggling for about the past two years to acquire BTC with every paycheck and upon every price dip.  The reality of the matter is that if we really fear going down to $5,800 or lower, we could shave off somewhere between .05 BTC and .25BTC (that is between 1% and 5%) to prepare our BTC portfolio for such eventuality... personally, I would only play with the smaller amounts, but I understand that some guys (and gal) might be willing to risk a higher amount in order to prepare for down... but we should know that we are preparing for both down and up.. accordingly, we have to be able to tweak our holdings, if we are feeling uncomfortable in order to cause more comfort.

I am not always comfortable, but I have sold a bit more than 2% of my BTC portfolio with the price rise from $4,200 to $7,585... Whether I am able to buy those BTC back or not, I remain somewhat neutral in my feelings.... therefore if the price goes down, I will use some of those proceeds to buy back the BTC that I sold, yet if the BTC price does not go down, I am o.k. with that outcome too... because over 96% of my BTC to fiat value remains in BTC...

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[toknormal]

Maybe the BTC rise is the bow wave of a financial crisis.

Tom Luongo and David Stockman were discussing it today.

Maybe there's no "4 year BTC cycle" this time and it will be blown to Kingdom Come by a financial crisis brought on by a ceasing up of world trade, deflation in the credit system causing cratering defaults here and there, stock market tops, emerging market currency hyperinflation and Western sovereign bond meltdowns.

[Raja_MBZ]

I will look forward to it... You will gloat, as the BTC price flies through $20k, and I will assert that you are "full of shit", while both of us laugh are way to the bank (in the $30k plus arena.. because we won't be hanging out in the $20ks for very long).

OMG! Someone, please merit this guy for me!

No need to worry.

BTCgonna do what BTC does, and we seem to have enough cushion that any of us HODLers should not be worrying too much... and if we are worrying, we have a bit more profits that we could skim off in this $7k price range in order to prepare us for $5,800 or lower, just in case....

Let's say, for example, our total stash is only 5BTC.   Let's say that we have been struggling for about the past two years to acquire BTC with every paycheck and upon every price dip.  The reality of the matter is that if we really fear going down to $5,800 or lower, we could shave off somewhere between .05 BTC and .25BTC (that is between 1% and 5%) to prepare our BTC portfolio for such eventuality... personally, I would only play with the smaller amounts, but I understand that some guys (and gal) might be willing to risk a higher amount in order to prepare for down... but we should know that we are preparing for both down and up.. accordingly, we have to be able to tweak our holdings, if we are feeling uncomfortable in order to cause more comfort.

I am not always comfortable, but I have sold a bit more than 2% of my BTC portfolio with the price rise from $4,200 to $7,585... Whether I am able to buy those BTC back or not, I remain somewhat neutral in my feelings.... therefore if the price goes down, I will use some of those proceeds to buy back the BTC that I sold, yet if the BTC price does not go down, I am o.k. with that outcome too... because over 96% of my BTC to fiat value remains in BTC...

Win-win situation, I love it! I tried to do the same with a little part of my holdings (about 5%) yesterday, which is totally stuck in Binance for now. Sold at $7400 and thought the same thing, "if bitcoin goes down, I'll buy back from this USDC bag, if it doesn't go down, I still win with my remaining holdings". But then I bought back the BTC (FOMO'ed at the dump) at $6800 as I liked the little 0.03 BTC profit off that Binance bag.


Next two hours are critical.

[toknormal]

[LFC_Bitcoin]

$7,127

Life feels pretty damn good right now

[Agapios]

45 minutes to go until cme group bitcoin futures trading opens
time for some people  who missed party a bit to jump on wagon

and 44 minutes for other to pump a price for them
7144 on stamp, and up up we go

[_javier_]

Let the walls mantain us above 7k and i´m a happy puppy

[El duderino_]

I will look forward to it... You will gloat, as the BTC price flies through $20k, and I will assert that you are "full of shit", while both of us laugh are way to the bank (in the $30k plus arena.. because we won't be hanging out in the $20ks for very long).

OMG! Someone, please merit this guy for me!

No need to worry.

BTCgonna do what BTC does, and we seem to have enough cushion that any of us HODLers should not be worrying too much... and if we are worrying, we have a bit more profits that we could skim off in this $7k price range in order to prepare us for $5,800 or lower, just in case....

Let's say, for example, our total stash is only 5BTC.   Let's say that we have been struggling for about the past two years to acquire BTC with every paycheck and upon every price dip.  The reality of the matter is that if we really fear going down to $5,800 or lower, we could shave off somewhere between .05 BTC and .25BTC (that is between 1% and 5%) to prepare our BTC portfolio for such eventuality... personally, I would only play with the smaller amounts, but I understand that some guys (and gal) might be willing to risk a higher amount in order to prepare for down... but we should know that we are preparing for both down and up.. accordingly, we have to be able to tweak our holdings, if we are feeling uncomfortable in order to cause more comfort.

I am not always comfortable, but I have sold a bit more than 2% of my BTC portfolio with the price rise from $4,200 to $7,585... Whether I am able to buy those BTC back or not, I remain somewhat neutral in my feelings.... therefore if the price goes down, I will use some of those proceeds to buy back the BTC that I sold, yet if the BTC price does not go down, I am o.k. with that outcome too... because over 96% of my BTC to fiat value remains in BTC...

Win-win situation, I love it! I tried to do the same with a little part of my holdings (about 5%) yesterday, which is totally stuck in Binance for now. Sold at $7400 and thought the same thing, "if bitcoin goes down, I'll buy back from this USDC bag, if it doesn't go down, I still win with my remaining holdings". But then I bought back the BTC (FOMO'ed at the dump) at $6800 as I liked the little 0.03 BTC profit off that Binance bag.


Next two hours are critical.

Send him 50% of my stash,

[Toxic2040]

And if you do not have Mom?  
How can I be happy?

feelin' you man

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EZlmqWmcqw#t=0m33s

+1 WOsMerit


'By doing the best they could' she said. '...and it was pretty walking good.'

miss you mom.


------------

Hello everyone, I hope you are all enjoying your Mothers Day. Get out there and give some of it back to her.

------------
bitcoin





#dyor

1h



1h doubled cloud

#stronghands'19

[AlcoHoDL]

Win-win situation, I love it! I tried to do the same with a little part of my holdings (about 5%) yesterday, which is totally stuck in Binance for now. Sold at $7400 and thought the same thing, "if bitcoin goes down, I'll buy back from this USDC bag, if it doesn't go down, I still win with my remaining holdings". But then I bought back the BTC (FOMO'ed at the dump) at $6800 as I liked the little 0.03 BTC profit off that Binance bag.

Based on what you've just posted, your holdings must be around 6.8 BTC. Not a small amount, well done!

Keep HoDLing!

[...I just love playing with numbers...]

[infofront]

Supreme King Uberbear Tyler Jenks issues first Bitcoin buy recommendation in 17 months:



https://twitter.com/LucidInvestment/status/1127250971053129728

Hyperwave might have some merit (although not here and now). But this guy is clearly retarded if he recommends a first buy in 17 months, hyperwave or not.

I find it amusing how the somewhat maligned teenagers in their parents basements making charts on tradingview and crypto twitter have issued better calls than many of these "experts".

[infofront]

New Masterluc Telegram Post. Translation:

I looked at the weekly and daily closed candles .... Not a hint of a weak trend. Bitcoin said "who the hell is wang" and defiantly went to draw a bubble from 3000 to 10,000 in one wave, breaking through the six as oil. All the same, we will test $ 6000, true from above). Hmm. What does this tell us?

Bitcoin has demonstrated that it is heavily oversold. (Ahem, still, sitting almost astride a weekly ma200 ....). If you extrapolate what is happening now for the future, it is not difficult to imagine that now it is only one, and then there will be three ... And five ... Well, that is, this jump is just a pimple on the future of an elephant.

Another Bitcoin said, who bulls shorts, will be without panties.

In short. My new opinion is $ 10k, then $ 6k. But it is not exactly! ))

[Last of the V8s]

CME first trade was 7150
sorry for not real time - too mean to pay for that package

[JayJuanGee]

​​Cryptos are in the middle of rally, excitement and wariness are in the air

As cryptocurrencies are in the middle of a rally these days, the market is waiting excitedly (or warily) on whether or not it will continue and how far it will go.



https://twitter.com/phillipnunnuk/status/1127311488870420482

I think that the odds are pretty damned low that the BTC price would rise to $20k in 45 days or less in this second time around.  We were in a very strong FOMO and upwards momentum that late 2017 first time around.

Actually, we would be quite lucky if BTC prices were to rise to $20k within the next 365 days....   More likely scenarios would be at least over 500 days.

I would love to be proven wrong, but it seems quite fantastical and pie in the sky for anyone to be seriously expecting the BTC price to go up to $20k in 45 days, absent some real fantastical and unexpected developments.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Agree with you there JJG, no $20,000 breach until at least 12 months, probably 18 months. Moon is in sight though & we’ll get there.

[El duderino_]

Agree with you there JJG, no $20,000 breach until at least 12 months, probably 18 months. Moon is in sight though & we’ll get there.

How many times did I hear we didn't where gonna see 7xxx this year ........ trying to predict the price is just impossible as just wastin e of time trying

F***  20K could happen in 1-2-3 weeks if BTC want it to be so!!!

Closing in to HODLsleep

[Last of the V8s]

this is at consensus
rumours flying about
probably just cryptoshitties for sale
unless...

[Last of the V8s]

meanwhile at magical crypto conference

[Biodom]

Agree with you there JJG, no $20,000 breach until at least 12 months, probably 18 months. Moon is in sight though & we’ll get there.

How many times did I hear we didn't where gonna see 7xxx this year ........ trying to predict the price is just impossible as just wastin e of time trying

F***  20K could happen in 1-2-3 weeks if BTC want it to be so!!!

Closing in to HODLsleep

It's impossible, but then... it happens.
IDK.. if we are mini-bubbling here, then we could finish at around 10K, then down to 7k or even 6K (within 2-3 mo), but then pop all the way to 25-34K a la 2013 "double-pop" style.
PS: funny, I posted this without looking and now I see that masterluc (in infofront's translation) said more or less the same.

[Raja_MBZ]

This dump was expected. Let's see if it extends further or not.

Win-win situation, I love it! I tried to do the same with a little part of my holdings (about 5%) yesterday, which is totally stuck in Binance for now. Sold at $7400 and thought the same thing, "if bitcoin goes down, I'll buy back from this USDC bag, if it doesn't go down, I still win with my remaining holdings". But then I bought back the BTC (FOMO'ed at the dump) at $6800 as I liked the little 0.03 BTC profit off that Binance bag.

Based on what you've just posted, your holdings must be around 6.8 BTC. Not a small amount, well done!

Keep HoDLing!

[...I just love playing with numbers...]

Oh wow! That number is extremely close to my overall portfolio worth. We've got some nice mathematicians in this thread, I wasn't aware of that!

Honestly, ADA played a big role in getting me to that number; if ADA hadn't pumped as it did, I'd have been struggling at ~3.75 BTC instead of ~6.5 BTC. I literally sold the exact top of ADA/BTC last month, after it went 2x. Now it's back to the spot from where it pumped; however, I'm no longer interested in getting a crazy bag of it anymore as IOHK failed yet again to release the Shelley testnet on time. Without Shelley (PoS) on mainnet, I'm quite sure that Coinbase won't be listing them either.