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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 10 (6.5%)
H2 2019 - 16 (10.4%)
H1 2020 - 29 (18.8%)
H2 2020 - 28 (18.2%)
H1 2021 - 12 (7.8%)
H2 2021 - 31 (20.1%)
H1 2022 - 6 (3.9%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.6%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (1.9%)
2024 or Later - 15 (9.7%)
Total Voters: 154

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21290355 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
realr0ach
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April 29, 2019, 07:46:12 AM

and ending with running their own LN node.

You don't seem to comprehend the only way LN is incentivized to function in the real world is you opening a channel to a bank through which all your transactions will be routed.  It is completely useless.  The base bitcoin network is bad enough in that it has built-in, rent seeking middlemen in every transaction and also requires 3 or more parties to proceed at all - unlike a real peer to peer transaction like physical metals that only requires 2 parties - but Lightning Network places an actual bank as the middleman in every transaction.  It's laughable.
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DaRude
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April 29, 2019, 08:00:14 AM

This is under the assumption that the block size wouldn't grow when needed, blocks aren't full without outside attacks so there's no evidence that when the time comes we won't increase the block size to a common sense size.

Well, other than the evidence that blocks were kept small the last time they became persistently full. Which, in itself, is pretty strong evidence.

Once the need resurfaces (and it most certainly will), how long do you think it will take to implement the necessary change?

If it was urgent it could probably be done in 48 hours.   But it won’t be urgent.  

It ain't just a river in Egypt.

I would mostly agree with the bear here.
The last full block crisis resulted in inaction, to force people onto segwit. I presume the next full block crisis will result in inaction, to force people onto lightning.

Dude wtf you weren't supposed to tell them!!
micgoossens
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BTFD, on to 15K a coin !!!!


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April 29, 2019, 08:23:20 AM

Think for a second about how crazy using a credit card is.

Every time you make a purchase online, you literally type in your private keys and pray someone doesn’t steal it.

At restaurants you hand your private keys to your waiter and they walk off.

This is why we Bitcoin.

https://twitter.com/_connerbrown_/status/1122215828189933568?s=21
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April 29, 2019, 08:28:23 AM


Its Vietnam, somewhere along the Mekong delta near Hcmc? Dude playing a bamboo flute in sandals for tips with the Vietnamese 'cam on' meaning thank you written on the case.

Damn you guys are good.  I knew you wouldn’t let me down.  Yes it’s Vietnam.  More pixels pending.

Ho Chi Minh centre - near Notre Dame or War Remnants Museum?
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April 29, 2019, 08:38:31 AM

K, next up on the HairyMclarry name that street contest:


Easy one: Chicago.
https://gawker.com/392059/google-maps-catches-chicago-kid-about-to-shoot-someone

2007 Version.
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April 29, 2019, 08:44:14 AM
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Is that's cats face Photoshopped? Looks a bit off.


cryptjh
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April 29, 2019, 08:44:14 AM

When we zoom a little out and look at the weekly bitcoin chart, it starting to look very bullish. The chart shows the last 3 months weekly BTC on trading view.
https://twitter.com/crypt_jh
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April 29, 2019, 08:48:26 AM

According to this graph made by PlanB, after the halving of 2024 his model is calling a BTC price of USD 400,000.




I dont like this graph. Because it have same factor for every halving but emission inflation keeps decreasing. So supply pressure from freshly mined coins is smaller and smaller.   
When first halving happened in 2012. 50% of all Bitcoin was mined and daily emission of 3600 BTC gave us 0.03425% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 12.5% yearly emission inflation
When last halving happened in 2016. 75% of all Bitcoin was mined and daily emission of 1800 BTC gave us 0.01142% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 4.17% yearly emission inflation
At next halving next year 87% of all bitcoins will be already mined and daily emission of 900 BTC will give us 0.00489% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 1.78% yearly emission inflation


12.5/4.17 is more then 4.17/1.78. So impact of halving on price of Bitcoin is decreasing.



BTW Gold average yearly mining inflation is 1.6%

I am not really getting your point.
Firstly this Stock to flow is not a new concept. As far as I know it was proposed in the bitcoin environment in by Saifedean Ammous in his book The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking.
Second stock to flow is actually the inverse of inflation rate, so if you are countering this with inflation rate you are actually using the same argument for and against this graph.
Thirdly i get you didn't get the point when saying "halving" are less and less relevant: the opposite is actually true as Stock to Flow is increasing dramatically (and this is a choice made by Satoshi when defining the protocol).



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April 29, 2019, 09:03:57 AM

UnDerDoG81
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April 29, 2019, 09:14:26 AM

I plan selling 50% of my Bitcoins. Was thinking to do that @$50k per coin. What do you guys think? Hold a bit longer and see where it goes?


We are not even close to $50k, yet, so you better hold, otherwise you will NOT even get close to meeting your plan about what to do.
Exactly what a stupid question, I plan at selling at x should I sell at 1/10 if my targeted price.

hahahahahaha

That is what I was thinking.

Frequently, these trolls come up with some doosies of a "dumb" (like you said) questions.

It was more an ironic question to show how much I believe in Bitcoin... Not my fault when people are too stupid to understand some things  Cheesy...
realr0ach
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April 29, 2019, 09:18:11 AM
Last edit: April 29, 2019, 09:31:51 AM by realr0ach

Firstly this Stock to flow is not a new concept. As far as I know it was proposed in the bitcoin environment in by Saifedean Ammous in his book The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking.

He did NOT invent that terminology.  It's an archaic business and economics term used for physical commodities like metals or value added goods.  Trying to rip it off and bastardize it for use for imaginary, valueless, digital shitcoins is ridiculous. Nobody "stocks" shitcoins in a store or warehouse.  Shitcoins are not a resource, value added good, a commodity, or anything else.  Shitcoins are Plato-Keynesian monetary theory imaginary widgets.
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April 29, 2019, 09:39:18 AM
Last edit: April 29, 2019, 09:59:42 AM by Icygreen
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Hoan Kiem Lake near Turtle pagoda in Hanoi?

Edit: Could also be Ho Tay lake (west lake) in Hanoi. I say its Hanoi because IIRC you've worked/spent time in China and this would be an immediate holiday destination or work-cation.
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April 29, 2019, 09:40:34 AM
Last edit: April 29, 2019, 10:18:05 AM by fillippone

Firstly this Stock to flow is not a new concept. As far as I know it was proposed in the bitcoin environment in by Saifedean Ammous in his book The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking.

He did NOT invent that terminology.  It's an archaic business and economics term used for physical commodities like metals or value added goods.  Trying to rip it off and bastardize it for use for imaginary, valueless, digital shitcoins is ridiculous. Nobody "stocks" shitcoins in a store.  Shitcoins are not a resource, value added good, a commodity, or anything else.  Shitcoins are Plato-Keynesian monetary theory imaginary widgets.
If you carefully read what I wrote, You'll understand I didn't stated he invented the concept, but I stated he was the first to apply it to Bitcoin.
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April 29, 2019, 09:57:56 AM
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Coinbase, Binance, Goldman, And Other Big Crypto Players Met Behind Closed Doors To Discuss The Future Of Crypto Huh

https://www.investinblockchain.com/coinbase-binance-goldman-other-big-crypto-players-met-behind-closed-doors-to-discuss-future-crypto/

"Following Bitcoin’s lows in December, veteran trader Hoe Lon Leng reportedly orchestrated a meeting with 2 dozen of the crypto market’s biggest players, ranging from the likes of Coinbase, Binance, Goldman, Galaxy Digital, and others, to discuss the future of crypto.

As reported by Bloomberg, the meeting was held on a luxury resort on Singapore’s Sentosa Island on January 20, where the highly influential individuals brainstormed ways to make cryptocurrencies a part of the world’s financial infrastructure.
...
Per the report, an important goal of the meeting was to create the framework for an orderly market in crypto derivatives, which is part of every new asset class’s road to acceptance.
...
The crypto derivatives focused on at the meeting are called private bilateral derivatives, otherwise known as over-the-counter (OTC) contracts. These OTC contracts are different from Bitcoin futures, as futures contracts are managed by regulated companies like CME Group."
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April 29, 2019, 10:04:12 AM
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This is under the assumption that the block size wouldn't grow when needed, blocks aren't full without outside attacks so there's no evidence that when the time comes we won't increase the block size to a common sense size.

Well, other than the evidence that blocks were kept small the last time they became persistently full. Which, in itself, is pretty strong evidence.

Once the need resurfaces (and it most certainly will), how long do you think it will take to implement the necessary change?
That was a short spam attack period, you know damn well that was artificial and everyone knew it.
kingcolex
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April 29, 2019, 10:09:00 AM

I plan selling 50% of my Bitcoins. Was thinking to do that @$50k per coin. What do you guys think? Hold a bit longer and see where it goes?


We are not even close to $50k, yet, so you better hold, otherwise you will NOT even get close to meeting your plan about what to do.
Exactly what a stupid question, I plan at selling at x should I sell at 1/10 if my targeted price.

hahahahahaha

That is what I was thinking.

Frequently, these trolls come up with some doosies of a "dumb" (like you said) questions.

It was more an ironic question to show how much I believe in Bitcoin... Not my fault when people are too stupid to understand some things  Cheesy...
I was only pretending to be stupid, it's not my fault others are stupid.


Okay bro.
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April 29, 2019, 10:09:29 AM

Coinbase, Binance, Goldman, And Other Big Crypto Players Met Behind Closed Doors To Discuss The Future Of Crypto Huh

https://www.investinblockchain.com/coinbase-binance-goldman-other-big-crypto-players-met-behind-closed-doors-to-discuss-future-crypto/

Why do you retards always post things like this pretending it's good news?  You're literally posting "Goldman Sachs tries to trick retarded goyim into using digital cashless society slave system instead of physical metals" then go, "Cool!".
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April 29, 2019, 10:12:16 AM

This is under the assumption that the block size wouldn't grow when needed, blocks aren't full without outside attacks so there's no evidence that when the time comes we won't increase the block size to a common sense size.

Well, other than the evidence that blocks were kept small the last time they became persistently full. Which, in itself, is pretty strong evidence.

Once the need resurfaces (and it most certainly will), how long do you think it will take to implement the necessary change?
That was a short spam attack period, you know damn well that was artificial and everyone knew it.

It's pretty well documented that from Nov 2017 to Feb 208 Ver-owned BTC was being sent back and forth to itself in intermittent bursts with exceptionally high fees, just so the average fee would increase and Ver could say, "Look! Bitcoin Core fees are too high!"

There's no reason to increase the block size, and if this "pushes" people into using Lightning, then good.
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April 29, 2019, 10:14:12 AM

This is under the assumption that the block size wouldn't grow when needed, blocks aren't full without outside attacks so there's no evidence that when the time comes we won't increase the block size to a common sense size.

Well, other than the evidence that blocks were kept small the last time they became persistently full. Which, in itself, is pretty strong evidence.

Once the need resurfaces (and it most certainly will), how long do you think it will take to implement the necessary change?
That was a short spam attack period, you know damn well that was artificial and everyone knew it.

Yes, I remember people posting the addresses of the spammers at the time. That's the good thing about 1mb blocks, spamming gets expensive.
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April 29, 2019, 10:22:22 AM

This is under the assumption that the block size wouldn't grow when needed, blocks aren't full without outside attacks so there's no evidence that when the time comes we won't increase the block size to a common sense size.

Well, other than the evidence that blocks were kept small the last time they became persistently full. Which, in itself, is pretty strong evidence.

Once the need resurfaces (and it most certainly will), how long do you think it will take to implement the necessary change?
That was a short spam attack period, you know damn well that was artificial and everyone knew it.

Yes, I remember people posting the addresses of the spammers at the time. That's the good thing about 1mb blocks, spamming gets expensive.
Big blocks are a disaster if there isn't sufficient utility. Say you had 32 MB blocks and only < 2 MB of actual traffic. Someone could easily spam 28 MB per block for peanuts. Sustained over 1 day: 4032 MB of garbage for almost free. Good idea indeed.
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