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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26389043 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
toknormal
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May 14, 2019, 09:53:44 AM


If you want long term indicators what about the 1 week RSI being at 77.5.  In the whole history of bitcoin it's never been that high without a major retrace.   6500 minimum.    As much as it looks buoyant right now that will not last too long.  It's massivly over brought based on lies atm

edit:  i meant over brought Cheesy

Long range RSI was above 77 for most of the year prior to the December 2017 top. It was also above it back in June 2016 and in fact only dipped below 70 from July to October 2016.

It was at 90 when the bitcoin price was still below $1000.

Depends what chart range you look at. Quoting any indicator is meaningless without a qualifying chart range - it can show one trend at one range and a completely different value (and trend) at another.
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May 14, 2019, 10:00:26 AM
Merited by Wekkel (1), infofront (1)


If you want long term indicators what about the 1 week RSI being at 77.5.  In the whole history of bitcoin it's never been that high without a major retrace.   6500 minimum.    As much as it looks buoyant right now that will not last too long.  It's massivly over brought based on lies atm

edit:  i meant over brought Cheesy

Long range RSI was above 77 for most of the year prior to the December 2017 top. It was also above it back in June 2016 and in fact only dipped below 70 from July to October 2016.

It was at 90 when the bitcoin price was still below $1000.

Depends what chart range you look at. Quoting any indicator is meaningless without a qualifying chart range - it can show one trend at one range and a completely different value (and trend) at another.

Please stop talking shit


SInce 2011


jonoiv
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May 14, 2019, 10:03:56 AM



Bearish engulfing candle on the 2 hour as just after it attempted this trend line.  6k in a couple days imo

1.  No one cares about the 2hr

2.  Don’t count your candles before they close

3.  A single candle means nothing without follow through.


Candle closed,  it's bearish
somac.
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May 14, 2019, 10:06:49 AM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)


If you want long term indicators what about the 1 week RSI being at 77.5.  In the whole history of bitcoin it's never been that high without a major retrace.   6500 minimum.    As much as it looks buoyant right now that will not last too long.  It's massivly over brought based on lies atm

edit:  i meant over brought Cheesy

Long range RSI was above 77 for most of the year prior to the December 2017 top. It was also above it back in June 2016 and in fact only dipped below 70 from July to October 2016.

It was at 90 when the bitcoin price was still below $1000.

Depends what chart range you look at. Quoting any indicator is meaningless without a qualifying chart range - it can show one trend at one range and a completely different value (and trend) at another.

Please stop talking shit


SInce 2011




Major downtrend??? you kidding right? the only downtrend is after the 2013 and 2017 highs all the ones before that are corrections. Corrections are normal and honestly what is needed at the moment.
jonoiv
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May 14, 2019, 10:10:09 AM


If you want long term indicators what about the 1 week RSI being at 77.5.  In the whole history of bitcoin it's never been that high without a major retrace.   6500 minimum.    As much as it looks buoyant right now that will not last too long.  It's massivly over brought based on lies atm

edit:  i meant over brought Cheesy

Long range RSI was above 77 for most of the year prior to the December 2017 top. It was also above it back in June 2016 and in fact only dipped below 70 from July to October 2016.

It was at 90 when the bitcoin price was still below $1000.

Depends what chart range you look at. Quoting any indicator is meaningless without a qualifying chart range - it can show one trend at one range and a completely different value (and trend) at another.

Please stop talking shit


SInce 2011




Major downtrend??? you kidding right? the only downtrend is after the 2013 and 2017 highs all the ones before that are corrections. Corrections are normal and honestly what is needed at the moment.

semantics.  point is 6500 incoming at least.
somac.
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May 14, 2019, 10:13:06 AM


semantics.  point is 6500 incoming at least.

toknormal could say the same about your response.

Look, I mean no offense here, but look at the chart first then make an opinion from that. Don't have an opinion first then match the chart to that opinion.

a correction to 6500 would be healthy.
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May 14, 2019, 10:15:34 AM
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May 14, 2019, 10:22:22 AM

F***ING UNBELIEVABLE




on one day in the future you will be posting this and it will be only 1btc for that gold...
And then I will actually buy one as an ancient relic of the past.



Also:

Happy birthday LFC.
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May 14, 2019, 10:24:33 AM
Last edit: May 14, 2019, 10:49:49 AM by toknormal


...RSI being at 77.5.  In the whole history of bitcoin it's never been that high without a major retrace......

Please stop talking shit

All I'm saying is that your "rule" is largely arbitrary and based on cherry picking ranges. The RSI itself retraces but not necessarily the price from the level it's at at the time. All depends on what happens next.

In February 2017 1-week RSI hit 90. There was no "major retrace" ever following that level other than a minor correction on the way to the moon.

In August 2017 RSI hit 89 with price around 2k. There was no "major retrace" ever following that level, in fact there was barely even a correction.

In October 2015 RSI hit 80 with price range 300-400. It retested the base of that range for a day or two and never saw that level ever again.

In 2013 just prior to the "Cyprus" spike, RSI reached NEARLY 100 in March with price rangebound at $48-$70 for the week. Apart from a momentary capitulation to $64, it traded above $80-$90 forever since then.

Not saying that we can't expect a correction from this rise - it's obvious that there has to be at some point.
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May 14, 2019, 10:33:19 AM

its still quite in the media about this recent rise.

People are unaware about the recovery, we still have room to grow

In Belgium its different the oooh so F*** HLN newspaper that cannot be fast enough to write during a DIP...

Today one of the first articles



https://www.hln.be/ihln/internet/bitcoin-blijft-stijgen-nu-al-meer-dan-8-000-dollar-waard~ac90d925/

Roll Eyes
El duderino_
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May 14, 2019, 10:35:34 AM

Ok, sorry, serious when next



?? Roll Eyes
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May 14, 2019, 10:42:46 AM

Btw if some not follow collectibles, the 2009 times paper has a current bid of 6.25BTC

finish 20th of this month

fun to watch

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5134423.msg50706702#msg50706702

Also some are speculating about how much it will be sold @..... any thought what you guys think the value of this piece could be?

When BTC hits 100K and more then this will be for sure the most expensive newspaper Roll Eyes
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May 14, 2019, 10:50:16 AM

Come on my little BTC-friend be strong ᕦ(ツ)ᕤ  Grin
jonoiv
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May 14, 2019, 10:51:15 AM
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...RSI being at 77.5.  In the whole history of bitcoin it's never been that high without a major retrace......

Please stop talking shit



All I'm saying is that your "rule" is totally arbitrary and based on cherry picking ranges.

In February 2017 1-week RSI hit 90. There was no "major retrace" ever following that level other than a minor correction on the way to the moon.

In August 2017 RSI hit 89 with price around 2k. There was no "major retrace" ever following that level, in fact there was barely even a correction.

In October 2015 RSI hit 80 with price range 300-400. It retested the base of that range for a day or two and never saw that level ever again.

In 2013 just prior to the "Cyprus" spike, RSI reached NEARLY 100 in March with price rangebound at $48-$70 for the week. Apart from a momentary capitulation to $64, it traded above $80-$90 forever since then.

Not saying that we can't expect a correction from this rise - it's obvious that there has to be at some point - just that these kinds of quantified generalisations are arbitrary. The RSI itself retraces but not necessarily the price from the level it's at at the time. All depends on what happens next.


The other one in august which is sandwiched between 2 other big drops 4880 to 3600 is still 20% drop.  It's only hits RSI over 70 due to its proximity to the other two peaks.

I worked out the percentage drops for you.   So at the very least we can expect  30% drop... so thats the 5800 range unless this is phase B of an elliot wave and then it's probable to go much lower.

3th August 2012
High 16.41  
low  7.10
-56.73 %


8th April 2013
High 259
Low 45
-82.62 %


5th Nov 2013
High 1163
Low 152
-86.93 %


2nd Nov 2015
High 502
Low 294
-41.43 %

13ht June 2016
High 778
Low 465
-40.23 %



2nd Jan 2016
High 1139
Low 751
-34.06 %


6th March 2017
High 1350
Low 891
-34 %


12th June 2017
2High 2980
Low 1830
-38.59 %

28th Aug 2017
High 4980
Low 2970
-40.36 %


6th Nov 2017
High 7888
Low 5555
-29.57 %

18th Dec 2017

High 19666
Low 3181   (so far)
-83.82 %






El duderino_
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May 14, 2019, 10:52:20 AM
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somac.
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May 14, 2019, 10:55:26 AM


I worked out the percentage drops for you.   So at the very least we can expect  30% drop... so thats the 5800 range unless this is phase B of an elliot wave and then it's probable to go much lower.

3th August 2012
High 16.41  
low  7.10
-56.73 %


8th April 2013
High 259
Low 45
-82.62 %


5th Nov 2013
High 1163
Low 152
-86.93 %


2nd Nov 2015
High 502
Low 294
-41.43 %

13ht June 2016
High 778
Low 465
-40.23 %



2nd Jan 2016
High 1139
Low 751
-34.06 %


6th March 2017
High 1350
Low 891
-34 %


12th June 2017
2High 2980
Low 1830
-38.59 %

28th Aug 2017
High 4980
Low 2970
-40.36 %


6th Nov 2017
High 7888
Low 5555
-29.57 %

18th Dec 2017

High 19666
Low 3181   (so far)
-83.82 %


And how many of those are downtrends rather than corrections? And for how many of them did the price drop instantly when the RSI hit 77? Technical indicators are just a derivative of price or volume. They are nothing special on their own.
El duderino_
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May 14, 2019, 10:55:34 AM


...RSI being at 77.5.  In the whole history of bitcoin it's never been that high without a major retrace......

Please stop talking shit



All I'm saying is that your "rule" is totally arbitrary and based on cherry picking ranges.

In February 2017 1-week RSI hit 90. There was no "major retrace" ever following that level other than a minor correction on the way to the moon.

In August 2017 RSI hit 89 with price around 2k. There was no "major retrace" ever following that level, in fact there was barely even a correction.

In October 2015 RSI hit 80 with price range 300-400. It retested the base of that range for a day or two and never saw that level ever again.

In 2013 just prior to the "Cyprus" spike, RSI reached NEARLY 100 in March with price rangebound at $48-$70 for the week. Apart from a momentary capitulation to $64, it traded above $80-$90 forever since then.

Not saying that we can't expect a correction from this rise - it's obvious that there has to be at some point - just that these kinds of quantified generalisations are arbitrary. The RSI itself retraces but not necessarily the price from the level it's at at the time. All depends on what happens next.




I worked out the percentage drops for you.   So at the very least we can expect  30% drop... so thats the 5800 range unless this is phase B of an elliot wave and then it's probable to go much lower.

3th August 2012
High 16.41  
low  7.10
-56.73 %


8th April 2013
High 259
Low 45
-82.62 %


5th Nov 2013
High 1163
Low 152
-86.93 %


2nd Nov 2015
High 502
Low 294
-41.43 %

13ht June 2016
High 778
Low 465
-40.23 %



2nd Jan 2016
High 1139
Low 751
-34.06 %


6th March 2017
High 1350
Low 891
-34 %


12th June 2017
2High 2980
Low 1830
-38.59 %

28th Aug 2017
High 4980
Low 2970
-40.36 %


6th Nov 2017
High 7888
Low 5555
-29.57 %

18th Dec 2017

High 19666
Low 3181   (so far)
-83.82 %


Maybe a first time for everything, but for the longtermHODLers its still the same HODL, as long its building UP its good Smiley
fabiorem
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May 14, 2019, 10:57:30 AM
Merited by Gyrsur (1)

F***ING UNBELIEVABLE




on one day in the future you will be posting this and it will be only 1btc for that gold...


Actually, it will be the opposite: 63.89 gold bars are worthy a bitcoin.

toknormal
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May 14, 2019, 11:03:32 AM
Last edit: May 14, 2019, 11:20:06 AM by toknormal


I worked out cherrypicked the percentage drops for you.

FTFY.

You're confusing corrections in RSI with corrections in spot price. When the RSI hits the overbought region the price can keep on hiking for as long as it likes till there's a correction. However the base of the correction can quite easily occur ABOVE the point at which the RSI entered the overbought range. After a spell in the overbought region and a peak the RSI will generally decline to more "buyable" levels. But the price doesn't always correlate.

For example on the 3-day chart between the peaks in June 2017 and August 2017, RSI declined from 91 to 75 but price increased from $2800 to $4900. In fact by the time the price hit $5800 RSI was still at 68.
jonoiv
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May 14, 2019, 11:04:22 AM


I worked out the percentage drops for you.   So at the very least we can expect  30% drop... so thats the 5800 range unless this is phase B of an elliot wave and then it's probable to go much lower.

3th August 2012
High 16.41  
low  7.10
-56.73 %


8th April 2013
High 259
Low 45
-82.62 %


5th Nov 2013
High 1163
Low 152
-86.93 %


2nd Nov 2015
High 502
Low 294
-41.43 %

13ht June 2016
High 778
Low 465
-40.23 %



2nd Jan 2016
High 1139
Low 751
-34.06 %


6th March 2017
High 1350
Low 891
-34 %


12th June 2017
2High 2980
Low 1830
-38.59 %

28th Aug 2017
High 4980
Low 2970
-40.36 %


6th Nov 2017
High 7888
Low 5555
-29.57 %

18th Dec 2017

High 19666
Low 3181   (so far)
-83.82 %


And how many of those are downtrends rather than corrections? And for how many of them did the price drop instantly when the RSI hit 77? Technical indicators are just a derivative of price or volume. They are nothing special on their own.

I told you it's semantics.  A percentage drop is what it is.  expect 6500 min very soon,  5800 highly likely and 4800 quite possible and a chance we haven't hit the low yet post 19k
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