Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Wilhelm]

next stop 12k ?  

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Nice to see we're back in 5 digits again... currently $10701USD/$14305CAD (Bitcoinaverage). Also back up over 70% dominance (CMC).

I still think it's a little early to declare the battle for $10k to be won but the autumn (N. hemisphere) run up should be starting in not too many weeks.

Go Bitcoin go.

Not sure how accurate this source is.

Yeah, but you did not even provide the source.

The sources are in the image.

[ulrich_zh]

Hi guys, I haven’t been on the forum for about a year and remembered about this thread. How are you doing?
I did an analysis here and realized that 100k was waiting for us.

[tranthidung]

Hello all WO citizens, you all should read it. I made this one with latest data update from VB1001.

Update:

ABSTRACT
(1) Last two months, Bitcoin fell ~4.5% in price, while figures for total replies, total pages, total views between last two periods (30/6/2019-31-7/2019 and 31/7/2019-31/8/2019) fell 24.8%, 31.3%, and 24.91%, respectively.  (Details, please see in the last table in the bottom of the post).
(2) In medians, figures for monthly new replies, views, and pages are 426942, 57218 and 277, respectively

Data source (from @VB1001):
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg52028093#msg52028093
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg52029308#msg52029308
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg52325977#msg52325977

Converted dataset:

Code:

. list id day month2 year date rep repchange prep2 views viewchange pview2 pages pagechange ppages2 btc pbtc, abb(30)

     +-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
     | id   day   month2   year        date      rep   repchange    prep2      views   viewchange   pview2   pages   pagechange   ppages2     btc     pbtc |
     |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  1. |  1    31       10   2017   31oct2017   361446           .        .   19386138            .        .   18703            .         .    6380        . |
  2. |  2    30       11   2017   30nov2017   368288        6842        .   19749672       363534        .   18415         -288         .    9786    53.39 |
  3. |  3    31       12   2017   31dec2017   380800       12512    82.87   20076512       326840   -10.09   19041          626         .   13186    34.74 |
  4. |  4    31        1   2018   31jan2018   386480        5680    -54.6   20118498        41986   -87.15   19325          284    -54.63   10138   -23.12 |
  5. |  5    28        2   2018   28feb2018   396480       10000    76.06   20185277        66779    59.05   19825          500     76.06   10629     4.84 |
     |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  6. |  6    31        3   2018   31mar2018   402460        5980    -40.2   20222795        37518   -43.82   20109          284     -43.2    7119   -33.02 |
  7. |  7    30        4   2018   30apr2018   407457        4997   -16.44   20247143        24348    -35.1   20288          179    -36.97    9275    30.29 |
  8. |  8    31        5   2018   31may2018   410507        3050   -38.96   20280891        33748    38.61   20526          238     32.96    7559    -18.5 |
  9. |  9    30        6   2018   30jun2018   416730        6223   104.03   20315481        34590     2.49   20787          261      9.66    6457   -14.58 |
 10. | 10    31        7   2018   31jul2018   419443        2713    -56.4   20341078        25597      -26   20975          188    -27.97    7848    21.54 |
     |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 11. | 11    31        8   2018   31aug2018   424622        5179     90.9   20413924        72846   184.59   21132          157    -16.49    6935   -11.63 |
 12. | 12    30        9   2018   30sep2018   426942        2320    -55.2   20474102        60178   -17.39   21288          156      -.64    6633    -4.35 |
 13. | 13    30       10   2018   30oct2018   430939        3997    72.28   20650285       176183   192.77   21447          159      1.92    6642      .14 |
 14. | 14    30       11   2018   30nov2018   437199        6260    56.62   20782977       132692   -24.69   21810          363     128.3    4015   -39.55 |
 15. | 15    31       12   2018   31dec2018   446510        9311    48.74   20926425       143448     8.11   22296          486     33.88    3800    -5.35 |
     |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 16. | 16    31        1   2019   31jan2019   452916        6406    -31.2   21006158        79733   -44.42   22563          267    -45.06    3459    -8.97 |
 17. | 17    28        2   2019   28feb2019   459605        6689     4.42   21042628        36470   -54.26   22974          411     53.93    3901    12.78 |
 18. | 18    31        3   2019   31mar2019   465823        6218    -7.04   21079099        36471        0   23292          318    -22.63    4103     5.18 |
 19. | 19    30        4   2019   30apr2019   473225        7402    19.04   21133357        54258    48.77   23662          370     16.35    5270    28.44 |
 20. | 20    31        5   2019   31may2019   480783        7558     2.11   21193583        60226       11   24040          378      2.16    8501    61.31 |
     |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 21. | 21    30        6   2019   30jun2019   488192        7409    -1.97   21256108        62525     3.82   24410          370     -2.12   11262    32.48 |
 22. | 22    31        7   2019   31jul2019   493567        5375   -27.45   21307690        51582    -17.5   24679          269     -27.3   10052   -10.74 |
 23. | 23    31        8   2019   31aug2019   497611        4044   -24.76   21343127        35437    -31.3   24881          202    -24.91    9605    -4.45 |
     +-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Notes on variables:
- rep: total replies
- repchange: change of total replies between two months
- prep2: percent of change in rep (replies) between two continuous months.

- views: total views
- viewchange: change of total views between two months
- pview2: percent of change in total views (views) between two continuous months.

- pages: total pages
- pagechange: change of total pages between two months
- ppages2: percent of change in total pages (pages) between two continuous months.

- btc: BTC price
- pbtc: percent of change in BTC price (btc) between two continuous months.
Since this update, I use new variables, pview2, prep2, ppages2, because variables for percentage of changes between two months in OP look stupid, so I decided to change.
Now, let I explain the formula for variable prep2:
To make it simple, I have a simple dataset like:

Code:

month rep repchange prep2
1 10 na na
2 50 40 na
3 80 30 x

How to calculate x?
x = (80-50)/(50-10)*100
It means I calculate percentage of changes in two period: period 1 (from month 1 to month 2), period 2 (from month 2 to month 3)


Results:
Period of observations (22 months, Oct. 2017 - end Aug. 2019)

In medians, figures for monthly new replies, views, and pages are 6221, 57218 and 277, respectively

Code:

. tabstat rep repchange viewchange pagechange, s(n mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max) c(s)

    variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         rep |        23  431653.3  40063.37    426942    402460    465823    361446    497611
   repchange |        22  6189.318  2385.798    6220.5      4997      7402      2320     12512
  viewchange |        22  88954.05  91983.42     57218     36470     79733     24348    363534
  pagechange |        22  280.8182  176.8509     276.5       188       370      -288       626
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Plots

Code:

. list id day month2 year date prep2 pview2 ppages2 pbtc, abb(30)

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
     | id   day   month2   year        date    prep2   pview2   ppages2     pbtc |
     |---------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  1. |  1    31       10   2017   31oct2017        .        .         .        . |
  2. |  2    30       11   2017   30nov2017        .        .         .    53.39 |
  3. |  3    31       12   2017   31dec2017    82.87   -10.09         .    34.74 |
  4. |  4    31        1   2018   31jan2018    -54.6   -87.15    -54.63   -23.12 |
  5. |  5    28        2   2018   28feb2018    76.06    59.05     76.06     4.84 |
     |---------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  6. |  6    31        3   2018   31mar2018    -40.2   -43.82     -43.2   -33.02 |
  7. |  7    30        4   2018   30apr2018   -16.44    -35.1    -36.97    30.29 |
  8. |  8    31        5   2018   31may2018   -38.96    38.61     32.96    -18.5 |
  9. |  9    30        6   2018   30jun2018   104.03     2.49      9.66   -14.58 |
 10. | 10    31        7   2018   31jul2018    -56.4      -26    -27.97    21.54 |
     |---------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 11. | 11    31        8   2018   31aug2018     90.9   184.59    -16.49   -11.63 |
 12. | 12    30        9   2018   30sep2018    -55.2   -17.39      -.64    -4.35 |
 13. | 13    30       10   2018   30oct2018    72.28   192.77      1.92      .14 |
 14. | 14    30       11   2018   30nov2018    56.62   -24.69     128.3   -39.55 |
 15. | 15    31       12   2018   31dec2018    48.74     8.11     33.88    -5.35 |
     |---------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 16. | 16    31        1   2019   31jan2019    -31.2   -44.42    -45.06    -8.97 |
 17. | 17    28        2   2019   28feb2019     4.42   -54.26     53.93    12.78 |
 18. | 18    31        3   2019   31mar2019    -7.04        0    -22.63     5.18 |
 19. | 19    30        4   2019   30apr2019    19.04    48.77     16.35    28.44 |
 20. | 20    31        5   2019   31may2019     2.11       11      2.16    61.31 |
     |---------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 21. | 21    30        6   2019   30jun2019    -1.97     3.82     -2.12    32.48 |
 22. | 22    31        7   2019   31jul2019   -27.45    -17.5     -27.3   -10.74 |
 23. | 23    31        8   2019   31aug2019   -24.76    -31.3    -24.91    -4.45 |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

[SuperTA]

The first major resistance for the shorterm is marked with the yellow area. Around 10.800 Usd to 11.000 Usd, it depends when it gets there.
The first minor resistance is marked with the orange area. We are currently already there. Around 10.500 Usd.

resistance is futile, go borgcoin go!

edit: lol, borgcoin really exists: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=574236.0

Yea, for the longterm there is no resistance. Only sky is the limit.

first resistance is pulverized

Yes, the first minor resistance (orange area) is pulverized but the first major resistance (yellow area) was barely touched.

[Searing]

When Bitcoin reached 3100 Usd there was a very negative news about bitcoin and crypto in general. But Bitcoin started to rise anyway from there on. As you can see, you must be a little bit contrarian, not to just follow the news and the majority of people.

The horror! Ack! I'm having 'flashbacks' and PTSD from your comment above of that which should not be mentioned, $3,100 USD Bitcoin! Ack!

I was so proud of myself selling at $3,965 USD and watching it fall to the above price. Dumped 13 BTC. Ack!

Managed through lucky equipment sale, to get this down to only 10 BTC down as of now, but alas! The horror!

This is what happens when you have a momentary lapse of the HODL faith!

Anyway, still amazing and including myself, how folks will not buy at the very low but buy like hell on the pump. Hopefully, I have immunized myself

from this with my 10 BTC sell lesson. Live and learn.

Brad

[SuperTA]

I appreciate your honesty! Many traders wouldn't admit that. But you will  probably win in the longterm. You have more btc than i do.
I started with 50 euros in the middle of 2017.

[VB1001]

Pointing in the right direction, let's go !!! BTC

I was about to send you a smerit for this lovely pic; however, I was not sure about the symbolism of it?  Does it mean top?  or a double top? 

TLDR:  looks simultaneously nice and scary

Posted just before starting to climb, for not putting another green dildo.

[Kylapoiss]

Yeah, first fking Tuesday in 4 months to sit down at a normal time and have a beer. I think I just came in my brain.


EDIT: And the first thing I thought of was coming here

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Yeah, first fking Tuesday in 4 months to sit down at a normal time and have a beer. I think I just came in my brain.


EDIT: And the first thing I thought of was coming here

Beer & Bitcoin - Two amazing things, they belong together, why not?
Welcome back my friend

[Kylapoiss]

Yeah, first fking Tuesday in 4 months to sit down at a normal time and have a beer. I think I just came in my brain.


EDIT: And the first thing I thought of was coming here

Beer & Bitcoin - Two amazing things, they belong together, why not?
Welcome back my friend

I do thank you very much, sent my last merit on the way for the warm welcome (back?)

Has anything changed here? Or how much can even change in about 7 months?

[VB1001]

‘Big 4’ Auditor PwC’s Luxembourg Office to Accept Crypto Payments

“Big Four” auditing firm PwC’s Luxembourg branch will accept cryptocurrency payments from clients starting next month.

The move, announced Monday, is a response to client demand and demonstrates PwC Luxembourg’s belief in blockchain technology’s “medium to long-term” role in the economy, the firm said.

https://www.coindesk.com/big-4-auditor-pwcs-luxembourg-office-to-accept-cryptocurrency-payments


Turning words into actions: PwC Luxembourg embraces crypto-payments

PwC Luxembourg is stepping further into blockchain and crypto-assets by accepting Bitcoin payments from its clients as from 1 October 2019, in a move acknowledging the needs of clients and the willingness of the Luxembourgish Firm to support the growing national crypto ecosystem.
Understanding the game, playing by its rules

Bitcoin is now ten years old and went through a very public rollercoaster-life cycle over the years since its inception. In it relatively short history it has gone from being a symbol of a revolutionary payment model to a dark-web preferred currency tag, all the while passing through breathtaking price fluctuations. It has been a tough childhood to say the least.

What is certain, however, is that Bitcoin kept its promise as the first peer-to-peer payment mechanism  that cannot be compromised and is based on a decentralised trust model. Despite this technological breakthrough, bad buzz and structural challenges have added to its growing pains by acting as impediments to its mass adoption.

https://www.pwc.lu/en/press-releases/2019/pwc-luxembourg-embraces-crypto-payments.html

[ulrich_zh]

Yeah, first fking Tuesday in 4 months to sit down at a normal time and have a beer. I think I just came in my brain.


EDIT: And the first thing I thought of was coming here

Beer & Bitcoin - Two amazing things, they belong together, why not?
Welcome back my friend

And football of course)

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Yeah, first fking Tuesday in 4 months to sit down at a normal time and have a beer. I think I just came in my brain.


EDIT: And the first thing I thought of was coming here

Beer & Bitcoin - Two amazing things, they belong together, why not?
Welcome back my friend

I do thank you very much, sent my last merit on the way for the warm welcome (back?)

Has anything changed here? Or how much can even change in about 7 months?

Have 2 back
Not much has changed, the same old trolls hanging around. I think we’re transitioning into full bull mode now. Hopefully the end of the year is a slow grind up continuing towards the halving & then the fireworks start in 2021.

And football of course)

Of course & tits!

[bkbirge]

I can just see CW trying to claim this, lol...

https://cointelegraph.com/news/pompliano-satoshi-should-win-nobel-peace-prize-for-bitcoin

“Satoshi should win the Nobel Peace Prize. We finally have a currency that can assume global reserve status without anyone having to engage in violence.”

[bkbirge]

Maybe we are seeing some front loading here in preparation for this...
https://cointelegraph.com/news/vaneck-solidx-to-offer-limited-bitcoin-etf-for-institutions-via-exemption

According to the report, the investment management firms are planning to start selling on Sept. 5 under the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) Rule 144A, which allows the sale of privately placed securities to “qualified institutional buyers.”

[fillippone]

^^
Discussed here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg52345881#msg52345881

[bkbirge]

^^
Discussed here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg52345881#msg52345881

I didn't see those other sources, thanks. Any comment on whether today's price action has a correlation? What say you oh chart masters?

[JSRAW]

Yo LFC "J" is clean  

Not sure how accurate this source is.

Yeah, but you did not even provide the source.

The sources are in the image.

He rarely miss....

[Paashaas]

Maybe we are seeing some front loading here in preparation for this...
https://cointelegraph.com/news/vaneck-solidx-to-offer-limited-bitcoin-etf-for-institutions-via-exemption

According to the report, the investment management firms are planning to start selling on Sept. 5 under the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) Rule 144A, which allows the sale of privately placed securities to “qualified institutional buyers.”

Physically-backed bitcoin ETF + Bakkt + halving = Moon.

LoL.