Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jojo69]

This ends only one way. War.

I fear so.  Our chances of getting through it without serious radiological release seem grim indeed.

[1596806459]

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[HairyMaclairy]

This ends only one way. War.

I fear so.  Our chances of getting through it without serious radiological release seem grim indeed.

Rubbish.

The world is far more connected today than it was 15 years ago.

The iPhone means that people in Milwaukee are far more likely to be interlinked with people in Ulan Bator or Nairobi.

These interconnected trade flows mean that war is rapidly becoming unacceptable between state actors.  It would be bad for business.  Pyongyang is kept on a tight leash by Beijing.

Of course we are seeing increasing sophistication from non-State actors such as ISIS and white supremacists, but they don’t have access to WMDs as yet (and won’t if the world’s intelligence agencies have anything to do with it).

[infofront]

You seem to be describing Armageddon-like scenarios in which gold might prosper in such a way that is appreciating 10x or more from current value, ... unlikely scenarios, but we might chose to make 1% to 10% of our investment choices based on such scenarios, especially if we assign them a high probability (such as 10%, which seems a bit high to me, but might seem reasonable to some of the Armageddon nutjobs out there)

Q: Given an unending supply of inflationary medium, how long can a balloon keep expanding?

A: Exactly until the internal inflationary forces overcome structural integrity, causing balloon to burst.

- jbreher, proud monetary armageddonist nutjob since long before the turn of the millennia

Noted:  Jbreher admits to being one of the armagaeddon nutjobs.  Hopefully, you, jbreher, are not staking too much of actual value (more  than 10% - or even up to 20% in really seemingly stupid-ass crazy dedication)  on such an unlikely scenario.

I don't know when, but I'm 99% certain there will be a grand worldwide monetary reset within my lifetime. Perhaps as early as next week.

I might subscribe to this, but the question is what form it would take.
Imagine for a moment that ALL bonds in developed countries (or at least up to 30 year) are with negative yield (like in Germany right now).
What would it mean?
To me, it would almost certainly mean that you would be charged for deposits. In a big picture this would look like system malfunction.
El-Erian recently said that fin system is not set up to operate with negative yields. Think of insurance and pension funds, for example.
In this situation, who would have deposits larger than a month or two of expenses?
Reset where and how would reset affect those negative rates?

I don't think that the CBs/IMF/etal have WarRoomed the possibilities sufficiently in order to be ready when the offal hits the oscillator. Accordingly, they will likely react in panic. Which would indicate the reset could go in any direction.

That said...

r0ach certainly spews a lot of shit. However, I can agree with him on one point. I think the most likely reset (should it occur within the near or mid term) would be a return to gold as the ultimate basis of world monetary system. I suppose there might be an interim step of 'backed by SDR', but I don't expect that particular sleight of hand to last more than a decade itself.

I do see scenarios where Bitcoin (be it BTC, BSV, or BCH) becomes the reserve currency, but given current state and rate of current trends, less likely. At least in the short term.

As far as interest rates? Repudiated debt does not carry interest.

I don't see the rebasing of the monetary system happening any time soon. Governments never give up power willingly, and the power to print money is the single greatest power they hold.

[soxxx]

Whatsup Bears?!?

[bkbirge]

Appeared on the Google news feed.

"Visionary Bitcoin Creator Satoshi Nakamoto to Reveal Identity"

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/08/16/1903230/0/en/Visionary-Bitcoin-Creator-Satoshi-Nakamoto-to-Reveal-Identity.html

Someone claiming to be satoshin.

"...Nakamoto will illustrate the role that cyphers and encryption related to his devotion to Chaldean numerology played in many decisions in his creation of Bitcoin."

[lightfoot]

Ahhhh.... I like bottom.

[fillippone]

Good morning WO
Observing BTC @10,380
Observing above picture Too
Speaking of dreams:
If you want to dream, dream it bigger:

https://twitter.com/digitaliknet/status/1162367526279491585?s=21

Something for fun It shows how would next 1458 days (full cycle) look like if price change history would repeat last 1458 days. As with all other graphs this one is live so it is interesting to see how estimated ATH is changing over time.
digitalik.net/btc/cycle_repe…
#bitcoin #btc

[HairyMaclairy]

Yeah.  That would be quite a lot of money.  So many moneys.

[fillippone]

Yeah.  That would be quite a lot of money.  So many moneys.

Remember to HODL.
Don’t get lured into selling 400K!

Ah! I want to see this post to age well and be found again around WO page 53,834!

[Biodom]

Impossibru!

[VB1001]

Coinbase Accidentally Saves Unencrypted Passwords of 3,420 Customers

Major crypto platform Coinbase has emailed 3,420 Coinbase customers to disclose an accident with customer registration. Some registration details were apparently stored in clear text on the logs of Coinbase’s internal server, with affected customers now required to change their passwords.

Coinbase announced the news in an official blog post on Aug. 16. According to the announcement, Coinbase has resolved the root cause of the bug and the platform is confident that stored data was not “improperly accessed, misused, or compromised.”

https://cointelegraph.com/news/coinbase-accidentally-saves-unencrypted-passwords-of-3-420-customers

Post Mortem: A closer look at a password storage issue affecting 3,420 customers

https://blog.coinbase.com/post-mortem-a-closer-look-at-a-password-storage-issue-affecting-3-420-customers-e23cfc8a0363

[jojo69]

Rubbish.

I wish I shared your optimism.  While I do believe that the State, as currently conceived, is becoming obsolete, I expect it to be an idea whose death throes will be quite violent.

[SuperTA]

Good morning WO
Observing BTC @10,380
Observing above picture Too
Speaking of dreams:
If you want to dream, dream it bigger:

https://twitter.com/digitaliknet/status/1162367526279491585?s=21

Something for fun It shows how would next 1458 days (full cycle) look like if price change history would repeat last 1458 days. As with all other graphs this one is live so it is interesting to see how estimated ATH is changing over time.
digitalik.net/btc/cycle_repe…
#bitcoin #btc

Bro, don't compare and copy this pattern  from 2016! That was a bad pattern, caused by collapse of mt.gox. Which caused longer sideways movement after the bear market.
That's why many people think this bull rally 2019 from 3k to 14k was too fast. Because they compare this year's rally with previous start of 2016 bull rally. We are in a different circumstances right now and we will probably have a different pattern this time. Besides that, this pattern looks very unnatural, if you look the pattern from today's point to 2021.

[fillippone]

Coinbase Accidentally Saves Unencrypted Passwords of 3,420 Customers

Major crypto platform Coinbase has emailed 3,420 Coinbase customers to disclose an accident with customer registration. Some registration details were apparently stored in clear text on the logs of Coinbase’s internal server, with affected customers now required to change their passwords.

Coinbase announced the news in an official blog post on Aug. 16. According to the announcement, Coinbase has resolved the root cause of the bug and the platform is confident that stored data was not “improperly accessed, misused, or compromised.”

https://cointelegraph.com/news/coinbase-accidentally-saves-unencrypted-passwords-of-3-420-customers

Post Mortem: A closer look at a password storage issue affecting 3,420 customers

https://blog.coinbase.com/post-mortem-a-closer-look-at-a-password-storage-issue-affecting-3-420-customers-e23cfc8a0363

#deletecoinbase
#neverforget

[jbreher]

You seem to be describing Armageddon-like scenarios in which gold might prosper in such a way that is appreciating 10x or more from current value, ... unlikely scenarios, but we might chose to make 1% to 10% of our investment choices based on such scenarios, especially if we assign them a high probability (such as 10%, which seems a bit high to me, but might seem reasonable to some of the Armageddon nutjobs out there)

Q: Given an unending supply of inflationary medium, how long can a balloon keep expanding?

A: Exactly until the internal inflationary forces overcome structural integrity, causing balloon to burst.

- jbreher, proud monetary armageddonist nutjob since long before the turn of the millennia

Noted:  Jbreher admits to being one of the armagaeddon nutjobs.  Hopefully, you, jbreher, are not staking too much of actual value (more  than 10% - or even up to 20% in really seemingly stupid-ass crazy dedication)  on such an unlikely scenario.

I don't know when, but I'm 99% certain there will be a grand worldwide monetary reset within my lifetime. Perhaps as early as next week.

I might subscribe to this, but the question is what form it would take.
Imagine for a moment that ALL bonds in developed countries (or at least up to 30 year) are with negative yield (like in Germany right now).
What would it mean?
To me, it would almost certainly mean that you would be charged for deposits. In a big picture this would look like system malfunction.
El-Erian recently said that fin system is not set up to operate with negative yields. Think of insurance and pension funds, for example.
In this situation, who would have deposits larger than a month or two of expenses?
Reset where and how would reset affect those negative rates?

I don't think that the CBs/IMF/etal have WarRoomed the possibilities sufficiently in order to be ready when the offal hits the oscillator. Accordingly, they will likely react in panic. Which would indicate the reset could go in any direction.

That said...

r0ach certainly spews a lot of shit. However, I can agree with him on one point. I think the most likely reset (should it occur within the near or mid term) would be a return to gold as the ultimate basis of world monetary system. I suppose there might be an interim step of 'backed by SDR', but I don't expect that particular sleight of hand to last more than a decade itself.

I do see scenarios where Bitcoin (be it BTC, BSV, or BCH) becomes the reserve currency, but given current state and rate of current trends, less likely. At least in the short term.

As far as interest rates? Repudiated debt does not carry interest.

I don't see the rebasing of the monetary system happening any time soon. Governments never give up power willingly, and the power to print money is the single greatest power they hold.

I don't disagree with you on the governmental desire to coin money. However, the next monetary crisis, there will be no backstop. They will be powerless when the value of any currency they can manage trends toward zero.

[serveria.com]

Ahhhh.... I like bottom.

7/10 nice but not perfect. I'm not into fitness girls and this girl seems to have done a lot of squats...    I prefer rounder, more feminine butts  

[El duderino_]

Impossibru!

Could say that, but I do love to think that nothing is impossible

[JayJuanGee]

Fair enough point, but I still would be hesitant to put all my eggs in one basket, no matter what my age.  Of course, if you are real young and barely just living on your own (moving out of the parent house or even living with parents and in the early stages of building your wealth), then in those cases, you usually do start with just investing in one thing while you are building your portfolio, and then you might start to expand out with the passage of time.  If you only have one investment because you are just starting to invest, then probably in those kinds of circumstances, you might start out with bitcoin... perhaps?  Those are somewhat individually tailored decisions concerning how diversified any person needs to be in terms of cash flow and projected expenses, too.

It also depends on your income. I'm not 20 but still at the start of my career, without a good diploma, so not a great salary. Most of my savings go towards my company's stock, as it's making a matching contribution, it's a safe bet I can't overlook. I was in the stock market but sold everything as it became scary, two years later it has basically not moved (French stock market), so I just lost some dividends, but got peace of mind. Overall I'm 30% company stock, 30% cash, 40% BTC, with BTC's share quite volatile obviously. At current prices I couldn't even buy 1BTC/year so not really worth it, better keep cash and buy when it's lower. I want to put the company stock and some/most of the cash towards a home with a small mortgage on top, after that I might put more money towards BTC, but not even sure, I'd like some land, maybe a bit of forest.

You seem to be describing Armageddon-like scenarios in which gold might prosper in such a way that is appreciating 10x or more from current value, and yeah, I agree that we should not be making the bulk of our investment decisions and/or allocations based on such unlikely scenarios, but we might chose to make 1% to 10% of our investment choices based on such scenarios, especially if we assign them a high probability (such as 10%, which seems a bit high to me, but might seem reasonable to some of the Armageddon nutjobs out there, such as roach and like-thinking acolytes of similar dumbass mindsets)

In that case you also need physical gold, stashed at home. An ETF or whatever is useless. Stashing at home has its own downsides.

Well, each of us has to make a choice.  I know that I invested into a 401k plan that had employer matching, for well over 15 years, and I would max out that 401k plan to the tax deductible limit.  However I did not know about BTC druing that time, so I am not really what would have happened in those pre-2014 days. 

So, yeah, currently, if I was building my investments, I probably would maximize at least the matching portion of the fund first, and then consider whether I should maximize the tax deductible portion before allocating to BTC.  People might decide differently, but there is a certain level of attractiveness and even convenience to have a decent amount of your investment funds under one roof.

Regarding Armageddon, I am still suggesting that guys gotta be fucking super careful regarding how much credence that they are giving to Armageddon scenarios that are likely in the less than 1%  likelihood and h9ow much of their value are they investing into such a low likely scenario.

Do the fuck what you like, ultimately, but it is also good to attempt to grapple with the probabilities and don't be fucking investing way the fuck higher than the probabilities that you even assign to such events.  Yeah, if you happen to be an Armageddon nutjob then you are going to assign higher values to that so there is ONLY so much that normal people can  talk the dumb out of dumb, so do the fuck what you like if you are assigning higher probabilities to such situations.

[jojo69]

...not into fitness girls...

 

[JayJuanGee]

It will take several more months to get shit re-arranged. Miss you all (even JJG. Sort of).

Well, I am glad that you sort of miss me, and hopefully you are able to catch up on everything  - not a bad thing to have a lot of balls in the air, as long as you are feeling that none of them are getting too out-of-control.  Look forward to seeing you in a few months, and insulting you in some kind of meaningless way, too.