Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[marcus_of_augustus]

The big question really for the long term is how much does this virus mutate  ?  If catching it previously is not a defence as is common with the normal cold humans get every year then we are in for a load of trouble, I imagine that road is alot longer then presently anticipated.   If it is just one and done phenomena then its not quite as bad despite the unfortunate lethality ongoing at present.

The whole possibility to a second bump to the curve and how big that might be is what scares me more then the current problem, bad as it is.  The longer term is the bigger worry because it cant be dodged forever, we dont know the full picture yet.  

... this is getting closer to how I think it may play out, but then again anyone who says they know how it goes from here is deluding themselves, and maybe others.

Speculatively speaking it's looking like natural immunity is short-lived (if not non-existent) so anybody who has caught the virus may catch it again. Other coronaviruses can be caught up 2-3 times a year (some common colds) and no vaccine ever developed. So we probably have to resign ourselves to the fact this thing is going to keep recirculating around the globe until everybody who might be immediately susceptible has perished (over the next 3-4 years) and it's circulating like a common cold virus for the rest of us. Due to massive concerted lockdown efforts the first wave has been curtailed but the 1% lethality (my best estimate from hard figures out there) will not be denied and eventually 70 million people are going to succumb to this disease globally at some point. The second wave will be the most deadly because people will be fatigued with all the restrictions and be then saying "fuck it let's get on with it, if they die, they die" (like Ibian). You might say they were old and infirm, unfortunately the West is demographically skewed to old and unhealthy at this point in the cycle. Some indication it has tendency in genetic preference of lethality also to Asian, African, Polynesian, Melanesian. After that it will stalk the global population taking out elderly, unhealthy, etc, not unlike heart disease, cancer, flu except contagious and endemic.

[Ibian]

Well then speaking of unmentionable-chan, we have enough info to do some back of the envelope calculations at this point.

Over half of infected show no symptoms. They don't even know they have her inside them. Of those who do get symptoms, maybe a fifth will get sick enough to get tested. Those are the official numbers, so the actual number of infected is likely to be ten times as high.

From that group, maybe a fifth will get sick enough to need treatment. And of those, maybe a fifth die. So that gives us a 0.4% death rate overall. Let's assume I'm wildly off and call it 4%. Even then not bad enough to shut down the entire global economy, much less implement the kind of draconian measures that some here have personally experienced.

Is anything missing? Is the current state of the world anything other than an authoritarian power grab?

So you are saying Sweden did nothing wrong?

It all depends on the kind of disease. If this had been an extremely virulent Ebola then sweden would now be depopulated and ripe for takeover by almost anyone. But this is not ebola. It is a worse variant of the flu or close enough (bar secondary infections being worse which still remains to be seen).

With a very deadly plague, you want to stay the fuck home until it passes. But a plague that kills barely anyone, and mostly the old and weak and infirm, that also happens to be a virus (and therefore might mutate) you want to get through it as fast as the medical system can cope.

... after reading that you seem quite convinced everybody needs to catch it, at this point you'd be a hypocrite to your own reasoning if you didn't go out and contract the Covid-19 disease at the soonest opportunity (before it mutates into something worse).

No. Everyone will catch it. There is no choice about it. The only question is when. Old people are better off being careful so the treatments when they eventually do get it will be that much better. Everyone else needs to get back to work so the medical system, and far more importantly the food and water system, can keep working.

As for me personally, I do not wear gloves or masks and will not. I'd rather go to jail if it becomes state-mandated. For this reason I live apart from my boomer dad.

I am not taking this plague lightly. But there are things worse than getting sick, or even old people dying.

If I didn't like my parents I would not change anything about my life at this point. But it happens that I do. It is frustrating.

[Ibian]

The second wave will be the most deadly because people will be fatigued with all the restrictions and be then saying "fuck it let's get on with it, if they die, they die" (like Ibian).

Unfair. What I'm saying is that the risk of hundreds of millions of people starving to death outweighs the risk from this plague.

The economy is fundamentally about food and water, and then everything else after that. And it's locked down. We can't continue much longer like this.

[Biodom]

The big question really for the long term is how much does this virus mutate  ?  If catching it previously is not a defence as is common with the normal cold humans get every year then we are in for a load of trouble, I imagine that road is alot longer then presently anticipated.   If it is just one and done phenomena then its not quite as bad despite the unfortunate lethality ongoing at present.

The whole possibility to a second bump to the curve and how big that might be is what scares me more then the current problem, bad as it is.  The longer term is the bigger worry because it cant be dodged forever, we dont know the full picture yet.   Maybe we get a vaccine and this enables human populations to perfectly counter this threat just like we have bubonic plague occur naturally every year but we also understand and can counter it now, Im not wanting to presume any negative just thats my concern over the unknowns.   Its also wrong to presume (imo) that its not a big deal, most will get past it just fine so whatever will be will be.


BTC approaching 200 DMA at 8000 and theres a slight stop here at 7777 which was previously seen on the early March lows.  Price on 1 hour bars has kept closing above 2 day average since the 25th

Germany opened up and it seems that almost immediately R0 went from 0.7 to 1.0
I agree with the supposition that we don't have a full picture yet. One thing is for sure-we can design medicines (drugs+vaccines) against it. How long they would remain efficacious -that's another story. However, I believe that with a multibillion $ effort one of several dozens (if not more) approaches would work, at least initially.

[Toxic2040]

the evening wall report


Bulls press the attack on $8k in long running uphill fight. Casualties mount at $7.8kish as the Bears counter attack with heavy resistance. Surely this furious assault can not continue much longer without one side or the other losing significant ground to the other camp. Stay tuned and maintain battle readiness. That is all.
1h



Support zone at $6.87k with interesting symmetry as a new tax year begins in the US
1h



Medium fibs from previous high shows distribution and accumulation and a possible key support/resistance zone around $9.5k

Still looking for support and perhaps a step up the ladder at the -0382 fib as the cloud flares dramatically towards the middle end of May    #dyor 
D

#stronghands

[Biodom]

Re btc, I intensely dislike the low volume smooth ascending triangle in every measure, but price.

Not going to predict btc price here, but increasing correlation of btc with the stock market is a nagging concern of mine.
Many (like JJG) think that it is very temporary and fleeting.
Maybe, but if institutional traders are the one's that drive current appreciation, than this correlation has some fundamentals.

Some stock market bears like Albert Edwards were poo-pooed for a couple of decades, but in one aspect he was right, we DID plunge into an "Ice age" condition in bonds first (with negative yields), then commodities (oil, copper, corn, sugar) just recently. The last "men" standing are equities, but he predicts that we eventually bottom up at below 2009 levels in SP500 (that is below 667)-crazy, I know, but what if he is right?. Every other long term trend this guy predicted panned out (in eventuality). After the ultimate bottom in equities, he predicts a furious equity rally together with higher inflation-thawing of the "ice age" and the start of the new "Spring". BTW, Raoul Pal posts something similar, but Edwards was at it since at least 2000 (he modeled it after the Japanese fiasco that started in 1989).

Now, the potential of an "ice age" in equities together with a stronger correlation between btc and equities is the main factor that bothers me the most.
Alternatively, could it be that strongly (and maybe even intensely) rallying bitcoin would be THE factor that brings the whole world out of the "ice age"/deflation/low activity?
Maybe, and that's the hope.

[jojo69]

action

[Bitcoinaire]

action

CUT! Take 1,494......

[JayJuanGee]

That's cute and all but purchasing power is still measured in the local fiat.

Sure, of course, but if some normie wants to call themselves a millionaire or billionaire based on having either .01BTC or 10BTC respectively, then it may be within the reach of a lot of normies to accomplish that... .. and maybe more difficult to achieve such status, especially the billionaire one in 5 to 10 years... at least not for normies.

Of course, I am no pie in the sky fucktwat to believe that we only measure matters in satoshis, but having goals to accumulate satoshis remain real and achievable and also likely to increase your dollar wealth too, especially if you have at least a 5 to 10 year timeline and you are in an ongoing process of accumulating them currently... rather than waiting until later when BTC prices (and even the price of satoshis) are likely to get a lot higher, especially in terms of how many dollars they are likely to cost down the road... based on pretty solid fundamentals and decent price prediction models, too.

[jojo69]

we goin' to the moon boys

[Toxic2040]

re: btc update


Bull forces have exploited a weakness along the right salient to breach resistance at $7.8k

Using mind tricks to draw the enemy close, Bulls deployed the fearsome Darth Maul candle to the dismay of shorters everywhere. Its yet to be seen if bullish offense can exploit the gap in the Bear defensive line to continue the assault to the next objective...$8k   

Stay tuned as we follow this developing story. #dyor





1h

#stronghands

[VB1001]

We finally broke 7,800

$7,874

Next target 8,000 🚀

Good morning, colleagues in quarantine.

[kellrobinson]

Good morning, colleagues in quarantine.

This isn't a quarantine.
One quarantines only sick people.
If the isolated is the entirety of the healthy population, then
it's population confinement

[jojo69]

moon I tell ya'

[cafetools]

7900 here we come! at 7892

[Toxic2040]

re: moon


$7.9k pierced and climbing...bring forth the trebuchet to begin reducing $8k fortifications. That is all.


1h

#stronkhands

[El duderino_]

this would be a great time for a real breakout

For damn sure, almost 8K

And indeed a 5-dig break out pre halving would be ultimate sweet

[NeuroticFish]

7900 here we come! at 7892

Good morning WO.
Observing 7923$ and feeling good. Waiting for 8000 and beyond

[El duderino_]

It’s time to take out my laptop a bit more and bring some spam/eeeuhm color in this thread again 

Real life resto would also help that problem 

[cafetools]

Is 7950 a good time to sell? And buy a rebound at about $7880?