Re btc, I intensely dislike the low volume smooth ascending triangle in every measure, but price.
Not going to predict btc price here, but increasing correlation of btc with the stock market is a nagging concern of mine.
Many (like JJG) think that it is very temporary and fleeting.
I suppose that might be a fair characterization of my position in terms of my attempts to stress that I find it problematic when people seem to be emphasizing correlation on a short term basis, and of course, from time to time, we are going to experience short term correlation whether we are referring to bitcoin or any other asset class.
An ongoing unique aspect of bitcoin concerns trying to figure out where the fuck is its place, and is it really a new asset that is on an exponential s-curve adoption phase or will this speculative exponential s-curve adoption end up petering out.
For sure, one thing about the future is that we cannot really know it, even when with bitcoin we seem to have a lot of great facts that should inform any of us who are really attempting to study and understand the space. Some people take longer than others to appreciate the contributions of bitcoin and the future potential contributions of it, and these differences in opinion and perspective can drag out bitcoin's adoption timeline, which also correlates with BTC price movements and momentum.
Maybe, but if institutional traders are the one's that drive current appreciation, than this correlation has some fundamentals.
There are all kinds of shifting theories regarding who is driving bitcoin's price appreciation and/or various aspects of adoption/development, and the level of dominance of institutional traders remains only one aspect of it. I doubt that we can fairly say that institutional traders dominate, and no matter what phase of adoption, the largest traders are going to try to manipulate BTC with whatever tools are available to them. Sure, in the earlier days, there were not as many tools to short BTC, and in the earlier days there were not as many large players who were settling BTC in dollars, yet in the end, BTC bears and even some of the traditional financial players like to talk a BIG game in regards to their ability to control bitcoin and to cause it to be like any other reined in asset (such as gold), but bitcoin still is not even close to the same as gold in terms of physically demanding possession of the asset, which can pretty easily be done in bitcoin and can cause a considerable amount of risk for any of the traditional players to be trading bitcoin that they do not have... but yeah, I surely don't claim to know whether the BIG talkers are going to be able to manipulate bitcoin in the ways that they try to suggest that they are able to accomplish and/or if the ability of BTC HODLers to claim their coins is going to end up biting those fucktards in the ass.
Some stock market bears like Albert Edwards were poo-pooed for a couple of decades, but in one aspect he was right, we DID plunge into an "Ice age" condition in bonds first (with negative yields), then commodities (oil, copper, corn, sugar) just recently.
Bitcoin is differentiable from those assets, that's for sure... but sure bitcoin might correlate in some short term plays, too.
The last "men" standing are equities, but he predicts that we eventually bottom up at below 2009 levels in SP500 (that is below 667)-crazy, I know, but what if he is right?. Every other long term trend this guy predicted panned out (in eventuality). After the ultimate bottom in equities, he predicts a furious equity rally together with higher inflation-thawing of the "ice age" and the start of the new "Spring". BTW, Raoul Pal posts something similar, but Edwards was at it since at least 2000 (he modeled it after the Japanese fiasco that started in 1989).
Even in an ice age, there are likely asset classes that might crash less, and probably bitcoin and PMs have just as good of a chance, and in the end, you have to decide what you are going to do an how you are going to allocate.
Yeah, Ice ages could last for decades, but even Japan was not the reserve currency at the time of its ice age, so dynamics are different than trying to use the japanese situation to predict what might happen this time around in your seemingly long-term hypothetical apocalyptic scenario.
Now, the potential of an "ice age" in equities together with a stronger correlation between btc and equities is the main factor that bothers me the most.
Seems to me that bitcoin is way the fuck too new to be making those kinds of long term correlations... but hey, Biodom, as far as I remember, you have been bothered about long term correlation of BTC and equities for a decently long period of time, and you were seeing correlation, even during periods of considerable bitcoin upspurts such as April to June 2019 and October 25, 2019. You just consider those signals as aberations and continue to want to see bitcoin as correlated in spite of what seems to be decent evidence that bitcoin does not really correlate as much as peep (including ur lil selfie) seem to want to identify such ongoing correlation.
Alternatively, could it be that strongly (and maybe even intensely) rallying bitcoin would be THE factor that brings the whole world out of the "ice age"/deflation/low activity?
Maybe, and that's the hope.
I doubt that is the ONLY hope for bitcoin, and even if bitcoin remains flat while all the other assets plunge, that would still be bullish as fuck for bitcoin, even while the bitcoin doom and gloomers (naysayers) would be proclaiming bitcoin to have been a failure because it did not experience exponential upward growth as was projected in the stock to flow model. Fuck that. We do not have to follow stock to flow in order for bitcoin to be successful, especially if there ends up being a system of depreciation of all other asset classes and bitcoin merely just stays or does not depreciate as much as the others.
In the end, a central question still becomes whether you or anyone else who might be perceiving bad outcomes for bitcoin in all of this, whether you feel that you need to change your own personal strategy or approach whether that is reallocating or changing how your new money is allocated.. where you going to put it? Is bitcoin in a worse situation relative to your previous thinking in regards to what is going on with the macro space? I doubt that we really have any meaningful evidence showing that bitcoin is likely to underperform in comparison to other assets in the coming years, but hey, reasonable minds can differ even in light of seemingly bullish as fuck conditions for bitcoin, currently
(caveat.. dyor, ymmv, btmfd).
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