Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HairyMaclairy]

Maybe, but alot of the antibody tests are reporting 10 - 15% false positive rates.

You combine a 10% false positive rate with a failure to do random sampling (the people who volunteer for antibody testing think they have caught C19 or else you pick people already in hospital....) and you can't really draw any meaningful conclusions about the infection rate in the general population.

New York State sampling of random 15,000 people in grocery stores seems representative enough.

12.3% positives in the whole State.
19.9% positives in NYC.

About 2% in rural areas.

If you have a false positive rate of between 10 - 15%, I’m not sure you can learn anything from a 12.3% positivity rate.  

That’s pretty much exactly the result you would expect if no one had it.  

Also keep in mind that grocery stores are not random samples.  You still have to volunteer to be tested = self selecting sample.  People who think they have it, are much more likely to volunteer.   If 1 in 50 shoppers volunteer, you can do the math.  

[kellrobinson]

In order to assess bitcoin’s price for investment purposes we need a long term perspective.
Now we identify a monotonic trend, which I'll call the attractor, and determine a method to compare current price to that trend.



How long it takes to break even at the price attractor serves as a useful criterion to judge the loftiness of the current price.
For example, on July 1 2014 bitcoin cost $638.25.  It took 879 days (yellow line) for the attractor (red curve) to reach that price.
In other words, it would take 879 days for coins bought on July 1 2014 to break even at the attractor.
Bitcoin's price history maps on this "break-even days" function.



Break-even days tells us how favorable the current exchange rate is for investing.
Low break-even days indicates a good buy.  An excessively high break-even time (perhaps 1000 days) means sell.
At intermediate values, you could gradually increase and decrease your bitcoin holdings in inverse proportion to the break-even days indicator.

Of course the critical question is whether the underlying trend continues to hold.
For about ten years, the attractor served as a reliable indicator of support that bitcoin always tended toward, when not in periods of mania, and didn't break below.
When the legacy markets crashed in March 2020, bitcoin's price broke through this long-established trend dramatically.
Bitcoin's subsequent behaviour, in my opinion, vindicates the robustness of the attractor. 
Price immediately rose after the crash without signs of weakness, met the attractor, and proceeded promptly into postive territory.
The crypto absorbed severe exogenous shock and shook it off like nothing.  As the saying goes, honey badger don't care.

[Last of the V8s]

Good of you to come out of your shell, Monsieur de la Hairy. You even seem to be making some sense. Congrats

[Wekkel]

This ‘break even’ chart looks lovely. Where can we find the source?

[AlcoHoDL]

In order to assess bitcoin’s price for investment purposes we need a long term perspective.
Now we identify a monotonic trend, which I'll call the attractor, and determine a method to compare current price to that trend.



How long it takes to break even at the price attractor serves as a useful criterion to judge the loftiness of the current price.
For example, on July 1 2014 bitcoin cost $638.25.  It took 879 days (yellow line) for the attractor (red curve) to reach that price.
In other words, it would take 879 days for coins bought on July 1 2014 to break even at the attractor.
Bitcoin's price history maps on this "break-even days" function.



Break-even days tells us how favorable the current exchange rate is for investing.
Low break-even days indicates a good buy.  An excessively high break-even time (perhaps 1000 days) means sell.
At intermediate values, you could gradually increase and decrease your bitcoin holdings in inverse proportion to the break-even days indicator.

Of course the critical question is whether the underlying trend continues to hold.
For about ten years, the attractor served as a reliable indicator of support that bitcoin always tended toward, when not in periods of mania, and didn't break below.
When the legacy markets crashed in March 2020, bitcoin's price broke through this long-established trend dramatically.
Bitcoin's subsequent behaviour, in my opinion, vindicates the robustness of the attractor.  
Price immediately rose after the crash without signs of weakness, met the attractor, and proceeded promptly into postive territory.
The crypto absorbed severe exogenous shock and shook it off like nothing.  As the saying goes, honey badger don't care.

Very useful, thanks.

The graphs clearly show that the times around the Halving events (2012, 2016, 2020) are some of the best times to buy Bitcoin. Rather obvious to many of us, but it's very nice to see it pictured graphically so clearly.

[JayJuanGee]

In order to assess bitcoin’s price for investment purposes we need a long term perspective.
Now we identify a monotonic trend, which I'll call the attractor, and determine a method to compare current price to that trend.



How long it takes to break even at the price attractor serves as a useful criterion to judge the loftiness of the current price.
For example, on July 1 2014 bitcoin cost $638.25.  It took 879 days (yellow line) for the attractor (red curve) to reach that price.
In other words, it would take 879 days for coins bought on July 1 2014 to break even at the attractor.
Bitcoin's price history maps on this "break-even days" function.



Break-even days tells us how favorable the current exchange rate is for investing.
Low break-even days indicates a good buy.  An excessively high break-even time (perhaps 1000 days) means sell.
At intermediate values, you could gradually increase and decrease your bitcoin holdings in inverse proportion to the break-even days indicator.

Of course the critical question is whether the underlying trend continues to hold.
For about ten years, the attractor served as a reliable indicator of support that bitcoin always tended toward, when not in periods of mania, and didn't break below.
When the legacy markets crashed in March 2020, bitcoin's price broke through this long-established trend dramatically.
Bitcoin's subsequent behaviour, in my opinion, vindicates the robustness of the attractor. 
Price immediately rose after the crash without signs of weakness, met the attractor, and proceeded promptly into postive territory.
The crypto absorbed severe exogenous shock and shook it off like nothing.  As the saying goes, honey badger don't care.

You made those graphs yourself, kellrobinson - or did you get them from somewhere?

[HairyMaclairy]

Good of you to come out of your shell, Monsieur de la Hairy. You even seem to be making some sense. Congrats

Let’s not rush to judgment now

Good to see you hale and hearty

[becoin]

Vegeta is back guys

... shall we play a game?

To play a game you must have some bitcoins and you have not for you've already sold yours in anticipation of lower price.

[jojo69]

Hairy!

welcome back!

now get the fuck back in your house

[Cryptotourist]

Vegeta is back guys

... shall we play a game?

To play a game you must have some bitcoins and you have not for you've already sold yours in anticipation of lower price.

He has gold. Gold and silver.

[El duderino_]

Welcome back sire HM, so you did hear my call 

[VB1001]

It is good to see that the majority returned, where to be better than here.

[becoin]

Vegeta is back guys

... shall we play a game?

To play a game you must have some bitcoins and you have not for you've already sold yours in anticipation of lower price.

He has gold. Gold and silver.

There is nothing wrong in having gold and silver. But you must also have bitcoins! The perfect hedge of having bitcoins is to also have gold and silver. And the perfect hedge of having gold and silver is to also have bitcoins.

[kellrobinson]

This ‘break even’ chart looks lovely. Where can we find the source?

Hey, all who asked about the graphs.  I did them myself.
attractor is
10^(0.093928*D^0.5-1.699)
where D is days since Sept 8, 2010
If you're good with spreadsheets, you can work from there.

[HairyMaclairy]

Hairy!

welcome back!

now get the fuck back in your house

Yeah.  So I started a vegetable garden.  And the fucking possums are eating (ate) all my hot chili peppers.  Everything else is fine tho.  

Welcome back sire HM, so you did hear my call  

Thanks Dude. I did hear a little ding-a-ling.  

It is good to see that the majority returned, where to be better than here.

I came back for halvening party.  Someone remind me what block height we are waiting for?

[Cryptotourist]

There is nothing wrong in having gold and silver. But you must also have bitcoins! The perfect hedge of having bitcoins is to also have gold and silver. And the perfect hedge of having gold and silver is to also have bitcoins.

Agreed.
Missed the side story, but agreed.


Hairy Maclairy,
on time for the wildest ride,
so pleased to see you.

#haiku

[Last of the V8s]

I came back for halvening party.  Someone remind me what block height we are waiting for?

630,000. current is 628,710
but nothing will happen. except drunkenness

edit: so, under 9 days

[becoin]

Hairy!

welcome back!

now get the fuck back in your house

Yeah.  So I started a vegetable garden.  And the fucking possums are eating (ate) all my hot chili peppers.  Everything else is fine tho.  

Welcome back sire HM, so you did hear my call  

Thanks Dude. I did hear a little ding-a-ling.  

It is good to see that the majority returned, where to be better than here.

I came back for halvening party.  Someone remind me what block height we are waiting for?

630 000.
Oh well, the real party will be at 666 666.

[Cryptotourist]

Oh well, the real party will be at 666 666.

Wicked!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgnClrx8N2k

[HairyMaclairy]

I came back for halvening party.  Someone remind me what block height we are waiting for?

630,000. current is 628,710
but nothing will happen. except drunkenness

edit: so, under 9 days

You have just inspired me to dive into the very back of the liquor cabinet. 

I think this is from the late 1980s.  Should I drink it?