Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OutOfMemory]

Actually i've been waiting for the male-british-gay version of Jeanne d'Arc for too long.
But i fear Hollywood will annoy us with Joan Rambo first 
Sigh...

I can't wait to watch that show where they portray Anne Boleyn as black.

Fuck this Goddamn space rock.

It is what it is.
Try to make the best out of it. You got one chance 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

Well look at that!  Seems we got a decent bounce.  But now the question is what next...  the volume and all the other signs are pointing to breaking down.  And being the last day of the year coming up you would think the bears and bulls have a little shenanigans planned for the next 24-48... SUCH FUN watching the walls!

Highest Daily volume candle since October 6th on CB? Not convinced volume favours the bears anymore, even if was previously the case (and when you posted such an observation).



Price is struggling to get over the 200 Day MA & VPVR point of control around $48K, but otherwise looks neutral short to mid-term while remaining at this level. Quite simply, a rejection from this price is again bearish and a break above is again bullish. Hence $48K always being a key price level for me.  Notably, the bears yet again failed to push prices lower than $46K, that instead attracted considerable buying pressure.

For now the trend remains sideways, with buyers stepping in below $48K and sellers stepping in above it. Until this narrative breaks, price remains undecided in a short to mid-term. Price has otherwise bounced from some longish-term support, which is a positive sign, but requires closing above $48K as well as moving back above $50K for confirmation. Otherwise is nothing more than another dead cat bounce.

While not being an expert in Wycoff accumulation theory, I am beginning to see this pattern within the current short-term trend:


Needless to say, it requires confirmation by a breakout above the current resistance level around $51K. Looks similar though.

The Wyckoff accumulation phase is a sideways and range bound period that occurs after a prolonged downtrend. This is the area where larger players try to build positions.

I have always been drawn to the wyckoff model.  Just like many other forms of somewhat complex TA models I wonder if we are looking at animals in the clouds (speaking of clouds... that is the one TA discipline I COMPLETELY do NOT understand, although I enjoy our Toxic's charts).

But I think what is interesting me at THIS particular moment is we have several interesting factors aligning at the same moment.  The dateline being the most unusual one.  With the tax implications as well as the futures expiration obviously taking a role.

Obviously Bitcoin might cross into the new year and just keep plowing along sideways overall between 30-65k for months, or even forever (Laura), but it's pretty hard to imagine.

I feel like we are witnessing the biggest game of global financial chicken ever played.

And yet a guaranteed winning move is very easy to pull off...  And though I am watching the charts like crazy, I am playing the same game I have for over a decade.  Hold.  Maybe buy a little.  Play with my nodes.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shahzadafzal]

WO bros at their best….      
How are the moves?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Hence $48K always being a key price level for me.

$48k for you, and $42k for me, and surely for me $45k or sub $45k would start to get my attention more, merely because at that point, we would be getting close to my area of interest... so still seems like nothing to write home about, even though it would feel better for me to be higher in the $42k to $62k range rather than lower... right in the middle would be nice.. but bitcoin does not tend to want to do nice..

   


So we (royal that is) need to try to roll with the punches, whatever those might be.

Needless to say, it requires confirmation by a breakout above the current resistance level around $51K. Looks similar though.

The Wyckoff accumulation phase is a sideways and range bound period that occurs after a prolonged downtrend. This is the area where larger players try to build positions.

Not a bad idea that we might have a wee bit of some stuckness in our current price arena.. and surely there might be some desires to try to get the BTC price to go down more, but realization that there might be some difficulties getting the price to go down lower.. so if you cannot get the price to go down lower, then you might engage in some accumulation while rethinking the matter..... so if you are wanting to focus on a smaller range of largely where we have been in the past 28 days-ish of mostly $46k to $52k, then sure there might be a question of whether we are going to be breaking up or down from there.. and for sure we are even in the lower end of that range in the past 3 days-ish....

more crying...  

Of course for me, if we were to be trying to calling odds for a break out then the smaller range $46k to $48k is most immediate then the $46k to $52k becomes a bit broader but still remains decently immediate.. so yeah, should these little mini-battles be all noise?  and can we get back into the middle of the broader $42k to $62k range in order to be able to relax a wee bit more?

For sure, I can see how this current range can become quite depressing for some folks, and surely could motivate the shaking of a few more weak hands.. and if enough week hands are shaken with some further hard pushes towards testing support, the bears might be able squeak out some additional victories.. whether it is in the cards, I am not sure, and surely since I consider the overall framework to be in a bull market, I am going to continue to assign any odds of breaking out for any of the ranges to the upside.. even if they might be slight and there is a certain amount of testing of the resolve for any of us when we continue to have movement within a price arena that continues to be so low on the various broader ranges and if we do end up getting serious testing of $42k-ish..... absent some kind of another quick wick..  I might have to re-jigger some of my own fleshing out of DOWNity thoughts....

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Hello world Observer family, me again Shamm
I will not active here since last week cause we were hit by a typhoon and I save my baterry percentage. But know my neighbor offer me to charge my phone cause they have a generator.

I want to greet you all a happy HAPPY NEW YEAR 🎊

Would really suck to be out of power for a week... or intermittent power for that kind of duration.. Helps to remind some of us, including yours truly that some people do spend more time with some of the areas that some of us sort of take for granted, whether that is power or internet... or even food and water concerns.

Many of us realize that the internet is spreading more and more to locations that it had not been very accessible, so there are probably a decent number of people who had not had very good internet connections who might be learning about bitcoin for the first time.. and considering if it could somehow speak to their regular life conditions.. whether it is electricity or internet or even food supplies.. and of course, more affluent people will be able to afford generators, but sometimes people will not be in a good position to even have a generator.. or the generator might not be reliable....

Surely you remind us Shamm.. and happy new year to you, too... Does bitcoin resonate with some of the people who are having difficulties connecting to the internet for a variety of reasons?  I think that it can, but surely, there can be some hard sells in regards to the value of bitcoin when access to the internet/electricity might sometimes not be very reliable.

This is some good shit 



This road patch is also going to be soon degraded with time like his image because doge is doge which means it is shitcoin.

Doge was the original stable coin. Trading at 30 sats for so long. I see it stable @ $1 if they can reduce the fee structure and initiate a burn of sorts to make it more deflationary.


What is going to happen to all the stable coins when the currency that they are representing becomes hyper-inflated?
 

I could see doggie stable at $.001.. perhaps?  Don't mean to be spreading too many pleasant thoughts about a shitcoin that we probably should not be getting into any details regarding how shitty it happens to be.

Actually i've been waiting for the male-british-gay version of Jeanne d'Arc for too long.
But i fear Hollywood will annoy us with Joan Rambo first 
Sigh...

I can't wait to watch that show where they portray Anne Boleyn as black.

Fuck this Goddamn space rock.

As long as there are people who can see and fight the nonsense we will eventually get back to where we need to be.  This madness cannot last forever.

Though there are times I am close to giving up...

For a second, I thought that you were talking about the various policy reactions to the virus.. which seem more important to be concerned about how crazy that shit is.. now social justice roles in films.. I suppose there might be questions regarding what people are willing to watch.. but who knows, some of it has already been going quite a long way.. so I am not sure how to go back on some of the crazy in terms of social role depictions and reiteration and people believing it.. It's like some of the other social justice issues around food that contributes to some people becoming vegan and really believing it.. or believing that energy usage is bad.. even though there may well be good arguments in there regarding how some companies might put costs on society through their behaviors whether pollution or not paying for some of their consumption... which all connects to bitcoin too... .. everything connects to bitcoin, even rambling thoughts.

~snip
We would likely need some mutually agreeable escrow.. so another thing that I am thinking is where the fuck is

@Dabs

when you need him?
~also snip

 What with 4 different diets and 40 flights of stairs 3X per day, he is far too busy shedding the winter weight to worry about escrow.   

Fair enough.  We may have to find someone else.,. that is if Biodom and I can even come close to agreeable terms on a bet.. sure we have some differences that seem like they could be bettable.. but are we going to be able to put those terms in a bet...

Just in regards to the $200k plus scenario in a 9 months or a year.. if I am placing it at between 1/4 odds and 1/3 odds, but Biodom is placing it at 1%, he might be willing to bet me something like 50 to 1.. and then either of us could profit.. because I end up having better odds than I believe to exist in reality and he would have better odds too because he puts the odds at 99 to 1.

In regards to getting back above $62k, I surely put that at greater than 50/50.. but I doubt that Biodom has really fleshed out his odds very well, even though he made some pretty strong statement about us supposedly staying in a $30k to $65k range for the next year.. so for sure it seems that we could have some room on something like that..  because he seems to be putting the odds way below  50/50.   I mean of course, I would proclaim that we are going to break above $65k at some point in the next year.. and maybe we could bet something like 1 for 1 on that, since I am putting it at greater than 50% odds.. .. so my placing it at somewhere between 50% and 55% odds in my December 16 outline of odds does seem to cause some room in which a 1 to 1 bet for me would end up being fair and profitable for me because it is allowing me to profit if I am right about the odds being greater than 50/50.. but just barely.. but still.. And, he would profit too because from his earlier statement he seems to believe that the odds are way lower than 50/50.. and sure I would like to here what kind of odds that he gives such a proposition of staying between $30k and $65k for the next year... that's kind of my most recent thinking on the topic.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Obviously Bitcoin might cross into the new year and just keep plowing along sideways overall between 30-65k for months, or even forever (Laura), but it's pretty hard to imagine.

Isn't that Biodom's price range talking point?  Or are you getting that price range from somewhere else?  How come you are picking the same price range as Biodom?  Am I missing something?

By the way, I can agree with a characterization that $30k to $65k could last for several months, but holy shit, not very likely to last a year.. or at least less than 50/50... if those kinds of probability numbers come off as bold to you.

I feel like we are witnessing the biggest game of global financial chicken ever played.

Hello?  it is called war.. have you heard of that concept?

It is also called the largest wealth transfer in the history of man.  Of course, you have heard about that and maybe you don't want to be so dramatic about it?

Of course, the bitcoin price, which seems to be quite related to this, is not going to go smoothly during such a process/transition.. and surely there is likely some desperation in various fiat systems, even though aspects of fiat do seem to be in a kind of lull too with their various inflated prices that are fueled by ongoing dollar irresponsibilities.

And yet a guaranteed winning move is very easy to pull off...  

You are not going to get any argument from me on that point.

And though I am watching the charts like crazy, I am playing the same game I have for over a decade.  Hold.  Maybe buy a little.  Play with my nodes.

Might as well.. there's no real reason to panic.

































Yet




















 

[psycodad]

Not sure if I am gonna make it till it is midnight here, so here I go prematurely with my good wishes:

Wish y'all an awesome 2022 with much health and such happiness -
and a lot of green candles for BTC (while DOGE goes back to sub 100 Sat  )!

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

[philipma1957]

Obviously Bitcoin might cross into the new year and just keep plowing along sideways overall between 30-65k for months, or even forever (Laura), but it's pretty hard to imagine.

Isn't that Biodom's price range talking point?  Or are you getting that price range from somewhere else?  How come you are picking the same price range as Biodom?  Am I missing something?

By the way, I can agree with a characterization that $30k to $65k could last for several months, but holy shit, not very likely to last a year.. or at least less than 50/50... if those kinds of probability numbers come off as bold to you.

I feel like we are witnessing the biggest game of global financial chicken ever played.

Hello?  it is called war.. have you heard of that concept?

It is also called the largest wealth transfer in the history of man.  Of course, you have heard about that and maybe you don't want to be so dramatic about it?

Of course, the bitcoin price, which seems to be quite related to this, is not going to go smoothly during such a process/transition.. and surely there is likely some desperation in various fiat systems, even though aspects of fiat do seem to be in a kind of lull too with their various inflated prices that are fueled by ongoing dollar irresponsibilities.

And yet a guaranteed winning move is very easy to pull off...  

You are not going to get any argument from me on that point.

And though I am watching the charts like crazy, I am playing the same game I have for over a decade.  Hold.  Maybe buy a little.  Play with my nodes.

Might as well.. there's no real reason to panic.

Yet




















 

Well I am giving 35k-70k for most of 2022 as a possible slot to ride in

but I could say 30-65k

or 40-75k


I would be surprised if one of the picks above is not right from now all 10/10/22

so lets say 30k-75k. keep it fuzzy and call it the Betty White (R.I.P) Covid-19 factor

My theory is Betty White Cut a deal with the boss  and died in 2021 so that covid-19 goes rip in 2022 and we start a super boom in the fall.

Makes as much sense as stock to flow or does it?

I GOT SOME AT 46K TODAY $200

and my $50  buy is set for tonight.

[JimboToronto]

Not sure if I am gonna make it till it is midnight here, so here I go prematurely with my good wishes:

Wish y'all an awesome 2022 with much health and such happiness -
and a lot of green candles for BTC (while DOGE goes back to sub 100 Sat  )!

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Here in Ontario they're shutting down the bars at 10:00PM due to Omicron restrictions so we'll be celebrating at midnight UTC which is 7:00 local time.

Gotta protect our local pub's liquor license but they're not gonna spoil our celebration.

HAPPY NEW YEAR to all.

[serveria.com]

Happy New Year! 

Many Green Dildos in 2022! 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Mbitr]

[Shamm]

<...>

To be honest all of you here, during the crisis that encountered I am so thankful that I have a little bit amount of BTC left in my wallet and that's a big help to me. When the internet came back I took the opportunity to convert to fiat and send it to my bank account.
The money from BTC support and feed me for 1 week without work I'll buy some materials to rebuild my house cause it's broken when some trees fall into my roof.
Without BTC that day I think I am nothing cause the supplies from our government did not yet receive.

January 1 2022 5:10 am
Price of BTC to Philippine money
1 BTC =  2,355,244.67 PHP

[Biodom]

Happy upcoming New year!

I feel kind of sad about BW not hitting that 100, but it is what it is.

[eXPHorizon]

Not to brag but I have enough money to not work this year anymore. L

Happy New Year Everyone !