Times like these I just don't look at the monetary value of my various wallets. I avoid looking.
What do you mean? The
monetary value, measured in
money (i.e., BTC), remains constant at a rate of 1 BTC = 1 BTC.
There are a lot of contradictions and irony in your above statement, and I am trying to sort in my mind where to start in order to attempt to potentially help anyone who actually believes such dumb thoughts like that.
Don't get me wrong, I am not picking on you in particular, and part of the reason that I tend to respond to quite a few of your posts is that you tend to articulate yourself well and you make a lot of good points, but also you say really dumb shit while trying to act like you are correct in your way of framing matters and that your view is a compelling one that should be shared/adopted (as if it were common sense) blah blah blah.
That’s a fancy way of saying that, for whatever reason, you are afraid that people will see that I’m right. I will take that as a compliment, so no hard feelings.
Ok... believe what you will. It's a free country.. last time I checked... which was a while back, admittedly.
You yourself have said some stupendously dumb things in reply to me.
I am not going to deny the possibility of such.
I wrote a long-ish post to address (a small portion of) that much earlier; but I withheld it for extra review of what is good and necessary, constructive Bitcoin discussion, versus what’s just scoring points in an Internet argument. I don’t generally waste my time with the latter—and I especially don’t want to with you,
you “fucking goofball”.
No problem. We can try to stick with substance.. and sometimes the personal zingers should be merely considered emphasis in regards to the substance anyhow....
Difference of opinion perhaps? Philosophies, practices, etc.
That said, it does show how weak your argument is when you take up a pattern of little personal jabs that are patently inapplicable to me, and that add nothing to the substance of the discussion. And you are inviting me to dish some of it back to you—insofar as such is applicable to you.
I doubt that the personal parts would be the important parts.. .and I stand by my earlier response because I am pretty sure that there was substance contained therein.. rather than getting worried at whether i labeled what you said or you as dumb.. I asm largely saying what you said is dumb and also that sometimes you repeat the same ideas.. I think that I adequately backed up why I believe that it is dumb in my earlier responses..
I know that I am repeating myself, but the reality of the matter is that we are in a very fucking early transitionary period in which the level of BTC adoption is so damned low (less than 1% of the world population and also less than 1% of the world's monetary value in BTC), so in that regard there is going to both be a lot of volatility and also there is going to be a lot of ongoing upside potential... and neither of those actual on-the-ground reality dynamics justify either putting all your brain power into using BTC as your accounting mechanism or even speculating that you need to hold all of your value (or even high portions of your value) in BTC in order to profit the fuck out of attaining and maintaining a reasonable/prudent stake in bitcoin... which these days I consider 1% to 25% of your overall investment portfolio (as you measure it) to be a good, fair and reasonable starting point (that is purposefully so fucking broad in terms of my recommendation that you (or any other newbie normie) will actually need to personally tailorize it)
I fully recognize that >99% of people are not prepared to become die-hard Bitcoin zealots right now, today, “BTC or bust”.
It is a well-known principle of history and of social change that every major movement needs a leading edge of activists. For Bitcoin, I would be honoured if I could consider myself one of those. Accordingly, I do my best to start by putting my money where my mouth is—to
live it, not only to talk about it.
Ok. we likely have a broader audience here. .and just does not seem to do a lot of good to take a real extreme position and then get screwed because bitcoin overly corrects.
If 0.1% of people form that leading cadre, then that opens the way for the next 1%. They, in turn, are the nucleus around which forms the next 10%. And it is an observed phenomenon that 10% of society can move the rest of society. Most people are inert—passive—followers only.
I believe that people and their value are going to naturally flow into BTC ofver ti e (yes.. Gresham's law again, and the most sound money being bitcoin and bitcoin ongoingly serving as the best of asymmetric bets that we have ever seen).
So from my perspective, there is no need to sacrifice yourself. What seems to happen is that people can invest into BTC and be ideological and end up killing two birds with one stone.. support an ideological commitment and end up getting richie at the same time... as long as there is no overdoing it in regards to making sure that all your expenses are covered.. and sure over invest is o.k... but you have to have your expenses covered and projected out too.. .. and I already explained the need to have your expenses and cashflow figured out for 6-24 months in advance, even if the cashflow might have some uncertainties and lack of steadiness.. there are ways to accomplish those kinds of projection matters out in conservative ways and in ways that allow for ongoing BTC accumulation that takes place 4-10 years or longer into the future (and even over accumulation).. and at the same time, likely setting up oneself to become richie in those kind of longer time frames.
I know also the principle of speaking to the audience. When I talk to newbies, I do not advise them to go all-in on BTC! Instead, since I have no personal experience with the “normal” way of doing this, I typically crib some talking points from posts I have read from JayJuanGee: Allocate a minor portion of your portfolio (say, 10%) to buying BTC, DCA, buy chunks in the dip if you can get a good price, and HODL.
Sounds good to me...normie newbies can start relatively small and work their way up.. of course.
Oh—and “don’t invest what you can’t afford to lose.” Blah, blah, blah. I know that speech perfectly, too. When it comes to BTC, I absolutely do not practice that—but I know how to preach it.
There is a value to attempt to practice what you preach.. sure you do not need to follow every single thing that you would preach to a newbie.. because the longer that you are in bitcoin the more you might be able to be more aggressive without devolving into gambling and of course newbie normies have to get used to various things in the beginning which could take several months to a year to get comfortable, because not all normie newbies learn as fast as Michael Saylor.
And, another valuable aspect does have to do with whether you are in a stage of BTC accumulation, maintenance or liquidation.. so it can also take a while to get through accumulation and into maintenance.. and personally I give less than two shits if you are more experienced in bitcoin, early stages of accumulation still involve a lot of the same steps in terms of DCA, buying on dips and lump sum investing as the primary strategies... at least from my perspective..
In other words, it takes a long time to build your investment portfolio.. and if you lose most or all of your principle, then you really should not be taking short cuts to make up for your fuck up.. you gotta start over...and you gotta go back to the same things that normie newbies have to do.. and the main difference between someone who is experienced in bitcoin versus a normie newbie is that you already should know what to do so in regards to assessing your own personal financial/psychological situation and you might be able to be more aggressive, but there are not really much if any short-cuts because you still have to make sure that all of your ongoing expenses are going to be covered so you do not get trapped into any kind of emergency situation in which you to have to sell at any time that is anything other than completely your own choosing and based on parameters that you likely already set including letting the BTC price come to you rather than forcing the matter.. or trying to rush certain aspects.. of course, you can rob a bank or somehow increase your cashflow (not that I am advocating breaking any laws or even getting involved in shitcoins or scams), so then you have a larger BTC stash, so sometimes increasing your available to be used for bitcoin cashflow is easier said than done, too..
Sadly, I have even sometimes even advised newbies to store coins on an exchange. Yes. Me, saying that! To the utterly clueless ones, who would have no hope whatsoever of securing a wallet on their Swiss-cheese, probably malware-infested devices. Those are the same ones who have no hope whatsoever of buying BTC anonymously, so I tell them just to do the KYC. Given the exclusive choice between “nocoiner” and “has some Bitcoin on a KYC exchange”, I will optimize for finding the least-bad realistic option.
of course there are levels.. and getting some exposure may well be better than not...
Priority #1 is to get them into BTC for even $100—even $50; for any amount, even if it is below the exchange’s withdrawal minimum!—and drill it into their heads never, ever to panic-sell.
Store it on a reputable exchange, in an account with 2FA, etc. Then, wait for Bitcoin to work its magic; sooner or later, as long as there is no panic-selling, the proud ownership of some itty bitty bitcoins will incite the desire for more bitcoins! Bitcoin is seductive. It only needs to make and maintain contact—thereafter, resistance is futile.
Fair enough.. it does tend to grow on folks especially if they don't screw up and they can continue to either buy small amounts or just hold for decently long periods.. such as 4 -10 years or more...and hopefully at some point they well figure out to hold some of their own keys.. but I do know some folks who have done quite well without holding their keys.. of course, we all know that is less than ideal for longer periods of time.. but there is OLY so much that any of us can do to lure folks away from employing the services of third party custodians.
As Bitcoin rises and/or they buy more (on my advice of a JJG-style DCA strategy), at some point, a hardware wallet will be a worthwhile purchase. Then, teach them how to do “not your keys”, “Be Your Own Bank”, etc. Then, help them to experience the thrill of total, direct control of their own money! Then—when they have enough BTC that they are willing to spend at least $100–200 on a way to secure it.
Yes.. some people have to learn on their own.. and I am not sure how much work I might be willing to do to teach them.. Are you willing to hold their hands for such a long time?
You probably see me as one of the most fanatical preachers of
never KYC!,
not your keys, not your coins!, and so forth. In my own life, I practice what I preach about that
(except for the “not your coins” part, when I do something foolish and out of character with a margin account—whoops—I guess I proved empirically that they aren’t my coins).
If I can turn around on a
dime and be so pragmatic about
that, then you had better not bet that I am blind to the realities on other issues.
Unless you are wagering against me. Please take that bet! I need to make some BTC. 
I have frequently thought about myself as competing with myself to figure out what I can best do in order to tailorize my BTC approach to my own finances and psychology.. So it is my belief that each person has to accomplish these kind os assessment for themselves whether they aspire to reach fuck you status or not or whether they are able to determine what is their fuck you status and then set forth strategies and practices to be able to reach it or not..
There is some individualized assessments regarding even figuring out what is each of our own fuck you status level that might well vary uon cost of living in whatever area hat we happen to be and if we actually have a preference to even try to reach it or not.
By the way.. I have never exactly said what my personal fuck you status level is, but I attempted to set a level of $1 million for westerners.. and then after March 2020, I started to suggest that such $1 million level would need to be doubled to $2 million, and I have heard arguments that there might need to be a higher level of increase just to maintain the equivalency of the earlier $1 million. .but for now, I am sticking with $2 million as the entry level stating level. and sure there could be some real life considerations that cause the need to increase that entry-level to higher than double the pre-March 2020 level. Each of us should attempt to be sufficiently competent enough to figure out what would be a good, reasonable and practical level for ourselves.
So ultimately part of my point would be that you have to assess for yourself and compete with yourself because it should not matter so much about what some random guy (referring to yours truly) on the interwebs might assess regarding what your financial and psychological situation is in respect to your various investments including and perhaps not limited to bitcoin should be or could be.
(Note well: I analyze each issue carefully. Treating Bitcoin as “like a stock” is not acceptable in any circumstance whatsoever! I will spend two hours explaining to a hopelessly clueless n00b that Bitcoin is nothing like a stock—then turn around and say to do KYC, keep coins on the exchange unless/until enough is accumulated to justify the purchase of a hardware wallet, etc. To do otherwise would be lying to a new investor in the investment prospectus, in addition to coupling BTC to stocks and opening the door to securities regulators. Do not argue with me: Take it up with the SEC, if that’s what you really want.)
But here, in the Wall Observer, my primary audience is die-hard Bitcoin fanatics who treat BTC as a lifestyle. I speak to them accordingly.
If WO mad hatters can’t handle my challenge to be even Bitcoinier, then who can?
I am still having some troubles understanding why it would matter very much, and of course each of us has to decide these kinds of matters regarding how we are going to treat our bitcoin allocation.. whether, how much and even how to go about it.
The only reason to get upset about the central bank shitcoin trade value is if you were playing around with margin.
I cannot really disagree with your overall point in regards to any suggestion that the employment of margin trading or any other financial instrument are way more advanced techniques than the vast majority of normies should be employing in terms of either their desires to accumulate BTC or to maintain their BTC holdings.. and sure there might be ways to employ such tools once any of us might reach a kind of status of very high BTC accumulation values and/or feeling that we are way overly allocated in BTC.. but still if we are using logic and/or reasonable assessments of our BTC holdings, we are most likely going to come to conclusions that we likely would not need to employ very high levels of employment of such tools in the event we want to use such tools to either continue to accumulate, maintain the value of our BTC holdings or even to try to inject some possibilities of exponentiality onto an asset class that is already seemingly quite exponential in the way that it is already designed (the "designed to pump forever" idea that is built into bitcoin).
By the way, my above paragraph is meant to be largely as an agreement with you, even though I realize that you personally are not emplying the prudence and reasonableness that you seem to recognize as being better practices (perhaps best practices).
I don’t disagree with you about that, either. You do understand that when I just went through five months of hell and destroyed my own assets with foolishness
that I had previously warned others against, I am urgently,
passionately warning those who don’t know better—which I did, which makes it worse for me.
Even after my recent experiences, I may try margin again someday. For example, if I were to devote serious time and effort to studying mathematical finance (I’ve been dabbling with it lately, on a “beginner dipping a toe in” level), become a Real Quant(TM), and create a thoroughly backtested algorithmic HFT bot based on a rigoroous probability model, then—well, then, at that point I would know if and how that bot should use leverage!
Until then, I will stay the hell away from margin.
And I don’t need it. I can write other bots, that do more basic stuff without risks... I’m working on that; it was my plan to save my bitcoins from debt that I otherwise had no way to repay.I will advise others accordingly.
Ok.
I disagree with your ongoing baloney insertion of likely to be misunderstood characterization of the dollar (and fiats) as shitcoins.. sure they are shittier than bitcoin overall, but they continue to serve quite a few purposes, including liquidity ideas and we still likely need to figure out ways in which we balance our investment portfolio holdings (including BTC) with them and even use those fiats to buy goods and services and of course to spend them first.. or towards the beginning of any spending that we might be doing...
The U.S. Dollar is one of the
worst shitcoins. The Euro isn’t much better, although it lacks the thrilling feature of the petrodollar house-of-cards.
If you’re blind to that, it is only because you can’t see beyond the mirage created by dollarized pricing.
Not shitcoins? WTF do you consider a “shitcoin”? Anything better than SHIB?
This image is something found searching the Web for historical gold pricing. The other images here are from:https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
Jay, I will become a SOL maximalist chasing passive income from delegated stake rewards plus 20,000% APY from Leveraged Yield Farming before I consider your absurd argument that central bank debt-fiat altcoins are not shitcoins. It would be less dumb.Ok. I made my points already and you made your points.. so why argue further about it at this time..? I suppose the subject is likely to come up again.. and maybe I will say something and maybe I won't.. Will have to cross that bridge when we get there.. if we do?
Your problem is that you only see that to which you are accustomed. Study some history.
I don't consider myself having any problems.
Become a long-term thinker—with a time horizon beyond “4 to 10 years”; that is “long-term” only to an adolescent.
I cannot tell if you are purposefully mischaracterizing what I tend to say about starting to invest into BTC .. kind of comes off as a strawman attack.
Attain a philosophical detachment from your own circumstances. You have plenty of life experience with investing—but history is the study of the life experience of billions of people, over the course of many lifetimes. Take off the blinkers that restrict your vision to the nice, comfortable world of what most people consider trustworthy. Most people are ignorant, ineducable, and terrifically gullible.
Again you are presuming some kind of a problem or some need that I might have or even that I might have been open to advice about how to make possible improvements.
For me, it seems that I already have enough things on my plate in terms of "things to do," so prioritizing remains within my discretion, too.
If cryptocurrencies are indeed currencies, then fiat is just a type of non-cryptographic altcoin. Some fiat monetary systems have worked well, historically—at least, for awhile—at least, as long as the same government remained in power and avoided internal corruption. That is like observing that, in my opinion, about one in a thousand altcoins is a meritorious project and, in a few cases, potentially even a good investment—maybe. The rest are shitcoins.
Is there a point?
Look at the above charts, imagine that they are for altcoins pumped by Twitter and Youtube “crypto influencers”, and then tell me again that those aren’t shitcoins. I will personally petition the CEO of Bitcoin to revoke your Bitcoin membership!
I hardly even understand the point that you are making.. It's not like I am not already aware of the various dynamics that you show in the charts.. so fucking what? It does not change any of the earlier points that I had already been making in terms of each of us needing to figure out our finances and how to balance our allocations in to BTC including developing our accumulation strategy and our target accumulation level which should then bring us to more of a maintenance stage.. which could take years to get there.. depending on if we have lump sums that we can allocate into bitcoin or if we have to rely upon more of a DCA type of strategy..
Many older investors who come into bitcoin might already have a decently strong investment portfolio that they can just reallocate parts of it into bitcoin, but sometimes even older folks have not established much if any of an investment portfolio and they get cocky in their 20s, 30s and even in their early 40s in terms of considering that they are going to be rich and all that pie in the sky bullshit without actually building an investment portfolio and then at some point they realize that time is escaping them they have not accumulated shit.. so then they end up being kind of fucked when it comes to their investment timeline becoming way shorter than it had been and they had not made much if any progress in their younger years.
I have already said several times that I came to bitcoin as an older investor.. so I had already established a pretty strong overall investment portfolio prior to even allocating into bitcoin.. but I also know how I got to the stage that I had gotten in building my prior to bitcoin investment portfolio, and I doubt that getting into bitcoin earlier will be helpful unless some prudence is exercised in terms of having a strategy especially if there is not any ability to have some lump sum abilities to invest into bitcoin. My point is that there can be a whole hell of a lot of advantages to having bitcoin as an option, but there still is need for action both in terms of building principle and not fucking it away by taking too many risks with it.. otherwise if you continue to take risks you have to continue to start over again and again when you lose all of your principle because you are gambling too much with too much of your principle.. it can take a while to build these skills, to see value in building principle building skills and see value in not gambling with principle..
[...]
not feeling too good with the recent low of $22,600 from about 3 hours ago, as I type this post...
..
TBH, if I had not wrecked myself, I would be feeling fine now. Either munching popcorn and watching the carnage, or ignoring it altogether—I didn’t even know about the July 2021 dip to $29k until long after it happened, because my attention was absorbed in other matters.
Protip to newbies: That is the virtue of keeping coins in your wallet where they belong. If you so desire, you can forget the about market—relax; have zero stress; just ignore it, turn off the computer, go outside and play in the sunshine—except when you want to trade, or you need to budget some spending.And if I had spare fiat, I would now be overjoyed.
Cheap discount bitcoins! I am not blustering when I say that I usually
love bear markets.
I am even tempted to wish for this one to last for awhile—to have BTC scrape along bouncing off 200 WMA for the next year, while I rebuild!
Well it is difficult to know how long we might be bouncing in or around the 200-Week MA... so maybe you will be able to buy more BTC at these prices, and maybe not.
Of course, the fewer BTC you have the less you would care about the BTC price going down.
But my own foolish mistakes do not justify wishing for others to suffer. I congratulate those who were more prudent, who are buying BTC right now. I’ll be lucky if this opportunity continues—if BTC takes some time grinding along more or less close to where I lost it; but I cannot wish for that.
Sure. you can wish for it.. but it may or may not happen... so there is that.
Edits: Fixed typos; there are probably more. Added an observation on the nature of “long-term” thinking. Vaguely clarified image sourcing. Other minor tweaks; ok, I will stop keeping a changelog here unless there are major alterations.
Yeah.,. sometimes it might not be necessary to say anything... but surely your choice.
Poll
