Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[death_wish]

Who keeps deleting WO posts?  Things are jumping around—again and again.  At this rate, WO’s page-count will soon dip below the Bitcoin price without any recovery in the latter.

Well, I'd venture to guess we could have page parity in one easy step.
....Just delete all your blah blah blah posts.... Win, win....

Indeed, that sounds like a good plan. Imagine having 2 JJG's on one single thread. Surely WO can't handle this much stress test.

I sense sarcasm, and i am fairly good at using, but bad at recognizing it.
Whatever, have my two cents:

I'd rather have to read or scroll through discussions between three JJG's than the nonsense that permabears, beggars, attention whores and toxic morons leave in this thread.
It's easy and quick to check a JJG-sized post for interesting information and scroll through it if not satisfied, while it's a nightmare to scroll through many one-liners of nonsense or brainless rants, even if they show in the form of "This User is on your ignore list" maskings. I respect JJG and death_wish for being serious about their opinions, and i share their (obvious) favor for detail. That's much better than those testosterone-laden posting catfights.

Don't you agree?

As a rule, in any public discussions, >90% of readers are lurkers.  With some of my recent substantive posts, I write primarily for the lurkers.  I am seeking to reach people with important substance; I do not care even a whit about “seeking attention” in the usual sense of that term.  Thus, although I appreciate thoughtful replies from WO regulars such as yourself, OOM, it is unimportant to me if I become generally unpopular here.

A few low-grade trolls have been yapping and nipping at my heels.  They thus show their true character.  They do not realize how it looks to the public, when they habitually follow my cogent, substantive posts with repetitive, ridiculous, irrelevant, sometimes factually false and libellous, oftentimes vulgar, always rude ad hominem personal attacks on me.  They also don’t realize that I have them ignore-listed, so I myself only see their posts either when someone quotes them (as here, in the internal quote), or when I take an archival snapshot of some page (I do that often).  Accordingly, they show themselves as spite-driven fools to my primary audience—without even getting my attention:  Losers get a lose-lose deal here.

Their ultimate objective, of course, is to drag me down to their level.  I mind the old proverb about wrestling with a pig:  You get muddied, and the pig enjoys it.  I have seen what happens, when decent people get dragged into the mud that way—take a look in the Reputation forum, and bring your barf-bag!  Taking the high road is much cleaner—especially in the eyes of those >90% lurkers.

It is for such reasons, OOM, that I was reluctant to reply to your thoughtful post.  I do not want indirectly to feed sirazimuth’s trolling.  I do not wish potentially to be dragged next into back-and-forth arguments about me, which are incited by smear-attacks and are liable to be quite dirty.  If he obsessively snipes at me, so what?  Why should I care?  WO is almost a free-fire zone; trolling is explicitly allowed in WO, as a special exception to the forum’s rule against trolling.  Here, he can troll to his heart’s content.  I am not obliged to pay him the attention that he craves.

Nonetheless, you raised some points much worthwhile for discussion.  I do not want to ignore that!

EDIT: I don't use ignore lists for a reason. Freedom of speech.

I myself never used ignore-lists before quite recently.  I have always wanted to see the full discussion.  If I deem someone generally not worth reading, I can skim.  For that purpose, my eyes and brain make a much better filter than an ignore-list; the ignore-list is a blunt tool.  Of note:  I still do not and will not ignore-list people simply because I find their opinions generally disagreeable.

Moreover, I have a supreme contempt for the general use of the Almighty Ignore-List as some sort of a comical non-punishment—sort of the opposite of a Facebook “Like” button.  So what if someone ignore-lists me?  Am I here to win a popularity contest?  If someone wants to ignore-list me, then I prefer for him to ignore-list me.  I have the self-confidence and self-esteem to know that if someone personally rejects me from spite or for other petty non-reasons, that’s not my loss.  Those who ignore-list me are ipso facto unworthy of reading my posts—and they are probably incapable of comprehending them, anyway.  My posts will be read by those who want to read them.

Now, however, I have discovered that ignore lists have one good use.  If ever you are being personally harassed by trolls, it is a mistake to give them what they want!  Ignore-list them, but take archival snapshots of relevant pages—just in case you ever fancy wasting time and effort with a reckoning.  They probably aren’t worth it.  They certainly aren’t worth even one minute of any sane person’s limited lifetime, perhaps unless (a) they hold significant positions of community trust and responsibility, and (b) they show dishonesty.  In that case, a reckoning would not merely be about settling personal scores in some petty Internet grudge-match.

As I have said before, one of the great distinctions between Bitcoin and most altcoins is that the Bitcoin community cleaned up some awful garbage early on—things even worse than what now commonly befouls most high-cap/mid-cap altcoin ecosystems!  But that process never ends.  Vigilance is always needed.  And sadly, this forum has regressed in recent years.  Corruption here has increased, not decreased.  Some outstanding contributors have disappeared—some in disillusionment.  The first principle behind Gresham’s Law is generally applicable, and it cuts both ways:  The good can chase out the bad, or the bad can chase out the good.

The problems with this forum are not problems with Bitcoin itself.  Bitcoin is thriving—Bitcoin itself is thriving, in its usage and its long-term prospects.  Nowadays, most major happenings in Bitcoinland occur far away from this forum.  Nonetheless, this is still a major venue for Bitcoin discussion—and it is Satoshi’s forum.  What is this forum worth?

Aside from such musings, I make efficient use of the ignore list just to save time and to clear clutter.  If you ever have any problems with users who want to follow you around obsessively and spit at you, then consider the ignore list as an efficient (non-)response.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[goldkingcoiner]

Indeed, that sounds like a good plan. Imagine having 2 JJG's on one single thread. Surely WO can't handle this much stress test.

His posts contain useful substance, that is, if you have the attention span to read through it.

I do try my best but it's too hot and Bitcoin is falling.

And I think that all of us can more or less agree that you are the mindrust for this season.

When Mindrust "mindrusted", he quietly left the WO thread.

But this new troll death_wish just never shuts the fuck up, spewing walls of garbage and nonsense.

Actually I think we may have laughed at him too much. Literally made a meme out of the man. Hopefully not the reason he left. :/

[JayJuanGee]

Let's be fair to mindrust though. He sold in panic and disappointment at the price he had bought. Although he was not overexposed as he claimed - 2 to 1 in favor of fiat is anything but overexposed.

There is quite a bit of variety of ways in which bitcoin HODLers/accumulators arrive at their "overexposed" assessment.  I have beaten this to death in a variety of ways, but it remains a topic that comes up so frequently because of there being so many ways in which folks come into bitcoin and then fact BTC's volatility can end up causing different assessments in regards to whether the overexposure (or over accumulation) came from investing dollar value or did it come from the BTC price appreciating and a failure/refusal to cash out while profits were higher.

For sure, we have to attempt to figure out "overexposure" from the financial and psychological position of the HODLer/accumulator, so in some senses there are going to be variables that are difficult to figure out, unless the HODLer/accumulator discloses those kinds of specifics to us.. and for sure if we happen to be the at-issue HODLer/accumulator, then we should be in the best position to figure out our own specifics in regards to both finances and psychology.. but we know that the reality of the matter is that sometimes it can be difficult for normies to really grapple with getting accurate assessments of either of their finances or their psychology, even though that information should be within their grasp to accomplish.

Mindrust did help us out quite a bit by being a decently longer-term forum member (and WO participant up until March 2020), and he seemed to have been pretty honest and specific about his finances and his psychology in the couple of years preceding his March 2020 panic... and yeah, he had showed quite a few signs of getting close to panicking prior to 2020.. which contributed to part of the unbelievable revelation when he did end up panicking in March 2020.

But still, even though he disclosed quite a few of his specifics, there are always going to be ways in which some of us (including him) are holding back some of the personal details.. it is not easy to disclose very many personal details, and maybe it is not even advisable, even though some members do seem to voluntarily choose to share quite a few of their specifics from time to time.I would imagine that mindrust regrets telling us so much, and that seems to be part of the reason that he refuses to come back to this thread.. and that's too bad.. and he also did get involved in some shitcoins too.. which may also make it difficult to come back here in his current avatar.. so would be a good reason to create an alternate identity if wanting to still participate in this thread but without that historical baggage.  

It is hard to blame him for not wanting to come back..  It seems like almost an impossibility..

never say never around here, though.

I am thinking that from what we may well know about mindrust specifically is that in the 2017 price run, he got caught up in a lot of shitcoins, so he made a shitton of mistakes, and came away from that whole experience with hardly any bitcoins (and regretful too), so during the mid-to-late 2018 to early 2020 period, he was putting quite a bit of financial and psychological efforts into building up his BTC portfolio and trying to focus on BTC accumulation.. part of the problem, may have been that he was also trying to make up for his mistakes, even though that does not tend to be a good strategy and many of us know that, even while we are engaged in such beheviors.. we are hoping that we will end up being successful. and then getting out of that psychoogical/financial trap of feeling like we have to make up for past mistakes.

So essentially mindrust's overaccumulation into BTC between late 2018 and early 2020 came through overinvesting while the BTC price was going up and down and sideways, so then by the time we got that big correction in March 2020, there was a kind of psychological and financial build up (and presumption) that the BTC price would not go below certain price points anymore (perhaps $5.5k?), so when the BTC price went shooting below the price floor, there was hardly any ability to hang on..

To the extent that we can believe some of the details about he extent of the investment of something like 40% or more (when he should have been 10% - and maybe 20% at most).. then it even though it seems to not make sense for him to sell (and preserve himself on the way down) or not not buy back (when there was a temporary blip back down) .. but there seems to be some rationale to a lot of his thinking, too.  Part of the reason that we do not have more examples of mindrust seems to be that guys do not say anything.. remember rosewater foundation/blindmayor.. He likely did something similar, but we have a lot of those kinds of folks over the years, but most of them do not post about it.. or at least not that many details.. We know some of them too but it would not be fair to mention them or speculate about what their details might have been.. because they really have not publicly disclosed even close to that much information.. so we usually just have snip-its of information that provide decently strong inferences about their having had mindrusted.

I guess my punchline point is that there is a difference between overinvesting that comes through smaller amounts of value put into bitcoin such as overinvesting by going from 10% to 20%.. so that level of overinesting may well be more bearable when the seemingly inevitable shitty times come and so some level of modest overinvesting seems somewhat reasonable.. as compared to the level of over investing that mindrust had done.. which was north of 40%.. which was 3x additional value than what he should have been putting into bitcoin.  He knew that too.. but he could not stop himself.  

For me it is a different story to feel overinvested into BTC because the BTC price appreciated and the HODLer/accumulator failed/refused to cash out any on the way up.  For me the person who gets to an over accumulation status because of failure/refusal to cash out any BTC is in quite a bit of a less bad situation as compared to someone who is over investing, measures that overinvesting by the value that was put in, and never getting into profits.. Of course there are variations of each, and it could even be the fact that we are not even sure which one we might be because the facts are murky.. and admittedly there can be various murky zones and various ways to measure where we are at and how much new value did we put in as compared with whether the BTC price value has gone up or down.  I don't even proclaim to know my own situation, but it seems to be a lot easier when in profits.. but just having difficulties figuring out how much profits as compared with measuring various forms of not being in profits.. and realizing that how much you put into BTCis 2x, 3x, 4x or more than what you can afford to lose .. Even though mindrust may have still been in a bit of a murky area of profits or not, he did not achieve any kind of overinvestment that came from BTC price appreciation, thus he seemed to have been selling at break even prices more or less.

Maybe some day, he will clarify some of these facts because I know that even with me, sometimes I will make an assessment in one time frame that ends up being different from an assessment that i make at later dates. Of course, there could be some whitewashing and spin that happens depending on on when the assessment is made and if there might be new perspectives about how to frame the issues - without  necessarily going into fantasy (make shit up) accounting.  

For example, maybe in the earlier time, the HODLer/accumulator was calculating his/her BTC exposure based on measurements of adding the value of all equities, cash and BTC in order to arrive at the value of his/her quasi-liquid investment portfolio, but was purposefully not including shitcoins as part of that package, and was also choosing to completely exclude the value of his/her residential property.  

One or two years later, the HODLer/accumulator decided to add up the value of all of the shitcoins that s/he owned and also to assess the fair (quasi-liquid) value of his/her house at 70% of the then market valuem and to add those values to the value of the quasi-liquid investment portfolio.  Upon making those changes to his/her overall quasi-liquid investment portfolio, the overall size of the total quasi-liquid investment portfolio went up, so therefore the changes caused his/her exposure to bitcoin to be considered as 30% rather than 40%, and therefore the explanation and the rethinking of what happened might be characterized differently based on various reassessments..

It would be up to the HODLer/accumulator to figure out if his/her reframing of the whole matter helps him/her to understand his/her financial/psychological situation better in order to better learn from it, or if the reframing of the whole matter could be a way to present the facts and story in a way that are to create a better depiction of reality or just to describe a situation that allows some abilities to save face in regards to helping to not look so bad.. Both of the reasons could be justifiable reasons to reframe the accounting, and if a person knows shy s/he is reframing then the reframing can be empowering rather than merely a way to escape into fantasyland.      

Many of us are 100% in favor of bitcoin in terms of savings. I personally had exhausted the credit card limits and had taken a loan from the bank with which I had bought the day before at 7K. If I wasn't afraid of covid, I swear, I would go the next day and take out a 5x bigger loan and buy bitcoins for 4K. Whatever.

For sure, leveraging can increase the exposure too, and sometimes we might lose track of how much overexposed that we might be, including if we had leveraged against various assets that we own.. rather than just playing straight longs..

But in the last year we have seen something even more unfortunate, not to say ridiculous. We see an influx of institutions, thousands of them, who have invested in bitcoin and even more companies and retail behind them. However, over 90% of them have no knowledge, no beliefs, no intention to hold for at least 4 years. Some of them were quite influenced by the tweets of elon musk, which shows what their intellectual level was. That is why these crashes last year and this year turned out to be so big. All these companies and retail lost over 50% of their money. And this can be easily checked on the glassnode website. What I noticed, for example, I see today that many others have noticed on Twitter. From the Canadian purpose ETF were withdrawn 24K bitcoins at the end of Friday (50% of the bitcoins). It is almost certain that this is a company that has found a way to sell them on the exchange the next day. Something that caused the big crash.

Surely, sometimes we hope that some of these BIGGER players will never get their coins back, and we find out that sometimes when they do their massive dumpings, they are not even playing with their own coins.  So if they end up fucking up, then their customers/clients may well end up paying for the games or the bad situations that some of those custodians get themselves into.

So, several large companies have practically gone bankrupt, and others are moving in that direction. Probably over 90% of the companies. There, in addition to the fact that customers want an annual interest rate, contracts are often made, in case the price falls to a certain level, the asset to be sold immediately. This is de facto a long position with a margin call. Michael Sailor did something similar, but there the calculations are better and even at 3K he is not in danger of liquidation. Not to mention the companies that use bitcoins as collateral for their collapsed shitcoins.

For sure, some of the folks playing with leverage are way more sophisticated than others.  

What follows from now on? This process of exodus of the institutions and the weak hands will probably continue for another 2-3 years at least. But even afther that, we clearly cannot rely on them for sustainable price growth. In addition, until the very end of 2020, despite the withdrawal of 650K bitcoins from Greyscale from the market, the price could not pass 10K due to the ugly Bart manipulations on 20x+ derivatives exchanges such as Bitmex. The paypal sensation had to appear before the bull market could start. Assuming that the ETF will be given to Greyscale within 3 years, this means that these bitcoins will return to the exchanges. And if there is no sensational news like PayPal, there may not even be a significant bullish market despite the halving.

Wow.. 2-3 years to get out of this mess?  I hope it does not take that long.

So, let's hope that the ETF will not be given and the institutions will not inflate the price and then bring it down. What is sure to happen is that the convinced hodlers will continue to increase their stash and will not sell on a loss.

Not selling at a loss seems to be a very good practice, highly recommended.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

Aside from such musings, I make efficient use of the ignore list just to save time and to clear clutter.  If you ever have any problems with users who want to follow you around obsessively and spit at you, then consider the ignore list as an efficient (non-)response.

Be extension you will find as your time grows shorter your list grows longer and its much easier to hit the show button to see if the quality of those you ignored improved over time.

Generally you will find they end up being banned anyway and the time you have left on this earth was not wasted on them.

[Gachapin]

Who keeps deleting WO posts?  Things are jumping around—again and again.  At this rate, WO’s page-count will soon dip below the Bitcoin price without any recovery in the latter.

Well, I'd venture to guess we could have page parity in one easy step.
....Just delete all your blah blah blah posts.... Win, win....

Indeed, that sounds like a good plan. Imagine having 2 JJG's on one single thread. Surely WO can't handle this much stress test.

After telling people who don't believe in BTC TA that they are stupid, and after filling the WO with childish posts how you and your skills deserve recognition  ...next, you know how much the "WO can handle" and who of the participants should be excluded ?

Boy... you are really good at making yourself look like a presumptuous little brat.

Frankly, how long have you been reading the WO that you are now calling for the exclusions of others - who are probably OG's to you?
3 years 4 years?  

How about using the ignore button and stfu yourself?

(sorry for the harsh words but it seems you're not the guy that is getting a message via discreet hints...)

[death_wish]

When Mindrust "mindrusted", he quietly left the WO thread.

But this new troll death_wish just never shuts the fuck up, spewing walls of garbage and nonsense.

Actually I think we may have laughed at him too much. Literally made a meme out of the man. Hopefully not the reason he left. :/

This forum is bigger than WO.  And it hosts discussion other than price speculation.

mindrust generally represented himself as if he were an ideologically motivated Bitcoiner.  As if he embraced Bitcoin for noble principles.  He talked the talk—for years, he talked the talk!  Some of us were shocked when he didn’t walk the walk.

I know of several different forum members who were then very active outside WO, who despised mindrust for mindrusting, and who gave him hell about it elsewhere.

I know of at least one forum member who had never before posted in WO—never even set foot in here—who suddenly showed up in WO after mindrust mindrusted.

I know of people outside WO who reacted first out of shock—with a deep sympathy for mindrust—then later, out of disgust that far from coming to his senses, mindrust systematically reneged on much of his own prior preaching.

And I know that outside of WO, mindrust himself showed a tendency to turn on people the same way he had turned on Bitcoin.  It was shocking at the time.  In hindsight, it is unsurprising.

I am a nocoiner now.

For mere investors who are only in it for the money:  You are obviously under no obligation to risk or sacrifice for my principles.  If you practice buy-and-hold purely for risk-management reasons, then strategize accordingly about how to handle crashes.  If you’re a trader and Bitcoin crashes, you stop-loss.  No problem.  Just try to do a better job of it than mindrust, whose panic-sell was pure foot-shooting—not a savvy trader’s stop-loss.

And just remember that the value of your investment has ultimately grown from a vanguard of zealots:  The idealists, the activists, the hard core of Bitcoiners who sincerely believe that “1 BTC = 1 BTC” motto, “Be Your Own Bank”, “Not Your Keys”, and so forth.  The ones who want for Bitcoin to change the world, to make the world a better place.  Bitcoin wouldn’t even exist without such people!  Be grateful that the product of their noble idealism has given you the opportunity to take profits in the central bank shitcoins that you thoughtlessly fetishize.

At least you have the honesty of being candid about what you really want from Bitcoin.  I sincerely wish for you to enjoy a tasty profit unless you short Bitcoin on the spot market, in which case you should burn in hell; short the perp if you want to short BTC!.

mindrust did not have that honesty.

I have a cordial contempt for “Bitcoin investors” who are in it only for the money—cordial, because I appreciate that their investments help to empower my noblest of principles—contempt, because their motives are venal.  I care about Bitcoin.

Naturally, I want for Bitcoin investors to get rich.  It is their condign reward for supporting Bitcoin.  But I know that they do not care for Bitcoin, as I do.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

Aside from such musings, I make efficient use of the ignore list just to save time and to clear clutter.  If you ever have any problems with users who want to follow you around obsessively and spit at you, then consider the ignore list as an efficient (non-)response.

Be extension you will find as your time grows shorter your list grows longer and its much easier to hit the show button to see if the quality of those you ignored improved over time.

Generally you will find they end up being banned anyway and the time you have left on this earth was not wasted on them.

The “show” button requires Javascript.  Disabled here.  My forum-usage security policy inadvertently makes my ignorelist ultra-hardcore.

WTF am I doing with web3?  I’ll tell you what.  Miserably running web3 dapps in ten layers of sandboxing, and then figuring out how to access the same things programmatically via node.js in only five layers of sandboxing.  This is a problem that needs to be solved.

[Hueristic]

Aside from such musings, I make efficient use of the ignore list just to save time and to clear clutter.  If you ever have any problems with users who want to follow you around obsessively and spit at you, then consider the ignore list as an efficient (non-)response.

Be extension you will find as your time grows shorter your list grows longer and its much easier to hit the show button to see if the quality of those you ignored improved over time.

Generally you will find they end up being banned anyway and the time you have left on this earth was not wasted on them.

The “show” button requires Javascript.  Disabled here.  My forum-usage security policy inadvertently makes my ignorelist ultra-hardcore.

WTF am I doing with web3?  I’ll tell you what.  Miserably running web3 dapps in ten layers of sandboxing, and then figuring out how to access the same things programmatically via node.js in only five layers of sandboxing.  This is a problem that needs to be solved.

Yeah it sucks, I capitulated.

[death_wish]

The “show” button requires Javascript.  Disabled here.  My forum-usage security policy inadvertently makes my ignorelist ultra-hardcore.

WTF am I doing with web3?  I’ll tell you what.  Miserably running web3 dapps in ten layers of sandboxing, and then figuring out how to access the same things programmatically via node.js in only five layers of sandboxing.  This is a problem that needs to be solved.

Yeah it sucks, I capitulated.

Your capitulation shows that the no-JS bottom is in.

Disabling Javascript since Netscape Navigator, watching the Web become useless without Javacript in about the past 10–12 years—there must be a bottom somewhere!  Where do I buy stonk in NoScript?


Srsly, much though I oft criticize this forum, I am glad that it is one of the only non-negligible discussion platforms that retains all basic read/write functionality without Javascript.  And I know that I am not the only one.  When this issue gets raised in Meta, etc., Legendaries condemn Javascript while anon cypherpunks with throwaway accounts come out of the woodwork to opine.  Well, after all, it is Satoshi’s forum.

[death_wish]

Gachapin, my TA predicts that your first post on or after 2022-06-29 08:06:40 UTC will downgrade your account to Sr. Member.

I think that WO usually throws a party upon such events, but it is not in my bailiwick.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Who keeps deleting WO posts?  Things are jumping around—again and again.  At this rate, WO’s page-count will soon dip below the Bitcoin price without any recovery in the latter.

Well, I'd venture to guess we could have page parity in one easy step.
....Just delete all your blah blah blah posts.... Win, win....

Indeed, that sounds like a good plan. Imagine having 2 JJG's on one single thread. Surely WO can't handle this much stress test.

Imagine that.






You go girl.

based on some of your other purported circumstances including that you are otherwise starving and other bullshit like that,

I am thereupon uninterested in further discussion with you.  I reply hereby only for the record, on some points I wish to set straight:

Are we breaking up?

If you do not want an answer that addresses your question, then why are you asking it..
[...]
You asked me if I though that you were over invested or not... several times.

Context:  My question was rhetorical.  I was not seeking your analysis or advice.  My point was clear; the problem is not in my statement thereof.

You have been speaking to me as if I have too little BTC to care.  I have read many of your posts before.  By all advice that I have ever seen you give to anyone, I am currently overinvested in Bitcoin—overexposed, with too much skin in the game—and yet, you treat me as if I don’t care about Bitcoin because I lack sufficient “stake”.

If that is your interpretation, then "it appears that we have a failure to communicate" here - just like in this little clip (5 second version).. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYe8cGy9TeI

Here's the 50 second version.. funny I had never seen that.. but I had heard the quot several times.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=452XjnaHr1A

Where I now stand with BTC—for the moment:

Yes, I have very little BTC left.  But it is a large proportion of my dollhouse-sized remaining finances.  For he who has little, a pauper’s scraps are precious as a king’s fortune.  My little itty-bitty bitcoins mean the world to me.

I obviously do not intend to let my BTC level remain so low!  It is a bit difficult to increase it, when I currently have $0.28 USDT available purchase funds, effectively zero cash flow, and too much time spent posting here.  In the due course of time, I have confidence that I will recuperate financially.  I reasonably expect for it to require considerable patience and effort.

Another aspect is that some of your specifics do not matter that much to me. in terms of responding to a variety of circumstances in which someone may well have to make choices about his/her allocations going forward and the extent to which more building needs to be accomplished.

I suppose in some sense, I don't want to get into specifics because we are in a public thread.. but surely sometimes some of the specifics can make a difference.. and anyone can take my suggestions or feedback or responses to issues however they like.. or ignore my comments too. if that seems the best way in which they might incorporate my ideas.

For example, if someone tells me that they have all of their various individual circumstances accounted for including but not limited to their expenses.. and their emergency fund, so in that regard, they come to the conclusion that they have $1,200 in cash and 0.05 BTC and they have $400 extra cashflow per month that can be invested into BTC, then at least I have something to work with when I suggest a possible way forward, but if such person is leaving out some facts, then I either have to create a hypothetical or describe some of the basic considerations.. ..

Do you believe that I should give very many shits if you are fighting with me about details or that I am being too patronizing or my supposed failure/refusal to account for your sensitive state of affairs?  There is ONLY so much therapy or sympathy that you should expect in a thread like this.. when a lot of us (including yours truly) are attempting to work with what we got, and do you think we want to get into some of those persona considerations that you have.. and if the numbers are changed, or your conclusion about what constitutes over investment is different, then you gotta work out some of that shit for yourself, and if you are not happy with some of my numbers or my conclusions or my framing of what are the issues that I believe to be important to address, then you should be adjusting them to yourself.. and your actual circumstances.

You have a tendency to take matters personally.
[...]
Your ideas are not only dumb.. but frequently they are emotional too... ..

It is slippery of you to hurl numerous unnecessarily personal negative remarks at me, sometimes laced with profanities, and then accuse me of “a tendency to take matters personally”.

Stop taking things personally.

My ideas are indeed oftentimes emotional.  I am passionate about Bitcoin.  I know that it sometimes leads me to make economically irrational decisions, which have ironically resulted in my having much less BTC.  But all in all, I don’t think that being passionate about Bitcoin is a bad thing.

nothing wrong with that, but if we are considering BTC investment strategies and things like (which seems to be an area frequently batted around in this thread) .. especially dollars/BTC since that is our OP topic. ...then sometimes there are ideas about DCA, buying on dip and lump sum investing.. and there also may be ideas of portfolio management and liquidation..

So you can battle against those topics and say that you only do x, y or z, but people have differing strategies, and I have various ways in which I talk about those kinds of topics too.. so if you make comments that do not make sense to me inin light of my own ways of thinking about the matters, then I may well make comments, since this is a public thread.  Seems better to not get emotional or to get attached to your personal examples when we are getting into differences of opinion..  

I  doubt that you are going to get much more leeway merely because you are suggesting personal circumstancers or being in love with king daddy or whatever.

Do you believe that we are going to get very far because you proclaim that your strategies show that you love king daddy more than I do, to the extent that is really relevant?  

I feel that I am getting into repetitious territory.

Yeah. sometimes I say dumb things too.. Once in a while.. Maybe three times in total?

That accounting is like proudhon’s valuation of BTC.  If the natural maximum price of BTC is $100, and it must return to that price, then I guess you have said a total of three dumb things.

That is b called koreck

three things.

right.

By golly, I think she's got it.



6 second video clip here

The foregoing was prepared earlier.

Part of the issue also seems to be that he came into the thread with a seemingly specific purpose of mindrusting..

I should not have held it.

Perhaps?

Even though you seem to consider there to be some kind of an ongoing personal.. I don't see why you seem to want to engage in such kinds of battles when they do not really seem to be necessary..

It seems to me that if you bring up issues in this thread, then those issues become fair game, and we might not agree on the way to frame the matter.

I doubt anyone, including yours truly, is trying to be a big meanie to you... I suppose it depends on if you feel like you need to win certain battles.. which one are we going to do next?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

I suppose in some sense, I don't want to get into specifics because we are in a public thread.. but surely sometimes some of the specifics can make a difference.. and anyone can take my suggestions or feedback or responses to issues however they like.. or ignore my comments too. if that seems the best way in which they might incorporate my ideas.

[...]

[...] if we are considering BTC investment strategies and things like (which seems to be an area frequently batted around in this thread) .. especially dollars/BTC since that is our OP topic. ...then sometimes there are ideas about DCA, buying on dip and lump sum investing.. and there also may be ideas of portfolio management and liquidation..

When I first came to this thread with an unfixable problem, I explicitly sought your advice—in addition to trying to warn newbies “don’t wind up like this”, and frankly also just looking to vent.

I greatly appreciate the time and effort that you spent trying to help me find an impossible exit from a trap that was already closed.

Beyond that—I have told you that I think your investment strategies are mostly pretty good for most people, in most circumstances.  As I’ve said, I have cribbed from the JayJuanGee book to advise nocoiners how to get into Bitcoin:  Your approach to portfolio allocation, risk tolerance assessment, etc. is basically how financial advisors usually guide their clients.  DCA, buying the dips, etc. is a reasonable way to avoid gambling on timing the market.  Quite apart from any of your price predictions (to which I give less credence), the guidance that you give to most people should work in usual circumstances.  But I have also said somewhere, it doesn’t work for me.  My circumstances are not usual.  For that reason, I have not requested your advice on how to rebuild my holding.

I don’t want to discuss private specifics.

I assure you that if I had any positive fiat cashflow usable for buying BTC that was independent of now-nonexistent assets that I futilely sacrificed trying to save my BTC, I would now be stacking every sat I could.  Bitcoin is now on deep discount sale.  Whether or not the bottom is yet in, I do not want to miss the Bitcoin discount sale—especially not when I just lost almost all my bitcoins!  However, I cooked my own goose, these past few months—more than you know, worse than you realize.  The details are private, and I have already revealed far too much financial information about myself.

I have sought advice privately, from people who are competent to give such advice.  The objective, cut-and-dry answer is that if BTC doesn’t remain at its current price levels for at least a little while, then I will be unavoidably screwed.  Better hurry up and work on some new cashflow!

[Edited to add extra warning for newbies:  My situation is overall worse than mindrust’s was, after he threw away his bitcoins.  He sold the bottom, and Bitcoin immediately rose after he dumped; but he sold for cash, so he had cash in hand.  He could have immediately re-bought something.  He didn’t; that was his damnfool choice.  In my case, Bitcoin went down after I lost my coins—and it is still below (on average, very far below) the price at which I lost them.  However, my coins were sold by a robot to repay debt—to repay debt, and to pay liquidation penalties.  From those sales, I am left with nothing!  I am watching helplessly, in continuing torment, with no way to re-buy my lost coins unless/until I earn myself some new funds for purchase.  This is what margin does to you.]

I do have a strategy to rebuild my BTC.  It is not a very good strategy, but it is the best that I can do in the circumstances.  I should spend less time on this forum, and more time improving those circumstances.

Even though you seem to consider there to be some kind of an ongoing personal.. I don't see why you seem to want to engage in such kinds of battles when they do not really seem to be necessary..

I don’t want to, but I do so if really necessary.

Whether by accidental misunderstanding or by intent, many of your recent posts have misinterpreted or mischaracterized my situation in a way that puts me in a bad light.  That is unavoidably personal to me, even if I wish it were otherwise.

based on some of your other purported circumstances including that you are otherwise starving and other bullshit like that,

I am thereupon uninterested in further discussion with you.  I reply hereby only for the record, on some points I wish to set straight:

Are we breaking up?

Just like you are free to think whatever you want, as long as you don’t go around smearing me based on wild fantasies as some do—I am free to decline discussion with anyone who thinks that I would fabricate such a thing.

I have frankly been grieving.  Because it’s not “only money” to me.  Bitcoin.

Grieving has a proper time.  Then, it is time to move on and be a ruthless mercenary capitalist.

I see no reason to continue back-and-forth about how I should or can or can’t rebuild my holding—a subject about which, I repeat, I have not and cannot request useful advice on a public forum.  I just need to work on it.

At the bottom line, I will repeat here what I recently told someone who reached out to me via PM with concerns and well-wishes:

In the long term, I am confident that I will recuperate financially.  This is a worse as a spiritual blow than anything else.

[Biodom]

Apparently, Voyager loaned 15K btc (+350mil USDC) to 3ac.
Now they are asking for the loan back by June 27.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/crypto-platform-voyager-digital-shares-plunge-60-after-revealing-665-million-exposure-to-embattled-hedge-fund-considers-issuing-default-notice-11655911126

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation