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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 62

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26387622 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
ChartBuddy
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March 21, 2023, 03:01:21 AM


Explanation
JayJuanGee
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March 21, 2023, 03:08:52 AM

I somehow missed the above prediction and I'd say we aren't even going to the bearish 245k, here's why.
We could say the last bull market was low yield. It only took ups up from 20 to 70 and that's very weak compared to 2013 and 2017. If this continues or stays comparably low we'll reach close to 3x 70 in the next 2 years and reach 200-220k.

But may be the real top was 60k? 70 was reached with a much lower volume. If the real macro top was 60k that would put us below 200k at the next ATH.

There's even a worse scenario.
If the cycles are going to keep bringing less profit each time it would mean less than 3.5x this cycle. Maybe 2x this time and 1.5x next cycle, which would give us 140k by the end of next year and 200k 4 years later.

Those are some pretty bearish takes, and I don't really have any problem with preparing for possible less bullish and conservative scenarios, including that BTC might only appreciate at 6% per year on average for the next 10 years, which would ONLY cause it to double from here until then.

So, we can have more bearish scenarios, more bullish scenarios and what we consider to be more likely (middle of the road) scenarios.. but at the same time, with our own personal finances, we attempt to be conservative, but also ready, willing and able to take advantage of some of the "extra cream" if such "extra cream" ends up materializing.

Some guys cause their expectations to be deflated because they make them too high.. yet, if you do not attempt to prepare yourself both financially and psychologically for a decently wide-variety of scenarios, if you end up NOT being prepared for some kind of an outrageous scenario that ends up playing out (beyond your expectations) then you are going to be more likely to panic and/or do something stupid because you have failed/refused to sufficiently/adequately prepare for such.

IDGAF what happens in April.

Hopefully a giant meteor impacts the planet and we all go extinct overnight for all I care.

Aren't you the life of the party?

 Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

[edited out]
Dang Jay…I fell asleep while reading your post .lol.

You better up your game.

 Angry Angry Angry Angry

Do you get paid per word or sentence…?😂

Per great idea.

I haven't been paid for a while.

My registration date is 2015 for this alias… I have two others that go back to 2012 when I first heard about Bitcoin and started accumulating.

Whale alert!!!!!!!!!



I double down on whatever it was that I previously said then.. since that gives you nearly one more cycle.. or at least more than 1/2 a cycle added onto what I had presumed to be your bitcoin tenure (from your current nym).

For me trading Bitcoin is not gambling… for one I trade a relatively small amount of my stash and two I use strict trading methods.

I am glad about that... I do agree that trading can be used to offset some of BTC's volatility and to provide some downside insurance too.. but I do not recommend it or even endorse it as a BTC accumulation method (especially in the earliest stages of accumulation, which I did not presume to be you, but I do tend to aim my posts at newbies or those seeking to have some interactions about best and better practices rather than at anyone in particular).. until after the BTC HODLer/accumulated has clearly and unambiguously already reached accumulation targets, so then any accumulation would merely be a side-benefit rather than as a means to establish whatever might be defined as his/her core BTC position.

Of course, people can have differences of opinion from me, but does not stop me from attempting to describe and/or proclaim what I believe are better/best practices from my perspective (however narrow. and self-indulged that might be).
JayJuanGee
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March 21, 2023, 03:24:53 AM
Merited by johnsaributua (1)

Crossfit is for men,
Bitcoin is for men as well…
Guess what the dude is.


I am not sure.

Can you provide a hint.

Don't cheat either.

 Tongue

Crossfit is for men,
Bitcoin is for men as well…
Guess what the dude is.

The Man…?
Third line…The Dude is the Man
My guess was, half in the bag.  Wink

You have probably run in to the dude while on your daily McDee trips... or is it morning?   The Dude does not seem like a morning peep.. so your ships might not cross paths.

This is a tough one.

We might have to call in reinforcements....

fillippone can at least geolocate ... combine fillippone with OOM's star-identifying skills, and we will at least be able to figure out how likely the dude might get hit by an asteroid in the coming decades.

The price is definitely going to be range-bound for a very loooong time as long as Fed rates stay this high. And I'm sure the Fed is LOVING all these new rounds of layoff announcements, hence rates will stay high.

I know how to look at charts too.

And, when I look at the charts, it seems to me that bitcoin is not correlated to mature asset classes...

But, hey?  what do I know?


You have your rights to your own seemingly not zoomed out interpretations of where we are at, how we got here and where we might be going...
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March 21, 2023, 03:32:45 AM

I cannot make sense of it all....
If bitcoin is the denominator, what would be the numerator, really?

...what is happening here must (or could) be Singularity /s
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March 21, 2023, 03:43:54 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1), AlcoHoDL (1), DdmrDdmr (1), Toxic2040 (1), machasm (1)

There was a crossfitting young dude
Who liked to drink beer in the nude
In innocent bliss
He selfied his piss
But most of the comments were rude











#nohaiku
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March 21, 2023, 04:01:17 AM


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March 21, 2023, 05:01:16 AM


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March 21, 2023, 05:06:55 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (2), vapourminer (1), Toxic2040 (1)

Sorry guys I had to keep my hat in the closet, so I am posting without one for now. Cheesy

Still makes you a silly cap wearer in my eyes, don't you worry about it.

If you don't know what the is, it's the Ichimoku Cloud, one of my all-time favorites, I used it back in the 2018 analysis and the more recent 2022 analysis.

Apart from how helpful it is to identify bottoms, it's also great in identifying local trend limits, if you check how the price behaved around the cloud back in 2015 and 2019, when the cloud is "red" and the price enters it, it usually doesn't stop until it hits the highest part of the cloud at the entry time.

I like clouds and otherwise started to get into Ichimoku. I like the how accurate it has been on the 3 Day chart specifically. It's useful for turning $20K level mega bears into bulls over-time at least!



You'll have to excuse the animal emojis. Apparently TV doesn't have arrows anymore, only emjois so use your imagination. Couldn't even find a bear emoji ffs (so squirrel is the bear). FYI, cloud doesn't come with animal emojis

In summary, it recommended selling at $46K in winter 2021 once bearish cross occurred, especially since price was breaking below the cloud. It did also recommend selling at $46K that summer prior to price moving higher, but then a breaking back above recommended re-entering around the same price, ultimately only to bail out again around the same price by winter once price re-tested the bearish cloud.

It was "choppy" back in 2021, but cloud did the job... even if you didn't really gain or lose any money by following it's recommendations. But the real part is how well it identified the bear market... it uses a good combination of price and time it seems, as last year when price was just above $20K, it was screaming that the market was in the worst part of the bear market so far (not in any recovery stage what so ever).

However since this bearish cross around $46K that arrived in December 2021, the cloud was full-blown bearish until the break-out above around $23K or otherwise bullish cross around $22K (you have to factor in the cross occurs on the chart 20 bars ahead of price - this was originally the part I never understood about the cloud until back testing). At that point it had already recommended buying into the cloud support that had turned bullish around $17.9K to $20.3K, at least that's my interpretation. There is also the bullish/bearish divergence of the cloud, but really it's about the bullish/bearish crossover (red/green) that are the confirmations.

Last week's candle did close INSIDE the cloud, with the highest line of the cloud sitting at $43,444, in the past 2 cycles we took an average of 7 weeks to reach that point, so could we see 43k around mid May!

Highest point of bearish part of cloud on weekly time-frame is $48,800 if not mistaken, unless you are using different settings? Which is ironically very close to the 0.618 fib retracement "target" of $48,560.

Also the highest point of bullish/bearish cloud was $12.7K in 2018/2019, and that was reached by June, in 2015 bear market took until June 2016 by comparison. Personally I think the Weekly cloud is more of a "couter-trade" indicator due to how lagging it is. Ie, when price re-tests it, instead of selling you should be buying (as you pointed out). Whereas Daily time-frame is just way to choppy it seems.

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March 21, 2023, 05:48:14 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (10), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1), DdmrDdmr (1), Toxic2040 (1)

There was a crossfitting young dude
Who liked to drink beer in the nude
In innocent bliss
He selfied his piss
But most of the comments were rude

#nohaiku

Indeed not a haiku. It's a limerick.
______

The limerick's a verse form complex
Whose contents range mainly to sex.
It burgeons with virgins
And masculine urgin's
And swarms with erotic effects
_______

Maybe Mondays should be Limerick Mondays.
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March 21, 2023, 06:01:19 AM


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March 21, 2023, 07:01:17 AM


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March 21, 2023, 08:01:15 AM


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March 21, 2023, 08:08:08 AM
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There once was a young man named Wright
Whos speed was much faster than light
He set out one day
In a relative way
and returned on the previous night.
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March 21, 2023, 08:12:02 AM
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March 21, 2023, 08:45:13 AM
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Never keep more than what you ready to lose.

First Republic Bank, the 14th largest U.S. bank.

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March 21, 2023, 09:27:39 AM
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There once was this thing called Bitcoin
People were happy and they all joined
A central banker started to lurk
Made threats, was a right jerk
He said buy it and I'll kick you in the groin
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March 21, 2023, 09:46:00 AM

No more bear markets please.

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March 21, 2023, 10:01:17 AM


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March 21, 2023, 10:07:50 AM

Fiat goes to zero due to inflation
It's designed to confine you to plantations
You work all your life and do your best
Then central bankers steal, behave like a pest
Buy Bitcoin, it's the only salvation

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