ChartBuddy
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JimboToronto
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You're never too old to be young.
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February 17, 2023, 04:11:33 PM |
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bitcoinPsycho
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$120000 by end of 2023 confirmed . Slava Ukraini
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February 17, 2023, 04:31:51 PM |
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JayJuanGee
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ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin
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None of that negates any of the points that I had been making... Yes, we know that lump sum will beat DCA so long as you buy in a dipping period as compared to buying in a peaking period, so what else is new? Part of the issue for any normie remains whether they have a lump sum to invest in the first place, which an overwhelming majority of normies do not have any lump sum.. The best that they have is either figuring out their cashflow and getting started or alternatively going into debt (in order to establish a lump sum to start with), and I doubt that it is usually going to be a good idea to go into debt in order to buy a risky asset (such as bitcoin) unless you otherwise have your cashflow in order, which by definition is no longer the typical situation for the overwhelming majority of normies.. that's part of what makes a normie a normie in the first place.. fucked up finances and lack of much of any savings/investment. So tell me, bitebits, are you wanting to get into the fray? Are you working against the hypothetical or wanting to create your own fantasy set of facts that may or may not be typical of where normies are at in terms of their cashflow options and their psychology too? I am not even completely against changing the hypothetical in order to allow that a person getting into bitcoin 9 years ago (let's say the beginning of 2014) might not have already had an investment portfolio of something like $50k or perhaps even $100k, but our working hypothetical was attempting to presume starting from zero, and deciding to get into bitcoin with an investment budget of around $100 per week.. that gets you $5,200 in a year or $47k in 9 years, but it does not get you the $100 per week before the week happens, so sure, for example in the first year, such normie investor could choose NOT to get into bitcoin at all, and ONLY watch and attempt to time the market.. and therefore by the time the next year comes, January 2015, he has $5,200 in front of him, and he can invest that $5,200 at that time.. but really is that realistic? Put yourself into the situation. Are you going to hear about bitcoin in early 2014, know that you want to invest, wait for a year while your $100 per week is building up, and then pounce on the bottom in January 2015? Sounds like a bit of a fantasy, and dealing with some other kind of person that is not a normie... Normies no don't work like that. And, part of the reason that DCA works so fucking well for normies, is that it requires way the fuck less thinking. I am not even suggesting that other approaches to accumulating BTC are not good. I already suggest that DCA is the best of the three methods, but DCA can be supplemented with lump sum investing and buying on dips, which means that we might start with a default position that includes some kind of equal proportioning.. so if we start out with $12,000 in cash that would also supplement our $100 per week, then we might want to divide that $12k into three categories of consideration that involves DCA, lump sum and buying on dips, and the extent to which we deviate from 1/3 in each of the three categories would depend upon our own particular financial and psychological circumstances that should involve considering: our cashflow, how much bitcoin we have already accumulated, our other investments, our view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and our time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets) and our abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments. The basics include DCA as the strongest of those tools to get the fuck started and don't be dickering around.. and of course, if we have a lump sum of cash to work with then we have more options than most normies who largely have to get the fuck off zero, get started with something and then as they build their position they can figure out if some kind of a more hybrid or personally tailored approach might work better, otherwise fuck lump summing as the starting strategy towards getting to richie status in BTC because all it causes is mental masterbaters, bitcoin naysayers, market timers, shitcoiners, fence sitters gamblers.. and perhaps some other negative categories of folks who fail/refuse to get the fuck started in their BTC investment/learning journey. #justsaying
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xhomerx10
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February 17, 2023, 04:52:37 PM Last edit: February 17, 2023, 05:49:28 PM by xhomerx10 |
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Journey of Bitcoin in 2009 to 2022.
* in January 2009 - March 2010 BTC was basically nothing. * May 2010 BTC price was: 0.08$. * April 2011 BTC price was: 1$. * November 2011 BTC price was: 2$. * July 1, 2012 BTC price was: 15.25$. * August 18, 2012 BTC price was: 10.50$. * October 2013 BTC price was: 196.02$. * November 2013 BTC price was: 1,154.93$. * December 2013 BTC price was: 744.17$. * January 2014 BTC price was: 841.49$. * March 2014 BTC price was: 472.48$. * May 2014 BTC price was: 612.13$. * July 2014 BTC price was: 565.57$. * September 2014 BTC price was: 376.08$. * October 2014 BTC price was: 343.56$. * December 2014 BTC price was: 309.9$. * January 2015 BTC price was: 247.26$. * March 2015 BTC price was: 226.94$. * May 2015 BTC price was: 233.33$. * July 2011 BTC price was: 286.74$. * September 2015 BTC price was: 238.06$. * October 2015 BTC price was: 327.58$. * November 2015 BTC price was: 375.2$. * December 2015 BTC price was: 424.96$. * January 2016 BTC price was: 378.17$. * March 2016 BTC price was: 414.46$. * May 2016 BTC price was: 537.23$. * July 2016 BTC price was: 635.59$. * September 2016 BTC price was: 604.52$. * October 2016 BTC price was: 693.9$. * November 2016 BTC price was: 731.64$. * December 2016 BTC price was: 952.46$. * January 2017 BTC price was: 921.35$. * February 2017 BTC price was: 1,189.95$. * March 2017 BTC price was: 1,048.86$. * April 2017 BTC price was: 1,311.59$. * May 2017 BTC price was: 2,170.98$. * June 2017 BTC price was: 2,547.32$. * July 2017 BTC price was: 2,718.62$. * August 2017 BTC price was: 4,676.14$. * September 2017 BTC price was: 4,207.82$. * October 2017 BTC price was: 6,130.56$. * December 2017 BTC price was: 13,062.15$ * January 2018 BTC price was: 9,914.47$. * February 2018 BTC price was: 10,903.02$. * March 2018 BTC price was: 6,970.36$. * April 2018 BTC price was: 9,268.72$. * July 2018 BTC price was: 8,166.39$. * August 2018 BTC price was: 6,938.51$. * September 2018 BTC price was: 6,576.61$. * November 2018 BTC price was: 3,952.45$. * January 2019 BTC price was: 3,441.03$. * April 2019 BTC price was: 5,151.43$. * May 2019 BTC price was: 8,287.04$. * June 2019 BTC price was: 12,024.08$. * July 2019 BTC price was: 9,572.74$. * September 2019 BTC price was: 8,085.71$. * October 2019 BTC price was: 9,226$. * December 2019 BTC price was: 7,251.28$. * January 2020 BTC price was: 9,545.08$. * March 2020 BTC price was: 6,483.74$. * April 2020 price was: 8,773.11$. * June 2020 price was: 9,188.06$. * August 2020 BTC price was: 11,657$. * September 2020 BTC price was: 10,764.28$. * October 2020 BTC price was: 13,573.71$. * November 2020 BTC price was: 18,114.41$. * December 2020 BTC price was: 28,768.84$. * January 01, 2021 BTC price was: 28,994.01$. * January 10, 2021 BTC price was: 40,254.22$. * January 15, 2021 BTC price was: 39,156.71$. * January 20, 2021 BTC price was: 36,050.11$. * February 01, 2021 BTC price was: 33,114.58$. * February 15, 2021 BTC price was: 48,696.54$. * February 22, 2021 BTC price was: 57,539.94$. * July 20, 2021 BTC price was: 29,800$. * September 06, 2021 BTC price was: 52,600$. * September 28, 2021 BTC price was: 41,000$. * October 20, 2021 BTC price was: 65,990$. * November 08, BTC price was: 69,000$. * December 04, 2021 BTC price was: 49,200$. * December 17, 2021 BTC price was: 42,000$. * December 23, 2021 BTC price was: 49,000$. * January 2022 BTC price was: 45,871.07$. * May 2022 BTC price was: 40,040.17$. * July 2022 BTC price was: 24,678$. * August 2022 BTC price was: 25,219$. * November 2022 BTC price was: 21,486.08$. * December 2022 BTC price was: 18,383.19$.
April 2013 was quite significant as the price of bitcoin rose to ~US$250 . I remember this because I finally found an exchange and deposited money into it only to watch bitcoin rise significantly while I tried to buy enough to purchase the miner i wanted. My bids kept getting left in the dust until I just gave up and waited. Luckily it came back down significantly that time.
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ChartBuddy
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February 17, 2023, 05:01:17 PM |
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JayJuanGee
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ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin
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February 17, 2023, 05:05:57 PM Last edit: February 17, 2023, 05:42:22 PM by JayJuanGee Merited by fillippone (3) |
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Is this bullish enough for you?  My body is ready That looks somewhat reasonable.. but I had frequently been considering that bitcoin is likely around 1,000x more valuable than gold, and that chart ONLY shows bitcoin as being around 20x more valuable than gold. Also, there is no reason that over time, bitcoin would not end up absorbing all of the monetary value of the various assets that are listed. It does not mean that those listed assets, lose their value, but that bitcoin absorbs the monetary/speculative value.. but it seems that Croesus had already attempted to account for reasonable numbers there. Not easy to argue with those numbers, even though I had been considering bitcoin as 1,000x of gold and also had been considering bitcoin to be able to accede up to $1 quadrillion in value in today's dollars which is kind of presuming that more value is created just because of bitcoin is opening up value creation possibilities that are not currently conceived of but come into being the more and more that bitcoin is adopted and put into practice... but even with bitcoin at a quadrillion dollars and absorbing all of the monetary value, from that chart, it shows bitcoin would ONLY be worth 100x the value of gold at its theoretical max, even though I like to say bitcoin is 1,000x the value of gold.. I suppose another way of getting there would be to suggest that gold is only worth $1 trillion rather than being worth $12 trillion, and that would suggest that by the time we really get down to the value of gold and shave out its monetary premium, then its industrial, jewelry value would thereafter ONLY be worth $1 trillion and bitcoin would be worth $1 quadrillion.. and sure even that seems like a stretch from Croesus's statement of facts regarding current monetary value. That fork is just a fantasy... desire to create drama where no drama exists. Bitcoin is not going to fork merely because some people (even influential OG bitcoiners) are "upset" (or "mad as hell") about dickbutts on the blockchain... they cannot do anything about it. Dumb fucks.. (am I calling Adam Back, Luke Dasher, Jimmy Song, Tuur Demeester dumb/emotional fucks? oh what blasphemy!! Where is satoshi? is he a scared-cat too? speaking of cats)Journey of Bitcoin in 2009 to 2022. * in January 2009 - March 2010 BTC was basically nothing. * May 2010 BTC price was: 0.08$. * April 2011 BTC price was: 1$. * November 2011 BTC price was: 2$. * July 1, 2012 BTC price was: 15.25$. * August 18, 2012 BTC price was: 10.50$. * October 2013 BTC price was: 196.02$. * November 2013 BTC price was: 1,154.93$. * December 2013 BTC price was: 744.17$. * January 2014 BTC price was: 841.49$. * March 2014 BTC price was: 472.48$. * May 2014 BTC price was: 612.13$. * July 2014 BTC price was: 565.57$. * September 2014 BTC price was: 376.08$. * October 2014 BTC price was: 343.56$. * December 2014 BTC price was: 309.9$. * January 2015 BTC price was: 247.26$. * March 2015 BTC price was: 226.94$. * May 2015 BTC price was: 233.33$. * July 2011 BTC price was: 286.74$. * September 2015 BTC price was: 238.06$. * October 2015 BTC price was: 327.58$. * November 2015 BTC price was: 375.2$. * December 2015 BTC price was: 424.96$. * January 2016 BTC price was: 378.17$. * March 2016 BTC price was: 414.46$. * May 2016 BTC price was: 537.23$. * July 2016 BTC price was: 635.59$. * September 2016 BTC price was: 604.52$. * October 2016 BTC price was: 693.9$. * November 2016 BTC price was: 731.64$. * December 2016 BTC price was: 952.46$. * January 2017 BTC price was: 921.35$. * February 2017 BTC price was: 1,189.95$. * March 2017 BTC price was: 1,048.86$. * April 2017 BTC price was: 1,311.59$. * May 2017 BTC price was: 2,170.98$. * June 2017 BTC price was: 2,547.32$. * July 2017 BTC price was: 2,718.62$. * August 2017 BTC price was: 4,676.14$. * September 2017 BTC price was: 4,207.82$. * October 2017 BTC price was: 6,130.56$. * December 2017 BTC price was: 13,062.15$ * January 2018 BTC price was: 9,914.47$. * February 2018 BTC price was: 10,903.02$. * March 2018 BTC price was: 6,970.36$. * April 2018 BTC price was: 9,268.72$. * July 2018 BTC price was: 8,166.39$. * August 2018 BTC price was: 6,938.51$. * September 2018 BTC price was: 6,576.61$. * November 2018 BTC price was: 3,952.45$. * January 2019 BTC price was: 3,441.03$. * April 2019 BTC price was: 5,151.43$. * May 2019 BTC price was: 8,287.04$. * June 2019 BTC price was: 12,024.08$. * July 2019 BTC price was: 9,572.74$. * September 2019 BTC price was: 8,085.71$. * October 2019 BTC price was: 9,226$. * December 2019 BTC price was: 7,251.28$. * January 2020 BTC price was: 9,545.08$. * March 2020 BTC price was: 6,483.74$. * April 2020 price was: 8,773.11$. * June 2020 price was: 9,188.06$. * August 2020 BTC price was: 11,657$. * September 2020 BTC price was: 10,764.28$. * October 2020 BTC price was: 13,573.71$. * November 2020 BTC price was: 18,114.41$. * December 2020 BTC price was: 28,768.84$. * January 01, 2021 BTC price was: 28,994.01$. * January 10, 2021 BTC price was: 40,254.22$. * January 15, 2021 BTC price was: 39,156.71$. * January 20, 2021 BTC price was: 36,050.11$. * February 01, 2021 BTC price was: 33,114.58$. * February 15, 2021 BTC price was: 48,696.54$. * February 22, 2021 BTC price was: 57,539.94$. * July 20, 2021 BTC price was: 29,800$. * September 06, 2021 BTC price was: 52,600$. * September 28, 2021 BTC price was: 41,000$. * October 20, 2021 BTC price was: 65,990$. * November 08, BTC price was: 69,000$. * December 04, 2021 BTC price was: 49,200$. * December 17, 2021 BTC price was: 42,000$. * December 23, 2021 BTC price was: 49,000$. * January 2022 BTC price was: 45,871.07$. * May 2022 BTC price was: 40,040.17$. * July 2022 BTC price was: 24,678$. * August 2022 BTC price was: 25,219$. * November 2022 BTC price was: 21,486.08$. * December 2022 BTC price was: 18,383.19$.
April 2013 was quite significant as the price of bitcoin rose to ~US$250 . I remember this because I finally found an exchange and deposited money into it only to watch bitcoin rise significantly while I tried to buy enough to purchase the miner i wanted. My bids kept getting left in the dust until I just gave up and waited. Luckily it came back down significantly that time. Yes... I had similar thoughts regarding some price points being missing or inaccurate in terms of what BTC prices might have been doing during that time, which also begs the question regarding methodology for the numbers that are depicted (to the extent that they matter, or are representative of anything important or that they might just be contributing to meaningless clutter.. or showing various inaccuracies based on their seemingly incoherent presentation)
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Biodom
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February 17, 2023, 05:23:29 PM |
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Nice to see a formal verification of what I was casually talking about on multiple occasions.
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JayJuanGee
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ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin
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February 17, 2023, 05:47:32 PM |
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Nice to see a formal verification of what I was casually talking about on multiple occasions. Yeah.. but you still failed/refused to either stick with the actual hypothetical or to change it with some kinds of specifics. Therefore, you have not addressed the issue. $100 per week budget starting from January 2014. When are you going to spend those building up $100 per week amounts? What are your striking points for your various purchases over the past 470 weeks, starting from January 2014? I am not saying that you won't do better because you are smarter than the normal normie.. however, we not talking about smart fucks like uie-pooie.. We are attempting to refer to a potential application of some kind of a principle that can generally be applicable to normies that would be better than DCA.. Come on. Go ahead. Do it. Do it Do it!!!! Give us some guidelines beyond vaguely suggesting that it could be possible to beat DCA if you happen to have 100hours per week to dedicate to study the matter.. blah blah blah.. so fucking what.. you beat DCA and you got 22 BTC rather than 20 BTC (with the same amount of dollar value put into it) but you spent 100 hours per week doing it. Do normies have that amount of time and abilities and are they smart enough? I say: NOT!!!!!!!  That's why start with DCA first as the default mode.. and then.. if you got's ur lil selfie some "special skills, abilities and circumstances" then you can start to branch out while keeping the basics, the foundations and the starting principles in mind... stay humble and stack sats.. blah blah blah.. matt odell
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bitebits
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Flippin' burgers since 1163.
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February 17, 2023, 05:55:28 PM |
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None of that negates any of the points that I had been making... Yes, we know that lump sum will beat DCA so long as you buy in a dipping period as compared to buying in a peaking period, so what else is new? Part of the issue for any normie remains whether they have a lump sum to invest in the first place, which an overwhelming majority of normies do not have any lump sum.. [...] There might be more 'normies' than you think over the next years/decades with a sudden lump sum amount to invest. The wealthy boomer generation is getting old. For those it is good to be educated what the most efficient deploy of capital into bitcoin is.
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philipma1957
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February 17, 2023, 05:57:42 PM |
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nah you would get tired of being endlessly blitzed on drugs.
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ChartBuddy
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February 17, 2023, 06:01:23 PM |
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vapourminer
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?
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nah you would get tired of being endlessly blitzed on drugs. youre right so leave it to professionals like us, we are all over that
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xhomerx10
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Today is Random Acts of Kindness Day (in the USA at least) and there's still plenty of time in the day to be spontaneously kind towards someone (other than yourself).
edit: I'd better clarify that there's nothing wrong in being kind to yourself - you might need it.
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JayJuanGee
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ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin
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February 17, 2023, 06:17:28 PM |
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None of that negates any of the points that I had been making... Yes, we know that lump sum will beat DCA so long as you buy in a dipping period as compared to buying in a peaking period, so what else is new? Part of the issue for any normie remains whether they have a lump sum to invest in the first place, which an overwhelming majority of normies do not have any lump sum.. [...] There might be more 'normies' than you think over the next years/decades with a sudden lump sum amount to invest. The wealthy boomer generation is getting old. For those it is good to be educated what the most efficient deploy of capital into bitcoin is. Nothing wrong with figuring out how to employ your strategies and deploy your capital in ways to supplement DCA.. If you read my earlier responsive post, you should see that I am not unfriendly to either lump summing and buying on dips to supplement DCA, but you cannot forget about the power of DCA.. even if you have a lump sum at your disposal. Let's say that you are somewhat new to BTC, and you have a $100k investment portfolio that you already established. So you have become convinced that some kind of a medium appropriation into bitcoin would be warranted, and so you saw JJG's (or whoever's) suggestion to consider anywhere between 1% and 25% as your starting point, so you decided (you are responsible for your own decision) to allocate 12.5% to BTC.. So if you do it right away, that 12.5% is $12,500, and if you reallocate and lump sum into bitcoin right away, then you are taking that $12,500 from some other areas of your portfolio that might have tax consequences and even other consequences that might concern you in regards to financial and psychological difficulties in terms of doing it all at once. Instead, you figured out a way that you could be more aggressive and establish your stake into bitcoin over 6 months or over 12 months.. and frankly you are much more comfortable in your ability to achieve such reallocation target in 12 months without having to suffer as much financially and/or psychologically. Think about it. There are a variety of factors, and sure you might have various assets that are allocated in such a way that you are not going to have tax consequences and you might even be able to liquidate some of your various assets, but the more that you try to create lump sums that are "available to uie pooie, the more that you are fucking with the hypothetical, because they hypothetical ONLY gives you $100 per week of cashflow that is coming in that would be available.. in order to attempt to figure out matters.. and yeah, maybe you inherited some money and you got a bonus, you closed a deal blah blah blah. So yeah, just like you said, there are ways that not only do you have a lump sum that has come available, it also is available in cash right now... yet even if you read my previous post and had understood what I was saying (which seems that you did not), you would still see that I had already suggested that a presumption would be to divide your surprise $12k lump sum that became available to you into three parts which would be 1/3 in DCA, 1/3 lump sum right away buying and 1/3 into buying on dips. Sure, as an adult with full discretion, you could choose to allocate differently with that $12k that comes available to you, and you read the study and you decide that it is best to put it all in right away without delay.. and surely, I am not unsympathetic to those kinds of leanings, because for sure currently, we are in a situation in which BTC prices are just barely testing the 200-week moving average, but they had been quite a distance below the 200-week moving average (even 35% below the 200-week moving average) for more than 8 months, so you are speaking to the choir to some extent when you are telling me that we are at historical low price point and that lump sum might well perform way the fuck better than DCA during times like this... but still even though I consider myself to be a normie in several ways, I am not any kind of normal normie when it comes to bitcoin since I have had my eyes glued to charts for more than 9 years and reading (and battling) on the topic for more than 9 years too... but is a newbie normie going to feel confident enough to put 100% of their purported $12k of surprise new cash into lump sum rather than allocating some of that value to DCA and buying on dips? I question those kinds of presumptions regarding what is a "newbie" normie.. .. that's for sure.
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ChartBuddy
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February 17, 2023, 07:01:17 PM |
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Biodom
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February 17, 2023, 07:36:32 PM Last edit: February 18, 2023, 05:30:22 AM by Biodom |
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@jjg...you are posting pure nonsense.
@bitebits reference analyzed ALL scenarios and the conclusion is there:
"LS consistently outperforms DCA across all time periods, short term and long term. The longer the time period, the more LS tends to outperform DCA."
You can't fight the math...but, of course, you will.
Hiding behind "normies" having no money, etc etc does not mean that what you peddle is correct. "Normies" have money, and if they don't, they could even borrow some against some property if they want to get a lump sum. I did it myself a couple times in the oughts. In fact, we both know that my LS strategy vastly outperfomed your DCA.
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JayJuanGee
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ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin
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February 17, 2023, 07:46:23 PM |
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@jjg...you are posting pure nonsense.
@bitebits reference analyzed ALL scenarios and the conclusion is there:
"LS consistently outperforms DCA across all time periods, short term and long term. The longer the time period, the more LS tends to outperform DCA."
You can't fight the math...but, of course, you will.
Hiding behind "normies" having no money, etc etc does not mean that what you peddle is correct. "Normies" have money, and if they don't, they could even borrow some against some property if they want to get a lump some. I did it myself a couple times in the oughts. In fact, we both know that my LS strategy vastly outperfomed your DCA.
I stand by my points. You are not making any new points, and you are also refusing to actually either work with the actual hypothetical that's in front of us (which is the $100 per week income starting from January 2014) or to provide specifics regarding at which point in time extra lump sum dollar amounts would be available (at the beginning of the investment period or at various points in the middle). You are also failing/refusing to deal with my already concession that the more sophisticated that you are (or the more time that you have to study the matter), then the more likely you can tweak to improve upon a strict DCA approach by employing lump sum buying and or buying on dips. In other words, you seem to be making up your own bullshit, attributing false issues to me and then saying: "lookie, lookie, I am the winner" blah blah blah.. It's not that I don't even like you, but you surely are not grappling with the actual employment of a system or attempting to make fair, reasonable and practical comparative applications with anything more than vague innuendos.. with some kind of seeming maniacal obsession of wanting to be right no matter what.. .
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ChartBuddy
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February 17, 2023, 08:01:17 PM |
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eXPHorizon
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But God is watching us. And He will judge us on...
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February 17, 2023, 08:22:39 PM Last edit: February 17, 2023, 08:35:36 PM by eXPHorizon |
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToHo29kD9GoA Light That Never Comes  Only the IQ above 300 get it Nah, you don't know me Lightning above and a fire below me You cannot catch me, cannot hold me You cannot stop, much less control me When it rains, it pours When the floodgates open, brace your shores That pressure don't care when it breaks your doors Say it's all you can take, better take some more almost there
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